It's Memorial Day at Monmouth Park, which means 11 terrific races, great weather, and hopefully another great crowd and handle. Let's delve into the program.
Weather Forecast: 83*F, Partly Cloudy
It'll be fast and firm once again, as the Monmouth meet has so far been blessed by tremendous weather.
Race 1: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
I'll take the 1, Laghubaar, to begin this one, as he appears to be much faster on paper than the rest of the lineup. He's earned brisnet figures of 89, 89, and 87 in his last three, while only one other horse has earned as high as an 87 in their last three. He ran well last out at 7 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct, making a sweeping move to win, and his pace figures have shown he can either go for the lead and try to go gate-to-wire, or rate off the pace and make that same sweeping move. Not to mention, trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at an impressive 29% clip first start off of the claim. He should improve his percentage with this one.
The 4, Empower, has the second-best figures in the race by a clear-cut margin, and the 1-4 combination may be a good time to play an ice-cold exacta. Check the exacta probables.
The 5, Farmer Jones, has figures that are a cut below the top two, but he does have Paco in the saddle and some awesome workouts coming in. At an 8/5 morning line, however, his odds may be too low for my tastes.
1- Laghubaar (2/1)
4- Empower (5/2)
5- Farmer Jones (8/5)
Race 2: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile and 70 Yards
I'll go the fairly obvious route in here, and select the 6, Allstar. He ran well at Gulfstream over the winter, earning brisnet figures of 86 and 92 in his last two. He's got Paco up, who won three yesterday, to boot. I'm not thrilled with his workouts coming into this race, but I've been burned with horses who didn't look great based on their workouts coming into different races, only to see them win. Even if I have to take a short price, I'm not "shore" if I want Allstar to beat me here.
The 5, Calvello, ran very well at Parx in his last start, but jockey Ramon Moya and trainer Patricia Farro have not been having an especially great meet. Don't discount him completely, though, he can still get the job done at a price.
6- Allstar (2/1)
5- Calvello (4/1)
1- Lure of the South (5/2)
Race 3: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I am willing to discount the last race of the 3, Lookingoutforyou, as he was off the pace on a track that was tilting toward speed. Nonetheless, the figure he earned in that race of 77 is the best last-out number in the field, and his previous numbers of 89 and 80 would blow the field away. He's also got the dangerous trainer-jockey combination of David Jacobson and Andre Worrie, who win just about every race that they team up on. Furthermore, it's his second race off the layoff, and so he should improve off that last effort. He looks much the best in here.
Should he be, I don't know, abducted by aliens during the race, the 2, Brother Mark, made a decent closing rally in his last start, and so did the 5, Neilos. Their figures are good enough that they could win it if Lookingoutforyou doesn't fire for whatever reason.
3- Lookingoutforyou (2/1)
2- Brother Mark (9/2)
5- Neilos (8/1)
Race 4: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's a wide, wide-open field in the fourth, which is refreshing, as I don't expect value on my selections in the first three races.
Anyway, I'll take the 4, Double the Energy. She doesn't have the most early speed in here, but that may prove to be an asset. The morning line favorite, the 3, Indian Splendor, is a turf sprinter stretching out to a mile here. I can easily see Indian Splendor going out to a clear lead, wilting, and having Double the Energy, who has the best recent figures in the field, go past and score. At a 6/1 morning line, with a hot grass trainer, I'd be willing to venture a few dollars on that scenario.
The 9, Taty's Gold, also had great recent numbers, but is stretching out to a route from a sprint as well, and hasn't raced in more than a year. I'll pass on her for the win.
The 1, PJ's Enigma, ran strong numbers at Gulfstream over the winter, but didn't have a great kick in any of them, and is also stretching out.
Oh yeah, and this could've been a twelve horse field, but the rail settings make it so only ten can fit on the grass. Isn't that a shame?
4- Double the Energy (6/1)
9- Taty's Gold (4/1)
1- PJ's Enigma (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's never a safe bet betting a horse who's 0-8 lifetime in a maiden special weight, as they may prove to be chronic losers, but I'll take that risk with the 1, Have a Good Laugh. His numbers are simply better than the rest: his last three are 83, 91, and 88. Only the 5, Rare, has done that consistently in the past, and he's even worse than Have a Good Laugh, going 0-13 lifetime thus far. With the inside post, a good amount of early speed, and Trevor McCarthy riding, he's the most likely winner.
I want to like the 6, Charlesbrecknridge, as I bet him last time out, but he has shown an inability to break cleanly. If he can prove to me here that he can do that, I'll consider him more down the road, but until then, I can't endorse him with a liability like that.
1- Have a Good Laugh (5/2)
6- Charlesbrecknridge (9/2)
3- Tashreeh (2/1)
Race 6: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Memorial Day Jersey Shore 6 begins here, and I'll start it off with the 4, Hyman Roth. He didn't get the job done last time out, on Opening Day here at Monmouth, but was nonetheless close, missing by only 3/4 of a length in a blanket finish. He earned the co-best last out figure there, along with the 2, Discreet Duke, who is also exiting that race. He's earned figures in the low-to-high 80s all throughout the winter, something that no one else in the field can do consistently, and even if he duplicates his last out number, he's got a good chance of winning this one. An improvement, and he'll have it for "shore".
4- Hyman Roth (7/2)
2- Discreet Duke (3/1)
3- Saturday's For Fun (6/1)
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
A field of ten betting interests begins the pick 5 today, and I'll start it off with a horse whose last start is hard to ignore. The 10, James Alex, made up almost 16 lengths in his last start, closing ferociously in his last start at Parx to miss by only a neck. While his figures are not especially great, and he has the outside post, horses have been able to close in sprints recently at Monmouth. Plus, he's got Paco controlling the reins, who represents a jockey upgrade from Jorge Vargas, and he'll likely keep James Alex closer to the pace. If he does that, and uses the same closing rally as last time, he'll "shorely" win this one. He also has the edge of recency; that big race at Parx was in April of this year, and many of his competitors are making their first start of 2015 in this race.
The 4, Greed is Good, ran well in his first start of the year on Opening Day, just missing by a nose. An improvement off that race makes him dangerous. The 5, We B Jammin, ran great figures as a two-year-old last year, but hasn't run since last October.
10- James Alex (7/2)
4- Greed is Good (6/1)
5- We B Jammin (3/1)
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
Lots of early speed, plus proof that you can use that early speed to your advantage, is a formula that often results in victory. It's been working for the 6, Lasso, who has won four consecutive races, all of them on grass, all of them in gate-to-wire style. In fact, if you toss the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes, where he may have been outclassed, he's won six in a row on the grass. This is a horse with a ton of early speed, no one else to really challenge him for the lead, and great speed figures. He looks like the obvious pick.
Now, what if Lasso breaks slowly, or he's somehow outgunned for the lead, or he falls through a trapdoor on the grass down the backstretch? If I knew that was going to happen, I'd take the 5, Canzoni. He's consistent, usually running figures in the high 80s, and has run up to a 96 in the past. He's got good rating ability, so he'll be involved in the exotics, if nothing else. The 8, Chisled, has also shown a knack for running figures in a similar range, and could make a splash at a price.
6- Lasso (7/2)
5- Canzoni (9/2)
8- Chisled (15/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I loved the race that the 3, Little Hitman, ran last out on Opening Day. He rated off the pace, and hung on well, just missing the win as Oak Bluffs, who ran very well to close on a speed-favoring track, got up. That was his first race since September, and he earned an 84 brisnet figure. There's good reason to suggest that he can improve off that field, and with few others having run figures like that before, he's my pick to score here.
The 5, Light's Gone Wild, ran an even bigger figure first of the layoff, earning a 90 while setting an uncontested lead on a speed-favoring track. He could get clear again, but unless the track is speed-favoring again--and unless the track has been playing that way in recent days, and it hasn't been, don't assume it will be--he won't be able to get away with doing that again.
3- Little Hitman (2/1)
6- Candy Mine (15/1)
7- Perry M (4/1)
Race 10: Miss Liberty Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I will pick the queen of these listed stakes on the grass, the 6, Nellie Cashman, to win it here. She's a fixture in these types of races, and won one of them last time out, the Dahlia Stakes at Pimlico. She earned a 98 in that race, and consistently earns figures in the low-to-mid 90s. Forest Boyce ships in from Maryland to ride this one, and her stalking style is one that works in these types of races. A 4/1 morning line is more than a fair price, and she'll be where my money will land in this race.
Also ones to consider are the 8, Cushion, who ran well of the layoff at Aqueduct last out, and the 9, Tokyo Time, who ran two races in the 90s earlier in the year.
6- Nellie Cashman (4/1)
8- Cushion (7/2)
9- Tokyo Time (9/2)
Race 11: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
We come to the finale, a race where the favorite will likely be a horse who lost his only career race, nine months ago, by 28 lengths. That's the 3, Bird Humor, who has been working solidly for Nick Zito at Saratoga in preparation for a comeback, but I'm slightly wary of him, especially when one considers that:
A. He's entering this horse in for a tag, when he could run in a maiden special weight.
B. He's entering the horse at Monmouth, as opposed to Belmont, where the competition would probably be tougher. What does that say about what Zito thinks of his chances?
Now, I might look like a total moron here, and Bird Humor will win for fun, but I'm not betting on it. I'll take the 8, Elencino, who ran well in maiden special weights at Parx over the winter, and has some of the best numbers in the race. He'll be a better price than Bird Humor, too, I figure.
8- Elencino (7/2)
3- Bird Humor (5/2)
1- Way of the Warrior (3/1)
Gates open at 11:30 AM tomorrow, the first race is, as usual, 12:50. Good luck to all playing.
No comments:
Post a Comment