Eight hard-knocking Jersey-breds will line up to compete in the John Reilly Handicap, which goes as the eleventh of twelve on the Saturday program. Here's how I think things will shake out.
By the way, note that there are no morning lines, because I wrote this post before they came out. If I have time, I will add them in later.
Weather Forecast: 80*F, Partly Cloudy
Another ideal day for racing at the Jersey Shore.
Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The 5, Musket Mary, was very visually impressive in her last start at this level on May 17. She came from way off a fast pace, and drew off to win by nine lengths as no one was closing ground on her. She earned a brisnet figure of 83 for that effort, which is the best last-out number in this field by a longshot. Both the 3, Royal Six Shooter, and the 6, True to the Game, have shown early speed in the past, so there's a chance that a similar set-up as last out will occur, and Musket Mary will blow by her competition. However, if someone gets a clear lead and slow fractions, there may be too much for her to do. Not to mention, Musket Mary may go off at a low price here, making her an underlay at best. I'll pick her to win, but I'm guardedly optimistic about her.
5- Musket Mary
3- Royal Six Shooter
6- True to the Game
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
This race is so bad, that anyone on-track Saturday will have to wear nose plugs while the horses are on the track. The best handicapping advice I can give to anyone about this race is toss any horse in the post parade who has less than four legs.
This is because all eight horses in the field have shown terrible form, and I really cannot say anything good about anyone. However, in a selection you can file under "only because I HAVE to", I pick the 7, Velenosa, only because she ran some (relatively) decent numbers last year. Even in her case, she hasn't run since September, and her trainer is not good with horses off a layoff.
Like I said, I may pick her, but I wouldn't bet her--or anyone in the field--with your money.
7- Velenosa
4- Roman Sister
2- Harumi
Race 3: Claiming $30,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
My selection lies toward the outside, in the 7, Pinch of Salt. He's shipping in from Pimlico, where he was struggling in n/w1x allowance races. He may have been a bit outclassed in those spots, but he nonetheless sported good figures, with numbers of 88, 82, and 83 in his last three. Nobody else in the field has shown the ability to consistently run figures like that, giving Pinch of Salt a big edge.
His jockey, Gabriel Saez, may have bad stats on paper, but he won his first race of the year on longshot Stiffed on Sunday, and took two races on Monday. This--to me, anyway--indicates that he's started to turn a corner, and he should start picking it up as the year goes on. He's certainly got a good chance to boot home winner #4 here, and that's why Pinch of Salt is my pick.
Others to consider are the 3, Forest Boy, who has early speed on the inside, but will be overbet, thanks to the Jacobson/Paco combination, and the 5, El Guero Guantero, who ran solid races at Parx over the winter at this level.
7- Pinch of Salt
3- Forest Boy
5- El Guero Guantero
Race 4: Claiming $35,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
Another day, another rail setting that's really far out, permitting only eight horses to run. By Belmont weekend, we'll have three horses in the body of grass races, and nine also eligibles.
Anyway, I'll take the 8, Anna May Our Queen. In her last start, on the grass at Gulfstream, she showed dramatic improvement, going from a 74 two back to an 86. In that last race, she dueled on the outside through a :21.2 opening quarter, brushed off her rival, and drew off to an impressive four-length victory. My only concern with her is that she has not had a workout since that race, sparking curiosity as to how much that race took out of her. However, no one else in the field has really shown much grass form (even that 74 race would likely win it), and she's got early speed, so she's worth a shot.
Three horses in the race have never run on grass. Among those, the most promising is the 2, Offlee Sheikh, who ran well first off the layoff on dirt last out. Her trainer, Eddie Plesa (who also trains Anna May Our Queen), sports a 15% win rate with dirt-to-grass horses. Plesa hasn't won a race all season, but I wouldn't be surprised if he combined for the exacta here.
8- Anna May Our Queen
3- Touch of Snow
2- Offlee Sheikh
Race 5: Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Even with the bias, it was hard to be gutsier last out than the 4, Freestyler, was. He rated off a speed horse (Bama Bound) who faded on the turn, then held off the challenge of the good Marriage Fever. The two of them finished five lengths clear of the rest of the field, and Freestyler earned a field-best figure of 95. He's got three ascending figures going into this race, speed with three relatively slow horses to his inside, and he should be a decent price.
Interestingly, he worked last out at Saratoga--which is about four hours north of Monmouth--then shipped back down for this race. Weird.
Another to consider is the 2, Jonesy Boy, who would be my pick if this race was run last year, as he ran great figures in the first half of 2014, but was dull in his lone 2015 effort. We'll see if he can bounce back to his old ways. The 6, Mr. Masterpiece, has the Jacobson/Paco combination, which almost guarantees favortism, but he did run good races at Aqueduct over the winter.
4- Freestyler
2- Jonesy Boy
6- Mr. Masterpiece
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
It's not often that I'll pick a horse in a grass race based off of his last start on dirt, but that is kind of what I'm doing with the 4, Oak Bluffs. His grass figures are superb, running an 89, 82, and 86 in his most recent three races on the lawn, but I was impressed with his last effort, on the dirt on May 9. He was the only horse who was not directly on the lead all day who still won, which shows me that he is still in good form, and a return to his grass efforts would "shore"ly win this one.
The 8, Dedicated to Bob, has run figures in grass sprints up to a 102 in the past, but has declined in his last three races. He still has a good shot here, though.
4- Oak Bluffs
8- Dedicated to Bob
7- Benny is a Jet
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
She may not have a lot of experience, but she has a lot of potential, and that's why I'll take the 2, Hip Hop N Jazz, in this race. In her debut at Pimlico, she rallied from eight lengths out of it to get up and score by two widening lengths. She earned a figure of 86 in that race, which marks the second-best last out race in the field. There's plenty of early speed in this race, so she'll have a good pace to make her closing run at. As long as she's able to improve off her last race, she looks to be the best in here.
The 4, Fiesta Rose, had a last race that looked impressive, but she coasted to a clear lead over a pro-speed track. In this race, as previously noted, she will have to contend with much more speed, which means either she'll have to exert herself a lot more to clear to the lead, or she'll get involved in a duel, and may fade. Of course, she didn't tire at this level at Tampa in March, holding on to finish a game second, but her figure in that race was only an 84, which is probably not good enough to win this race. She may improve, and hold on even with a tougher pace, but I wouldn't bet on it.
2- Hip Hop N Jazz
4- Fiesta Rose
1- Concealedwithakiss
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This race marks the return of Good Catholic Girl, who was much the best in her last race on May 10, but was completely bottled up down the stretch to lose any chance of winning. Her mediocre figure of 68 can be discounted here, for if she had smooth sailing, she would've likely earned a 75, which would put her right in the mix here. She has the 8 post in this spot, and while she may not be the most likely winner--as we'll see in a moment--she will be the best value for "shore".
The best figures in the field belong to the 2, Make Your Point, and the 3, Wonforthemoneyhon. The former ran well over the winter in Florida--well enough to win here, as a matter of fact--but was dull in her first start off the layoff at Aqueduct. Assuming that that race was only maintenance, and she'll be ready to fire here, she is definitely one to think about.
Wonforthemoneyhon, meanwhile, ran a much-improved 77 figure in her last race, at this level at Gulfstream. She's trained by the ever-dangerous Jorge Navarro, and had a sharp workout at Monmouth on May 24 in preparation for this race.
All three horses have a chance in here, but I lean toward Good Catholic Girl, assuming she'll have a clean path to run this time.
8- Good Catholic Girl
2- Make Your Point
3- Wonforthemoneyhon
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I think that, on paper, the 3, Village Warrior, is a stand-out. My concern is that I said the exact same thing about him before his last race, on May 9, and it didn't not turn out well. He was 3rd at 3/5 odds. He didn't have any visible excuses, either, as he sat just off the pace, but had no rally when asked. Now, it's possible that he wasn't 100% that day for some reason, and he'll be firing on all cylinders Saturday, but it's not a prospect that I would take low odds on. We'll see, I suppose.
Should Village Warrior not fire, I'll take the 4, Mack Miller, who narrowly missed in that same race, has similar recent figures (Miller earned a 91 in that last race, and has run races in the 90s before), and will be a way better price.
3- Village Warrior
4- Mack Miller
8- Cee No More
Race 10: Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
This race re-defines what "wide-open" means: you could make a case for just about everybody in the race. I lean toward the 9, Love That Kelly, even though I know she stopped on the lead last out. There's no speed in here to pressure her, and her previous two figures, of 79 and 78, would probably be good enough to win it. If she's allowed to coast on the lead, she may forget to stop.
Another one to consider is the 2, Bluegrass Genius, who rated off the pace last out at Gulfstream to get up and win, earning a solid figure in the process. The 3, Red Letter, ran back-to-back 80s at Tampa, for the two strongest numbers in the field going in.
9- Love That Kelly
3- Red Letter
2- Bluegrass Genius
Race 11: John J. Reilly Handicap, 3yo and up, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
It's a hard-knocking field of Jersey-breds sprinting here in the John Reilly, and the field of eight includes graded stakes winner Rainbow Heir. He was last seen costing himself a trip to the Breeders' Cup with a fruitless fifth in the Phoenix at Keeneland. He's been off since then, and has been working well in preparation for this race. His figures in the past are certainly good enough to win it, and on class alone, he towers over his rivals.
With that being said, I'm not totally sold on him off the long layoff. While it certainly would be nice if he won, I'll look elsewhere and select the 6, Saucy Don. He's had good form on the year, most recently running a solid third in the Decathlon Stakes versus open company. Now, he steps back down into Jersey-bred company, with three ascending figures, a good workout pattern, and a top jockey. He'll be my selection.
By the way, I tried to find out who the John J. Reilly in question is, but an internet search came up empty. If anybody out there knows who he was, let me know--I'd love to find out.
6- Saucy Don
2- Rainbow Heir
4- Loverbil
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
A full field of maiden claimers serves as the getaway race on the last Saturday of May, and I'll take a bit of a crazy horse here, in the 7, Solo Number. In her first race, she lost all chance when she was off very slowly, losing by 21 lengths. The way the track was playing that day, she was hopeless. She turned in a great three furlong work on May 27, showing that she may be improving form. It's not great evidence that she'll win, to be "shore", but it's a wide-open race of inconsistent horses, so crazier things have happened.
The 1, Khloe's Quest, has early speed to the inside and relatively decent figures, so she may be a threat to wire the field. Watch for her, although she may be favored.
7- Solo Number
1- Khloe's Quest
6- Charlie's Rainbow
That wraps up Saturday's card. Note, once again, that I will not be providing picks for Sunday's card, as I'll be away this weekend. I will be back Sunday night with a recap of Saturday's program. Good luck to everybody playing!
No comments:
Post a Comment