More than 8,000 fans came out to the Oceanport oval for a Saturday afternoon of racing. Here's how it all went down.
Race 1 (Musket Mary, Gerald Bennett-Chelsey Keiser, 1:39.1)
I don't know if I will ever know what Jose Ferrer was thinking with his ride on True to the Game, but it wasn't much. Despite a clear lead with his mount, he sent her through a second quarter of :23.1, enabling her to open up a five-length lead. To the surprise of (probably) nobody, she tired, and Musket Mary shot up the rail to win it. After True to the Game, it was 20 lengths back to third place Trapise in Utopia.
Race 2 (Confrontational, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:41.4)
Confrontational's form had been sharply declining, but she still managed to find a field that she could beat. She rated in the two-path the entire way around, made her move, and managed to win easily when no one else made one. Not much else to say about the rest of these.
Race 3 (Forge Ahead Franki, Wayne Catalano-Armando Ayuso, 1:09.4)
Forge Ahead Franki was gunned to the early lead by Armando Ayuso, and, rather inexplicably, no one tried to challenge him. This enabled Franki to leave everyone else in the dust and win by seven easy lengths. His race will look impressive on paper--especially with the very fast final time--but be aware that, if there is any sense left in the world, he will not get as easy of a trip in his next start.
Race 4 (Have a Taste, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, :56.2)
Anna May Our Queen was the most likely winner, to be "shore", but 1/2 on her was more than a bit ridiculous. She looked good for most of the race, setting torrid fractions on a clear lead, but was run down late by first-time grass starter Have a Taste, who sat a beautiful trip off that fast pace inside. Offlee Shiekh also rallied from the back of the pack, and narrowly missed to secure third.
Race 5 (Freestyler, Bruce Alexander-Daniel Centeno, 1:36.4)
I don't understand what goes through the heads of Monmouth bettors sometimes. Case in point: He's So Fine went off at 1/1 in this race. How could that possibly happen? I mean, are bettors looking at the board and thinking, "wow, this horse is even money! Can't afford to pass this one up!" Meanwhile, my pick, Freestyler, went off at 5/2. He ran another great race, stalking the pace, making a three-wide move, and battling with He's So Fine to get up and score. I wish I had bet it, but I was away this weekend, so I couldn't. What'cha gonna do?
Race 6 (Oak Bluffs, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, :55.1)
The already-speedy Dedicated to Bob was a little too speedy in here, setting blazing fractions of :20.3 and :43.1. This set the table perfectly for Oak Bluffs, who stalked the pace, split horses late, and erupted down the stretch for a two-length victory. Oak Bluffs improved to 2-2 on the season--one win on dirt, one win on grass.
Race 7 (Hip Hop N Jazz, Tom Proctor-Trevor McCarthy, 1:10.2)
You couldn't have asked for a better trip for Hip Hop N Jazz, who rated off an extremely fast four-way speed duel, rolled four-wide on the turn, and won easily. Among the duelers, Hazel Eyed Girl ran the best race, vying for the lead in the four-path before stopping and holding on for a decent third. Watch for her next time.
Race 8 (Make Your Point, Rudy Rodriguez-Inoel Beato, 1:42.4)
Remember how I said Good Catholic Girl was worth a bet, because she had a ton of trouble in her last start? Yeah, as it turns out, she had a tough trip here, too, running wide almost the whole way around. As such, she faded to a disappointing seventh.
Make Your Point, meanwhile, was well off the pace for most of the race, only to rally wide late and get up. Second-place finisher Glory Style had a similar trip.
Race 9 (Padre Graz, Pat McBurney-Daniel Centeno, 1:45.0)
Village Warrior was once again bet down to ludicrously low odds, going off at 4/5. Just like last time, he had no rally when asked. I'll tell you, if he comes back at this same level in his last start, I will unapologetically call anyone who bets him a huge moron.
Winner Padre Graz, meanwhile, sat a beautiful trip, rating off the leader, Roman Officer, and rolling to an easy score once he tired and nobody else made a move.
Race 10 (Love That Kelly, Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, 1:36.0)
That makes three for Daniel Centeno on the day, as Love That Kelly rallied from the back of the pack to score a game win over fellow closer Double Berg. That also makes a training double for Jamie Ness.
Race 11 (Saucy Don, Teresa Pompay-Abel Castellano, 1:09.2)
Not only did Rainbow Heir lose at 2/5 odds in his return, he wasn't even the best horse in here. Saucy Don had to wait, roughly, a million years for a place to go, only to finally get clear in the stretch and get through to win it by a head over Loverbil. The latter made a big move on the far turn, only to get nipped late by Saucy Don.
Rainbow Heir was a disappointing fourth, although I doubt that this race is very indicative of his overall form. Watch for him to improve next time.
Race 12 (Khloe's Quest, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:12.4)
This race was over the moment it began, when Khloe's Quest jumped out to a clear early lead, and no one else even came close to catching her. My pick, Solo Number, went off at 41/1 odds, and was beaten by 47 lengths. You can't win 'em all, I guess.
That's a wrap for Saturday. I'll see you Thursday for a rundown of the first Friday card of the season.
Sunday, May 31, 2015
Thursday, May 28, 2015
May 30, 2015: Picks and Analysis
Eight hard-knocking Jersey-breds will line up to compete in the John Reilly Handicap, which goes as the eleventh of twelve on the Saturday program. Here's how I think things will shake out.
By the way, note that there are no morning lines, because I wrote this post before they came out. If I have time, I will add them in later.
Weather Forecast: 80*F, Partly Cloudy
Another ideal day for racing at the Jersey Shore.
Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The 5, Musket Mary, was very visually impressive in her last start at this level on May 17. She came from way off a fast pace, and drew off to win by nine lengths as no one was closing ground on her. She earned a brisnet figure of 83 for that effort, which is the best last-out number in this field by a longshot. Both the 3, Royal Six Shooter, and the 6, True to the Game, have shown early speed in the past, so there's a chance that a similar set-up as last out will occur, and Musket Mary will blow by her competition. However, if someone gets a clear lead and slow fractions, there may be too much for her to do. Not to mention, Musket Mary may go off at a low price here, making her an underlay at best. I'll pick her to win, but I'm guardedly optimistic about her.
5- Musket Mary
3- Royal Six Shooter
6- True to the Game
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
This race is so bad, that anyone on-track Saturday will have to wear nose plugs while the horses are on the track. The best handicapping advice I can give to anyone about this race is toss any horse in the post parade who has less than four legs.
This is because all eight horses in the field have shown terrible form, and I really cannot say anything good about anyone. However, in a selection you can file under "only because I HAVE to", I pick the 7, Velenosa, only because she ran some (relatively) decent numbers last year. Even in her case, she hasn't run since September, and her trainer is not good with horses off a layoff.
Like I said, I may pick her, but I wouldn't bet her--or anyone in the field--with your money.
7- Velenosa
4- Roman Sister
2- Harumi
Race 3: Claiming $30,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
My selection lies toward the outside, in the 7, Pinch of Salt. He's shipping in from Pimlico, where he was struggling in n/w1x allowance races. He may have been a bit outclassed in those spots, but he nonetheless sported good figures, with numbers of 88, 82, and 83 in his last three. Nobody else in the field has shown the ability to consistently run figures like that, giving Pinch of Salt a big edge.
His jockey, Gabriel Saez, may have bad stats on paper, but he won his first race of the year on longshot Stiffed on Sunday, and took two races on Monday. This--to me, anyway--indicates that he's started to turn a corner, and he should start picking it up as the year goes on. He's certainly got a good chance to boot home winner #4 here, and that's why Pinch of Salt is my pick.
Others to consider are the 3, Forest Boy, who has early speed on the inside, but will be overbet, thanks to the Jacobson/Paco combination, and the 5, El Guero Guantero, who ran solid races at Parx over the winter at this level.
7- Pinch of Salt
3- Forest Boy
5- El Guero Guantero
Race 4: Claiming $35,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
Another day, another rail setting that's really far out, permitting only eight horses to run. By Belmont weekend, we'll have three horses in the body of grass races, and nine also eligibles.
Anyway, I'll take the 8, Anna May Our Queen. In her last start, on the grass at Gulfstream, she showed dramatic improvement, going from a 74 two back to an 86. In that last race, she dueled on the outside through a :21.2 opening quarter, brushed off her rival, and drew off to an impressive four-length victory. My only concern with her is that she has not had a workout since that race, sparking curiosity as to how much that race took out of her. However, no one else in the field has really shown much grass form (even that 74 race would likely win it), and she's got early speed, so she's worth a shot.
Three horses in the race have never run on grass. Among those, the most promising is the 2, Offlee Sheikh, who ran well first off the layoff on dirt last out. Her trainer, Eddie Plesa (who also trains Anna May Our Queen), sports a 15% win rate with dirt-to-grass horses. Plesa hasn't won a race all season, but I wouldn't be surprised if he combined for the exacta here.
8- Anna May Our Queen
3- Touch of Snow
2- Offlee Sheikh
Race 5: Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Even with the bias, it was hard to be gutsier last out than the 4, Freestyler, was. He rated off a speed horse (Bama Bound) who faded on the turn, then held off the challenge of the good Marriage Fever. The two of them finished five lengths clear of the rest of the field, and Freestyler earned a field-best figure of 95. He's got three ascending figures going into this race, speed with three relatively slow horses to his inside, and he should be a decent price.
Interestingly, he worked last out at Saratoga--which is about four hours north of Monmouth--then shipped back down for this race. Weird.
Another to consider is the 2, Jonesy Boy, who would be my pick if this race was run last year, as he ran great figures in the first half of 2014, but was dull in his lone 2015 effort. We'll see if he can bounce back to his old ways. The 6, Mr. Masterpiece, has the Jacobson/Paco combination, which almost guarantees favortism, but he did run good races at Aqueduct over the winter.
4- Freestyler
2- Jonesy Boy
6- Mr. Masterpiece
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
It's not often that I'll pick a horse in a grass race based off of his last start on dirt, but that is kind of what I'm doing with the 4, Oak Bluffs. His grass figures are superb, running an 89, 82, and 86 in his most recent three races on the lawn, but I was impressed with his last effort, on the dirt on May 9. He was the only horse who was not directly on the lead all day who still won, which shows me that he is still in good form, and a return to his grass efforts would "shore"ly win this one.
The 8, Dedicated to Bob, has run figures in grass sprints up to a 102 in the past, but has declined in his last three races. He still has a good shot here, though.
4- Oak Bluffs
8- Dedicated to Bob
7- Benny is a Jet
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
She may not have a lot of experience, but she has a lot of potential, and that's why I'll take the 2, Hip Hop N Jazz, in this race. In her debut at Pimlico, she rallied from eight lengths out of it to get up and score by two widening lengths. She earned a figure of 86 in that race, which marks the second-best last out race in the field. There's plenty of early speed in this race, so she'll have a good pace to make her closing run at. As long as she's able to improve off her last race, she looks to be the best in here.
The 4, Fiesta Rose, had a last race that looked impressive, but she coasted to a clear lead over a pro-speed track. In this race, as previously noted, she will have to contend with much more speed, which means either she'll have to exert herself a lot more to clear to the lead, or she'll get involved in a duel, and may fade. Of course, she didn't tire at this level at Tampa in March, holding on to finish a game second, but her figure in that race was only an 84, which is probably not good enough to win this race. She may improve, and hold on even with a tougher pace, but I wouldn't bet on it.
2- Hip Hop N Jazz
4- Fiesta Rose
1- Concealedwithakiss
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This race marks the return of Good Catholic Girl, who was much the best in her last race on May 10, but was completely bottled up down the stretch to lose any chance of winning. Her mediocre figure of 68 can be discounted here, for if she had smooth sailing, she would've likely earned a 75, which would put her right in the mix here. She has the 8 post in this spot, and while she may not be the most likely winner--as we'll see in a moment--she will be the best value for "shore".
The best figures in the field belong to the 2, Make Your Point, and the 3, Wonforthemoneyhon. The former ran well over the winter in Florida--well enough to win here, as a matter of fact--but was dull in her first start off the layoff at Aqueduct. Assuming that that race was only maintenance, and she'll be ready to fire here, she is definitely one to think about.
Wonforthemoneyhon, meanwhile, ran a much-improved 77 figure in her last race, at this level at Gulfstream. She's trained by the ever-dangerous Jorge Navarro, and had a sharp workout at Monmouth on May 24 in preparation for this race.
All three horses have a chance in here, but I lean toward Good Catholic Girl, assuming she'll have a clean path to run this time.
8- Good Catholic Girl
2- Make Your Point
3- Wonforthemoneyhon
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I think that, on paper, the 3, Village Warrior, is a stand-out. My concern is that I said the exact same thing about him before his last race, on May 9, and it didn't not turn out well. He was 3rd at 3/5 odds. He didn't have any visible excuses, either, as he sat just off the pace, but had no rally when asked. Now, it's possible that he wasn't 100% that day for some reason, and he'll be firing on all cylinders Saturday, but it's not a prospect that I would take low odds on. We'll see, I suppose.
Should Village Warrior not fire, I'll take the 4, Mack Miller, who narrowly missed in that same race, has similar recent figures (Miller earned a 91 in that last race, and has run races in the 90s before), and will be a way better price.
3- Village Warrior
4- Mack Miller
8- Cee No More
Race 10: Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
This race re-defines what "wide-open" means: you could make a case for just about everybody in the race. I lean toward the 9, Love That Kelly, even though I know she stopped on the lead last out. There's no speed in here to pressure her, and her previous two figures, of 79 and 78, would probably be good enough to win it. If she's allowed to coast on the lead, she may forget to stop.
Another one to consider is the 2, Bluegrass Genius, who rated off the pace last out at Gulfstream to get up and win, earning a solid figure in the process. The 3, Red Letter, ran back-to-back 80s at Tampa, for the two strongest numbers in the field going in.
9- Love That Kelly
3- Red Letter
2- Bluegrass Genius
Race 11: John J. Reilly Handicap, 3yo and up, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
It's a hard-knocking field of Jersey-breds sprinting here in the John Reilly, and the field of eight includes graded stakes winner Rainbow Heir. He was last seen costing himself a trip to the Breeders' Cup with a fruitless fifth in the Phoenix at Keeneland. He's been off since then, and has been working well in preparation for this race. His figures in the past are certainly good enough to win it, and on class alone, he towers over his rivals.
With that being said, I'm not totally sold on him off the long layoff. While it certainly would be nice if he won, I'll look elsewhere and select the 6, Saucy Don. He's had good form on the year, most recently running a solid third in the Decathlon Stakes versus open company. Now, he steps back down into Jersey-bred company, with three ascending figures, a good workout pattern, and a top jockey. He'll be my selection.
By the way, I tried to find out who the John J. Reilly in question is, but an internet search came up empty. If anybody out there knows who he was, let me know--I'd love to find out.
6- Saucy Don
2- Rainbow Heir
4- Loverbil
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
A full field of maiden claimers serves as the getaway race on the last Saturday of May, and I'll take a bit of a crazy horse here, in the 7, Solo Number. In her first race, she lost all chance when she was off very slowly, losing by 21 lengths. The way the track was playing that day, she was hopeless. She turned in a great three furlong work on May 27, showing that she may be improving form. It's not great evidence that she'll win, to be "shore", but it's a wide-open race of inconsistent horses, so crazier things have happened.
The 1, Khloe's Quest, has early speed to the inside and relatively decent figures, so she may be a threat to wire the field. Watch for her, although she may be favored.
7- Solo Number
1- Khloe's Quest
6- Charlie's Rainbow
That wraps up Saturday's card. Note, once again, that I will not be providing picks for Sunday's card, as I'll be away this weekend. I will be back Sunday night with a recap of Saturday's program. Good luck to everybody playing!
By the way, note that there are no morning lines, because I wrote this post before they came out. If I have time, I will add them in later.
Weather Forecast: 80*F, Partly Cloudy
Another ideal day for racing at the Jersey Shore.
Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The 5, Musket Mary, was very visually impressive in her last start at this level on May 17. She came from way off a fast pace, and drew off to win by nine lengths as no one was closing ground on her. She earned a brisnet figure of 83 for that effort, which is the best last-out number in this field by a longshot. Both the 3, Royal Six Shooter, and the 6, True to the Game, have shown early speed in the past, so there's a chance that a similar set-up as last out will occur, and Musket Mary will blow by her competition. However, if someone gets a clear lead and slow fractions, there may be too much for her to do. Not to mention, Musket Mary may go off at a low price here, making her an underlay at best. I'll pick her to win, but I'm guardedly optimistic about her.
5- Musket Mary
3- Royal Six Shooter
6- True to the Game
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
This race is so bad, that anyone on-track Saturday will have to wear nose plugs while the horses are on the track. The best handicapping advice I can give to anyone about this race is toss any horse in the post parade who has less than four legs.
This is because all eight horses in the field have shown terrible form, and I really cannot say anything good about anyone. However, in a selection you can file under "only because I HAVE to", I pick the 7, Velenosa, only because she ran some (relatively) decent numbers last year. Even in her case, she hasn't run since September, and her trainer is not good with horses off a layoff.
Like I said, I may pick her, but I wouldn't bet her--or anyone in the field--with your money.
7- Velenosa
4- Roman Sister
2- Harumi
Race 3: Claiming $30,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
My selection lies toward the outside, in the 7, Pinch of Salt. He's shipping in from Pimlico, where he was struggling in n/w1x allowance races. He may have been a bit outclassed in those spots, but he nonetheless sported good figures, with numbers of 88, 82, and 83 in his last three. Nobody else in the field has shown the ability to consistently run figures like that, giving Pinch of Salt a big edge.
His jockey, Gabriel Saez, may have bad stats on paper, but he won his first race of the year on longshot Stiffed on Sunday, and took two races on Monday. This--to me, anyway--indicates that he's started to turn a corner, and he should start picking it up as the year goes on. He's certainly got a good chance to boot home winner #4 here, and that's why Pinch of Salt is my pick.
Others to consider are the 3, Forest Boy, who has early speed on the inside, but will be overbet, thanks to the Jacobson/Paco combination, and the 5, El Guero Guantero, who ran solid races at Parx over the winter at this level.
7- Pinch of Salt
3- Forest Boy
5- El Guero Guantero
Race 4: Claiming $35,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
Another day, another rail setting that's really far out, permitting only eight horses to run. By Belmont weekend, we'll have three horses in the body of grass races, and nine also eligibles.
Anyway, I'll take the 8, Anna May Our Queen. In her last start, on the grass at Gulfstream, she showed dramatic improvement, going from a 74 two back to an 86. In that last race, she dueled on the outside through a :21.2 opening quarter, brushed off her rival, and drew off to an impressive four-length victory. My only concern with her is that she has not had a workout since that race, sparking curiosity as to how much that race took out of her. However, no one else in the field has really shown much grass form (even that 74 race would likely win it), and she's got early speed, so she's worth a shot.
Three horses in the race have never run on grass. Among those, the most promising is the 2, Offlee Sheikh, who ran well first off the layoff on dirt last out. Her trainer, Eddie Plesa (who also trains Anna May Our Queen), sports a 15% win rate with dirt-to-grass horses. Plesa hasn't won a race all season, but I wouldn't be surprised if he combined for the exacta here.
8- Anna May Our Queen
3- Touch of Snow
2- Offlee Sheikh
Race 5: Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Even with the bias, it was hard to be gutsier last out than the 4, Freestyler, was. He rated off a speed horse (Bama Bound) who faded on the turn, then held off the challenge of the good Marriage Fever. The two of them finished five lengths clear of the rest of the field, and Freestyler earned a field-best figure of 95. He's got three ascending figures going into this race, speed with three relatively slow horses to his inside, and he should be a decent price.
Interestingly, he worked last out at Saratoga--which is about four hours north of Monmouth--then shipped back down for this race. Weird.
Another to consider is the 2, Jonesy Boy, who would be my pick if this race was run last year, as he ran great figures in the first half of 2014, but was dull in his lone 2015 effort. We'll see if he can bounce back to his old ways. The 6, Mr. Masterpiece, has the Jacobson/Paco combination, which almost guarantees favortism, but he did run good races at Aqueduct over the winter.
4- Freestyler
2- Jonesy Boy
6- Mr. Masterpiece
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
It's not often that I'll pick a horse in a grass race based off of his last start on dirt, but that is kind of what I'm doing with the 4, Oak Bluffs. His grass figures are superb, running an 89, 82, and 86 in his most recent three races on the lawn, but I was impressed with his last effort, on the dirt on May 9. He was the only horse who was not directly on the lead all day who still won, which shows me that he is still in good form, and a return to his grass efforts would "shore"ly win this one.
The 8, Dedicated to Bob, has run figures in grass sprints up to a 102 in the past, but has declined in his last three races. He still has a good shot here, though.
4- Oak Bluffs
8- Dedicated to Bob
7- Benny is a Jet
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
She may not have a lot of experience, but she has a lot of potential, and that's why I'll take the 2, Hip Hop N Jazz, in this race. In her debut at Pimlico, she rallied from eight lengths out of it to get up and score by two widening lengths. She earned a figure of 86 in that race, which marks the second-best last out race in the field. There's plenty of early speed in this race, so she'll have a good pace to make her closing run at. As long as she's able to improve off her last race, she looks to be the best in here.
The 4, Fiesta Rose, had a last race that looked impressive, but she coasted to a clear lead over a pro-speed track. In this race, as previously noted, she will have to contend with much more speed, which means either she'll have to exert herself a lot more to clear to the lead, or she'll get involved in a duel, and may fade. Of course, she didn't tire at this level at Tampa in March, holding on to finish a game second, but her figure in that race was only an 84, which is probably not good enough to win this race. She may improve, and hold on even with a tougher pace, but I wouldn't bet on it.
2- Hip Hop N Jazz
4- Fiesta Rose
1- Concealedwithakiss
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This race marks the return of Good Catholic Girl, who was much the best in her last race on May 10, but was completely bottled up down the stretch to lose any chance of winning. Her mediocre figure of 68 can be discounted here, for if she had smooth sailing, she would've likely earned a 75, which would put her right in the mix here. She has the 8 post in this spot, and while she may not be the most likely winner--as we'll see in a moment--she will be the best value for "shore".
The best figures in the field belong to the 2, Make Your Point, and the 3, Wonforthemoneyhon. The former ran well over the winter in Florida--well enough to win here, as a matter of fact--but was dull in her first start off the layoff at Aqueduct. Assuming that that race was only maintenance, and she'll be ready to fire here, she is definitely one to think about.
Wonforthemoneyhon, meanwhile, ran a much-improved 77 figure in her last race, at this level at Gulfstream. She's trained by the ever-dangerous Jorge Navarro, and had a sharp workout at Monmouth on May 24 in preparation for this race.
All three horses have a chance in here, but I lean toward Good Catholic Girl, assuming she'll have a clean path to run this time.
8- Good Catholic Girl
2- Make Your Point
3- Wonforthemoneyhon
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I think that, on paper, the 3, Village Warrior, is a stand-out. My concern is that I said the exact same thing about him before his last race, on May 9, and it didn't not turn out well. He was 3rd at 3/5 odds. He didn't have any visible excuses, either, as he sat just off the pace, but had no rally when asked. Now, it's possible that he wasn't 100% that day for some reason, and he'll be firing on all cylinders Saturday, but it's not a prospect that I would take low odds on. We'll see, I suppose.
Should Village Warrior not fire, I'll take the 4, Mack Miller, who narrowly missed in that same race, has similar recent figures (Miller earned a 91 in that last race, and has run races in the 90s before), and will be a way better price.
3- Village Warrior
4- Mack Miller
8- Cee No More
Race 10: Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
This race re-defines what "wide-open" means: you could make a case for just about everybody in the race. I lean toward the 9, Love That Kelly, even though I know she stopped on the lead last out. There's no speed in here to pressure her, and her previous two figures, of 79 and 78, would probably be good enough to win it. If she's allowed to coast on the lead, she may forget to stop.
Another one to consider is the 2, Bluegrass Genius, who rated off the pace last out at Gulfstream to get up and win, earning a solid figure in the process. The 3, Red Letter, ran back-to-back 80s at Tampa, for the two strongest numbers in the field going in.
9- Love That Kelly
3- Red Letter
2- Bluegrass Genius
Race 11: John J. Reilly Handicap, 3yo and up, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
It's a hard-knocking field of Jersey-breds sprinting here in the John Reilly, and the field of eight includes graded stakes winner Rainbow Heir. He was last seen costing himself a trip to the Breeders' Cup with a fruitless fifth in the Phoenix at Keeneland. He's been off since then, and has been working well in preparation for this race. His figures in the past are certainly good enough to win it, and on class alone, he towers over his rivals.
With that being said, I'm not totally sold on him off the long layoff. While it certainly would be nice if he won, I'll look elsewhere and select the 6, Saucy Don. He's had good form on the year, most recently running a solid third in the Decathlon Stakes versus open company. Now, he steps back down into Jersey-bred company, with three ascending figures, a good workout pattern, and a top jockey. He'll be my selection.
By the way, I tried to find out who the John J. Reilly in question is, but an internet search came up empty. If anybody out there knows who he was, let me know--I'd love to find out.
6- Saucy Don
2- Rainbow Heir
4- Loverbil
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
A full field of maiden claimers serves as the getaway race on the last Saturday of May, and I'll take a bit of a crazy horse here, in the 7, Solo Number. In her first race, she lost all chance when she was off very slowly, losing by 21 lengths. The way the track was playing that day, she was hopeless. She turned in a great three furlong work on May 27, showing that she may be improving form. It's not great evidence that she'll win, to be "shore", but it's a wide-open race of inconsistent horses, so crazier things have happened.
The 1, Khloe's Quest, has early speed to the inside and relatively decent figures, so she may be a threat to wire the field. Watch for her, although she may be favored.
7- Solo Number
1- Khloe's Quest
6- Charlie's Rainbow
That wraps up Saturday's card. Note, once again, that I will not be providing picks for Sunday's card, as I'll be away this weekend. I will be back Sunday night with a recap of Saturday's program. Good luck to everybody playing!
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Tuesday Thoughts
Some thoughts after the big weekend...
- Saturday's Majestic Light Stakes was, to put it mildly, an exercise in absurdity. Even though eleven horses entered, a whopping six of them scratched. Six! You almost never see that, unless the race is taken off the grass.
What really grinds my gears, however, is the fact that all the scratches were merely listed under "trainer", which could mean anything from the horse is hurt to the trainer decided to scratch for the hell of it. That's unbelievable. I get that, sometimes, horses have to be scratched because they're hurt, or sick, or whatever, but tracks could at least tell us that's the case (like they do in harness racing). And if a trainer wants to scratch and the horse isn't hurt or sick...well, they shouldn't be allowed to.
Now, I noticed that trainer David Jacobson entered three, and scratched two of them. In those kind of cases, why not just couple all of his horses? That way, if he decides to scratch two of his, at least the amount of betting interests in the race stays the same. - With seven winners over the weekend, Paco Lopez moved himself to the top of the jockey standings, where I will imagine he will stay for the rest of the season.
Meanwhile, Navin Mangalee, of all people, leads the way in terms of winning percentage, winning with 25% of his mounts. He guided home a 20/1 winner, Trockette, in yesterday's finale. - Speaking of jockeys, I'm happy to hear that Elvis Trujillo will be bringing his tack back to Jersey from California. I welcome him back, and hope that he resumes the success he had here at Monmouth some years ago.
- David Jacobson, meanwhile, leads the trainer standings with five winners. Him and Andre Worrie have combined for four winners so far this year. If their horses keep going off at odds-on, however, don't expect to make too much money off of him.
- I saw the nominations for this weekend's stakes, the John Reilly and the Open Mind, both for Jersey-breds. The Reilly nominations include a solid bunch of sixteen, including the venerable Hop Skip and Away, Claiming Crown Express winner Loverbil, and 2013 Jersey Shore Stakes winner Rainbow Heir.
The Open Mind, however, only drew eight nominations. Hopefully all of them go, but at this point, I would just be happy if it filled (which would require five entries). We'll see how it shakes out. - I'm happy to see the grass sprints returned this weekend. What I'm not happy about is that there's still no fractions for the 5 1/2 furlong races. Maybe someday...
- Public Service Announcement: there will be NO selections for the Sunday program. I will have picks for Saturday, but not Sunday. Keep that in mind.
Those are all the thoughts I have about Monmouth at the moment. See you later in the week for Saturday's picks.
Monday, May 25, 2015
Monmouth Racing Recap: 5/25/15
A crowd of 10,363--the smallest of the weekend--came out for the Memorial Day program here at Monmouth. They helped bring attendance at Monmouth over the weekend to above 60,000 fans, representing the biggest attendance over Memorial Day weekend in Monmouth Park history. Attendance was up by more than 37%, while handle was up more than 22%. Very good news for Monmouth--here's hoping this continues for the rest of the season.
Race 1 (Empower, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:39.3)
Much to my dismay, my pick, Laghubaar, was bet down to 3/5 favortism. To make matters worse, Wilmer Garcia took him off the rail, and, even worse, had him engage for the lead in the speed duel with J's Buck Shot Bang. Unsurprisingly, Laghubaar wilted from this exertion, and Empower, who sat a great trip off the pace, rallied two-wide to win it. Of course, this was the other horse that I liked. It figures.
Race 2 (Allstar, Eddie Broome-Paco Lopez, 1:43.4)
Paco Lopez demonstrated why he's the best jockey on the circuit. He waited on the inside for Allstar, gave him the cue when a hole opened up, and got through to score. Great job keeping his horse on the inside, rather than swinging outside and losing ground.
On the other end of the spectrum, Lure of the South broke slowly, rallied four-wide into the stretch, and got up for a respectable second. Not a bad effort on his part.
Race 3 (Lookingoutforyou, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:12.0)
I know that the Jacobson-Worrie combination is a winning angle, but what good does it do if all their horses are short-priced? In this case, Lookingoutforyou was as high at 3/2 a few minutes to post, before everyone realized that was a pretty good value, and plunged him down to 2/5. Ack.
Of course, he won anyway, as he slid up the rail on the turn to draw off to a victory. Trouble With Girls set the pace and held onto the lead into the stretch, but found his competition much tougher than he did last time, and stopped to finish fifth.
Race 4 (Peggy Joyce, Eddie Broome-Paco Lopez, 1:03.3)
First of all, I realized I kept talking about this race on my blog as if this was a route, but it was actually a sprint. How could I have missed that?
Anyway, Had It All set the early pace, but tired late as Peggy Joyce rallied three-wide to score. My selection, Double the Energy, checked hard coming into the stretch, and swung wide too late to get second. If she was clear, she probably would have won. Watch for her next out.
Race 5 (Tashreeh, Kiaran McLaughlin-Joe Bravo, 1:10.1)
As it turned out, the switch back to dirt did wonders for Tashreeh, as he took the lead, shook off chronic loser Rare, and held them all off to win by three impressive lengths.
Charlesbrecknridge finally didn't break badly, but he rallied three-wide in the stretch and did nothing after that, finishing a lukewarm third.
Race 6 (Hyman Roth, Derek Ryan-Abel Castellano, 1:48.3)
Hyman Roth sat a terrific trip in here, rating behind speedy leader Bob and the Gang. When that one tired, he outkicked the rest and drew off to an easy five length score. He's a good horse, but not as good as the margin (or likely speed figure) indicates. Buyer beware for next time out.
Race 7 (Mr. Spaceman, Jason Servis-Gabriel Saez, 1:12.1)
Another horse who sat a great rail stalking trip and was the benefit of an unbelievably bad hang job by James Alex. You know, I thought that horse would be coming from the back of the pack to get up late. Well, he came from the back of the pack, alright, but he just stopped cold at the 1/8 pole. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in for a tag next out.
Race 8 (Hothersal, Jason Servis-Gabriel Saez, 1:34.2)
I know I said just about the only way Lasso could lose this race is if he broke slowly. As it turns out, he got out a sneeze slow, had to be rushed up to be on the lead, raced wide the whole way, and checked out of contention to finish a disheartening last.
Hothersal, meanwhile, was wide the entire way around, but it didn't matter, as he rallied wide in the stretch and held off the late rally of Canzoni to get it done. Servis and Saez teamed up to win their second consecutive race of the day. Saez now has won more races in a two-race span than he did for the entire season prior to the seventh.
Race 9 (Light's Gone Wild, Chuck Spina-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.1)
Light's Gone Wild proved that his front-running maiden score was not a fluke, as dueled in the three-path, brushed off the rest of the duelers, and held off all his rivals, including heavily favored Little Hitman, to get the job done. This horse may prove to be a good one--I'm "shore" we'll see if he's legitimate in his next start.
Race 10 (Kenzadargent, Chad Brown-Jose Lezcano, 1:41.0)
No surprises here, as Chad Brown wins a stakes on the grass. In Kenzadargent's case, she had to wait on the rail for a long time, but once she got through, it was all over except for the cheering.
Race 11 (Trockette, Tim Richardson-Navin Mangalee, 1:06.1)
A tremendous effort was turned in by Trockette here, especially for a 20/1 first time starter. He dueled four-wide down the backstretch, was three-wide entering the turn, and didn't get tired to hold on for the win.
My pick, Elencino, was five-wide down the backstretch while on that pace, and had no chance once that happened. Bird Humor rated off that duel, yet showed no signs of a rally at all and was a lukewarm fifth. Anyone who bet him was really just disappointing themselves up for disappointment.
That wraps up Memorial Day weekend at Monmouth. Hope all of you guys out there made some money, and had as good of a weekend as Monmouth did. Let's hope better days are shining through for them.
Race 1 (Empower, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:39.3)
Much to my dismay, my pick, Laghubaar, was bet down to 3/5 favortism. To make matters worse, Wilmer Garcia took him off the rail, and, even worse, had him engage for the lead in the speed duel with J's Buck Shot Bang. Unsurprisingly, Laghubaar wilted from this exertion, and Empower, who sat a great trip off the pace, rallied two-wide to win it. Of course, this was the other horse that I liked. It figures.
Race 2 (Allstar, Eddie Broome-Paco Lopez, 1:43.4)
Paco Lopez demonstrated why he's the best jockey on the circuit. He waited on the inside for Allstar, gave him the cue when a hole opened up, and got through to score. Great job keeping his horse on the inside, rather than swinging outside and losing ground.
On the other end of the spectrum, Lure of the South broke slowly, rallied four-wide into the stretch, and got up for a respectable second. Not a bad effort on his part.
Race 3 (Lookingoutforyou, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:12.0)
I know that the Jacobson-Worrie combination is a winning angle, but what good does it do if all their horses are short-priced? In this case, Lookingoutforyou was as high at 3/2 a few minutes to post, before everyone realized that was a pretty good value, and plunged him down to 2/5. Ack.
Of course, he won anyway, as he slid up the rail on the turn to draw off to a victory. Trouble With Girls set the pace and held onto the lead into the stretch, but found his competition much tougher than he did last time, and stopped to finish fifth.
Race 4 (Peggy Joyce, Eddie Broome-Paco Lopez, 1:03.3)
First of all, I realized I kept talking about this race on my blog as if this was a route, but it was actually a sprint. How could I have missed that?
Anyway, Had It All set the early pace, but tired late as Peggy Joyce rallied three-wide to score. My selection, Double the Energy, checked hard coming into the stretch, and swung wide too late to get second. If she was clear, she probably would have won. Watch for her next out.
Race 5 (Tashreeh, Kiaran McLaughlin-Joe Bravo, 1:10.1)
As it turned out, the switch back to dirt did wonders for Tashreeh, as he took the lead, shook off chronic loser Rare, and held them all off to win by three impressive lengths.
Charlesbrecknridge finally didn't break badly, but he rallied three-wide in the stretch and did nothing after that, finishing a lukewarm third.
Race 6 (Hyman Roth, Derek Ryan-Abel Castellano, 1:48.3)
Hyman Roth sat a terrific trip in here, rating behind speedy leader Bob and the Gang. When that one tired, he outkicked the rest and drew off to an easy five length score. He's a good horse, but not as good as the margin (or likely speed figure) indicates. Buyer beware for next time out.
Race 7 (Mr. Spaceman, Jason Servis-Gabriel Saez, 1:12.1)
Another horse who sat a great rail stalking trip and was the benefit of an unbelievably bad hang job by James Alex. You know, I thought that horse would be coming from the back of the pack to get up late. Well, he came from the back of the pack, alright, but he just stopped cold at the 1/8 pole. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in for a tag next out.
Race 8 (Hothersal, Jason Servis-Gabriel Saez, 1:34.2)
I know I said just about the only way Lasso could lose this race is if he broke slowly. As it turns out, he got out a sneeze slow, had to be rushed up to be on the lead, raced wide the whole way, and checked out of contention to finish a disheartening last.
Hothersal, meanwhile, was wide the entire way around, but it didn't matter, as he rallied wide in the stretch and held off the late rally of Canzoni to get it done. Servis and Saez teamed up to win their second consecutive race of the day. Saez now has won more races in a two-race span than he did for the entire season prior to the seventh.
Race 9 (Light's Gone Wild, Chuck Spina-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.1)
Light's Gone Wild proved that his front-running maiden score was not a fluke, as dueled in the three-path, brushed off the rest of the duelers, and held off all his rivals, including heavily favored Little Hitman, to get the job done. This horse may prove to be a good one--I'm "shore" we'll see if he's legitimate in his next start.
Race 10 (Kenzadargent, Chad Brown-Jose Lezcano, 1:41.0)
No surprises here, as Chad Brown wins a stakes on the grass. In Kenzadargent's case, she had to wait on the rail for a long time, but once she got through, it was all over except for the cheering.
Race 11 (Trockette, Tim Richardson-Navin Mangalee, 1:06.1)
A tremendous effort was turned in by Trockette here, especially for a 20/1 first time starter. He dueled four-wide down the backstretch, was three-wide entering the turn, and didn't get tired to hold on for the win.
My pick, Elencino, was five-wide down the backstretch while on that pace, and had no chance once that happened. Bird Humor rated off that duel, yet showed no signs of a rally at all and was a lukewarm fifth. Anyone who bet him was really just disappointing themselves up for disappointment.
That wraps up Memorial Day weekend at Monmouth. Hope all of you guys out there made some money, and had as good of a weekend as Monmouth did. Let's hope better days are shining through for them.
Sunday, May 24, 2015
May 25, 2015: Picks and Analysis
It's Memorial Day at Monmouth Park, which means 11 terrific races, great weather, and hopefully another great crowd and handle. Let's delve into the program.
Weather Forecast: 83*F, Partly Cloudy
It'll be fast and firm once again, as the Monmouth meet has so far been blessed by tremendous weather.
Race 1: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
I'll take the 1, Laghubaar, to begin this one, as he appears to be much faster on paper than the rest of the lineup. He's earned brisnet figures of 89, 89, and 87 in his last three, while only one other horse has earned as high as an 87 in their last three. He ran well last out at 7 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct, making a sweeping move to win, and his pace figures have shown he can either go for the lead and try to go gate-to-wire, or rate off the pace and make that same sweeping move. Not to mention, trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at an impressive 29% clip first start off of the claim. He should improve his percentage with this one.
The 4, Empower, has the second-best figures in the race by a clear-cut margin, and the 1-4 combination may be a good time to play an ice-cold exacta. Check the exacta probables.
The 5, Farmer Jones, has figures that are a cut below the top two, but he does have Paco in the saddle and some awesome workouts coming in. At an 8/5 morning line, however, his odds may be too low for my tastes.
1- Laghubaar (2/1)
4- Empower (5/2)
5- Farmer Jones (8/5)
Race 2: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile and 70 Yards
I'll go the fairly obvious route in here, and select the 6, Allstar. He ran well at Gulfstream over the winter, earning brisnet figures of 86 and 92 in his last two. He's got Paco up, who won three yesterday, to boot. I'm not thrilled with his workouts coming into this race, but I've been burned with horses who didn't look great based on their workouts coming into different races, only to see them win. Even if I have to take a short price, I'm not "shore" if I want Allstar to beat me here.
The 5, Calvello, ran very well at Parx in his last start, but jockey Ramon Moya and trainer Patricia Farro have not been having an especially great meet. Don't discount him completely, though, he can still get the job done at a price.
6- Allstar (2/1)
5- Calvello (4/1)
1- Lure of the South (5/2)
Race 3: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I am willing to discount the last race of the 3, Lookingoutforyou, as he was off the pace on a track that was tilting toward speed. Nonetheless, the figure he earned in that race of 77 is the best last-out number in the field, and his previous numbers of 89 and 80 would blow the field away. He's also got the dangerous trainer-jockey combination of David Jacobson and Andre Worrie, who win just about every race that they team up on. Furthermore, it's his second race off the layoff, and so he should improve off that last effort. He looks much the best in here.
Should he be, I don't know, abducted by aliens during the race, the 2, Brother Mark, made a decent closing rally in his last start, and so did the 5, Neilos. Their figures are good enough that they could win it if Lookingoutforyou doesn't fire for whatever reason.
3- Lookingoutforyou (2/1)
2- Brother Mark (9/2)
5- Neilos (8/1)
Race 4: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's a wide, wide-open field in the fourth, which is refreshing, as I don't expect value on my selections in the first three races.
Anyway, I'll take the 4, Double the Energy. She doesn't have the most early speed in here, but that may prove to be an asset. The morning line favorite, the 3, Indian Splendor, is a turf sprinter stretching out to a mile here. I can easily see Indian Splendor going out to a clear lead, wilting, and having Double the Energy, who has the best recent figures in the field, go past and score. At a 6/1 morning line, with a hot grass trainer, I'd be willing to venture a few dollars on that scenario.
The 9, Taty's Gold, also had great recent numbers, but is stretching out to a route from a sprint as well, and hasn't raced in more than a year. I'll pass on her for the win.
The 1, PJ's Enigma, ran strong numbers at Gulfstream over the winter, but didn't have a great kick in any of them, and is also stretching out.
Oh yeah, and this could've been a twelve horse field, but the rail settings make it so only ten can fit on the grass. Isn't that a shame?
4- Double the Energy (6/1)
9- Taty's Gold (4/1)
1- PJ's Enigma (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's never a safe bet betting a horse who's 0-8 lifetime in a maiden special weight, as they may prove to be chronic losers, but I'll take that risk with the 1, Have a Good Laugh. His numbers are simply better than the rest: his last three are 83, 91, and 88. Only the 5, Rare, has done that consistently in the past, and he's even worse than Have a Good Laugh, going 0-13 lifetime thus far. With the inside post, a good amount of early speed, and Trevor McCarthy riding, he's the most likely winner.
I want to like the 6, Charlesbrecknridge, as I bet him last time out, but he has shown an inability to break cleanly. If he can prove to me here that he can do that, I'll consider him more down the road, but until then, I can't endorse him with a liability like that.
1- Have a Good Laugh (5/2)
6- Charlesbrecknridge (9/2)
3- Tashreeh (2/1)
Race 6: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Memorial Day Jersey Shore 6 begins here, and I'll start it off with the 4, Hyman Roth. He didn't get the job done last time out, on Opening Day here at Monmouth, but was nonetheless close, missing by only 3/4 of a length in a blanket finish. He earned the co-best last out figure there, along with the 2, Discreet Duke, who is also exiting that race. He's earned figures in the low-to-high 80s all throughout the winter, something that no one else in the field can do consistently, and even if he duplicates his last out number, he's got a good chance of winning this one. An improvement, and he'll have it for "shore".
4- Hyman Roth (7/2)
2- Discreet Duke (3/1)
3- Saturday's For Fun (6/1)
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
A field of ten betting interests begins the pick 5 today, and I'll start it off with a horse whose last start is hard to ignore. The 10, James Alex, made up almost 16 lengths in his last start, closing ferociously in his last start at Parx to miss by only a neck. While his figures are not especially great, and he has the outside post, horses have been able to close in sprints recently at Monmouth. Plus, he's got Paco controlling the reins, who represents a jockey upgrade from Jorge Vargas, and he'll likely keep James Alex closer to the pace. If he does that, and uses the same closing rally as last time, he'll "shorely" win this one. He also has the edge of recency; that big race at Parx was in April of this year, and many of his competitors are making their first start of 2015 in this race.
The 4, Greed is Good, ran well in his first start of the year on Opening Day, just missing by a nose. An improvement off that race makes him dangerous. The 5, We B Jammin, ran great figures as a two-year-old last year, but hasn't run since last October.
10- James Alex (7/2)
4- Greed is Good (6/1)
5- We B Jammin (3/1)
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
Lots of early speed, plus proof that you can use that early speed to your advantage, is a formula that often results in victory. It's been working for the 6, Lasso, who has won four consecutive races, all of them on grass, all of them in gate-to-wire style. In fact, if you toss the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes, where he may have been outclassed, he's won six in a row on the grass. This is a horse with a ton of early speed, no one else to really challenge him for the lead, and great speed figures. He looks like the obvious pick.
Now, what if Lasso breaks slowly, or he's somehow outgunned for the lead, or he falls through a trapdoor on the grass down the backstretch? If I knew that was going to happen, I'd take the 5, Canzoni. He's consistent, usually running figures in the high 80s, and has run up to a 96 in the past. He's got good rating ability, so he'll be involved in the exotics, if nothing else. The 8, Chisled, has also shown a knack for running figures in a similar range, and could make a splash at a price.
6- Lasso (7/2)
5- Canzoni (9/2)
8- Chisled (15/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I loved the race that the 3, Little Hitman, ran last out on Opening Day. He rated off the pace, and hung on well, just missing the win as Oak Bluffs, who ran very well to close on a speed-favoring track, got up. That was his first race since September, and he earned an 84 brisnet figure. There's good reason to suggest that he can improve off that field, and with few others having run figures like that before, he's my pick to score here.
The 5, Light's Gone Wild, ran an even bigger figure first of the layoff, earning a 90 while setting an uncontested lead on a speed-favoring track. He could get clear again, but unless the track is speed-favoring again--and unless the track has been playing that way in recent days, and it hasn't been, don't assume it will be--he won't be able to get away with doing that again.
3- Little Hitman (2/1)
6- Candy Mine (15/1)
7- Perry M (4/1)
Race 10: Miss Liberty Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I will pick the queen of these listed stakes on the grass, the 6, Nellie Cashman, to win it here. She's a fixture in these types of races, and won one of them last time out, the Dahlia Stakes at Pimlico. She earned a 98 in that race, and consistently earns figures in the low-to-mid 90s. Forest Boyce ships in from Maryland to ride this one, and her stalking style is one that works in these types of races. A 4/1 morning line is more than a fair price, and she'll be where my money will land in this race.
Also ones to consider are the 8, Cushion, who ran well of the layoff at Aqueduct last out, and the 9, Tokyo Time, who ran two races in the 90s earlier in the year.
6- Nellie Cashman (4/1)
8- Cushion (7/2)
9- Tokyo Time (9/2)
Race 11: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
We come to the finale, a race where the favorite will likely be a horse who lost his only career race, nine months ago, by 28 lengths. That's the 3, Bird Humor, who has been working solidly for Nick Zito at Saratoga in preparation for a comeback, but I'm slightly wary of him, especially when one considers that:
A. He's entering this horse in for a tag, when he could run in a maiden special weight.
B. He's entering the horse at Monmouth, as opposed to Belmont, where the competition would probably be tougher. What does that say about what Zito thinks of his chances?
Now, I might look like a total moron here, and Bird Humor will win for fun, but I'm not betting on it. I'll take the 8, Elencino, who ran well in maiden special weights at Parx over the winter, and has some of the best numbers in the race. He'll be a better price than Bird Humor, too, I figure.
8- Elencino (7/2)
3- Bird Humor (5/2)
1- Way of the Warrior (3/1)
Gates open at 11:30 AM tomorrow, the first race is, as usual, 12:50. Good luck to all playing.
Weather Forecast: 83*F, Partly Cloudy
It'll be fast and firm once again, as the Monmouth meet has so far been blessed by tremendous weather.
Race 1: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
I'll take the 1, Laghubaar, to begin this one, as he appears to be much faster on paper than the rest of the lineup. He's earned brisnet figures of 89, 89, and 87 in his last three, while only one other horse has earned as high as an 87 in their last three. He ran well last out at 7 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct, making a sweeping move to win, and his pace figures have shown he can either go for the lead and try to go gate-to-wire, or rate off the pace and make that same sweeping move. Not to mention, trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at an impressive 29% clip first start off of the claim. He should improve his percentage with this one.
The 4, Empower, has the second-best figures in the race by a clear-cut margin, and the 1-4 combination may be a good time to play an ice-cold exacta. Check the exacta probables.
The 5, Farmer Jones, has figures that are a cut below the top two, but he does have Paco in the saddle and some awesome workouts coming in. At an 8/5 morning line, however, his odds may be too low for my tastes.
1- Laghubaar (2/1)
4- Empower (5/2)
5- Farmer Jones (8/5)
Race 2: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile and 70 Yards
I'll go the fairly obvious route in here, and select the 6, Allstar. He ran well at Gulfstream over the winter, earning brisnet figures of 86 and 92 in his last two. He's got Paco up, who won three yesterday, to boot. I'm not thrilled with his workouts coming into this race, but I've been burned with horses who didn't look great based on their workouts coming into different races, only to see them win. Even if I have to take a short price, I'm not "shore" if I want Allstar to beat me here.
The 5, Calvello, ran very well at Parx in his last start, but jockey Ramon Moya and trainer Patricia Farro have not been having an especially great meet. Don't discount him completely, though, he can still get the job done at a price.
6- Allstar (2/1)
5- Calvello (4/1)
1- Lure of the South (5/2)
Race 3: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I am willing to discount the last race of the 3, Lookingoutforyou, as he was off the pace on a track that was tilting toward speed. Nonetheless, the figure he earned in that race of 77 is the best last-out number in the field, and his previous numbers of 89 and 80 would blow the field away. He's also got the dangerous trainer-jockey combination of David Jacobson and Andre Worrie, who win just about every race that they team up on. Furthermore, it's his second race off the layoff, and so he should improve off that last effort. He looks much the best in here.
Should he be, I don't know, abducted by aliens during the race, the 2, Brother Mark, made a decent closing rally in his last start, and so did the 5, Neilos. Their figures are good enough that they could win it if Lookingoutforyou doesn't fire for whatever reason.
3- Lookingoutforyou (2/1)
2- Brother Mark (9/2)
5- Neilos (8/1)
Race 4: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's a wide, wide-open field in the fourth, which is refreshing, as I don't expect value on my selections in the first three races.
Anyway, I'll take the 4, Double the Energy. She doesn't have the most early speed in here, but that may prove to be an asset. The morning line favorite, the 3, Indian Splendor, is a turf sprinter stretching out to a mile here. I can easily see Indian Splendor going out to a clear lead, wilting, and having Double the Energy, who has the best recent figures in the field, go past and score. At a 6/1 morning line, with a hot grass trainer, I'd be willing to venture a few dollars on that scenario.
The 9, Taty's Gold, also had great recent numbers, but is stretching out to a route from a sprint as well, and hasn't raced in more than a year. I'll pass on her for the win.
The 1, PJ's Enigma, ran strong numbers at Gulfstream over the winter, but didn't have a great kick in any of them, and is also stretching out.
Oh yeah, and this could've been a twelve horse field, but the rail settings make it so only ten can fit on the grass. Isn't that a shame?
4- Double the Energy (6/1)
9- Taty's Gold (4/1)
1- PJ's Enigma (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's never a safe bet betting a horse who's 0-8 lifetime in a maiden special weight, as they may prove to be chronic losers, but I'll take that risk with the 1, Have a Good Laugh. His numbers are simply better than the rest: his last three are 83, 91, and 88. Only the 5, Rare, has done that consistently in the past, and he's even worse than Have a Good Laugh, going 0-13 lifetime thus far. With the inside post, a good amount of early speed, and Trevor McCarthy riding, he's the most likely winner.
I want to like the 6, Charlesbrecknridge, as I bet him last time out, but he has shown an inability to break cleanly. If he can prove to me here that he can do that, I'll consider him more down the road, but until then, I can't endorse him with a liability like that.
1- Have a Good Laugh (5/2)
6- Charlesbrecknridge (9/2)
3- Tashreeh (2/1)
Race 6: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Memorial Day Jersey Shore 6 begins here, and I'll start it off with the 4, Hyman Roth. He didn't get the job done last time out, on Opening Day here at Monmouth, but was nonetheless close, missing by only 3/4 of a length in a blanket finish. He earned the co-best last out figure there, along with the 2, Discreet Duke, who is also exiting that race. He's earned figures in the low-to-high 80s all throughout the winter, something that no one else in the field can do consistently, and even if he duplicates his last out number, he's got a good chance of winning this one. An improvement, and he'll have it for "shore".
4- Hyman Roth (7/2)
2- Discreet Duke (3/1)
3- Saturday's For Fun (6/1)
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
A field of ten betting interests begins the pick 5 today, and I'll start it off with a horse whose last start is hard to ignore. The 10, James Alex, made up almost 16 lengths in his last start, closing ferociously in his last start at Parx to miss by only a neck. While his figures are not especially great, and he has the outside post, horses have been able to close in sprints recently at Monmouth. Plus, he's got Paco controlling the reins, who represents a jockey upgrade from Jorge Vargas, and he'll likely keep James Alex closer to the pace. If he does that, and uses the same closing rally as last time, he'll "shorely" win this one. He also has the edge of recency; that big race at Parx was in April of this year, and many of his competitors are making their first start of 2015 in this race.
The 4, Greed is Good, ran well in his first start of the year on Opening Day, just missing by a nose. An improvement off that race makes him dangerous. The 5, We B Jammin, ran great figures as a two-year-old last year, but hasn't run since last October.
10- James Alex (7/2)
4- Greed is Good (6/1)
5- We B Jammin (3/1)
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
Lots of early speed, plus proof that you can use that early speed to your advantage, is a formula that often results in victory. It's been working for the 6, Lasso, who has won four consecutive races, all of them on grass, all of them in gate-to-wire style. In fact, if you toss the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes, where he may have been outclassed, he's won six in a row on the grass. This is a horse with a ton of early speed, no one else to really challenge him for the lead, and great speed figures. He looks like the obvious pick.
Now, what if Lasso breaks slowly, or he's somehow outgunned for the lead, or he falls through a trapdoor on the grass down the backstretch? If I knew that was going to happen, I'd take the 5, Canzoni. He's consistent, usually running figures in the high 80s, and has run up to a 96 in the past. He's got good rating ability, so he'll be involved in the exotics, if nothing else. The 8, Chisled, has also shown a knack for running figures in a similar range, and could make a splash at a price.
6- Lasso (7/2)
5- Canzoni (9/2)
8- Chisled (15/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I loved the race that the 3, Little Hitman, ran last out on Opening Day. He rated off the pace, and hung on well, just missing the win as Oak Bluffs, who ran very well to close on a speed-favoring track, got up. That was his first race since September, and he earned an 84 brisnet figure. There's good reason to suggest that he can improve off that field, and with few others having run figures like that before, he's my pick to score here.
The 5, Light's Gone Wild, ran an even bigger figure first of the layoff, earning a 90 while setting an uncontested lead on a speed-favoring track. He could get clear again, but unless the track is speed-favoring again--and unless the track has been playing that way in recent days, and it hasn't been, don't assume it will be--he won't be able to get away with doing that again.
3- Little Hitman (2/1)
6- Candy Mine (15/1)
7- Perry M (4/1)
Race 10: Miss Liberty Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I will pick the queen of these listed stakes on the grass, the 6, Nellie Cashman, to win it here. She's a fixture in these types of races, and won one of them last time out, the Dahlia Stakes at Pimlico. She earned a 98 in that race, and consistently earns figures in the low-to-mid 90s. Forest Boyce ships in from Maryland to ride this one, and her stalking style is one that works in these types of races. A 4/1 morning line is more than a fair price, and she'll be where my money will land in this race.
Also ones to consider are the 8, Cushion, who ran well of the layoff at Aqueduct last out, and the 9, Tokyo Time, who ran two races in the 90s earlier in the year.
6- Nellie Cashman (4/1)
8- Cushion (7/2)
9- Tokyo Time (9/2)
Race 11: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
We come to the finale, a race where the favorite will likely be a horse who lost his only career race, nine months ago, by 28 lengths. That's the 3, Bird Humor, who has been working solidly for Nick Zito at Saratoga in preparation for a comeback, but I'm slightly wary of him, especially when one considers that:
A. He's entering this horse in for a tag, when he could run in a maiden special weight.
B. He's entering the horse at Monmouth, as opposed to Belmont, where the competition would probably be tougher. What does that say about what Zito thinks of his chances?
Now, I might look like a total moron here, and Bird Humor will win for fun, but I'm not betting on it. I'll take the 8, Elencino, who ran well in maiden special weights at Parx over the winter, and has some of the best numbers in the race. He'll be a better price than Bird Humor, too, I figure.
8- Elencino (7/2)
3- Bird Humor (5/2)
1- Way of the Warrior (3/1)
Gates open at 11:30 AM tomorrow, the first race is, as usual, 12:50. Good luck to all playing.
Monmouth Racing Recap: 5/24/15
A beautiful day at Monmouth Park led a massive crowd of 26,268 to come out, which is the largest non-Haskell crowd at Monmouth since God knows when. Handle was $5,050,104 today, eclipsing the mark of Memorial Day Sunday last year by more than $400,000. It's great to see business booming at the Shore's Greatest Stretch, and hopefully tomorrow does just as well.
Race 1 (Right on Course, Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, 1:04.1)
If you told me that the winner was trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Daniel Centeno, I would've assumed this race was at Tampa Bay Downs. But it was in fact run at Monmouth, and Right on Course ran a big one, holding off all challenges to get a gate-to-wire score.
Race 2 (Perfect Trippi, Carlos Martin-Abel Castellano, 1:06.2)
Man, I know the horse was trained by Jacobson, and ridden by Paco, and there's a lot of dumb money in the pools on days like this, but I don't think I will ever understand how Hold Everything went off at 3/5. I knew he'd be favored, but betting a horse like that down to 3/5 is absolutely ludicrous. He didn't run that bad of a race, though, as he was dueling for the lead on the inside and held on for a decent third. Of course, Perfect Trippi got a great trip sitting off that duel, and rallied on in the stretch to win and pay a generous $11.
Race 3 (Gombey Dancer, Bobby Dibona-Paco Lopez, 1:10.4)
Tough sailing for favored Wildcatpleasures, who couldn't clear Gombey Dancer for the lead, as the latter pressed him all the way from the inside. When Wildcatpleasures finally wilted, Gombey Dancer shot through on the inside, and it was all over from there. Great job by Paco to apply pressure to the leader, without getting him into a duel. That's why he's the best.
Race 4 (Rockin Alli, Tim Shaw-Angel Serpa, 1:42.3)
In this episode of "Ludicrously Low-Priced Favorites", the entry of Gemonade and Dia de Encanta went off at 1/2. And this was in a race where I thought Just Like Kaki would be favored. She wound up going off at 3/1, and held the lead going into the stretch after sitting a great trip. However, she was overtaken by 30/1 Rockin Alli, who rallied wide into the stretch and got up to win her grass debut. The entry came in second and sixth, respectively, and a lot of money went up in metaphorical flames.
Race 5 (Chatt Hills, Jorge Navarro-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.4)
Chatt Hills at even money was another bad proposition, but at least this one paid off. She was much the best here, too, getting involved in the teeth of a four-way speed duel, only to wind up drawing away and holding on. Red mark for Coral Beach, who sat a beautiful trip off that great duel, but couldn't get by the winner late. She was at least four lengths clear of everyone else involved in the duel, though.
Race 6 (Casual Smile, Chad Brown-Kendrick Carmouche, 1:34.4)
It's tough to discount Chad Brown with a maiden on the grass, and if you had done that here, you would have been poorer for it. She rated well of free-wheeling front runners Fine Instincts and Perfect Extension, and then blew past them late to get up. The race was unfortunately marred when Exceedingly was pulled up going around the first turn. Have not heard any word on her, but hopefully she'll be OK.
Race 7 (Total Joint, Jason Servis-Trevor McCarthy, 1:10.2)
The trip that Total Joint got in this race is the type that horses dream about. He sat off of duelers Hereosaurus Rex and Kovarro, snuck up an opening on the rail on the turn, and drew off to an easy score. You couldn't have drawn it up any better.
Noteworthy in defeat was second-place finisher True Simon, who checked at the start, rallied back up, and made a big three-wide move on the turn to get a clear second. This was only his second lifetime start, so one figures that he will continue to improve. Worth a play next time out, in my opinion.
Race 8 (The Real McCoy, Tim Richardson-Daniel Centeno, 1:35.4)
The Real McCoy ran a similar race to last time, coming from way, way, behind, but this time she managed to get up and score. I wish I could say I had the $7.60 mutuel, but I went out this afternoon and forgot to bet. However, a friend of mine went to Monmouth today, and I gave out this horse to him. Hopefully, he collected on The Real McCoy.
Race 9 (To the Flag, Kathleen O'Connell-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.4)
Trevor McCarthy gets his third winner of the day by riding almost the exact same race he did in the seventh. Here, To The Flag was off a sneeze slow, rated on the rail off a three-fold speed duel, shot through on the inside, and got up for an easy win. Like I said, it was a carbon copy of the seventh race.
Race 10 (All Over Me, Mike Maker-Paco Lopez, 1:49.3)
I wrote before this race that All Over Me might need a race. As it turns out, he didn't. Despite being wide almost the whole way, he scampered clear of the rest of the field in the stretch, battled with Palace Gate down the stretch, and got up to win. He'll only get better in his next start.
And not that he would have won, anyway, but it's worth noting that Mysterious Summer was rating in behind horses and was poised to make a rally, but got caught in behind the fading Longhairedhippy, and lost tons of ground on the turn. If he doesn't get trapped behind the fading leader, who knows how well he does?
Race 11 (Stiffed, John Mazza-Gabriel Saez, 1:41.1)
Gabriel Saez finally snaps his losing streak with this 34/1 longshot winner. In the case of Stiffed, she was way behind early on, while Got Lucky sat a great trip off dueling leaders and looked loaded at the top of the stretch. Unfortunately for her backers, she got leg weary in the last 1/8, and Jersey-bred Stiffed came rolling up four-wide to get the upset score.
Race 12 (Keep the Canoli, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:11.0)
I overthought the horse who had the big edge in the figures, and as it turns out, I shouldn't have. Then again, he only paid $4.20, so I didn't miss out on much.
He, too, sat a good trip, off the pace from the rail. He angled wide in the stretch, rallied past PJ's Magical Wink and Gypsy Baron, and gave Paco Lopez his third winner of the day.
That's how it went down today at Monmouth. See you soon with my analysis of the Memorial Day program.
Race 1 (Right on Course, Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, 1:04.1)
If you told me that the winner was trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Daniel Centeno, I would've assumed this race was at Tampa Bay Downs. But it was in fact run at Monmouth, and Right on Course ran a big one, holding off all challenges to get a gate-to-wire score.
Race 2 (Perfect Trippi, Carlos Martin-Abel Castellano, 1:06.2)
Man, I know the horse was trained by Jacobson, and ridden by Paco, and there's a lot of dumb money in the pools on days like this, but I don't think I will ever understand how Hold Everything went off at 3/5. I knew he'd be favored, but betting a horse like that down to 3/5 is absolutely ludicrous. He didn't run that bad of a race, though, as he was dueling for the lead on the inside and held on for a decent third. Of course, Perfect Trippi got a great trip sitting off that duel, and rallied on in the stretch to win and pay a generous $11.
Race 3 (Gombey Dancer, Bobby Dibona-Paco Lopez, 1:10.4)
Tough sailing for favored Wildcatpleasures, who couldn't clear Gombey Dancer for the lead, as the latter pressed him all the way from the inside. When Wildcatpleasures finally wilted, Gombey Dancer shot through on the inside, and it was all over from there. Great job by Paco to apply pressure to the leader, without getting him into a duel. That's why he's the best.
Race 4 (Rockin Alli, Tim Shaw-Angel Serpa, 1:42.3)
In this episode of "Ludicrously Low-Priced Favorites", the entry of Gemonade and Dia de Encanta went off at 1/2. And this was in a race where I thought Just Like Kaki would be favored. She wound up going off at 3/1, and held the lead going into the stretch after sitting a great trip. However, she was overtaken by 30/1 Rockin Alli, who rallied wide into the stretch and got up to win her grass debut. The entry came in second and sixth, respectively, and a lot of money went up in metaphorical flames.
Race 5 (Chatt Hills, Jorge Navarro-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.4)
Chatt Hills at even money was another bad proposition, but at least this one paid off. She was much the best here, too, getting involved in the teeth of a four-way speed duel, only to wind up drawing away and holding on. Red mark for Coral Beach, who sat a beautiful trip off that great duel, but couldn't get by the winner late. She was at least four lengths clear of everyone else involved in the duel, though.
Race 6 (Casual Smile, Chad Brown-Kendrick Carmouche, 1:34.4)
It's tough to discount Chad Brown with a maiden on the grass, and if you had done that here, you would have been poorer for it. She rated well of free-wheeling front runners Fine Instincts and Perfect Extension, and then blew past them late to get up. The race was unfortunately marred when Exceedingly was pulled up going around the first turn. Have not heard any word on her, but hopefully she'll be OK.
Race 7 (Total Joint, Jason Servis-Trevor McCarthy, 1:10.2)
The trip that Total Joint got in this race is the type that horses dream about. He sat off of duelers Hereosaurus Rex and Kovarro, snuck up an opening on the rail on the turn, and drew off to an easy score. You couldn't have drawn it up any better.
Noteworthy in defeat was second-place finisher True Simon, who checked at the start, rallied back up, and made a big three-wide move on the turn to get a clear second. This was only his second lifetime start, so one figures that he will continue to improve. Worth a play next time out, in my opinion.
Race 8 (The Real McCoy, Tim Richardson-Daniel Centeno, 1:35.4)
The Real McCoy ran a similar race to last time, coming from way, way, behind, but this time she managed to get up and score. I wish I could say I had the $7.60 mutuel, but I went out this afternoon and forgot to bet. However, a friend of mine went to Monmouth today, and I gave out this horse to him. Hopefully, he collected on The Real McCoy.
Race 9 (To the Flag, Kathleen O'Connell-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.4)
Trevor McCarthy gets his third winner of the day by riding almost the exact same race he did in the seventh. Here, To The Flag was off a sneeze slow, rated on the rail off a three-fold speed duel, shot through on the inside, and got up for an easy win. Like I said, it was a carbon copy of the seventh race.
Race 10 (All Over Me, Mike Maker-Paco Lopez, 1:49.3)
I wrote before this race that All Over Me might need a race. As it turns out, he didn't. Despite being wide almost the whole way, he scampered clear of the rest of the field in the stretch, battled with Palace Gate down the stretch, and got up to win. He'll only get better in his next start.
And not that he would have won, anyway, but it's worth noting that Mysterious Summer was rating in behind horses and was poised to make a rally, but got caught in behind the fading Longhairedhippy, and lost tons of ground on the turn. If he doesn't get trapped behind the fading leader, who knows how well he does?
Race 11 (Stiffed, John Mazza-Gabriel Saez, 1:41.1)
Gabriel Saez finally snaps his losing streak with this 34/1 longshot winner. In the case of Stiffed, she was way behind early on, while Got Lucky sat a great trip off dueling leaders and looked loaded at the top of the stretch. Unfortunately for her backers, she got leg weary in the last 1/8, and Jersey-bred Stiffed came rolling up four-wide to get the upset score.
Race 12 (Keep the Canoli, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:11.0)
I overthought the horse who had the big edge in the figures, and as it turns out, I shouldn't have. Then again, he only paid $4.20, so I didn't miss out on much.
He, too, sat a good trip, off the pace from the rail. He angled wide in the stretch, rallied past PJ's Magical Wink and Gypsy Baron, and gave Paco Lopez his third winner of the day.
That's how it went down today at Monmouth. See you soon with my analysis of the Memorial Day program.
Monmouth Racing Recap: 5/23/15
It was a tremendous day business-wise for Monmouth Park, as 23,483 people packed the track, and wagered more than $769,000 on-track. More than $5 million was bet overall, making it by far their best day of the year. Unfortunately, by all accounts, the food truck situation was less-than-great, as lines resembled rides at Disney World during peak season. Monmouth says that the situation will be better tomorrow and Monday, so don't let that deter you from going out, if you were planning on doing so.
Race 1 (Saturday Special, Jorge Navarro-Carlos Marquez, 1:38.0)
The public zoned in on Saturday Special, betting him down to 3/5, and he delivered, rating off the pace and making a three-wide move on the turn to win it. The hard-knocking Ponzi Scheme didn't run too badly either, as he hung on well late, before being run down by his superior rival. Navarro also increased his stock by one, as he claimed fifth-place Start Jumping out of this one. His form has been tanking lately; we'll "sea" if Navarro can reverse it.
Race 2 (Iamahandsomeman, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:39.1)
My pick, Diacetto, was totally left in the dust by the pace scenario, as three horses dashed out to the early lead, leaving all the closers behind. Don't discriminate against any of them coming out of this one; they had no chance given the way the race set up.
Anyway, Iamahandsomeman was able to clear to the front and led all the way. Apple Orchard got a great trip rating off the pace and looked ready to go in the stretch, but hung badly in the lane and only got second. Red flag on him going forward.
Race 3 (Starship Wildcat, Jane Cibelli-Trevor McCarthy, 1:02.1)
It was the first grass sprint of the Monmouth season, and it was a good one. Starship Wildcat was involved in a three-way speed duel early on, and had to tussle with fellow dueler Golden Story the whole way around to get the job done. Terrific race from both of the top two; slightly disappointing from Didn't Take It, who rated off that fast pace, only to get third.
Race 4 (Key to a Cure, Pat Marrotta-Angel Serpa, 1:48.1)
Key to a Cure was the key to curing Angel Serpa's losing streak, as he finally earns his first winner of the Monmouth season with this one. He sat off the pace, rallied three-wide on the turn, and drew off to a score. Paddington Express, my selection, had a similar trip, but couldn't catch the winner.
Race 5 (Carouse, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:44.2)
You could've told me that aliens landed in the infield prior to this race, and I would've believed it before I would believe that Carouse won this race. But I saw the replay, and I can verify that he won. Then again, I said it wasn't a great maiden race, and sometimes in these kind of races, wacky things can happen. Here, it did: he got the lead, and that was pretty much it. Two winners on the day for the Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno combination.
Race 6 (Boss Man, Jason Servis-Joe Bravo, 1:35.2)
Boss Man was a standout on paper, but everyone else knew it, too, and he went off at the extremely low price of 2/5. He ran like he was best, though, as he sat off the pace, weaved his way through traffic on the turn, and got up late to give Jersey Joe Bravo his 5,000th career win. He's a longtime Monmouth fixture, and to see him get his 5,000th is a terrific sight. Congratulations to Joe.
Race 7 (Pacific Image, Derek Ryan-Kendrick Carmouche, 1:05.1)
I take it that dinner was on Derek Ryan last night, as this is his third winner, all of them on the lead. This one, Pacific Image, ran a huge race, dueling two-wide, well ahead of everyone else in the field, and holding off all rivals. The horse he was dueling with, Hengroen, wound up being beaten by 12 lengths. Watch for Pacific Image in his next start--he was tremendous in here.
Race 8 (Lighthouse Sound, Bobby Dibona-Paco Lopez, 1:36.3)
It was a mad scramble late, but Lighthouse Sound sat the best trip, and he shot through late to get up and score. Upgrade the efforts of both Mythical Man and Kitten in May, as both were trapped inside and had to check repeatedly during the running of the race. Kitten in May, notably, got shut out while making a potentially big rally late.
Race 9 (Fake Dreams, Rory Huston-Armando Ayuso, 1:44.2)
Fake Dreams was much, much, much the best in here, getting a stalking trip behind leaders Mint Julius and Ride Ride Ride, only to have nowhere to go both on the turn and in the stretch. After waiting, in the words of Frank Mirahmadi, "an hour and a half", Armando Ayuso finally took him to the outside, where he found a seam and shot through to win. He could've won by way more than three, and will be one to watch next out.
Race 10 (Biedermeier, Todd Pletcher-Paco Lopez, 1:42.0)
A weirdly run race here, as Creaky Cricket used up what was in all likelihood way too much energy trying to go for the early lead. He got it, but was overtaken late by Neoclassic, who had a front-row seat to Creaky Cricket's lead. In turn, Neoclassic got caught late by Biedermeier, proving once and for all that it is hard to discount any horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Paco at Monmouth. He also paid a nifty $8.20, for those with faith in the duo.
Race 11 (Red Vine, Christophe Clement-Joe Bravo, 1:40.2)
I will go more in-depth about this race in my piece on Tuesday, as I am not very happy about it, but I will say now that Red Vine was very impressive, and I'd love to see him tackle the Salvator Mile in his next start.
Race 12 (Trumpet Kaz, James Popovich-Chelsey Keiser, 1:13.1)
This is a pretty prime example of why saving ground in a race is important, as there is no way Zo Zo was not the best horse here. She dueled two-wide the whole way, and looked as if she would hold off all her rivals at the 1/8 pole, but Trumpet Kaz, who rode the rail the whole way, got up to score at 64/1 odds. The pick 5 returned almost $47,000 to one winning ticket. The late pick 4 had two winning tickets of $24,000 each. Congratulations to those that hit it, as there is no way in hell I could have.
Race 1 (Saturday Special, Jorge Navarro-Carlos Marquez, 1:38.0)
The public zoned in on Saturday Special, betting him down to 3/5, and he delivered, rating off the pace and making a three-wide move on the turn to win it. The hard-knocking Ponzi Scheme didn't run too badly either, as he hung on well late, before being run down by his superior rival. Navarro also increased his stock by one, as he claimed fifth-place Start Jumping out of this one. His form has been tanking lately; we'll "sea" if Navarro can reverse it.
Race 2 (Iamahandsomeman, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:39.1)
My pick, Diacetto, was totally left in the dust by the pace scenario, as three horses dashed out to the early lead, leaving all the closers behind. Don't discriminate against any of them coming out of this one; they had no chance given the way the race set up.
Anyway, Iamahandsomeman was able to clear to the front and led all the way. Apple Orchard got a great trip rating off the pace and looked ready to go in the stretch, but hung badly in the lane and only got second. Red flag on him going forward.
Race 3 (Starship Wildcat, Jane Cibelli-Trevor McCarthy, 1:02.1)
It was the first grass sprint of the Monmouth season, and it was a good one. Starship Wildcat was involved in a three-way speed duel early on, and had to tussle with fellow dueler Golden Story the whole way around to get the job done. Terrific race from both of the top two; slightly disappointing from Didn't Take It, who rated off that fast pace, only to get third.
Race 4 (Key to a Cure, Pat Marrotta-Angel Serpa, 1:48.1)
Key to a Cure was the key to curing Angel Serpa's losing streak, as he finally earns his first winner of the Monmouth season with this one. He sat off the pace, rallied three-wide on the turn, and drew off to a score. Paddington Express, my selection, had a similar trip, but couldn't catch the winner.
Race 5 (Carouse, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:44.2)
You could've told me that aliens landed in the infield prior to this race, and I would've believed it before I would believe that Carouse won this race. But I saw the replay, and I can verify that he won. Then again, I said it wasn't a great maiden race, and sometimes in these kind of races, wacky things can happen. Here, it did: he got the lead, and that was pretty much it. Two winners on the day for the Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno combination.
Race 6 (Boss Man, Jason Servis-Joe Bravo, 1:35.2)
Boss Man was a standout on paper, but everyone else knew it, too, and he went off at the extremely low price of 2/5. He ran like he was best, though, as he sat off the pace, weaved his way through traffic on the turn, and got up late to give Jersey Joe Bravo his 5,000th career win. He's a longtime Monmouth fixture, and to see him get his 5,000th is a terrific sight. Congratulations to Joe.
Race 7 (Pacific Image, Derek Ryan-Kendrick Carmouche, 1:05.1)
I take it that dinner was on Derek Ryan last night, as this is his third winner, all of them on the lead. This one, Pacific Image, ran a huge race, dueling two-wide, well ahead of everyone else in the field, and holding off all rivals. The horse he was dueling with, Hengroen, wound up being beaten by 12 lengths. Watch for Pacific Image in his next start--he was tremendous in here.
Race 8 (Lighthouse Sound, Bobby Dibona-Paco Lopez, 1:36.3)
It was a mad scramble late, but Lighthouse Sound sat the best trip, and he shot through late to get up and score. Upgrade the efforts of both Mythical Man and Kitten in May, as both were trapped inside and had to check repeatedly during the running of the race. Kitten in May, notably, got shut out while making a potentially big rally late.
Race 9 (Fake Dreams, Rory Huston-Armando Ayuso, 1:44.2)
Fake Dreams was much, much, much the best in here, getting a stalking trip behind leaders Mint Julius and Ride Ride Ride, only to have nowhere to go both on the turn and in the stretch. After waiting, in the words of Frank Mirahmadi, "an hour and a half", Armando Ayuso finally took him to the outside, where he found a seam and shot through to win. He could've won by way more than three, and will be one to watch next out.
Race 10 (Biedermeier, Todd Pletcher-Paco Lopez, 1:42.0)
A weirdly run race here, as Creaky Cricket used up what was in all likelihood way too much energy trying to go for the early lead. He got it, but was overtaken late by Neoclassic, who had a front-row seat to Creaky Cricket's lead. In turn, Neoclassic got caught late by Biedermeier, proving once and for all that it is hard to discount any horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Paco at Monmouth. He also paid a nifty $8.20, for those with faith in the duo.
Race 11 (Red Vine, Christophe Clement-Joe Bravo, 1:40.2)
I will go more in-depth about this race in my piece on Tuesday, as I am not very happy about it, but I will say now that Red Vine was very impressive, and I'd love to see him tackle the Salvator Mile in his next start.
Race 12 (Trumpet Kaz, James Popovich-Chelsey Keiser, 1:13.1)
This is a pretty prime example of why saving ground in a race is important, as there is no way Zo Zo was not the best horse here. She dueled two-wide the whole way, and looked as if she would hold off all her rivals at the 1/8 pole, but Trumpet Kaz, who rode the rail the whole way, got up to score at 64/1 odds. The pick 5 returned almost $47,000 to one winning ticket. The late pick 4 had two winning tickets of $24,000 each. Congratulations to those that hit it, as there is no way in hell I could have.
Saturday, May 23, 2015
May 24, 2015: Picks and Analysis
Twelve races are on tap for Memorial Day Sunday at Monmouth. Let's try to make some money on them.
Weather Forecast: 75*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Starter Optional Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
It's tough to have a strong opinion in this race, as almost everyone in it has shown a lot of ability at some point in their career, but none of them have shown it recently.
Without being really enthusiastic about it, I will select the 2, Disarm, who ran some nice races at Parx last fall, running brisnet figures of 99, 98, 94, and 90 in the process. I am willing to forgive his less-than-impressive last race, as it was in stakes company in the Claiming Crown Express. Based on the layoff he received after the race, it is entirely possible he was running in that race at less-than-100%, and has built up a worktab at Parx that makes me think that he's rounding back into shape. Furthermore, he's got early speed, and the inside post 2, so he could clear to the lead and use it to draw off to victory.
Other ones to consider are the 4, Anybodyreallyknow, who ran fast in Maryland over the winter, but was inexplicably dull in his last race at Pimlico, the 5, Right on Course, who has virtually the same PP line as Anybodyreallyknow, only he did his running in Florida, and the 6, Seek to Destroy, who has the dangerous David Jacobson-Paco Lopez combination. None of them would surprise me.
2- Disarm (3/1)
4- Anybodyreallyknow (3/1)
5- Right on Course (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
First of all, you may note that the first two races of the day are for older horses and at 5 1/2 furlongs. I just want to take this time to say that I'm no fan of races for older horses at less than 6 furlongs. That needed to be said.
Anyway, the 1, Hold Everything, is the 3/2 favorite in this race, despite doing little last time out--at the $12,500 level! In that race, he was on the pace three-wide, which would be notable if not for the fact that this was a very pronounced speed-favoring track. Despite going off favored, he flattened out badly to finish fifth. Now, two weeks later, he's entered for a pitiful $5,000, after being in for $7,500 more two weeks ago. Color me suspicious. I mean, maybe he's good enough that he'll jump out from post 1 and wire the field, but unless his figures were way, way better than anyone else's (spoiler alert: they're not), I'll look elsewhere.
I'll take the 4, Perfect Trippi, to be specific. He is coming off a long layoff, but in the fall at Aqueduct, he ran brisnet figures of 79, 78, and 81. Only Hold Everything and the 8, Joni's Wildcat, have run similar numbers in their last three starts. He was rather dull in his last effort, finishing seventh at Aqueduct in November, but he was extremely wide that day, so even to run a 79 under those conditions was pretty impressive. He's working well for this race, and he gets the hot jockey, in 30% Abel Castellano. At a 2/1 morning line, I'll take him, while the rest of the betting public flocks to Hold Everything.
4- Perfect Trippi (2/1)
8- Joni's Wildcat (6/1)
1- Hold Everything (3/2)
Race 3: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It may sound bizarre to select a horse who is 0-6 at Monmouth, and 0-11 on fast dirt tracks overall, but I'll take that chance on the 6, Wildcatpleasures. His last figures are some of the tops in the field, earning all numbers in the mid-to-high 80s down in Florida. He hasn't run on the dirt since January, but he had a terrific workout on May 16 at Monmouth, suggesting that he can handle the Monmouth dirt well.
Also one to think about is the 5, Gombey Dancer, who ran well at Gulfstream over the winter, running numbers as high as a 91.
6- Wildcatpleasures (9/5)
5- Gombey Dancer (5/2)
3- Get Creative (4/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Two horses stand out to me here: the 1A, Dia de Encanta, and the 4, Just Like Kaki. I will lean toward Dia de Encanta here, as she ran well in her first route effort last time out, running a 75 figure while pressing the pace wide and managing to hold on for third. This will be her third career start, her second in a route, and I think she has every right to improve in this spot.
Just Like Kaki has run great races before, too, but I'm slightly wary of the "eased" comment in her last race, more than four months ago at Gulfstream. Granted, she's been working steadily for her return, but I'd rather take the fresher horse in this spot instead.
1- Gemonade/1A- Dia de Encanta (2/1)
4- Just Like Kaki (5/2)
9- Silver Bouquet (8/1)
Race 5: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll wrap up the early pick 5 with the 6, Ryabinka. She has both the best last-out figure, with a 77 earned at Gulfstream last out, and the best two-back figure, with an 83. She had horrendous form as a two-year-old, getting beat consistently in stakes races, but appears to have turned a corner with her form, and is looking like much the best in here.
6- Ryabinka (3/1)
3- Chatt Hills (2/1)
7- Coral Beach (4/1)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
Here's a race that's an example of another pet peeve of mine: the fact that there are 14 horses, yet three also-eligibles. In other words, this could be a 12-horse field, but the rail settings make it so that there's only room for 11. I mean, this place is only running three days a week maximum. The track's handle increases drastically with every additional horse added to a race. Unless the grass has really been taking a beating, let the rail settings be normal. The more horses, the better.
Well, now that that rant is over, let's get to the race at hand. The 2, Casual Smile, looks like a standout. She's run three ascending figures: a 77 on February 25 at Gulfstream, an 82 on March 20 at Tampa, and most recently an 89 on April 19 at Aqueduct. All those numbers are tops in the field. Not to mention, she's trained Chad Brown, one of the most astute members of his profession on grass, and has been working well at Saratoga in preparation for this race. She'll be my play in here.
Also one to watch is the 9, Biamonte, who ran well at Gulfstream in the winter, but was less-than-impressive in her last two starts, and is also coming off a long layoff. Another to consider is the 6, Onus, who ran well in her first start on the grass at Keeneland, and has plenty of room to improve off that effort. Watch the board on her.
2- Casual Smile (7/2)
6- Onus (5/1)
9- Biamonte (5/1)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's not the finest of races to begin the Jersey Shore 6, but you can't ignore it if you want to play the sequence, so I will analyze it anyway.
I'll take the 3, Dontflashyourcash in here. He declined noticeably from his previous effort last time out, going from an 83 to a mediocre 68. However, that 68 is still the best last-out number in the field, and it was earned while racing wide the whole way. He still hung on to run a not-bad third, and in a race like this, "not bad" should be enough to get it done.
The 1, Total Joint, has run great figures in the past, but I'm concerned about his three consecutive declining numbers, including his last race at Gulfstream in which he was soundly beaten. He may bounce back, but I wouldn't bet him to win on that proposition.
3- Dontflashyourcash (7/2)
1- Total Joint (3/1)
4- Hunter Grey (20/1)
Race 8: Claiming $30,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
As of this writing, I have not looked at Monday's card, but I am already convinced that the 5, The Real McCoy, will be my best bet of the weekend. Her last start, on May 10 here at Monmouth, was one of the biggest I've seen all meet. She broke slowly, was way behind almost the whole way, and still rallied strongly down the stretch to miss by only a half-length, making up 15 1/2 lengths in the process. Furthermore, her figure of 81 is the best last-out number in the field by a large margin, and her overall form is better than anyone else. She's a pick 5 single to me.
5- The Real McCoy (7/2)
7- Eire En Pointe (3/1)
2- Forest Funds (5/2)
Race 9: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll take the 6, To the Flag, in this one. She's been running continually improving figures, peaking at a field-best 83 last out at Tampa. She's got early speed, but not enough so that she'll be burned on the early lead; rather she can sit off the pace and rally on by. She's no cinch, but a solid win bet, and a cornerstone of any pick 4 or pick 5 play.
Also ones to consider are the 3, Mongolian Honey, who has speed on the inside, and the 7, More Than Special, who ran some great figures last year on the synthetic track at Woodbine.
6- To the Flag (5/2)
3- Mongolian Honey (3/1)
7- More Than Special (7/2)'
Race 10: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
A wide open bunch of n/w2 horses will face the starter here, and in a race like this, I'll take a bit of a price--the 2, Eddie G. Both trainer Dennis Ward and jockey Andre Worrie have been having good seasons, and he took to the Monmouth grass well last out, He's run slowly escalating figures, earning a 73 in his last start, which isn't super-far off the high in the field. If he keeps improving, he could get the job done at a big price.
Should he respond well off the layoff, the 7, All Over Me, will be dangerous, but I'm not "shore" about a horse who hasn't run since December, and has been working terribly for this race. He may need a race. The 9, I Will, has been running decent figures at this level at Gulfstream, and is one to consider for exotics.
2- Eddie G (8/1)
9- I Will (8/1)
11- Gallant Pursuit (8/1)
Race 11: Monmouth Beach Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles
The Sunday feature drew a compact field of eight, all of whom have a decent shot of winning. I'll select the classiest entrant in the field--the 6, Got Lucky. She was the runner-up in two Kentucky Oaks preps last year, and only missed by three lengths in the Alabama last year at Saratoga. Her most recent figures, earned at Gulfstream over the winter, are the best in the field, at a 98, 94, and 92. She's working well for this race, trainer Todd Pletcher hits well at horses off a layoff, and I think all systems will be go for this race. She's my play.
Longshots to consider are the 4, Amblin Easy, who has been running well in allowance company at Parx, and the 8, Stiffed, a Jersey-bred who won twice at Monmouth last year.
6- Got Lucky (3/1)
4- Amblin Easy (12/1)
8- Stiffed (12/1)
Race 12: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
On the notably speed-biased track of May 10, the 1, I'mtrulyinthemood, was one of the few to rally and do well, coming from eight lengths back to finish second. Running on a fairer track, I'm not "shore" if he's a cinch, but at 6/1, he's definitely worth a play.
The 3, Keep the Canoli, has the best figures in the field, but is taking a steep drop in class and has been working slowly for this one. As the likely favorite, he probably won't be worth it.
1- I'mtrulyinthemood (6/1)
3- Keep the Canoli (2/1)
4- Bea Wildcat (9/2)
Weather Forecast: 75*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Starter Optional Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
It's tough to have a strong opinion in this race, as almost everyone in it has shown a lot of ability at some point in their career, but none of them have shown it recently.
Without being really enthusiastic about it, I will select the 2, Disarm, who ran some nice races at Parx last fall, running brisnet figures of 99, 98, 94, and 90 in the process. I am willing to forgive his less-than-impressive last race, as it was in stakes company in the Claiming Crown Express. Based on the layoff he received after the race, it is entirely possible he was running in that race at less-than-100%, and has built up a worktab at Parx that makes me think that he's rounding back into shape. Furthermore, he's got early speed, and the inside post 2, so he could clear to the lead and use it to draw off to victory.
Other ones to consider are the 4, Anybodyreallyknow, who ran fast in Maryland over the winter, but was inexplicably dull in his last race at Pimlico, the 5, Right on Course, who has virtually the same PP line as Anybodyreallyknow, only he did his running in Florida, and the 6, Seek to Destroy, who has the dangerous David Jacobson-Paco Lopez combination. None of them would surprise me.
2- Disarm (3/1)
4- Anybodyreallyknow (3/1)
5- Right on Course (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
First of all, you may note that the first two races of the day are for older horses and at 5 1/2 furlongs. I just want to take this time to say that I'm no fan of races for older horses at less than 6 furlongs. That needed to be said.
Anyway, the 1, Hold Everything, is the 3/2 favorite in this race, despite doing little last time out--at the $12,500 level! In that race, he was on the pace three-wide, which would be notable if not for the fact that this was a very pronounced speed-favoring track. Despite going off favored, he flattened out badly to finish fifth. Now, two weeks later, he's entered for a pitiful $5,000, after being in for $7,500 more two weeks ago. Color me suspicious. I mean, maybe he's good enough that he'll jump out from post 1 and wire the field, but unless his figures were way, way better than anyone else's (spoiler alert: they're not), I'll look elsewhere.
I'll take the 4, Perfect Trippi, to be specific. He is coming off a long layoff, but in the fall at Aqueduct, he ran brisnet figures of 79, 78, and 81. Only Hold Everything and the 8, Joni's Wildcat, have run similar numbers in their last three starts. He was rather dull in his last effort, finishing seventh at Aqueduct in November, but he was extremely wide that day, so even to run a 79 under those conditions was pretty impressive. He's working well for this race, and he gets the hot jockey, in 30% Abel Castellano. At a 2/1 morning line, I'll take him, while the rest of the betting public flocks to Hold Everything.
4- Perfect Trippi (2/1)
8- Joni's Wildcat (6/1)
1- Hold Everything (3/2)
Race 3: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It may sound bizarre to select a horse who is 0-6 at Monmouth, and 0-11 on fast dirt tracks overall, but I'll take that chance on the 6, Wildcatpleasures. His last figures are some of the tops in the field, earning all numbers in the mid-to-high 80s down in Florida. He hasn't run on the dirt since January, but he had a terrific workout on May 16 at Monmouth, suggesting that he can handle the Monmouth dirt well.
Also one to think about is the 5, Gombey Dancer, who ran well at Gulfstream over the winter, running numbers as high as a 91.
6- Wildcatpleasures (9/5)
5- Gombey Dancer (5/2)
3- Get Creative (4/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Two horses stand out to me here: the 1A, Dia de Encanta, and the 4, Just Like Kaki. I will lean toward Dia de Encanta here, as she ran well in her first route effort last time out, running a 75 figure while pressing the pace wide and managing to hold on for third. This will be her third career start, her second in a route, and I think she has every right to improve in this spot.
Just Like Kaki has run great races before, too, but I'm slightly wary of the "eased" comment in her last race, more than four months ago at Gulfstream. Granted, she's been working steadily for her return, but I'd rather take the fresher horse in this spot instead.
1- Gemonade/1A- Dia de Encanta (2/1)
4- Just Like Kaki (5/2)
9- Silver Bouquet (8/1)
Race 5: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll wrap up the early pick 5 with the 6, Ryabinka. She has both the best last-out figure, with a 77 earned at Gulfstream last out, and the best two-back figure, with an 83. She had horrendous form as a two-year-old, getting beat consistently in stakes races, but appears to have turned a corner with her form, and is looking like much the best in here.
6- Ryabinka (3/1)
3- Chatt Hills (2/1)
7- Coral Beach (4/1)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
Here's a race that's an example of another pet peeve of mine: the fact that there are 14 horses, yet three also-eligibles. In other words, this could be a 12-horse field, but the rail settings make it so that there's only room for 11. I mean, this place is only running three days a week maximum. The track's handle increases drastically with every additional horse added to a race. Unless the grass has really been taking a beating, let the rail settings be normal. The more horses, the better.
Well, now that that rant is over, let's get to the race at hand. The 2, Casual Smile, looks like a standout. She's run three ascending figures: a 77 on February 25 at Gulfstream, an 82 on March 20 at Tampa, and most recently an 89 on April 19 at Aqueduct. All those numbers are tops in the field. Not to mention, she's trained Chad Brown, one of the most astute members of his profession on grass, and has been working well at Saratoga in preparation for this race. She'll be my play in here.
Also one to watch is the 9, Biamonte, who ran well at Gulfstream in the winter, but was less-than-impressive in her last two starts, and is also coming off a long layoff. Another to consider is the 6, Onus, who ran well in her first start on the grass at Keeneland, and has plenty of room to improve off that effort. Watch the board on her.
2- Casual Smile (7/2)
6- Onus (5/1)
9- Biamonte (5/1)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's not the finest of races to begin the Jersey Shore 6, but you can't ignore it if you want to play the sequence, so I will analyze it anyway.
I'll take the 3, Dontflashyourcash in here. He declined noticeably from his previous effort last time out, going from an 83 to a mediocre 68. However, that 68 is still the best last-out number in the field, and it was earned while racing wide the whole way. He still hung on to run a not-bad third, and in a race like this, "not bad" should be enough to get it done.
The 1, Total Joint, has run great figures in the past, but I'm concerned about his three consecutive declining numbers, including his last race at Gulfstream in which he was soundly beaten. He may bounce back, but I wouldn't bet him to win on that proposition.
3- Dontflashyourcash (7/2)
1- Total Joint (3/1)
4- Hunter Grey (20/1)
Race 8: Claiming $30,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
As of this writing, I have not looked at Monday's card, but I am already convinced that the 5, The Real McCoy, will be my best bet of the weekend. Her last start, on May 10 here at Monmouth, was one of the biggest I've seen all meet. She broke slowly, was way behind almost the whole way, and still rallied strongly down the stretch to miss by only a half-length, making up 15 1/2 lengths in the process. Furthermore, her figure of 81 is the best last-out number in the field by a large margin, and her overall form is better than anyone else. She's a pick 5 single to me.
5- The Real McCoy (7/2)
7- Eire En Pointe (3/1)
2- Forest Funds (5/2)
Race 9: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll take the 6, To the Flag, in this one. She's been running continually improving figures, peaking at a field-best 83 last out at Tampa. She's got early speed, but not enough so that she'll be burned on the early lead; rather she can sit off the pace and rally on by. She's no cinch, but a solid win bet, and a cornerstone of any pick 4 or pick 5 play.
Also ones to consider are the 3, Mongolian Honey, who has speed on the inside, and the 7, More Than Special, who ran some great figures last year on the synthetic track at Woodbine.
6- To the Flag (5/2)
3- Mongolian Honey (3/1)
7- More Than Special (7/2)'
Race 10: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
A wide open bunch of n/w2 horses will face the starter here, and in a race like this, I'll take a bit of a price--the 2, Eddie G. Both trainer Dennis Ward and jockey Andre Worrie have been having good seasons, and he took to the Monmouth grass well last out, He's run slowly escalating figures, earning a 73 in his last start, which isn't super-far off the high in the field. If he keeps improving, he could get the job done at a big price.
Should he respond well off the layoff, the 7, All Over Me, will be dangerous, but I'm not "shore" about a horse who hasn't run since December, and has been working terribly for this race. He may need a race. The 9, I Will, has been running decent figures at this level at Gulfstream, and is one to consider for exotics.
2- Eddie G (8/1)
9- I Will (8/1)
11- Gallant Pursuit (8/1)
Race 11: Monmouth Beach Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles
The Sunday feature drew a compact field of eight, all of whom have a decent shot of winning. I'll select the classiest entrant in the field--the 6, Got Lucky. She was the runner-up in two Kentucky Oaks preps last year, and only missed by three lengths in the Alabama last year at Saratoga. Her most recent figures, earned at Gulfstream over the winter, are the best in the field, at a 98, 94, and 92. She's working well for this race, trainer Todd Pletcher hits well at horses off a layoff, and I think all systems will be go for this race. She's my play.
Longshots to consider are the 4, Amblin Easy, who has been running well in allowance company at Parx, and the 8, Stiffed, a Jersey-bred who won twice at Monmouth last year.
6- Got Lucky (3/1)
4- Amblin Easy (12/1)
8- Stiffed (12/1)
Race 12: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
On the notably speed-biased track of May 10, the 1, I'mtrulyinthemood, was one of the few to rally and do well, coming from eight lengths back to finish second. Running on a fairer track, I'm not "shore" if he's a cinch, but at 6/1, he's definitely worth a play.
The 3, Keep the Canoli, has the best figures in the field, but is taking a steep drop in class and has been working slowly for this one. As the likely favorite, he probably won't be worth it.
1- I'mtrulyinthemood (6/1)
3- Keep the Canoli (2/1)
4- Bea Wildcat (9/2)
Friday, May 22, 2015
May 23, 2015: Picks and Anaylsis
It's the first day of the annual, much-anticipated Food Truck Festival at Monmouth Park, which also means that it kicks off Memorial Day weekend here at the Shore's Greatest Stretch. 106 horses passed the box for a solid 12-race card, headlined by the Majestic Light Stakes. Let's get started.
Weather Forecast: 70*F, Sunny
Race 1: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
We begin the Saturday card with a wide-open claiming contest going one mile over the main track. My selection here will be the 1, Saturday Special, who dramatically improved last out at Tampa under trainer Jorge Navarro, earning a 95 brisnet speed figure that is tops in the field. Even going beyond his Navarro days, he's won his last three dirt routes, and has displayed the ability to rate and roll on by consistently. With Gaining Ground, the main speed, directly to his outside in post 2, there's a good chance that Saturday Special will draft in behind that leader, and just roll on by late to an easy score.
Also worthy of mention are the 6, Ponzi Scheme, a hard-knocking veteran who has run well against much better in his last few, and the 2, Gaining Ground, who has the aforementioned early speed.
1- Saturday Special (8/5)
6- Ponzi Scheme (5/1)
2- Gaining Ground (3/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
It's not every day that you select a horse who has been coming off steeplechase races in a dirt maiden claimer, but that's what I'll do here with the 2, Diacetto. In his lone dirt start, on November 21 at Churchill, at a similar level, he was way, way behind early on, before launching a serious rally to miss by a head. Following that race, he was transferred to the barn of Jack Fisher, who tried to make him into a jumper. His two efforts over fences were dull at best, so now he's back to a surface that he likes against a field that he should win against.
My only two problems with him are (1) Monmouth does have the tendency to play toward speed, and while a bettor should never bet as if there is going to be a bias without strong evidence, it is something to keep in mind, and (2) one must wonder about the effects steeplechase racing with have on Diacetto; after all, he ran at 2 1/2 miles only three weeks ago. Nonetheless, no one else in the field really has much of a case, so he'll be my pick.
2- Diacetto (5/1)
3- Apple Orchard (9/5)
4- Bull Ensign (2/1)
Race 3: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
It's the first grass sprint of the Monmouth Park season. These 5 1/2 furlong races start out of a unique chute, which cuts through the infield before the field enters the main grass track at around the 7/16 pole.
Anyway, this one was a very tough race, and one where you could go in several different directions. Tentatively, I went with the 3, Starship Wildcat. He's the only one of the bunch to run consistently strong figures, earning an 83, 84, and 86 in his last three starts at Gulfstream. In his last race, despite breaking from the inside, he was forced wide into the stretch, only to rally strongly and win by a head. The second place finisher in that race, Delta Bluesman, came back to win his next start. I cannot say that Starship Wildcat is a cinch for "shore", but he'll be my play in here.
My second choice here is the 1, Franklin, whose numbers have been a tick below Starship Wildcat's, but he has early speed and the ever-dangerous Jorge Navarro training. Also under consideration are the 6, Didn't Take It, who ran a big figure of 90 but has the ice-cold Gabriel Saez in the saddle, and the 4, Ominous Thomas, who won twice at this distance last year, but hasn't run since October.
By the way, last year, Franklin was ridden in back-to-back starts by Rosie Napravnik and Juan Saez. Reminded me of how much I miss them both.
3- Starship Wildcat (3/1)
1- Franklin (7/2)
6- Didn't Take It (7/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
Even though he was annihilated last time out, the 3, Paddington Express, is my play here. His last start is easily excusable, as it was on the grass, and he was extremely wide almost the whole way. It's little wonder that he tired. Now, he gets back to dirt, a surface where he's won two out of his last three races, and has the best brisnet figures in the field by far, including a very good 82 in his last dirt effort at Pimlico. It would take either a huge improvement by someone else or a big transgression by Paddington Express for him to lose here, and that's why he's my play.
3- Paddington Express (3/1)
8- No Nukes (5/2)
1- Hawkeye Jimmie (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Once in a while, you'll see an interesting maiden special weight route--maybe there's some well-bred horses, or some promising first-time starters, or even a budding star in the field.
This is not one of those maiden races.
With no one in the field having shown much form in their winless careers, I'll take a shot with the 6, MJ's Warrior. He's the only one in the field to crack 80 on the brisnet scale, and was solid in that effort, closing from the back of the pack to miss by a length and a half at Laurel. Should he improve off that last effort--and he definitely can--he should win this one.
6- MJ's Warrior (3/1)
4- Talent Show (10/1)
2- Strike Em Down (6/1)
Race 6: Claiming $35,000 (n2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
In this race, the 2, Boss Man, appears to be a standout. His last three races on the grass were an 84, 84, and 88. No one else in the field even touches those numbers, giving Boss Man the rare distinction of being a "triple fig" horse. So even if he regresses by a few points, it would take improvement by the rest of the field to be able to catch him. If he stays at his 2/1 morning line, that would make him a great bet.
Furthermore, this is also my pick for Joe Bravo to get his 5,000th career win. Hopefully, he'll get it with Boss Man.
Also worth noting are the 1, Royal Caviar, and the 1A, My Enigma, both of whom have run a 78 and an 82 in their last two starts. Both of them made tremendous closing rallies in their last starts, only to just miss. Expect similar rallies from both of them this time out.
2- Boss Man (2/1)
1- Royal Caviar/1A- My Enigma (7/2)
8- Pirradazis (9/2)
Race 7: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The opening leg of the Jersey Shore 6 appears to run through the two horses in the middle of the field--the 4, Joey Whispers, and the 5, Street Brawl. Both have similar brisnet figures: Joey Whispers's last three races earned an 86, 76, and 86, while Street Brawl did 85, 83, and 84. The main difference between the two is that Joey Whispers almost never runs a winning race. In fact, in his last two races at Pimlico, he set the pace and was caught both times.
Street Brawl, in contrast, is the kind of horse that usually catches Joey Whispers. In two out of his last three races, he's stalked the pace and come on to get by. I see a similar setup emerging in this race; so much so that I would be inclined to bet a cold Street Brawl-Joey Whispers exacta, something that I usually don't do.
5- Street Brawl (7/2)
4- Joey Whispers (5/2)
2- Exchange the Limit (8/1)
Race 8: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's another race where it's very wide-open; you could make a case for plenty of runners in here. I eventually settled on the 1, Mythical Man. He's one of the few in the field to run consistently good figures, with an 82, 87, and 86 in his last three. He's also taking a drop in class, down from a n/w1x allowance at Tampa back down to the claiming level, where he succeeded.
I was originally going to pick the 4, Treasury Devil, who was fast last year on the NYRA circuit, but hasn't raced on the grass since November, and his workouts leading up to this race have been less-than-impressive. Somethings tells me that he needs this race to get back into form, and will be worth looking at more next out.
1- Mythical Man (9/2)
4- Treasury Devil (5/1)
3- Kitten in May (6/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 1 Mile 70 Yards
This Jersey-bred allowance kicks off the late pick-4, and I'll start it off with the 2, Ride Ride Ride. He hasn't won in a while, to be "shore", but his last two races, both at Parx this winter, were an 84 and 86 on the brisnet scale. The only one to come close to those numbers consistently is the 4, Beautiful Joe, who is making his third start off the layoff and ran an 89 first start back, but I am un"shore" about him stretching out from a sprint to a route. Both horses are dangerous regardless.
Note, by the way, that this is the first race of the annual "Survival at the Shore" contest. Log onto survivalattheshore.com for more information, and to register.
2- Ride Ride Ride (7/2)
4- Beautiful Joe (5/1)
8- Social Network (8/1)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
It's become a common theme today--a wide open race that several horses could win. Of course, this is a good thing, as it's way better for handle to have these kind of competitive races. After all, where's the fun in betting a string of 3/5 shots in every race?
Anyway, I pick the 1, Neoclassic, in this spot. Trainer Marcus Vitali has been sneakily good with his grass starters, already having two wins on the lawn this season. In his last start, at Pimlico, at a similar level, he was compromised by a bad start, yet quickly got back into contention and only missed by two lengths. With a better start, he should return to the mid-80s figures he had been running, which would enable him to win this one.
The 9, Irish Strait, ran great first off the layoff last out, and has the sharp grass training of Graham Motion, but is being ridden by the 0-26 Angel Serpa. Buyer beware unless he gets hot as the card goes on.
Also worth noting at a price is the 3, Signature Look, who made a big improvement to win last out at Belmont. At a 12/1 morning line, he may be one to look at.
1- Neoclassic (4/1)
9- Irish Strait (5/1)
3- Signature Look (12/1)
Race 11: Majestic Light Stakes, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
A bulky field of 11 has congregated for this stakes race, and the prime contenders appear to be clustered to the outside. I selected the 8, Cousin Stephen, coming off a near miss against similar in the Stymie Stakes at Aqueduct last out. He led almost the whole way around there, only to be nipped in the last stride. In his last two before that at Parx, he was able to pull off the gate-to-wire move, earning two great figures of 102 and 107. If he had a better post, he'd be close to a cinch, but I have confidence that he'll be able to be on or near the lead, and get the job done.
Others to consider are the 9, Red Vine, who got a great stalking trip last out at Aqueduct and scored easily, and the 10, Souper Lucky, who ran a huge number three back at Laurel. Be wary of the morning line favorite, the 2, Valid, who appears a cut below my top three selections based on figures.
8- Cousin Stephen (5/1)
9- Red Vine (9/2)
10- Souper Lucky (5/1)
Race 12: Claiming $7,500 (n2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
No imagination needed in the nightcap. The 9, Zo Zo, has tons of early speed and the two best last-out figures in the field by a mile, at 76 and 71, respectively. Her win last out at the open claiming level means that she should be able to handle the n2L class pretty easily. Her 3/1 morning line in real life would mean that Christmas came early.
9- Zo Zo (3/1)
4- Give Me Love (5/1)
7- Skirt Stake (4/1)
That's my opinion on the Saturday program. First race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck to everyone, especially those playing the Survival at the Shore contest.
Weather Forecast: 70*F, Sunny
Race 1: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
We begin the Saturday card with a wide-open claiming contest going one mile over the main track. My selection here will be the 1, Saturday Special, who dramatically improved last out at Tampa under trainer Jorge Navarro, earning a 95 brisnet speed figure that is tops in the field. Even going beyond his Navarro days, he's won his last three dirt routes, and has displayed the ability to rate and roll on by consistently. With Gaining Ground, the main speed, directly to his outside in post 2, there's a good chance that Saturday Special will draft in behind that leader, and just roll on by late to an easy score.
Also worthy of mention are the 6, Ponzi Scheme, a hard-knocking veteran who has run well against much better in his last few, and the 2, Gaining Ground, who has the aforementioned early speed.
1- Saturday Special (8/5)
6- Ponzi Scheme (5/1)
2- Gaining Ground (3/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
It's not every day that you select a horse who has been coming off steeplechase races in a dirt maiden claimer, but that's what I'll do here with the 2, Diacetto. In his lone dirt start, on November 21 at Churchill, at a similar level, he was way, way behind early on, before launching a serious rally to miss by a head. Following that race, he was transferred to the barn of Jack Fisher, who tried to make him into a jumper. His two efforts over fences were dull at best, so now he's back to a surface that he likes against a field that he should win against.
My only two problems with him are (1) Monmouth does have the tendency to play toward speed, and while a bettor should never bet as if there is going to be a bias without strong evidence, it is something to keep in mind, and (2) one must wonder about the effects steeplechase racing with have on Diacetto; after all, he ran at 2 1/2 miles only three weeks ago. Nonetheless, no one else in the field really has much of a case, so he'll be my pick.
2- Diacetto (5/1)
3- Apple Orchard (9/5)
4- Bull Ensign (2/1)
Race 3: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
It's the first grass sprint of the Monmouth Park season. These 5 1/2 furlong races start out of a unique chute, which cuts through the infield before the field enters the main grass track at around the 7/16 pole.
Anyway, this one was a very tough race, and one where you could go in several different directions. Tentatively, I went with the 3, Starship Wildcat. He's the only one of the bunch to run consistently strong figures, earning an 83, 84, and 86 in his last three starts at Gulfstream. In his last race, despite breaking from the inside, he was forced wide into the stretch, only to rally strongly and win by a head. The second place finisher in that race, Delta Bluesman, came back to win his next start. I cannot say that Starship Wildcat is a cinch for "shore", but he'll be my play in here.
My second choice here is the 1, Franklin, whose numbers have been a tick below Starship Wildcat's, but he has early speed and the ever-dangerous Jorge Navarro training. Also under consideration are the 6, Didn't Take It, who ran a big figure of 90 but has the ice-cold Gabriel Saez in the saddle, and the 4, Ominous Thomas, who won twice at this distance last year, but hasn't run since October.
By the way, last year, Franklin was ridden in back-to-back starts by Rosie Napravnik and Juan Saez. Reminded me of how much I miss them both.
3- Starship Wildcat (3/1)
1- Franklin (7/2)
6- Didn't Take It (7/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
Even though he was annihilated last time out, the 3, Paddington Express, is my play here. His last start is easily excusable, as it was on the grass, and he was extremely wide almost the whole way. It's little wonder that he tired. Now, he gets back to dirt, a surface where he's won two out of his last three races, and has the best brisnet figures in the field by far, including a very good 82 in his last dirt effort at Pimlico. It would take either a huge improvement by someone else or a big transgression by Paddington Express for him to lose here, and that's why he's my play.
3- Paddington Express (3/1)
8- No Nukes (5/2)
1- Hawkeye Jimmie (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Once in a while, you'll see an interesting maiden special weight route--maybe there's some well-bred horses, or some promising first-time starters, or even a budding star in the field.
This is not one of those maiden races.
With no one in the field having shown much form in their winless careers, I'll take a shot with the 6, MJ's Warrior. He's the only one in the field to crack 80 on the brisnet scale, and was solid in that effort, closing from the back of the pack to miss by a length and a half at Laurel. Should he improve off that last effort--and he definitely can--he should win this one.
6- MJ's Warrior (3/1)
4- Talent Show (10/1)
2- Strike Em Down (6/1)
Race 6: Claiming $35,000 (n2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
In this race, the 2, Boss Man, appears to be a standout. His last three races on the grass were an 84, 84, and 88. No one else in the field even touches those numbers, giving Boss Man the rare distinction of being a "triple fig" horse. So even if he regresses by a few points, it would take improvement by the rest of the field to be able to catch him. If he stays at his 2/1 morning line, that would make him a great bet.
Furthermore, this is also my pick for Joe Bravo to get his 5,000th career win. Hopefully, he'll get it with Boss Man.
Also worth noting are the 1, Royal Caviar, and the 1A, My Enigma, both of whom have run a 78 and an 82 in their last two starts. Both of them made tremendous closing rallies in their last starts, only to just miss. Expect similar rallies from both of them this time out.
2- Boss Man (2/1)
1- Royal Caviar/1A- My Enigma (7/2)
8- Pirradazis (9/2)
Race 7: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The opening leg of the Jersey Shore 6 appears to run through the two horses in the middle of the field--the 4, Joey Whispers, and the 5, Street Brawl. Both have similar brisnet figures: Joey Whispers's last three races earned an 86, 76, and 86, while Street Brawl did 85, 83, and 84. The main difference between the two is that Joey Whispers almost never runs a winning race. In fact, in his last two races at Pimlico, he set the pace and was caught both times.
Street Brawl, in contrast, is the kind of horse that usually catches Joey Whispers. In two out of his last three races, he's stalked the pace and come on to get by. I see a similar setup emerging in this race; so much so that I would be inclined to bet a cold Street Brawl-Joey Whispers exacta, something that I usually don't do.
5- Street Brawl (7/2)
4- Joey Whispers (5/2)
2- Exchange the Limit (8/1)
Race 8: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's another race where it's very wide-open; you could make a case for plenty of runners in here. I eventually settled on the 1, Mythical Man. He's one of the few in the field to run consistently good figures, with an 82, 87, and 86 in his last three. He's also taking a drop in class, down from a n/w1x allowance at Tampa back down to the claiming level, where he succeeded.
I was originally going to pick the 4, Treasury Devil, who was fast last year on the NYRA circuit, but hasn't raced on the grass since November, and his workouts leading up to this race have been less-than-impressive. Somethings tells me that he needs this race to get back into form, and will be worth looking at more next out.
1- Mythical Man (9/2)
4- Treasury Devil (5/1)
3- Kitten in May (6/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 1 Mile 70 Yards
This Jersey-bred allowance kicks off the late pick-4, and I'll start it off with the 2, Ride Ride Ride. He hasn't won in a while, to be "shore", but his last two races, both at Parx this winter, were an 84 and 86 on the brisnet scale. The only one to come close to those numbers consistently is the 4, Beautiful Joe, who is making his third start off the layoff and ran an 89 first start back, but I am un"shore" about him stretching out from a sprint to a route. Both horses are dangerous regardless.
Note, by the way, that this is the first race of the annual "Survival at the Shore" contest. Log onto survivalattheshore.com for more information, and to register.
2- Ride Ride Ride (7/2)
4- Beautiful Joe (5/1)
8- Social Network (8/1)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
It's become a common theme today--a wide open race that several horses could win. Of course, this is a good thing, as it's way better for handle to have these kind of competitive races. After all, where's the fun in betting a string of 3/5 shots in every race?
Anyway, I pick the 1, Neoclassic, in this spot. Trainer Marcus Vitali has been sneakily good with his grass starters, already having two wins on the lawn this season. In his last start, at Pimlico, at a similar level, he was compromised by a bad start, yet quickly got back into contention and only missed by two lengths. With a better start, he should return to the mid-80s figures he had been running, which would enable him to win this one.
The 9, Irish Strait, ran great first off the layoff last out, and has the sharp grass training of Graham Motion, but is being ridden by the 0-26 Angel Serpa. Buyer beware unless he gets hot as the card goes on.
Also worth noting at a price is the 3, Signature Look, who made a big improvement to win last out at Belmont. At a 12/1 morning line, he may be one to look at.
1- Neoclassic (4/1)
9- Irish Strait (5/1)
3- Signature Look (12/1)
Race 11: Majestic Light Stakes, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
A bulky field of 11 has congregated for this stakes race, and the prime contenders appear to be clustered to the outside. I selected the 8, Cousin Stephen, coming off a near miss against similar in the Stymie Stakes at Aqueduct last out. He led almost the whole way around there, only to be nipped in the last stride. In his last two before that at Parx, he was able to pull off the gate-to-wire move, earning two great figures of 102 and 107. If he had a better post, he'd be close to a cinch, but I have confidence that he'll be able to be on or near the lead, and get the job done.
Others to consider are the 9, Red Vine, who got a great stalking trip last out at Aqueduct and scored easily, and the 10, Souper Lucky, who ran a huge number three back at Laurel. Be wary of the morning line favorite, the 2, Valid, who appears a cut below my top three selections based on figures.
8- Cousin Stephen (5/1)
9- Red Vine (9/2)
10- Souper Lucky (5/1)
Race 12: Claiming $7,500 (n2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
No imagination needed in the nightcap. The 9, Zo Zo, has tons of early speed and the two best last-out figures in the field by a mile, at 76 and 71, respectively. Her win last out at the open claiming level means that she should be able to handle the n2L class pretty easily. Her 3/1 morning line in real life would mean that Christmas came early.
9- Zo Zo (3/1)
4- Give Me Love (5/1)
7- Skirt Stake (4/1)
That's my opinion on the Saturday program. First race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck to everyone, especially those playing the Survival at the Shore contest.
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
Tuesday Thoughts
We have a day until the entries for Saturday's card come out, so here's some random thoughts on this quiet Tuesday:
- One thing that NYRA remains the undisputed leader in racing in is their social media: youtube, instagram, twitter, facebook, all of it is top-of-the-line. Monmouth: not so much. Their twitter is infrequent at best, their instagram isn't updated anymore, and their youtube channel, with the exception of the wonderful videos with Mike Curci and Brad Thomas, hasn't been updated in eons. That's definitely one area that Monmouth can improve on, in my opinion. Wouldn't it be awesome to see photos of each day's racing action on instagram and/or twitter (i.e. Santa Anita), or the occasional cool old race on youtube (i.e. NYRA)?
- I know the likelihood of this happening should he win the Triple Crown is slim, but if I was Monmouth, I would be pulling out all the stops to court Zayat and Baffert to bring American Pharaoh to the Haskell. Could you imagine if he wins the Triple Crown, shows up to Monmouth, and the race is marketed well? There could be 50,000 people there for the Haskell. It would be one of the biggest, if not the biggest day of racing in Monmouth's history.
- Larry Boy's loss in the eleventh race on Sunday ended the streak of David Jacobson and Andre Worrie winning every race they had teamed up on thus far at the Monmouth season. I really thought they had a shot of being perfect all year.
- Shoutout to Jose Ferrer, who has been having a terrific start to the season, going 6-24, good for a tie for first atop atop the jockey standings. On the opposite side, both Angel Serpa and Gabriel Saez have started 0-26 for the meet. Until they snap out of their streaks, I'm avoiding their horses at the windows.
- Speaking of jockeys, Jersey Joe Bravo has had one winner from thirteen mounts on the season, as he sits at 4,999 career wins. He has one mount at Belmont Park tomorrow, then no more until Saturday. "Shore" would be awkward if he won on that horse.
- In the great article on americasbestracing.com about new announcer Frank Mirahmadi, he mentions that he will taking a break in June to fill in at Santa Anita for Trevor Denman. This means two things:
- 1. That despite the presence of dormant SoCal announcers Vic Stauffer and Ed Burgart, or any announcer anywhere in the country not currently active, Santa Anita couldn't find anyone else to fill in besides Frank. Unless they didn't want anyone else besides Frank, even though he's working on literally the exact opposite end of the country.
2. Someone else will be calling at Monmouth for a good two weeks. I figure it will be one of the guys at the Meadowlands, but still, my great call last year of "Maybe Tonight, definitely today!" should shorely place me under consideration.
Those are all the important thoughts I have for today. Really looking forward to what is "shore" to be a great Memorial Day weekend of racing at Monmouth Park.
Sunday, May 17, 2015
Monmouth Racing Recap: 5/17/15
The dirt was fast and the grass was firm, as more than 5,000 people--including long-time announcer Larry Collmus--filed into Monmouth Park for a Sunday afternoon of racing. The expected rain happily never materialized.
Race 1 (Peter Castleboy, Eddie Broome-Abel Castellano, 1:40.2)
As it turns out, my selection of Peter Castleboy was not an original thought (who could've guessed?) as he went off at an insane 2/5. He was much the best, however, rating four-wide down the backstretch, moving in the two and three-path down the stretch, and holding off the challenges of inside-running Run Slado Run to score.
Race 2 (Golden Bird, Tim Ice-Trevor McCarthy, 1:41.2)
I'm gonna take a stand and say this will be the strangest race run this year at Monmouth. Full Pads was allowed an absurdly large early lead, stretching the margin to twelve lengths at one point. Unsurprisingly, he tired from this effort, and Golden Bird--making his debut in a cheap maiden claiming--rallied from way behind to get up and win it. Fictionalcharacter, sent off at 2/5, tried to come on late, but came up short to score second, and prove that he will probably never win a race for as long as he lives.
Also worthy of note is Ignatius, who checked hard and stumbled going around the first turn, then was pulled up and vanned off. Here's hoping that he's OK.
Race 3 (Calamity Kate, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:37.4)
Kelly Breen and Paco Lopez team up for the first of what is "shore" to be many winners at this meet. This one, Calamity Kate, was coming off a six-month layoff, but managed to clear to the lead and won when no one else in the field managed to run a step. I'm not "shore" if this is because the track was playing toward speed (spoiler alert: it wasn't) or if everyone else just didn't run great. I think it's the latter. Buyer beware for next time.
Race 4 (Hoopskirt, Patrick Quick-Wilmer Garcia, 1:12.3)
An auspicious start to this race, as both Notably Awesome and Rocket Dee broke through the gate before the start of the race. Notably Awesome recovered to run second--something to keep in mind for next time out, perhaps--but Rocket Dee never got into the race and finished last. This is also something to remember, as she had a pretty solid excuse for crapping the bed here.
As to the winner, Hoopskirt sat behind Notably Awesome's pace and rallied for the win once she got clear on the inside.
Race 5 (Royal Six Shooter, Chuck Spina-Navin Mangalee, 1:13.0)
Action Tonight ran much better than either her 13/1 odds or her last race at Pimlico would suggest. She was hustled to the early lead, held off most challengers toward the stretch, and only grudingly let pace dream-trip Royal Six Shooter on by. This may be a filly who is improving--we'll see how things go for her in the future.
Confrontational, whose form was cratering before this race, was scratched. The way she was going, that move was definitely for the best, as running her here may have caused her to fall to the ground and break into thousands of tiny little pieces.
Race 6 (My Jersey Boy, Skip Einhorn-Nik Juarez, 1:44.1)
My Jersey Boy may have won, but it's likely that Silent Critic was the best in here. He was on the rail the whole way and about to make a big rally on the inside, but was checked numerous times down the lane, leaving him with no chance at all to make a run. If he gets clear next time, watch out.
Smart race-riding here by Nik Juarez, too, as he kept My Jersey Boy on the rail almost the whole way around, angled out for clear sailing, and it was just a matter of rolling past the front-runners. A $21.80 winner in a race that, had I known Wildcat Runner would be scratched before post time, may have led me to this horse. You can't win 'em all, I guess.
Race 7 (Arnhem, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:10.4)
Arnhem was much, much, much the best in here, doing just what it said she'd do on paper--go to the lead, and hold it. She cleared all her rivals, set fast fractions, and didn't tire to draw off and win easily. Her time of 1:10.4 was the fastest of the day at six furlongs by far. Very nice score; we'll see if she'll be in for a higher tag than $6,000 next out.
Race 8 (Boot Scootin Daddy, Ben Perkins-Joe Bravo, 1:33.4)
Somebody knew something about Boot Scootin Daddy, as this first-time starter was bet down to be a heavy even-money favorite. It was good information, too, as he sat a great trip off a hot pace, rallied three-wide in the stretch, and exploded late to give Joe Bravo career win 4,999 in a very impressive time. While I am not sure how well he would do in a tougher situation, I am really looking forward to seeing his next start. We'll see if he's the real deal then--this one was promising.
Race 9 (Musket Mary, Gerald Bennett-Chelsey Keiser, 1:11.3)
Musket Mary had this race served to her on a silver platter--she was rated well off a blazing pace, picked up the pieces with a sharp rail rally, and drew off easily. I doubt she'll get an easier trip again, ever, so watch out next out.
Race 10 (Sawyer, Jane Cibelli-Trevor McCarthy, 1:35.3)
First of all, I would like to point out that that the final time of this n/w1x allowance was almost two seconds slower than Boot Scootin Daddy ran in his maiden win. My Lord!
As to this race, Sawyer sat a good trip behind the three speeds, and rallied when he got clear to get up and score. Tela made a decent move after being in the two-path almost the whole way to run second.
Race 11 (Al's Best, John Tammaro-Vladimir Diaz, 1:12.4)
Yourthekingjimmy went off favored and could not have asked for a better trip, sitting directly behind the eventual fading speed of Clowney. He couldn't hold off the flying charge of Al's Best, however, who closed from nowhere to pull off an upset score. He missed second, too, as Naughty Delite made up some mild ground to get the place spot.
That wraps up the second weekend of Monmouth Park racing. I'll see you guys Friday, for some analysis of what is "shore" to be an exciting Memorial Day weekend of racing.
Race 1 (Peter Castleboy, Eddie Broome-Abel Castellano, 1:40.2)
As it turns out, my selection of Peter Castleboy was not an original thought (who could've guessed?) as he went off at an insane 2/5. He was much the best, however, rating four-wide down the backstretch, moving in the two and three-path down the stretch, and holding off the challenges of inside-running Run Slado Run to score.
Race 2 (Golden Bird, Tim Ice-Trevor McCarthy, 1:41.2)
I'm gonna take a stand and say this will be the strangest race run this year at Monmouth. Full Pads was allowed an absurdly large early lead, stretching the margin to twelve lengths at one point. Unsurprisingly, he tired from this effort, and Golden Bird--making his debut in a cheap maiden claiming--rallied from way behind to get up and win it. Fictionalcharacter, sent off at 2/5, tried to come on late, but came up short to score second, and prove that he will probably never win a race for as long as he lives.
Also worthy of note is Ignatius, who checked hard and stumbled going around the first turn, then was pulled up and vanned off. Here's hoping that he's OK.
Race 3 (Calamity Kate, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:37.4)
Kelly Breen and Paco Lopez team up for the first of what is "shore" to be many winners at this meet. This one, Calamity Kate, was coming off a six-month layoff, but managed to clear to the lead and won when no one else in the field managed to run a step. I'm not "shore" if this is because the track was playing toward speed (spoiler alert: it wasn't) or if everyone else just didn't run great. I think it's the latter. Buyer beware for next time.
Race 4 (Hoopskirt, Patrick Quick-Wilmer Garcia, 1:12.3)
An auspicious start to this race, as both Notably Awesome and Rocket Dee broke through the gate before the start of the race. Notably Awesome recovered to run second--something to keep in mind for next time out, perhaps--but Rocket Dee never got into the race and finished last. This is also something to remember, as she had a pretty solid excuse for crapping the bed here.
As to the winner, Hoopskirt sat behind Notably Awesome's pace and rallied for the win once she got clear on the inside.
Race 5 (Royal Six Shooter, Chuck Spina-Navin Mangalee, 1:13.0)
Action Tonight ran much better than either her 13/1 odds or her last race at Pimlico would suggest. She was hustled to the early lead, held off most challengers toward the stretch, and only grudingly let pace dream-trip Royal Six Shooter on by. This may be a filly who is improving--we'll see how things go for her in the future.
Confrontational, whose form was cratering before this race, was scratched. The way she was going, that move was definitely for the best, as running her here may have caused her to fall to the ground and break into thousands of tiny little pieces.
Race 6 (My Jersey Boy, Skip Einhorn-Nik Juarez, 1:44.1)
My Jersey Boy may have won, but it's likely that Silent Critic was the best in here. He was on the rail the whole way and about to make a big rally on the inside, but was checked numerous times down the lane, leaving him with no chance at all to make a run. If he gets clear next time, watch out.
Smart race-riding here by Nik Juarez, too, as he kept My Jersey Boy on the rail almost the whole way around, angled out for clear sailing, and it was just a matter of rolling past the front-runners. A $21.80 winner in a race that, had I known Wildcat Runner would be scratched before post time, may have led me to this horse. You can't win 'em all, I guess.
Race 7 (Arnhem, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:10.4)
Arnhem was much, much, much the best in here, doing just what it said she'd do on paper--go to the lead, and hold it. She cleared all her rivals, set fast fractions, and didn't tire to draw off and win easily. Her time of 1:10.4 was the fastest of the day at six furlongs by far. Very nice score; we'll see if she'll be in for a higher tag than $6,000 next out.
Race 8 (Boot Scootin Daddy, Ben Perkins-Joe Bravo, 1:33.4)
Somebody knew something about Boot Scootin Daddy, as this first-time starter was bet down to be a heavy even-money favorite. It was good information, too, as he sat a great trip off a hot pace, rallied three-wide in the stretch, and exploded late to give Joe Bravo career win 4,999 in a very impressive time. While I am not sure how well he would do in a tougher situation, I am really looking forward to seeing his next start. We'll see if he's the real deal then--this one was promising.
Race 9 (Musket Mary, Gerald Bennett-Chelsey Keiser, 1:11.3)
Musket Mary had this race served to her on a silver platter--she was rated well off a blazing pace, picked up the pieces with a sharp rail rally, and drew off easily. I doubt she'll get an easier trip again, ever, so watch out next out.
Race 10 (Sawyer, Jane Cibelli-Trevor McCarthy, 1:35.3)
First of all, I would like to point out that that the final time of this n/w1x allowance was almost two seconds slower than Boot Scootin Daddy ran in his maiden win. My Lord!
As to this race, Sawyer sat a good trip behind the three speeds, and rallied when he got clear to get up and score. Tela made a decent move after being in the two-path almost the whole way to run second.
Race 11 (Al's Best, John Tammaro-Vladimir Diaz, 1:12.4)
Yourthekingjimmy went off favored and could not have asked for a better trip, sitting directly behind the eventual fading speed of Clowney. He couldn't hold off the flying charge of Al's Best, however, who closed from nowhere to pull off an upset score. He missed second, too, as Naughty Delite made up some mild ground to get the place spot.
That wraps up the second weekend of Monmouth Park racing. I'll see you guys Friday, for some analysis of what is "shore" to be an exciting Memorial Day weekend of racing.
Saturday, May 16, 2015
May 17, 2015: Picks and Analysis
While the Monmouth Park higher-ups are likely having dreams of American Pharaoh winning the Haskell, following his dominating score in the Preakness, there will be racing Sunday in Oceanport. We got 11 races on tap, so let's get started...
Weather Forecast: 81*F, Thunderstorms
We dodged the bullet of rain yesterday, but today, there will likely be an off-track thanks to some overnight rain. Picks for dirt and grass are here, as such...
Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n2L) 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Nothing terribly interesting in the opener, as Peter Castleboy's recent figures at Gulfstream Park (83 and 84, respectively, two and three back) would blow this field away. Even his rating last out, 73, would likely get the job done here, and the combination of Monmouth-ready Eddie Broome and the hot jockey Abel Castellano helps his case.
5- Peter Castleboy (8/5)
2- Improvised Brush (5/2)
6- Pot Roast (9/2)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
It only took his connections thirteen losing starts for Fictionalcharacter's connections to get him out of his personal hell known as New York, and ship him to Monmouth to compete at the lowest tag he ever has. Regardless, he looks much the best: he's run second twice in his last four, and has run numbers of 68, 70, and 71. Meanwhile, I am not sure if the rest of the horses he is facing even have four legs each. I will have to check the post parade to confirm that.
Fictionalcharacter's not much, but in this one, he's a standout. If he's an 8/5 morning line, however, don't get excited about his win value.
2- Fictionalcharacter (8/5)
1- Golden Bird (3/1)
7- Thenewmanintown (6/1)
P.S. when you select a horse who is 0-28 lifetime for third, you can tell this is not an all-star bunch. I'll stop piling on here and move on to the next one.
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
You might mistake Monmouth for the Meadowlands, with them running so many races at one mile early in the card. But I digress.
Anyway, I'll take the 2, Miss Wilby, in here. In her last race, going a mile at Gulfstream, she sat a great trip behind duelers, and got up to win by 3/4 of a length. She ran an 87 in that one, the second-best last-out figure in the race, and her previous numbers of 90 and 88 indicate consistent, solid form.
Should Miss Wilby falter, my top alternative is Calamity Kate, who ran a strong 89 while finishing second to the splashtastic Condo Commando in the Demosielle, but hasn't run since. The only question is how she does off the long layoff.
2- Miss Wilby (3/1)
4- Calamity Kate (2/1)
3- Dragonberry (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a full, wide-open field of claimers here going 3/4 of a mile. I select the 10, Souperion, who ran some of the best numbers in the field this winter at Tampa, earning a 69, a 74, and a 77 in her last three. She's making the switch from grass to dirt in this one, which should be a benefit to her, and trainer Tom McCooey hits at 23% with shippers.
Also one to consider at a price is the 2, Callmewhachuwant, who runs consistently steady figures, but hasn't won in, roughly, a million years. I can definitely see her clunking up for some exotic placing, however, so keep her in mind. Also ones to consider are the 8, Rocket Dee, who ran great over the Monmouth track last year, the 9, So Frank, with the training of the hot Dennis Ward and the riding of the hot Andre Worrie, and, at a price, the 4, Pica Pica, whose best is only a few ticks below what it takes to win this one. If no one else fires, she could be the one to win it at big odds.
10- Souparion (3/1)
2- Callmewhachuwant (8/1)
8- Rocket Dee (7/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
As I mentioned in the previous post, Dennis Ward's been having a good training season, going 2-for-5 thus far. He's sending out my pick in this one, the 8, Harumi, who has the riding of Paco Lopez to go along with Ward. She didn't run too badly last out, chasing the winner last out to earn a field-best number of 64. I expect a similar run here, but hopefully this time with the part of her passing by to win.
Be Smitten doesn't look too bad either, earning a 63 last out in her first start at Pimlico. She certainly has room to improve here.
And beware of betting the 6, Confrontational, at 5/2 odds. In her last start, on Opening Day here, she was beaten a dismal 16 lengths with no real excuse.
8- Harumi (2/1)
7- Be Smitten (9/2)
2- Hadassa Babe (5/1)
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
My selection on both dirt and grass is the 6, Wildcat Runner. I am willing to discount his last race, as he has since returned to the worktab, working an OK :50.3 here at Monmouth on May 10. If anything, it means that he was able to adequately bounce back from whatever plagued him in his last at Gulfstream, and his previous form saw him run two figures on grass of 71 and 72, putting him as the apparent best in the bunch. He also displayed early speed, so if that's an indication, he should be able to grab the early lead and not look back. In his one dirt start in his PPs, he ran an 81 at Gulfstream, earning it with a terrific closing rally. It shows that he has form on both surfaces, and should execute it well.
Grass:
6- Wildcat Runner (5/2)
9- Wall Street (4/1)
5- Knight at Di Disco (6/1)
Dirt:
6- Wildcat Runner
3- Silent Critic
2- Constantine
Race 7: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Whenever a horse has both good speed figures and early speed, that's a sign that they're a good bet. When the horse is 7/2, that makes it even more appealing. Such is the situation with the 8, Arnhem. Her last race, which earned an 85 brisnet figure, is indictive of a big effort coming here. If she didn't have the far outside post, she would look even better, but as is she looks to be very sharp.
My other selections are the 7, Flashy Zee, who should benefit from a big drop in class, and the 4, Chippette, who came close a bunch of times over the winter at Tampa, and has to be considered for exotic placings.
8- Arnhem (7/2)
7- Flashy Zee (3/1)
4- Chippette (6/1)
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
My grass selection to begin the late pick 4 here is the 2, Deep Consideration. He ran steadily improving figures at Gulfstream over the winter, most recently earning a solid 80 while just missing near the lead. He has speed on the inside, so he should get some good placement and be able to score, especially in a field that is as inexperienced as this one is.
On the dirt, I will select the 9, Leflore County, who ran good figures on the dirt over the winter at Oaklawn and Keeneland. He ran a solid 84 at Oaklawn over a muddy track, which he will likely encounter should he compete in a dirt race today. His trainer, Bobby Dibona, also claimed him out of his last, and he hits at 20% with that angle. Leflore County has all the makings of a good play should the race be moved to dirt.
Grass:
2- Deep Consideration (3/1)
8- Warrior's Instinct (5/1)
5- Fleafit Dryer (7/2)
Dirt:
9- Leflore County
8- Warrior's Instinct
2- Deep Consideration
Race 9: Claiming $12,500 (n2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Look no further than the first horse you see to find my selection. The 1, Nicki Flash, has the best last-out number on dirt by a longshot, earning an 84 last time on dirt at Delaware Park last August. Nobody else in the field even sniffs those numbers. While her last two races at Gulfstream, both in turf sprints, were not impressive, she appears to have since recovered with a set of good workouts at Monmouth. Both trainer Eddie Plesa and jockey Angel Serpa have had slow starts to the Monmouth season, and I think this will be the horse that will jump-start their year at the Jersey shore.
Also of note are the 4, Twisted Kick, who had a big gate-to-wire score here on Opening Day, and Scuba Sue, the 8, who disappointed last out but has run big numbers in the past.
1- Nicki Flash (5/2)
4- Twisted Kick (7/2)
8- Scuba Sue (2/1)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
The Sunday feature is a very wide-open affair, but eventually I settled on the 4, Scorpion Aly. She had a great meet at Gulfstream, running very good figures, and last out in Pimlico, she regressed to a 79 (down from the mid-80s of the winter). However, it was still a strong effort; as she was on the pace and wide throughout, only to just miss by a nose. I expect her to improve off that last race, and improvement would mean a victory.
If this race has to be transferred to dirt, I'll take the 11, Sunday Sonnet, as she appears to be the only one in the bunch to have shown even an iota of good dirt form recently. It's a field made for grass, that's for "shore".
Grass:
4- Scorpion Aly (7/2)
10- Sawyer (9/2)
1- Zloty (3/1)
Dirt:
11- Sunday Sonnet
4- Scorpion Aly
7- Queen Corey
Race 11: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll wrap up the weekend by taking the 3, Our Posse. In his last start, he made a solid closing rally at Parx to just get up for second, making his second consecutive figure in the mid-to-high 60s, which should win this race.
If he can't win this one, I'll take the 2, Yourthekingjimmy, who, despite his mis-spelled name, ran some decent races at Aqueduct over the winter, along with the 7, Larry Boy, with the ever-dangerous David Jacobson-Andre Worrie duo.
3- Our Posse (7/2)
7- Larry Boy (5/2)
2- Yourthekingjimmy (3/1)
That's my thoughts on Sunday's card. As always, the first race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Best of luck to everyone playing.
Weather Forecast: 81*F, Thunderstorms
We dodged the bullet of rain yesterday, but today, there will likely be an off-track thanks to some overnight rain. Picks for dirt and grass are here, as such...
Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n2L) 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Nothing terribly interesting in the opener, as Peter Castleboy's recent figures at Gulfstream Park (83 and 84, respectively, two and three back) would blow this field away. Even his rating last out, 73, would likely get the job done here, and the combination of Monmouth-ready Eddie Broome and the hot jockey Abel Castellano helps his case.
5- Peter Castleboy (8/5)
2- Improvised Brush (5/2)
6- Pot Roast (9/2)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
It only took his connections thirteen losing starts for Fictionalcharacter's connections to get him out of his personal hell known as New York, and ship him to Monmouth to compete at the lowest tag he ever has. Regardless, he looks much the best: he's run second twice in his last four, and has run numbers of 68, 70, and 71. Meanwhile, I am not sure if the rest of the horses he is facing even have four legs each. I will have to check the post parade to confirm that.
Fictionalcharacter's not much, but in this one, he's a standout. If he's an 8/5 morning line, however, don't get excited about his win value.
2- Fictionalcharacter (8/5)
1- Golden Bird (3/1)
7- Thenewmanintown (6/1)
P.S. when you select a horse who is 0-28 lifetime for third, you can tell this is not an all-star bunch. I'll stop piling on here and move on to the next one.
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
You might mistake Monmouth for the Meadowlands, with them running so many races at one mile early in the card. But I digress.
Anyway, I'll take the 2, Miss Wilby, in here. In her last race, going a mile at Gulfstream, she sat a great trip behind duelers, and got up to win by 3/4 of a length. She ran an 87 in that one, the second-best last-out figure in the race, and her previous numbers of 90 and 88 indicate consistent, solid form.
Should Miss Wilby falter, my top alternative is Calamity Kate, who ran a strong 89 while finishing second to the splashtastic Condo Commando in the Demosielle, but hasn't run since. The only question is how she does off the long layoff.
2- Miss Wilby (3/1)
4- Calamity Kate (2/1)
3- Dragonberry (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a full, wide-open field of claimers here going 3/4 of a mile. I select the 10, Souperion, who ran some of the best numbers in the field this winter at Tampa, earning a 69, a 74, and a 77 in her last three. She's making the switch from grass to dirt in this one, which should be a benefit to her, and trainer Tom McCooey hits at 23% with shippers.
Also one to consider at a price is the 2, Callmewhachuwant, who runs consistently steady figures, but hasn't won in, roughly, a million years. I can definitely see her clunking up for some exotic placing, however, so keep her in mind. Also ones to consider are the 8, Rocket Dee, who ran great over the Monmouth track last year, the 9, So Frank, with the training of the hot Dennis Ward and the riding of the hot Andre Worrie, and, at a price, the 4, Pica Pica, whose best is only a few ticks below what it takes to win this one. If no one else fires, she could be the one to win it at big odds.
10- Souparion (3/1)
2- Callmewhachuwant (8/1)
8- Rocket Dee (7/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
As I mentioned in the previous post, Dennis Ward's been having a good training season, going 2-for-5 thus far. He's sending out my pick in this one, the 8, Harumi, who has the riding of Paco Lopez to go along with Ward. She didn't run too badly last out, chasing the winner last out to earn a field-best number of 64. I expect a similar run here, but hopefully this time with the part of her passing by to win.
Be Smitten doesn't look too bad either, earning a 63 last out in her first start at Pimlico. She certainly has room to improve here.
And beware of betting the 6, Confrontational, at 5/2 odds. In her last start, on Opening Day here, she was beaten a dismal 16 lengths with no real excuse.
8- Harumi (2/1)
7- Be Smitten (9/2)
2- Hadassa Babe (5/1)
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
My selection on both dirt and grass is the 6, Wildcat Runner. I am willing to discount his last race, as he has since returned to the worktab, working an OK :50.3 here at Monmouth on May 10. If anything, it means that he was able to adequately bounce back from whatever plagued him in his last at Gulfstream, and his previous form saw him run two figures on grass of 71 and 72, putting him as the apparent best in the bunch. He also displayed early speed, so if that's an indication, he should be able to grab the early lead and not look back. In his one dirt start in his PPs, he ran an 81 at Gulfstream, earning it with a terrific closing rally. It shows that he has form on both surfaces, and should execute it well.
Grass:
6- Wildcat Runner (5/2)
9- Wall Street (4/1)
5- Knight at Di Disco (6/1)
Dirt:
6- Wildcat Runner
3- Silent Critic
2- Constantine
Race 7: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Whenever a horse has both good speed figures and early speed, that's a sign that they're a good bet. When the horse is 7/2, that makes it even more appealing. Such is the situation with the 8, Arnhem. Her last race, which earned an 85 brisnet figure, is indictive of a big effort coming here. If she didn't have the far outside post, she would look even better, but as is she looks to be very sharp.
My other selections are the 7, Flashy Zee, who should benefit from a big drop in class, and the 4, Chippette, who came close a bunch of times over the winter at Tampa, and has to be considered for exotic placings.
8- Arnhem (7/2)
7- Flashy Zee (3/1)
4- Chippette (6/1)
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
My grass selection to begin the late pick 4 here is the 2, Deep Consideration. He ran steadily improving figures at Gulfstream over the winter, most recently earning a solid 80 while just missing near the lead. He has speed on the inside, so he should get some good placement and be able to score, especially in a field that is as inexperienced as this one is.
On the dirt, I will select the 9, Leflore County, who ran good figures on the dirt over the winter at Oaklawn and Keeneland. He ran a solid 84 at Oaklawn over a muddy track, which he will likely encounter should he compete in a dirt race today. His trainer, Bobby Dibona, also claimed him out of his last, and he hits at 20% with that angle. Leflore County has all the makings of a good play should the race be moved to dirt.
Grass:
2- Deep Consideration (3/1)
8- Warrior's Instinct (5/1)
5- Fleafit Dryer (7/2)
Dirt:
9- Leflore County
8- Warrior's Instinct
2- Deep Consideration
Race 9: Claiming $12,500 (n2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Look no further than the first horse you see to find my selection. The 1, Nicki Flash, has the best last-out number on dirt by a longshot, earning an 84 last time on dirt at Delaware Park last August. Nobody else in the field even sniffs those numbers. While her last two races at Gulfstream, both in turf sprints, were not impressive, she appears to have since recovered with a set of good workouts at Monmouth. Both trainer Eddie Plesa and jockey Angel Serpa have had slow starts to the Monmouth season, and I think this will be the horse that will jump-start their year at the Jersey shore.
Also of note are the 4, Twisted Kick, who had a big gate-to-wire score here on Opening Day, and Scuba Sue, the 8, who disappointed last out but has run big numbers in the past.
1- Nicki Flash (5/2)
4- Twisted Kick (7/2)
8- Scuba Sue (2/1)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
The Sunday feature is a very wide-open affair, but eventually I settled on the 4, Scorpion Aly. She had a great meet at Gulfstream, running very good figures, and last out in Pimlico, she regressed to a 79 (down from the mid-80s of the winter). However, it was still a strong effort; as she was on the pace and wide throughout, only to just miss by a nose. I expect her to improve off that last race, and improvement would mean a victory.
If this race has to be transferred to dirt, I'll take the 11, Sunday Sonnet, as she appears to be the only one in the bunch to have shown even an iota of good dirt form recently. It's a field made for grass, that's for "shore".
Grass:
4- Scorpion Aly (7/2)
10- Sawyer (9/2)
1- Zloty (3/1)
Dirt:
11- Sunday Sonnet
4- Scorpion Aly
7- Queen Corey
Race 11: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll wrap up the weekend by taking the 3, Our Posse. In his last start, he made a solid closing rally at Parx to just get up for second, making his second consecutive figure in the mid-to-high 60s, which should win this race.
If he can't win this one, I'll take the 2, Yourthekingjimmy, who, despite his mis-spelled name, ran some decent races at Aqueduct over the winter, along with the 7, Larry Boy, with the ever-dangerous David Jacobson-Andre Worrie duo.
3- Our Posse (7/2)
7- Larry Boy (5/2)
2- Yourthekingjimmy (3/1)
That's my thoughts on Sunday's card. As always, the first race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Best of luck to everyone playing.
Monmouth Racing Recap: 5/16/15
More than 8,000 people came out to Monmouth today, as handle was up about $32,000 compared to the equivalent day last year. Here's how the card went down:
Race 1 (Pelekas Beach, Cathal Lynch-Victor Carrero, 1:12.2)
Rocket Man Richie looked as if he would be much the best, as he dueled in the three-path the whole way and started to draw off in the stretch. However, Pelekas Beach--who was in the two-path on the pace--re-rallied on the inside and got up for an improbable score. I can't tell if this was because Pelekas Beach had a ton of heart, or if Rocket Man Richie just stopped abruptly. Probably a combination of both.
Race 2 (Our Hazel, Douglas Nunn-Navin Mangalee, 1:06.3)
It was one of the more painfully sluggish loads we've seen so far this season, as both Roman Sister and Our Hazel displayed a complete and utter disdain for wanting to load into the gate. Roman Sister did not display any interest in racing today, but Our Hazel did, sitting well off the pace, rallying up the rail, and getting up to score. Lots of credit must be given to Twist and Turn, who held on well in her first career start. At this level next out, she'll be one to consider.
Race 3 (Boss's Rules, Pat Marrotta-Nik Juarez, 1:11.4)
Boss's Rules was a standout on paper, and ran like it, stalking the pace, drawing alongside leader Flashy Brass, and drawing off to a ridiculously easy six-length score to give Nik Juarez his first win of the meet. There was a brief objection, as Flashy Brass had to take up coming around the turn, but the stewards correctly ruled that it didn't matter, as Boss's Rules could've won if she was running through a swamp.
Race 4 (Dirty Blonde, Dimitrios Synnefias-Edwin Gonzalez, 1:46.2)
Idontknowgoaskanni was a bettable price for most of the wagering, before going down to a soberingly realistic even money. She was wide almost the entire way around, was asked to go at the 3/8 pole, and then started to drop back. The winner, Dirty Blonde, sat a beautiful trip stalking the leader, drew past leader Sandbag in the stretch, and had to withstand a re-rally from Idontknowgoaskanni. Had Anni not been so wide throughout, one wonders if she would have won. Watch her next time if she draws further inside.
Race 5 (Heaven Help Me, Jane Cibelli-Florent Geroux, 1:42.1)
It was tough luck for anyone who bet Ginny G in this race, as she refused to leave the starting gate. Because there was no outside interference from anyone in the field, it was just a case of "too bad" for anyone who bet her.
It was also "too bad" if you bet Love That Kelly, who was an irrationally low 4/5, set a clear, no-excuse pace, only to get beat by Heaven Help Me, who had a beautiful rail run and shot through the first opening she saw late for the win. Slander was behind horses on the turn, rallied wide, and got up for second.
Race 6 (North Ocean, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:39.3)
People are starting to catch on to the fact that the David Jacobson-Andre Worrie combo means a winner at Monmouth. Unfortunately, they have become so attuned to this that any horse with these two is bound to be unbettable, such as North Ocean, who won this one at 1/2 odds. Keep that in mind on any future horses from this camp.
Race 7 (Cut to Order, Jamie Ness-Nik Juarez, 1:41.0)
I really don't know if the bettors are just really in-tune here at Monmouth, or what, but Cut to Order was bet down to a ridiculously low 4/5, and pulled off the score, getting a clear lead early on and holding off all rivals. That was my fourth winner of the day, plus three seconds so far. When you're hot, you're hot.
Race 8 (Pinkout, Kevin Skeeter-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.4)
There was about a 100% chance that either Love Came to Town or Pinkout would win this race, and it was Pinkout to score, with a hot Jose Ferrer getting the winning ride here. She stalked a speed duel between Cynthia's Fury and Have a Taste, made her move three-wide, and drew off to an easy score. It was a textbook perfect trip.
Race 9 (Thepartyneverends, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:10.4)
A bit of a strangely run race, with Bustin Out being allowed a clear lead and favored Thepartyneverends appearing to drop back. However, Thepartyneverends soon re-rerallied and drew off to an easy score.
Race 10 (Winning Cause, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:32.3)
Pletcher and Castellano do it once again in the Red Bank. Before that, though, Mellow Fellow set a clear early pace, only to get run down late by Heart to Heart. The latter horse looked like a clear winner late, but Winning Cause came flying down the center of the track to get up for the victory. Tough beat for Heart to Heart, who was sitting a great trip stalking the speedster up front.
Race 11 (Legal Laura, Kathleen O'Connell-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.2)
Once Legal Laura was able to grab the lead on the rail, this one was all over, as she drew off to a convincing five length win. Favored Pennymine was extremely disappointing, stalking the pace two-wide, only to completely fold late and wind up last, beaten by 22 lengths.
Race 12 (Total Accounting, Bernardo Sobrazo-Jose Ferrer, 1:12.2)
Jose Ferrer makes it a hat-trick on the day, as he continues to have a tremendous season. I mean, I know it's only three days old, but if he can keep it up, watch out.
As to the race itself, No More Strippers ran way better than I expected, as he dueled with two others early on, and dusted them off. He was caught late by Total Accounting, who rallied three wide and picked up his pieces late.
That wraps up Saturday. Sunday's analysis is coming soon!
Race 1 (Pelekas Beach, Cathal Lynch-Victor Carrero, 1:12.2)
Rocket Man Richie looked as if he would be much the best, as he dueled in the three-path the whole way and started to draw off in the stretch. However, Pelekas Beach--who was in the two-path on the pace--re-rallied on the inside and got up for an improbable score. I can't tell if this was because Pelekas Beach had a ton of heart, or if Rocket Man Richie just stopped abruptly. Probably a combination of both.
Race 2 (Our Hazel, Douglas Nunn-Navin Mangalee, 1:06.3)
It was one of the more painfully sluggish loads we've seen so far this season, as both Roman Sister and Our Hazel displayed a complete and utter disdain for wanting to load into the gate. Roman Sister did not display any interest in racing today, but Our Hazel did, sitting well off the pace, rallying up the rail, and getting up to score. Lots of credit must be given to Twist and Turn, who held on well in her first career start. At this level next out, she'll be one to consider.
Race 3 (Boss's Rules, Pat Marrotta-Nik Juarez, 1:11.4)
Boss's Rules was a standout on paper, and ran like it, stalking the pace, drawing alongside leader Flashy Brass, and drawing off to a ridiculously easy six-length score to give Nik Juarez his first win of the meet. There was a brief objection, as Flashy Brass had to take up coming around the turn, but the stewards correctly ruled that it didn't matter, as Boss's Rules could've won if she was running through a swamp.
Race 4 (Dirty Blonde, Dimitrios Synnefias-Edwin Gonzalez, 1:46.2)
Idontknowgoaskanni was a bettable price for most of the wagering, before going down to a soberingly realistic even money. She was wide almost the entire way around, was asked to go at the 3/8 pole, and then started to drop back. The winner, Dirty Blonde, sat a beautiful trip stalking the leader, drew past leader Sandbag in the stretch, and had to withstand a re-rally from Idontknowgoaskanni. Had Anni not been so wide throughout, one wonders if she would have won. Watch her next time if she draws further inside.
Race 5 (Heaven Help Me, Jane Cibelli-Florent Geroux, 1:42.1)
It was tough luck for anyone who bet Ginny G in this race, as she refused to leave the starting gate. Because there was no outside interference from anyone in the field, it was just a case of "too bad" for anyone who bet her.
It was also "too bad" if you bet Love That Kelly, who was an irrationally low 4/5, set a clear, no-excuse pace, only to get beat by Heaven Help Me, who had a beautiful rail run and shot through the first opening she saw late for the win. Slander was behind horses on the turn, rallied wide, and got up for second.
Race 6 (North Ocean, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:39.3)
People are starting to catch on to the fact that the David Jacobson-Andre Worrie combo means a winner at Monmouth. Unfortunately, they have become so attuned to this that any horse with these two is bound to be unbettable, such as North Ocean, who won this one at 1/2 odds. Keep that in mind on any future horses from this camp.
Race 7 (Cut to Order, Jamie Ness-Nik Juarez, 1:41.0)
I really don't know if the bettors are just really in-tune here at Monmouth, or what, but Cut to Order was bet down to a ridiculously low 4/5, and pulled off the score, getting a clear lead early on and holding off all rivals. That was my fourth winner of the day, plus three seconds so far. When you're hot, you're hot.
Race 8 (Pinkout, Kevin Skeeter-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.4)
There was about a 100% chance that either Love Came to Town or Pinkout would win this race, and it was Pinkout to score, with a hot Jose Ferrer getting the winning ride here. She stalked a speed duel between Cynthia's Fury and Have a Taste, made her move three-wide, and drew off to an easy score. It was a textbook perfect trip.
Race 9 (Thepartyneverends, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:10.4)
A bit of a strangely run race, with Bustin Out being allowed a clear lead and favored Thepartyneverends appearing to drop back. However, Thepartyneverends soon re-rerallied and drew off to an easy score.
Race 10 (Winning Cause, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:32.3)
Pletcher and Castellano do it once again in the Red Bank. Before that, though, Mellow Fellow set a clear early pace, only to get run down late by Heart to Heart. The latter horse looked like a clear winner late, but Winning Cause came flying down the center of the track to get up for the victory. Tough beat for Heart to Heart, who was sitting a great trip stalking the speedster up front.
Race 11 (Legal Laura, Kathleen O'Connell-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.2)
Once Legal Laura was able to grab the lead on the rail, this one was all over, as she drew off to a convincing five length win. Favored Pennymine was extremely disappointing, stalking the pace two-wide, only to completely fold late and wind up last, beaten by 22 lengths.
Race 12 (Total Accounting, Bernardo Sobrazo-Jose Ferrer, 1:12.2)
Jose Ferrer makes it a hat-trick on the day, as he continues to have a tremendous season. I mean, I know it's only three days old, but if he can keep it up, watch out.
As to the race itself, No More Strippers ran way better than I expected, as he dueled with two others early on, and dusted them off. He was caught late by Total Accounting, who rallied three wide and picked up his pieces late.
That wraps up Saturday. Sunday's analysis is coming soon!
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