Here's my thoughts on Saturday's Opening Day Program.
Weather Forecast: 69*F, Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up NJ-Bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
There's no better way to begin the season than with a winner, and I think I know who it's going to be in here. The 7, Just Ace, has run the best brisnet figures in the field on a consistent basis. His last three numbers have been a 71, 70, and 70. Only two other horses in the field have run at least that on the dirt even once. Moreover, he's got the ever-dangerous third-race-off-the-layoff angle, and trainer Patricia Farro hits at a solid 19% clip with those numbers. Just Ace is going to be tough to beat here, and will likely stamp his name as the first winner of 2015 at Monmouth Park.
Others to consider are the 8, Sandman Cometh, who ran a solid 72 figure in his last race, in February at Tampa Bay Downs, and the 2, Play it Again, who ran a set of improved numbers over the winter at Parx.
7- Just Ace (2/1)
8- Sandman Cometh (5/1)
2- Play it Again (8/1)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile and 70 Yards, Dirt
Two horses stood out to me on paper in this race, both Maryland invaders: the 1, Bo Badger, and the 4, Marvelous Chester. I eventually decided to go with the 10-year-old veteran, Marvelous Chester, in here. He has a slight edge in his figures, earning two 76s in his last two starts in Maryland, and possesses some early speed in a race that is completely devoid of it. As long as jockey Armando Ayuso recognizes that fact, there is a good chance that Chester will walk to the lead and not look back. It would be cool to see a veteran like Chester win, regardless--Saturday will be his 81st career start.
Bo Badger can certainly win, as well--he had a solid workout on April 27 at Monmouth in preparation for the season, and his figures this winter in Maryland were pretty good. At a 10/1 morning line, he may be one to consider if the price is right.
The 6, Van Fraassen, is trained by David Jacobson, always an angle to consider, although a 2/1 morning line may be overselling his virtues, while the 7, Monroe Court, was consistent at this level at Tampa Bay Downs in the winter.
4- Marvelous Chester (4/1)
1- Bo Badger (10/1)
6- Van Fraassen (2/1)
Race 3: Claiming $40,000 (N/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I look toward the coupled entry, the 1, Fiesta Rose, and the 1A, Extreme Excess. I am willing to toss Fiesta Rose's last race, on April 4 at Tampa Bay Downs, as she was likely over her head in that race in stakes company. She totally backed up during a fast paced-duel, and was eased up late, beaten 48 1/2 lengths. Before that, she had never backed down during a duel before, never having an easy time on the lead, yet sporting a record of 5-2-3-0 in his previous races. Taking a sharp drop in class here, she should hang around till the end, and if she's not winning, she'll at least be close.
The 7, My Little Darlings, has the best last out figure of anyone in the field, with an 86, and also employs the riding services of the likable Jersey Joe Bravo. And while her last start looks impressive, having dueled the whole way around, only to miss by 3/4 of a length, that was at a mile, and the pace was not that fast. Who knows how she'll hold up against a faster pace at a shorter distance? Being the likely favorite, I'll look elsewhere, and take Fiesta Rose.
1- Fiesta Rose/1A- Extreme Excess (7/2)
7- My Little Darlings (2/1)
6- Offlee Sheikh (4/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3 yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
This low-level maiden claiming race is a matter of who doesn't want it the least. On paper, the 2, Indian Fighter looks much the best. Two out of his last three starts tower over the rest of the field, with an 86 and an 84 figure. Furthermore, he's got speed from post position 2, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at 25% with shippers.
There is one issue of mild concern, however. Just two starts ago, Indian Fighter was racing in maiden special weight company at Laurel. After running a disappointing fifth there, he was dropped to the $50,000 maiden claiming level at Aqueduct. Understandable in that case. Why, then, after running well for that price, is he being dropped into a $25,000 maiden claiming? After all, there's no shortage of $50,000 maiden claimings at either Belmont or Monmouth. I mean, maybe I'm just reading too much into this, and he'll coast, but I'm not sure what kind of shape he's in if he's taking that much of a drop in class. Buyer beware, I say.
Should he disappoint, I look toward the 10, Splitter, who ran three increasingly-improving figures at Gulfstream over the winter, and the 8, Antoine's, who was solid at this level at Tampa over the winter.
2- Indian Fighter (2/1)
10- Splitter (5/1)
8- Antoine's (10/1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
In my opinion, this race does not require much imagination, as the 2, Village Warrior, appears to be a standout. His races over the winter at Aqueduct were superior to anyone else's in the field, running figures of 100, 99, and 89. He also was a solid second in the Evening Attire Stakes back in February at Aqueduct. No one else in the field has been able to run that fast consistently. Being owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher doesn't hurt.
Because Village Warrior will likely be a big enough favorite that he'll be a bad win bet, I'll look toward horses to run under him to complete the exacta. My two big horses in that regard are the 4, Box Office, who consistently runs numbers in the high 80s, and is trained by the reliable Jason Servis, and the 7, Percussion, who runs similar figures.
2- Village Warrior (8/5)
7- Percussion (4/1)
4- Box Office (5/1)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I will take the 1, Charlesbrecknridge, here. His first start at Keeneland, on April 17, was a promising one. He broke slowly, rushed himself back into contention, and only missed by 1/2 length, earning an 84 brisnet figure first out. Considering he ran that great first time out, and ran that kind of figure, it's likely that he'll improve with a good break. At a 5/1 morning line, the odds should be good.
The morning line favorite, at 2/1, is the 7, Comic Bird, who can certainly win, too--he ran two solid figures at Oaklawn over the winter, and had two impressive workouts at Delaware in preparation for this meet. He may also be the first Arkansas-bred to be the favorite in a race at Monmouth Park. Watch for him, too.
1- Charlesbrecknridge (5/1)
7- Comic Bird (2/1)
2- Rare (5/1)
Race 7: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
This is a typical field for a New Jersey-bred allowance race: big, wide-open, and a race that I wish was in one of the pick 5s. Regardless, it was a difficult race to handicap, but I eventually settled on the 5, Behr in the Woods. In his last start, on April 18 at Parx, he made a solid closing rally at a similar level, finishing second by 3/4 of a length. The 92 figure he earned in that race marks the best in the field, and I would imagine he'll repeat that number here.
Also ones to watch are the 7, Oak Bluffs, who consistently runs numbers in the 80s, and is trained by the ever-dangerous Jamie Ness, and the 1, What the Chub, who will hope to duplicate his big gate-to-wire score at Penn National in his last start.
5- Behr in the Woods (7/2)
7- Oak Bluffs (5/2)
1- What the Chub (12/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (N/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The grass season begins with this race, an 11-horse affair to begin the late pick 5. This race appears to run through three horses--the 1, Stableford, the 9, Broadway Zen, and the 10, Pirradazis. I wound up going with Broadway Zen, who is the only one in the field to consistently show speed. Furthermore, his last two figures were an 80 and a 77, two of the best in the field. There's a good chance that he'll be able to take the lead early on and wire this bunch.
Stableford, the 1, has the best last out-figure in the race, with an 83, but he has come in the top three only once in his last eight starts. Pirradazis, meanwhile, has not been able to crack the 78 ceiling lately, and that may prove to be a cut below these.
9- Broadway Zen (3/1)
10- Pirradazis (9/2)
1- Stableford (4/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a solid field of allowance fillies and mares going six furlongs to kick off the late pick 4. While both the 3, Misszippityslewda, and the 4, Liberty Fuze. I decided to go with Misszippityslewda, who ran four tremendous figures at Aqueduct during the winter: 88, 92, 97 and 92. She's also trained by David Jacobson, who had a great season last year at Monmouth, and likely has cranked her--and all his horses--up for a Monmouth campaign this summer.
Also watch for the aforementioned Liberty Fuze, who ran two gret race over the winter at Aqueduct--including one win by 12 lengths--but may get involved in a duel with several of the speed horses from her outside. Misszippityslewda, on the other hand, is not totally speed-depedent, and may be able to sit off the duel and pick up the pieces late.
3- Misszippityslewda (8/5)
4- Liberty Fuze (2/1)
5- Casual Elegance (8/1)
Race 10: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
If the 1A, Treasury Devil, draws in off the also-eligible list, he looks to be very tough to beat, despite his outside post position. His last three figures are an 85, 93, and 90, which are generally the best in the field by a longshot. Despite his long layoff, trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at a solid 24% clip with horses off a 46-90 day break, which bodes well for a good comeback win.
Should Treasury Devil not draw in, I'll take the 6, Hyman Roth. His last race at Tampa was a textbook win--stalking the pace, and then blowing by for the win. His 86 number is the best last-out figure in the race, and the $16,000 should fit him very well. At 6/1, he should be a very good bet.
1A- Treasury Devil (4/1)
6- Hyman Roth (6/1)
9- Azure Dragon (6/1)
Race 11: Decathlon Stakes, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's the feature race on Opening Day, and drew a solid field of 14 hard-knocking sprinters. There's easily six or seven horses who can logically win this race, and whoever you like, you'll get a good price if the field stays intact.
After much waffling, I wound up going with the 12, Piquant. He's won three straight races, including the Peeping Tom Stakes at Aqueduct. His 99 figure is one of the best last-out number in the field, albeit by only a few digits. He may have an outside post, but that hasn't detracted him before--he won that Peeping Tom Stakes from post position 12. He's my pick to win the first stakes of the Monmouth season, and at 6/1, he'll be a good bet.
Others to consider include the 3, Moments Notiz, the venerable David Jacobson trainee who ran well last out at Aqueduct, the 4, Favorite Tale, who won the Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx last year, albeit over a very speed-favoring track, the 8, King Henry, who narrowly missed in a few races at Laurel, the 10, AP Indian, who is the most likely to take the early lead, and the 11, Javerre, who has the best last-out figure in the race, with a 102.
12- Piquant (6/1)
10- A.P. Indian (6/1)
4- Favorite Tale (5/1)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The nightcap on Opening Day is a wide-open race, too. I went with the 9, Kid Gallivan, who ran two great races at Gulfstream over the winter, and has some of the best numbers in the field. I am leery of the morning line favorite, the 4, Stevie's Moonshot, coming off a year layoff and taking a drop to maiden claiming from maiden special weight company. The 8, Strike 'Em Down, has run some great races, too, but is 0-10 lifetime, never a good sign.
9- Kid Gallivan (4/1)
8- Strike 'Em Down (5/1)
1- Moonlight Party (12/1)
The first race tomorrow is at 12:50 PM EDT, with the featured 11th race going off at about 5:43 PM. Good luck, everyone!
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