While the Monmouth Park higher-ups are likely having dreams of American Pharaoh winning the Haskell, following his dominating score in the Preakness, there will be racing Sunday in Oceanport. We got 11 races on tap, so let's get started...
Weather Forecast: 81*F, Thunderstorms
We dodged the bullet of rain yesterday, but today, there will likely be an off-track thanks to some overnight rain. Picks for dirt and grass are here, as such...
Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n2L) 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Nothing terribly interesting in the opener, as Peter Castleboy's recent figures at Gulfstream Park (83 and 84, respectively, two and three back) would blow this field away. Even his rating last out, 73, would likely get the job done here, and the combination of Monmouth-ready Eddie Broome and the hot jockey Abel Castellano helps his case.
5- Peter Castleboy (8/5)
2- Improvised Brush (5/2)
6- Pot Roast (9/2)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
It only took his connections thirteen losing starts for Fictionalcharacter's connections to get him out of his personal hell known as New York, and ship him to Monmouth to compete at the lowest tag he ever has. Regardless, he looks much the best: he's run second twice in his last four, and has run numbers of 68, 70, and 71. Meanwhile, I am not sure if the rest of the horses he is facing even have four legs each. I will have to check the post parade to confirm that.
Fictionalcharacter's not much, but in this one, he's a standout. If he's an 8/5 morning line, however, don't get excited about his win value.
2- Fictionalcharacter (8/5)
1- Golden Bird (3/1)
7- Thenewmanintown (6/1)
P.S. when you select a horse who is 0-28 lifetime for third, you can tell this is not an all-star bunch. I'll stop piling on here and move on to the next one.
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
You might mistake Monmouth for the Meadowlands, with them running so many races at one mile early in the card. But I digress.
Anyway, I'll take the 2, Miss Wilby, in here. In her last race, going a mile at Gulfstream, she sat a great trip behind duelers, and got up to win by 3/4 of a length. She ran an 87 in that one, the second-best last-out figure in the race, and her previous numbers of 90 and 88 indicate consistent, solid form.
Should Miss Wilby falter, my top alternative is Calamity Kate, who ran a strong 89 while finishing second to the splashtastic Condo Commando in the Demosielle, but hasn't run since. The only question is how she does off the long layoff.
2- Miss Wilby (3/1)
4- Calamity Kate (2/1)
3- Dragonberry (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a full, wide-open field of claimers here going 3/4 of a mile. I select the 10, Souperion, who ran some of the best numbers in the field this winter at Tampa, earning a 69, a 74, and a 77 in her last three. She's making the switch from grass to dirt in this one, which should be a benefit to her, and trainer Tom McCooey hits at 23% with shippers.
Also one to consider at a price is the 2, Callmewhachuwant, who runs consistently steady figures, but hasn't won in, roughly, a million years. I can definitely see her clunking up for some exotic placing, however, so keep her in mind. Also ones to consider are the 8, Rocket Dee, who ran great over the Monmouth track last year, the 9, So Frank, with the training of the hot Dennis Ward and the riding of the hot Andre Worrie, and, at a price, the 4, Pica Pica, whose best is only a few ticks below what it takes to win this one. If no one else fires, she could be the one to win it at big odds.
10- Souparion (3/1)
2- Callmewhachuwant (8/1)
8- Rocket Dee (7/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
As I mentioned in the previous post, Dennis Ward's been having a good training season, going 2-for-5 thus far. He's sending out my pick in this one, the 8, Harumi, who has the riding of Paco Lopez to go along with Ward. She didn't run too badly last out, chasing the winner last out to earn a field-best number of 64. I expect a similar run here, but hopefully this time with the part of her passing by to win.
Be Smitten doesn't look too bad either, earning a 63 last out in her first start at Pimlico. She certainly has room to improve here.
And beware of betting the 6, Confrontational, at 5/2 odds. In her last start, on Opening Day here, she was beaten a dismal 16 lengths with no real excuse.
8- Harumi (2/1)
7- Be Smitten (9/2)
2- Hadassa Babe (5/1)
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
My selection on both dirt and grass is the 6, Wildcat Runner. I am willing to discount his last race, as he has since returned to the worktab, working an OK :50.3 here at Monmouth on May 10. If anything, it means that he was able to adequately bounce back from whatever plagued him in his last at Gulfstream, and his previous form saw him run two figures on grass of 71 and 72, putting him as the apparent best in the bunch. He also displayed early speed, so if that's an indication, he should be able to grab the early lead and not look back. In his one dirt start in his PPs, he ran an 81 at Gulfstream, earning it with a terrific closing rally. It shows that he has form on both surfaces, and should execute it well.
Grass:
6- Wildcat Runner (5/2)
9- Wall Street (4/1)
5- Knight at Di Disco (6/1)
Dirt:
6- Wildcat Runner
3- Silent Critic
2- Constantine
Race 7: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Whenever a horse has both good speed figures and early speed, that's a sign that they're a good bet. When the horse is 7/2, that makes it even more appealing. Such is the situation with the 8, Arnhem. Her last race, which earned an 85 brisnet figure, is indictive of a big effort coming here. If she didn't have the far outside post, she would look even better, but as is she looks to be very sharp.
My other selections are the 7, Flashy Zee, who should benefit from a big drop in class, and the 4, Chippette, who came close a bunch of times over the winter at Tampa, and has to be considered for exotic placings.
8- Arnhem (7/2)
7- Flashy Zee (3/1)
4- Chippette (6/1)
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
My grass selection to begin the late pick 4 here is the 2, Deep Consideration. He ran steadily improving figures at Gulfstream over the winter, most recently earning a solid 80 while just missing near the lead. He has speed on the inside, so he should get some good placement and be able to score, especially in a field that is as inexperienced as this one is.
On the dirt, I will select the 9, Leflore County, who ran good figures on the dirt over the winter at Oaklawn and Keeneland. He ran a solid 84 at Oaklawn over a muddy track, which he will likely encounter should he compete in a dirt race today. His trainer, Bobby Dibona, also claimed him out of his last, and he hits at 20% with that angle. Leflore County has all the makings of a good play should the race be moved to dirt.
Grass:
2- Deep Consideration (3/1)
8- Warrior's Instinct (5/1)
5- Fleafit Dryer (7/2)
Dirt:
9- Leflore County
8- Warrior's Instinct
2- Deep Consideration
Race 9: Claiming $12,500 (n2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Look no further than the first horse you see to find my selection. The 1, Nicki Flash, has the best last-out number on dirt by a longshot, earning an 84 last time on dirt at Delaware Park last August. Nobody else in the field even sniffs those numbers. While her last two races at Gulfstream, both in turf sprints, were not impressive, she appears to have since recovered with a set of good workouts at Monmouth. Both trainer Eddie Plesa and jockey Angel Serpa have had slow starts to the Monmouth season, and I think this will be the horse that will jump-start their year at the Jersey shore.
Also of note are the 4, Twisted Kick, who had a big gate-to-wire score here on Opening Day, and Scuba Sue, the 8, who disappointed last out but has run big numbers in the past.
1- Nicki Flash (5/2)
4- Twisted Kick (7/2)
8- Scuba Sue (2/1)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
The Sunday feature is a very wide-open affair, but eventually I settled on the 4, Scorpion Aly. She had a great meet at Gulfstream, running very good figures, and last out in Pimlico, she regressed to a 79 (down from the mid-80s of the winter). However, it was still a strong effort; as she was on the pace and wide throughout, only to just miss by a nose. I expect her to improve off that last race, and improvement would mean a victory.
If this race has to be transferred to dirt, I'll take the 11, Sunday Sonnet, as she appears to be the only one in the bunch to have shown even an iota of good dirt form recently. It's a field made for grass, that's for "shore".
Grass:
4- Scorpion Aly (7/2)
10- Sawyer (9/2)
1- Zloty (3/1)
Dirt:
11- Sunday Sonnet
4- Scorpion Aly
7- Queen Corey
Race 11: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll wrap up the weekend by taking the 3, Our Posse. In his last start, he made a solid closing rally at Parx to just get up for second, making his second consecutive figure in the mid-to-high 60s, which should win this race.
If he can't win this one, I'll take the 2, Yourthekingjimmy, who, despite his mis-spelled name, ran some decent races at Aqueduct over the winter, along with the 7, Larry Boy, with the ever-dangerous David Jacobson-Andre Worrie duo.
3- Our Posse (7/2)
7- Larry Boy (5/2)
2- Yourthekingjimmy (3/1)
That's my thoughts on Sunday's card. As always, the first race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Best of luck to everyone playing.
No comments:
Post a Comment