Twelve races are on tap for Memorial Day Sunday at Monmouth. Let's try to make some money on them.
Weather Forecast: 75*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Starter Optional Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
It's tough to have a strong opinion in this race, as almost everyone in it has shown a lot of ability at some point in their career, but none of them have shown it recently.
Without being really enthusiastic about it, I will select the 2, Disarm, who ran some nice races at Parx last fall, running brisnet figures of 99, 98, 94, and 90 in the process. I am willing to forgive his less-than-impressive last race, as it was in stakes company in the Claiming Crown Express. Based on the layoff he received after the race, it is entirely possible he was running in that race at less-than-100%, and has built up a worktab at Parx that makes me think that he's rounding back into shape. Furthermore, he's got early speed, and the inside post 2, so he could clear to the lead and use it to draw off to victory.
Other ones to consider are the 4, Anybodyreallyknow, who ran fast in Maryland over the winter, but was inexplicably dull in his last race at Pimlico, the 5, Right on Course, who has virtually the same PP line as Anybodyreallyknow, only he did his running in Florida, and the 6, Seek to Destroy, who has the dangerous David Jacobson-Paco Lopez combination. None of them would surprise me.
2- Disarm (3/1)
4- Anybodyreallyknow (3/1)
5- Right on Course (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
First of all, you may note that the first two races of the day are for older horses and at 5 1/2 furlongs. I just want to take this time to say that I'm no fan of races for older horses at less than 6 furlongs. That needed to be said.
Anyway, the 1, Hold Everything, is the 3/2 favorite in this race, despite doing little last time out--at the $12,500 level! In that race, he was on the pace three-wide, which would be notable if not for the fact that this was a very pronounced speed-favoring track. Despite going off favored, he flattened out badly to finish fifth. Now, two weeks later, he's entered for a pitiful $5,000, after being in for $7,500 more two weeks ago. Color me suspicious. I mean, maybe he's good enough that he'll jump out from post 1 and wire the field, but unless his figures were way, way better than anyone else's (spoiler alert: they're not), I'll look elsewhere.
I'll take the 4, Perfect Trippi, to be specific. He is coming off a long layoff, but in the fall at Aqueduct, he ran brisnet figures of 79, 78, and 81. Only Hold Everything and the 8, Joni's Wildcat, have run similar numbers in their last three starts. He was rather dull in his last effort, finishing seventh at Aqueduct in November, but he was extremely wide that day, so even to run a 79 under those conditions was pretty impressive. He's working well for this race, and he gets the hot jockey, in 30% Abel Castellano. At a 2/1 morning line, I'll take him, while the rest of the betting public flocks to Hold Everything.
4- Perfect Trippi (2/1)
8- Joni's Wildcat (6/1)
1- Hold Everything (3/2)
Race 3: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It may sound bizarre to select a horse who is 0-6 at Monmouth, and 0-11 on fast dirt tracks overall, but I'll take that chance on the 6, Wildcatpleasures. His last figures are some of the tops in the field, earning all numbers in the mid-to-high 80s down in Florida. He hasn't run on the dirt since January, but he had a terrific workout on May 16 at Monmouth, suggesting that he can handle the Monmouth dirt well.
Also one to think about is the 5, Gombey Dancer, who ran well at Gulfstream over the winter, running numbers as high as a 91.
6- Wildcatpleasures (9/5)
5- Gombey Dancer (5/2)
3- Get Creative (4/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Two horses stand out to me here: the 1A, Dia de Encanta, and the 4, Just Like Kaki. I will lean toward Dia de Encanta here, as she ran well in her first route effort last time out, running a 75 figure while pressing the pace wide and managing to hold on for third. This will be her third career start, her second in a route, and I think she has every right to improve in this spot.
Just Like Kaki has run great races before, too, but I'm slightly wary of the "eased" comment in her last race, more than four months ago at Gulfstream. Granted, she's been working steadily for her return, but I'd rather take the fresher horse in this spot instead.
1- Gemonade/1A- Dia de Encanta (2/1)
4- Just Like Kaki (5/2)
9- Silver Bouquet (8/1)
Race 5: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll wrap up the early pick 5 with the 6, Ryabinka. She has both the best last-out figure, with a 77 earned at Gulfstream last out, and the best two-back figure, with an 83. She had horrendous form as a two-year-old, getting beat consistently in stakes races, but appears to have turned a corner with her form, and is looking like much the best in here.
6- Ryabinka (3/1)
3- Chatt Hills (2/1)
7- Coral Beach (4/1)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
Here's a race that's an example of another pet peeve of mine: the fact that there are 14 horses, yet three also-eligibles. In other words, this could be a 12-horse field, but the rail settings make it so that there's only room for 11. I mean, this place is only running three days a week maximum. The track's handle increases drastically with every additional horse added to a race. Unless the grass has really been taking a beating, let the rail settings be normal. The more horses, the better.
Well, now that that rant is over, let's get to the race at hand. The 2, Casual Smile, looks like a standout. She's run three ascending figures: a 77 on February 25 at Gulfstream, an 82 on March 20 at Tampa, and most recently an 89 on April 19 at Aqueduct. All those numbers are tops in the field. Not to mention, she's trained Chad Brown, one of the most astute members of his profession on grass, and has been working well at Saratoga in preparation for this race. She'll be my play in here.
Also one to watch is the 9, Biamonte, who ran well at Gulfstream in the winter, but was less-than-impressive in her last two starts, and is also coming off a long layoff. Another to consider is the 6, Onus, who ran well in her first start on the grass at Keeneland, and has plenty of room to improve off that effort. Watch the board on her.
2- Casual Smile (7/2)
6- Onus (5/1)
9- Biamonte (5/1)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's not the finest of races to begin the Jersey Shore 6, but you can't ignore it if you want to play the sequence, so I will analyze it anyway.
I'll take the 3, Dontflashyourcash in here. He declined noticeably from his previous effort last time out, going from an 83 to a mediocre 68. However, that 68 is still the best last-out number in the field, and it was earned while racing wide the whole way. He still hung on to run a not-bad third, and in a race like this, "not bad" should be enough to get it done.
The 1, Total Joint, has run great figures in the past, but I'm concerned about his three consecutive declining numbers, including his last race at Gulfstream in which he was soundly beaten. He may bounce back, but I wouldn't bet him to win on that proposition.
3- Dontflashyourcash (7/2)
1- Total Joint (3/1)
4- Hunter Grey (20/1)
Race 8: Claiming $30,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
As of this writing, I have not looked at Monday's card, but I am already convinced that the 5, The Real McCoy, will be my best bet of the weekend. Her last start, on May 10 here at Monmouth, was one of the biggest I've seen all meet. She broke slowly, was way behind almost the whole way, and still rallied strongly down the stretch to miss by only a half-length, making up 15 1/2 lengths in the process. Furthermore, her figure of 81 is the best last-out number in the field by a large margin, and her overall form is better than anyone else. She's a pick 5 single to me.
5- The Real McCoy (7/2)
7- Eire En Pointe (3/1)
2- Forest Funds (5/2)
Race 9: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll take the 6, To the Flag, in this one. She's been running continually improving figures, peaking at a field-best 83 last out at Tampa. She's got early speed, but not enough so that she'll be burned on the early lead; rather she can sit off the pace and rally on by. She's no cinch, but a solid win bet, and a cornerstone of any pick 4 or pick 5 play.
Also ones to consider are the 3, Mongolian Honey, who has speed on the inside, and the 7, More Than Special, who ran some great figures last year on the synthetic track at Woodbine.
6- To the Flag (5/2)
3- Mongolian Honey (3/1)
7- More Than Special (7/2)'
Race 10: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
A wide open bunch of n/w2 horses will face the starter here, and in a race like this, I'll take a bit of a price--the 2, Eddie G. Both trainer Dennis Ward and jockey Andre Worrie have been having good seasons, and he took to the Monmouth grass well last out, He's run slowly escalating figures, earning a 73 in his last start, which isn't super-far off the high in the field. If he keeps improving, he could get the job done at a big price.
Should he respond well off the layoff, the 7, All Over Me, will be dangerous, but I'm not "shore" about a horse who hasn't run since December, and has been working terribly for this race. He may need a race. The 9, I Will, has been running decent figures at this level at Gulfstream, and is one to consider for exotics.
2- Eddie G (8/1)
9- I Will (8/1)
11- Gallant Pursuit (8/1)
Race 11: Monmouth Beach Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles
The Sunday feature drew a compact field of eight, all of whom have a decent shot of winning. I'll select the classiest entrant in the field--the 6, Got Lucky. She was the runner-up in two Kentucky Oaks preps last year, and only missed by three lengths in the Alabama last year at Saratoga. Her most recent figures, earned at Gulfstream over the winter, are the best in the field, at a 98, 94, and 92. She's working well for this race, trainer Todd Pletcher hits well at horses off a layoff, and I think all systems will be go for this race. She's my play.
Longshots to consider are the 4, Amblin Easy, who has been running well in allowance company at Parx, and the 8, Stiffed, a Jersey-bred who won twice at Monmouth last year.
6- Got Lucky (3/1)
4- Amblin Easy (12/1)
8- Stiffed (12/1)
Race 12: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
On the notably speed-biased track of May 10, the 1, I'mtrulyinthemood, was one of the few to rally and do well, coming from eight lengths back to finish second. Running on a fairer track, I'm not "shore" if he's a cinch, but at 6/1, he's definitely worth a play.
The 3, Keep the Canoli, has the best figures in the field, but is taking a steep drop in class and has been working slowly for this one. As the likely favorite, he probably won't be worth it.
1- I'mtrulyinthemood (6/1)
3- Keep the Canoli (2/1)
4- Bea Wildcat (9/2)
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