It's Preakness Day at Pimlico, but that doesn't mean that the party stops at Monmouth. We got 12 races on the Saturday program, highlighted by the $100,000 Red Bank Stakes. Let's get started on the card.
Weather Forecast: 81*F, Thunderstorms
Note that, because of the threat of rain Saturday, I'll be making picks for dirt as well for the grass races. I expect that the Red Bank will stay on regardless, but we will see.
Race 1: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Don't let the small field fool you--despite the fact that there's only six horses, it's a wide-open race on paper. I will go with the 4, Rocket Man Richie, to begin the card. He won his maiden outing in gate-to-wire fashion at Gulfstream Park, and held on well in his last two starts as well. With the track tilting toward speed as of late, there's a chance that he'll be able to withstand a potential duel and get the job done.
Should the pace melt down (which is possible, with Little Tom and Gris Hombre also speedsters), the 5, Alpha Dude, could take advantage, with his stalking style. The 2, Pelekas Beach, has great brisnet figures--including a field-best 84 last out--but I'm wary of him dropping from allowance conditions all the way down to n/w2x claiming. Buyer beware.
4- Rocket Man Richie (2/1)
2- Pelekas Beach (5/2)
5- Alpha Dude (5/2)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-Bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
When the morning line favorite in a race is a coupled entry consisting of a first-time starter and a horse who hasn't run since September, you know it's not the strongest of fields. Regardless, it's still here, and a race where I think I can find a solid winner.
That horse is the 5, Our Hazel. Her figure of 67 is the second-best last-out figure in the bunch, and has recent good form at Parx. Of course, it's hard to be excited about a five-year-old maiden in any circumstances, but nobody else has run recently, if at all, so I'll take the fresher horse in this spot.
Should the 6, Easy Landing, return to her good form at Monmouth and Parx last year, she'll be dangerous, too. In her last start, at Parx back in October, she ran a figure of 74, which would win this race fairly easily. The 4, Channel Surfing, ran a much-improved number in her last race back in August, and is sporting some good works coming into this race.
5- Our Hazel (4/1)
6- Easy Landing (9/2)
4- Channel Surfing (9/2)
Race 3: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This race marks my first strong opinion of the day, and it comes with the 5, Boss's Rules. Her last two figures, of 82 and 87, tower over anyone else in the field. Furthermore, she had shown a tendency to tire and drift out while going longer distances at Parx, and she may find six furlongs more to her liking. It would "shore" help out her chances if she managed to keep a straight path here.
Also worthy of note in here is the 2, Solitary, who will become the first horse to race twice at the Monmouth Park season, after she was defeated by a pole last Saturday. I don't expect much better out of her here.
5- Boss's Rules (5/2)
1- Midnightinpositano (7/2)
4- Flashy Brass (3/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile and 70 Yards
There's another standout at (hopefully) a good price in this spot. The 7, Idontknowgoaskanni, ships up from Tampa for this race, and despite her string of seconds, she appears to be the one to beat by far. She's what's known as a "triple fig" in speed handicapping lingo; that is, all three of her last races are better than anyone else's last three. Her last three brisnet figures are an 80, a 78, and a 74. Nobody else has run better than a 72 in any of their last three. As long as Idontknowgoaskanni keeps up her form, she should win. A 5/2 morning line makes her appealing, but I doubt she'll be that high.
Should Idontknowgoaskanni regress (which would be a surprise), the most likely alternatives are the 9, Echale Salista, who has shown a lot of ability on grass and could transfer it to dirt, and the 6, Sandbag, who was consistently OK at Tampa over the winter. But don't bet on that happening; Idontknowgoaskanni looks much the best.
7- Idontknowgoaskanni (5/2)
9- Echale Salista (3/1)
6- Sandbag (6/1)
Race 5- Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
After two races with truly "shore things", we are back to a handicapping puzzle with the final leg of the early pick 5. Should the race stay on the grass, I will select the 8, Slander. In her last start, which was off a four-month layoff at Tampa, she turned in an impressive rally from the back of the pack, only to miss by a neck. Coming into this spot fresher, I expect a bigger effort out of her, and a bigger effort should translate to a victory.
The 2, Love That Kelly, is also one to consider, as she's coming off two great races at Pimlico this spring, along with the 10, Precious Paula, who was solid over the winter at Tampa.
If the race gets washed off the grass, I'll take the 4, Mystical Rain (how appropriate), as she's the only one in here with established dirt form. She also sports a lifetime best of 77 over an wet track, which would probably win this one if it was on the dirt.
Grass:
8- Slander (5/1)
2- Love That Kelly (3/1)
10- Precious Paula (8/1)
Dirt:
4- Mystical Rain
8- Slander
7- Ginny G
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
The David Jacobson-Andre Worrie combination was money last weekend, and they return with the likely winner of this race: the 4, North Ocean. Last time out at Aqueduct, he earned an impressive brisnet figure of 92 while winning gate-to-wire. He's run up to a 107 in the past, which would easily win this one, Jacobson's also hitting at 29% first off the claim, which only bolsters his case in this one.
Also of note are the 7, Gypsy Baron, who ran well last fall in Maryland, and hopes to rebound off a dismal 2015 debut, and the 5, School on a Hill, who hopes to stretch out his solid sprinting speed.
4- North Ocean (2/1)
7- Gypsy Baron (4/1)
5- School on a Hill (9/2)
Race 7: Claiming $20,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
It's a wide-open contest on both dirt and grass here, so it'll be interesting even if it gets washed away. On grass, my pick is the 2, Cut to Order, who was very easily two weeks ago at Tampa, drawing off to win by seven lengths. Also, Jamie Ness trains this one, and he hits at a 29% clip with shippers. Assuming he runs back to his last race, Cut to Order should win this one.
Cut to Order has shown ability over dirt before, but I'll be more inclined to take the 9, Paddington Express, should this one be run on the main track. He's won two out of his last three on the dirt, and has a set of steadily improving figures on that surface, cumulating with an 82 in his most recent effort. Both halves of the coupled entry--the 1, Rock Warrior, and the 1A, It's Charlie Again--are both better suited for dirt, and while neither one would be a likely favorite in a normal dirt contest, they'd be candidates in a watered-down off-the-grass event.
Grass:
2- Cut to Order (3/1)
6- Delta Golf Alpha (10/1)
3- Seeking Harmony (12/1)
Dirt:
9- Paddington Express
1- Rock Warrior/1A- It's Charlie Again
2- Cut to Order
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
Two horses jump out at me in this race: the 4, Love Comes to Town, and the 11, Pinkout. Both horses look great on paper, and are the only two who have a serious chance of winning this race, in my opinion. What concerns me about Pinkout, however, is that she broke her maiden in her last race, and in her eleventh try. Now, maybe she finally "learned how to win", so to speak, and will win this one anyway, but I wouldn't count on her winning two in a row after establishing herself as a professional maiden, at least until recently.
Meanwhile, the 4, Love Came to Town, has similar figures to Pinkout, but is more lightly raced (this will be only her fifth career start), and is making her third start of the layoff, a common indicator of an improved performance. Don't discount either one, however, and if you're playing the late pick 5, I would suggest using both in equal strength.
4- Love Came to Town (4/1)
11- Pinkout (5/1)
8- Read All About It (8/1)
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's another field with a lot of horses who are either first-time starters or coming off of long layoffs. As such, I will select one of the fillies in this field who has recent races: the 7, Thepartyneverends. In her last two dirt races, she earned brisnet figures of 86 and 84, which are the best in the field by a solid margin. Trainer Todd Pletcher, as one of the best in the country, always has to be respected, She also possesses a fair amount of early speed, so she could jump out early and take them gate-to-wire.
The 4, Rolling Wind, has similar speed, but hasn't raced since September. The 8, She's All Business, is a first-time starter, but has been working well in preparation for her debut.
7- Thepartyneverends (5/2)
8- She's All Business (4/1)
4- Rolling Wind (3/1)
Race 10: Red Bank Stakes, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
An underwhelming field of seven has been assembled for the first graded stakes of the Monmouth season, scheduled to go one mile on the grass. I'll select the 4, Rose Brier, to have the honor of being the first graded stakes winner of the year. He ran pretty well in his first start off a two-month layoff at Keeneland last time out, competing against a field similar to this one. He came in third, missing by only a neck, while running a brisnet figure of 98. That's the best last-out figure in the race, and he's also run up to a 100 in the past. He's the most likely winner here, as far as I'm concerned.
Also ones to watch here are the 6, Heart to Heart, who has lots of early speed, and the 5, Slim Shadey, who ran well at Belmont last out first off the layoff.
Also, why are both Red Vine and Edge of Reality listed as main-track-onlys? They'd certainly make the grass version of this race way more interesting.
Grass:
4- Rose Brier (3/1)
6- Heart to Heart (2/1)
5- Slim Shadey (6/1)
Dirt:
10- Red Vine
5- Slim Shadey
8- Adirondack King
Race 11: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The late double begins here, and I'll take the 7, Pennymine. She has the best numbers in the field, with an 83 and an 87 in her last two races, plus the training of David Jacobson and the riding of Paco Lopez. In a field where nobody has strong credentials, she marks the best alternative in the bunch, and is my pick to win this one.
7- Pennymine (5/2)
5- Legal Laura (9/2)
1- Guchi Gold (8/1)
Race 12: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I will close out my analysis of the card by talking about a horse that, on the surface, looks like a "shore thing", but has some flaws once one looks deeper. The 1, No More Strippers, appears to be much the best from a speed figure standpoint, running figures of 88, 82 and 84 in his last three. Clearly, this should make him much the best, right?
However, there are two flaws that prevent me from endorsing him more whole-heartedly. For one, his last workout over the Monmouth track was dismal: five furlongs in 1:07.0, which is plow-horse time. That was only a week ago, too, suggesting that workout may be indictive of his current form--i.e., bad. In addition, jockey Gabriel Saez has been having an ice-cold Monmouth meet, going 0-16. Now, by the time this one goes off, he may have snapped that streak, but I don't know if I'd bet on it. Buyer beware for anyone going with No More Strippers in here.
No one else in here really jumps out, so I will dispassionately select the 8, Artemus Paperboy, who ran some good races over the inner track at Aqueduct in the winter, and had a solid workout in preparation for this spot recently at Monmouth. The 6, Gintraker, is also one to watch, as he's got early speed and could make it effective cutting back from a route to a sprint.
8- Artemus Paperboy (3/1)
6- Gintraker (5/1)
1- No More Strippers (4/1)
Bonus Race: Preakness Stakes, 3yo, 1 3/16 Miles
The second jewel of the Triple Crown will be going off about five minutes after the finale at Monmouth, so stick around and check it out. My take is that American Pharaoh, the 1, is the most likely winner in here, off of three straight impressive races on the year. I'm not super-concerned about his inside draw, as I think he's adept enough to win from that hole anyway. Besides, the last horse to do it, Tabasco Cat in 1994, was probably on a talent level equal to American Pharaoh.
Now, if he was 7/5 or 3/2, he would be worth a win bet. But his morning line is 4/5, and I see the public betting him down to that level, or even 3/5 or 1/2. That would be, to put it mildly, completely insane, especially considering Firing Line, who almost beat him in the Kentucky Derby, will be a much better value.
Overall, I say AP is the most likely winner, but if he's odds-on, look elsewhere. If you want, you could play him on top of exactas and trifectas with the other horses coming from the Derby--who, in my mind, are the only ones with a shot.
1- American Pharaoh (4/5)
8- Firing Line (4/1)
4- Danzig Moon (15/1)
2- Dortmund (7/2)
The first race tomorrow at Monmouth is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck, everybody!
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