It's the first day of the annual, much-anticipated Food Truck Festival at Monmouth Park, which also means that it kicks off Memorial Day weekend here at the Shore's Greatest Stretch. 106 horses passed the box for a solid 12-race card, headlined by the Majestic Light Stakes. Let's get started.
Weather Forecast: 70*F, Sunny
Race 1: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
We begin the Saturday card with a wide-open claiming contest going one mile over the main track. My selection here will be the 1, Saturday Special, who dramatically improved last out at Tampa under trainer Jorge Navarro, earning a 95 brisnet speed figure that is tops in the field. Even going beyond his Navarro days, he's won his last three dirt routes, and has displayed the ability to rate and roll on by consistently. With Gaining Ground, the main speed, directly to his outside in post 2, there's a good chance that Saturday Special will draft in behind that leader, and just roll on by late to an easy score.
Also worthy of mention are the 6, Ponzi Scheme, a hard-knocking veteran who has run well against much better in his last few, and the 2, Gaining Ground, who has the aforementioned early speed.
1- Saturday Special (8/5)
6- Ponzi Scheme (5/1)
2- Gaining Ground (3/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
It's not every day that you select a horse who has been coming off steeplechase races in a dirt maiden claimer, but that's what I'll do here with the 2, Diacetto. In his lone dirt start, on November 21 at Churchill, at a similar level, he was way, way behind early on, before launching a serious rally to miss by a head. Following that race, he was transferred to the barn of Jack Fisher, who tried to make him into a jumper. His two efforts over fences were dull at best, so now he's back to a surface that he likes against a field that he should win against.
My only two problems with him are (1) Monmouth does have the tendency to play toward speed, and while a bettor should never bet as if there is going to be a bias without strong evidence, it is something to keep in mind, and (2) one must wonder about the effects steeplechase racing with have on Diacetto; after all, he ran at 2 1/2 miles only three weeks ago. Nonetheless, no one else in the field really has much of a case, so he'll be my pick.
2- Diacetto (5/1)
3- Apple Orchard (9/5)
4- Bull Ensign (2/1)
Race 3: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
It's the first grass sprint of the Monmouth Park season. These 5 1/2 furlong races start out of a unique chute, which cuts through the infield before the field enters the main grass track at around the 7/16 pole.
Anyway, this one was a very tough race, and one where you could go in several different directions. Tentatively, I went with the 3, Starship Wildcat. He's the only one of the bunch to run consistently strong figures, earning an 83, 84, and 86 in his last three starts at Gulfstream. In his last race, despite breaking from the inside, he was forced wide into the stretch, only to rally strongly and win by a head. The second place finisher in that race, Delta Bluesman, came back to win his next start. I cannot say that Starship Wildcat is a cinch for "shore", but he'll be my play in here.
My second choice here is the 1, Franklin, whose numbers have been a tick below Starship Wildcat's, but he has early speed and the ever-dangerous Jorge Navarro training. Also under consideration are the 6, Didn't Take It, who ran a big figure of 90 but has the ice-cold Gabriel Saez in the saddle, and the 4, Ominous Thomas, who won twice at this distance last year, but hasn't run since October.
By the way, last year, Franklin was ridden in back-to-back starts by Rosie Napravnik and Juan Saez. Reminded me of how much I miss them both.
3- Starship Wildcat (3/1)
1- Franklin (7/2)
6- Didn't Take It (7/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
Even though he was annihilated last time out, the 3, Paddington Express, is my play here. His last start is easily excusable, as it was on the grass, and he was extremely wide almost the whole way. It's little wonder that he tired. Now, he gets back to dirt, a surface where he's won two out of his last three races, and has the best brisnet figures in the field by far, including a very good 82 in his last dirt effort at Pimlico. It would take either a huge improvement by someone else or a big transgression by Paddington Express for him to lose here, and that's why he's my play.
3- Paddington Express (3/1)
8- No Nukes (5/2)
1- Hawkeye Jimmie (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Once in a while, you'll see an interesting maiden special weight route--maybe there's some well-bred horses, or some promising first-time starters, or even a budding star in the field.
This is not one of those maiden races.
With no one in the field having shown much form in their winless careers, I'll take a shot with the 6, MJ's Warrior. He's the only one in the field to crack 80 on the brisnet scale, and was solid in that effort, closing from the back of the pack to miss by a length and a half at Laurel. Should he improve off that last effort--and he definitely can--he should win this one.
6- MJ's Warrior (3/1)
4- Talent Show (10/1)
2- Strike Em Down (6/1)
Race 6: Claiming $35,000 (n2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
In this race, the 2, Boss Man, appears to be a standout. His last three races on the grass were an 84, 84, and 88. No one else in the field even touches those numbers, giving Boss Man the rare distinction of being a "triple fig" horse. So even if he regresses by a few points, it would take improvement by the rest of the field to be able to catch him. If he stays at his 2/1 morning line, that would make him a great bet.
Furthermore, this is also my pick for Joe Bravo to get his 5,000th career win. Hopefully, he'll get it with Boss Man.
Also worth noting are the 1, Royal Caviar, and the 1A, My Enigma, both of whom have run a 78 and an 82 in their last two starts. Both of them made tremendous closing rallies in their last starts, only to just miss. Expect similar rallies from both of them this time out.
2- Boss Man (2/1)
1- Royal Caviar/1A- My Enigma (7/2)
8- Pirradazis (9/2)
Race 7: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The opening leg of the Jersey Shore 6 appears to run through the two horses in the middle of the field--the 4, Joey Whispers, and the 5, Street Brawl. Both have similar brisnet figures: Joey Whispers's last three races earned an 86, 76, and 86, while Street Brawl did 85, 83, and 84. The main difference between the two is that Joey Whispers almost never runs a winning race. In fact, in his last two races at Pimlico, he set the pace and was caught both times.
Street Brawl, in contrast, is the kind of horse that usually catches Joey Whispers. In two out of his last three races, he's stalked the pace and come on to get by. I see a similar setup emerging in this race; so much so that I would be inclined to bet a cold Street Brawl-Joey Whispers exacta, something that I usually don't do.
5- Street Brawl (7/2)
4- Joey Whispers (5/2)
2- Exchange the Limit (8/1)
Race 8: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's another race where it's very wide-open; you could make a case for plenty of runners in here. I eventually settled on the 1, Mythical Man. He's one of the few in the field to run consistently good figures, with an 82, 87, and 86 in his last three. He's also taking a drop in class, down from a n/w1x allowance at Tampa back down to the claiming level, where he succeeded.
I was originally going to pick the 4, Treasury Devil, who was fast last year on the NYRA circuit, but hasn't raced on the grass since November, and his workouts leading up to this race have been less-than-impressive. Somethings tells me that he needs this race to get back into form, and will be worth looking at more next out.
1- Mythical Man (9/2)
4- Treasury Devil (5/1)
3- Kitten in May (6/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 1 Mile 70 Yards
This Jersey-bred allowance kicks off the late pick-4, and I'll start it off with the 2, Ride Ride Ride. He hasn't won in a while, to be "shore", but his last two races, both at Parx this winter, were an 84 and 86 on the brisnet scale. The only one to come close to those numbers consistently is the 4, Beautiful Joe, who is making his third start off the layoff and ran an 89 first start back, but I am un"shore" about him stretching out from a sprint to a route. Both horses are dangerous regardless.
Note, by the way, that this is the first race of the annual "Survival at the Shore" contest. Log onto survivalattheshore.com for more information, and to register.
2- Ride Ride Ride (7/2)
4- Beautiful Joe (5/1)
8- Social Network (8/1)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
It's become a common theme today--a wide open race that several horses could win. Of course, this is a good thing, as it's way better for handle to have these kind of competitive races. After all, where's the fun in betting a string of 3/5 shots in every race?
Anyway, I pick the 1, Neoclassic, in this spot. Trainer Marcus Vitali has been sneakily good with his grass starters, already having two wins on the lawn this season. In his last start, at Pimlico, at a similar level, he was compromised by a bad start, yet quickly got back into contention and only missed by two lengths. With a better start, he should return to the mid-80s figures he had been running, which would enable him to win this one.
The 9, Irish Strait, ran great first off the layoff last out, and has the sharp grass training of Graham Motion, but is being ridden by the 0-26 Angel Serpa. Buyer beware unless he gets hot as the card goes on.
Also worth noting at a price is the 3, Signature Look, who made a big improvement to win last out at Belmont. At a 12/1 morning line, he may be one to look at.
1- Neoclassic (4/1)
9- Irish Strait (5/1)
3- Signature Look (12/1)
Race 11: Majestic Light Stakes, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
A bulky field of 11 has congregated for this stakes race, and the prime contenders appear to be clustered to the outside. I selected the 8, Cousin Stephen, coming off a near miss against similar in the Stymie Stakes at Aqueduct last out. He led almost the whole way around there, only to be nipped in the last stride. In his last two before that at Parx, he was able to pull off the gate-to-wire move, earning two great figures of 102 and 107. If he had a better post, he'd be close to a cinch, but I have confidence that he'll be able to be on or near the lead, and get the job done.
Others to consider are the 9, Red Vine, who got a great stalking trip last out at Aqueduct and scored easily, and the 10, Souper Lucky, who ran a huge number three back at Laurel. Be wary of the morning line favorite, the 2, Valid, who appears a cut below my top three selections based on figures.
8- Cousin Stephen (5/1)
9- Red Vine (9/2)
10- Souper Lucky (5/1)
Race 12: Claiming $7,500 (n2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
No imagination needed in the nightcap. The 9, Zo Zo, has tons of early speed and the two best last-out figures in the field by a mile, at 76 and 71, respectively. Her win last out at the open claiming level means that she should be able to handle the n2L class pretty easily. Her 3/1 morning line in real life would mean that Christmas came early.
9- Zo Zo (3/1)
4- Give Me Love (5/1)
7- Skirt Stake (4/1)
That's my opinion on the Saturday program. First race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck to everyone, especially those playing the Survival at the Shore contest.
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