My selections for Sunday's card.
Weather Forecast: 77*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This is a perfect storm of a bad betting race--bad horses in a small field. When the 7/5 morning line favorite, and likely odds-on favorite in real life, is 0-14, there's some issues. Of course, the filly in question, the 2, Gallant Lady, appears to be such a standout on figures, that there's really no way to pick against her. My suggestion is just to watch this one--maybe.
2- Gallant Lady (7/5)
6- Rockin Alli (9/5)
5- La Guitara (4/1)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It appears to be another solid choice in this one, as the 4, Hold Everything, has the dangerous combination of Paco Lopez riding and David Jacobson training. He also holds the co-highest last-out figure in the race, with a 79, and has run numbers of 81 and 82 in the past. Of course, he isn't a total standout--after all, both the 1, Roman Officer, and the 6, Bea Wildcat, have run comparable numbers in the past. Hold Everything is on the morning line at 2/1, but the aforementioned trainer-jockey combination may skyrocket him into unbettable-odds territory. In that case, I'd suggest using him in some multi-race bets, and perhaps playing some exactas involving him with some of the other major contenders. Don't bet him to win, however, unless the price is right--there's no guarantee that he'll be worth it.
4- Hold Everything (2/1)
6- Bea Wildcat (5/1)
1- Roman Officer/1A- Gerry With a G (4/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
It's another relatively tricky field of maiden claiming fillies and mares, which is saved by a horse with good figures and some early speed--in this case, the 7, Twisted Kick. In her last two starts at Laurel, she showed early speed both times, only to falter late. Nonetheless, with the way that the track was playing on Saturday, there's a good chance that, if she manages to take to the lead, she'll jump out early on and just not look back. With a 5/1 morning line price, there's a chance that her odds will be very appealing.
If not her, I would look towards Charlie's Rainbow, who ran two decent races at Tampa over the winter, and the 6 Confrontational, who totally stopped in her last effort at Gulfstream, but has workouts that indicate that she may rebound here.
7- Twisted Kick (5/1)
8- Charlie's Rainbow (6/1)
6- Confrontational (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
There's only one horse in the race that has shown both recent good form and consistency, and that's the 5, One for Don. In his last three efforts at Parx, he has earned brisnet figures of 87, 77, and 82. No one else in the field has been able to pull off a 77 on a regular basis, which would give him the victory.
Others to watch in the field are the 1, Indy Sea, and the 8, Imtrulyinthemood, who have run similar numbers in the past. One to avoid is the 4, Steve's Adventures, who once showed great ability, but hasn't raced in more than two years, and was vanned off in his last start. I can't trust a horse like that, especially at possible low odds.
5- One For Don (2/1)
8- I'mtrulyinthemood (6/1)
1- Indy Sea (5/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Yet another difficult race concludes this early pick 5, and it's not one where a winner is readily apparent. In this case, I went with a filly who has not been super-impressive in her three career starts, but nonetheless has been slowly getting faster in each of her last few. That would be the 8, Discreet Concorde, who ran a last-out best of a 73 at Gulfstream Park on April 23. She had a terrific work at Monmouth on May 4, and today looks to be as good of a day as any for her to break her maiden.
If not her, I'll take the 2, Luckystrikedelcoco, who narrowly missed two starts back at Tampa at this level, with an impressive figure of a 75. If she can run back to that number, and is able to close like she did in that race, she'll be tough to beat.
8- Discreet Concorde (7/2)
2- Luckystrikedelcoco (7/2)
6- Key d'Oro (4/1)
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
This is a very wide-open race, one that any of the six that are entered can win. I wound up going with the 4, Vinceremos, who's making his third start off the layoff for the formidable Todd Pletcher stable. He ran brisnet figures in those races of 88 and 89, and even a mild step up would likely give him the win. The only issue is that he's the 8/5 morning line favorite; I don't think he's worth a bet at lower than 2/1 odds.
While, as I noted, pretty much any one of the other five can win this one, my chief alternates to the favorite are the 6, Harbor Kid, who ran a terrific 93 figure last out at Parx, and the 2, Bama Bound, who has run some great races sprinting, but will have to stretch out to a route to win this one.
4- Vinceremos (8/5)
6- Harbor Kid (9/2)
2- Bama Bound (4/1)
Race 7: Claiming $20,000 (n/w3L) 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
On paper, the 10, The Real McCoy is tepidly the best. She's the only one of the bunch to consistently run great brisnet figures, turning in a 79, a 74, and a 76, respectively, in her last three races. In her last start on March 13 at Tampa Bay Downs, she was rallying late, when she was forced to steady and miss the victory by 1 1/4 lengths. Had she not encountered that trouble late, she may very well have won that one. I'll be hoping that she can avoid trouble--and overcome trainer Tim Richardson's 4% winning percentage with horses off a layoff--and get the job done here.
Others to consider include the 9, Indian Chaser, who figures to show the most early speed, the 4 Echale Salsita, who won in gate-to-wire fashion last out at Gulfstream, and the 6, Shesfromboston, who ran well over this Monmouth grass course last year.
10- The Real McCoy (7/2)
9- Indian Chaser (5/1)
6- Shesfromboston (10/1)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x) 3yo, 6 Furlongs
I can only see one serious contender in here: the 4, Easy to Say. Two starts back, he broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park, fending off two other duelers while racing in the three-path. In the Bay Shore Stakes, where he may have been in over his head, he broke through the gate before the start and wilted amidst the pace duel, yet still ran an 84 brisnet figure, which is one of the best earned by anyone in the field ever. If one figures that he'll equal or improve his 91 number two back with an easier field and trip, then he should get the job done.
Also watch for the 10, Nolan's Dream, who ran well first off the layoff at Pimlico and has the dangerous Jamie Ness training, and the 3, Mach My Day, who ran two good races at Gulfstream this winter.
4- Easy to Say (3/1)
10- Nolan's Dream (5/1)
3- Mach My Day (6/1)
Race 9: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
While I doubt that both halves will run, the entry of the 1, Stolen Victory, and the 1A, More Than Rainbows, Stolen Victory ran a 72 brisnet figure last time out at Aqueduct, which is near the top of the last out numbers in this bunch, and is making her third start off the layoff, which should give her a shot to improve even more. The 1A, More Than Rainbows, was dull first off the layoff last time out, but has shown ability on grass in the past, and has the right to wake up here.
The 4, Good Catholic Girl, is the most consistently fast in the field, and has a lot of early speed, but trainer Charles Harvatt is hitting at only 1-49 with horses off the layoff this year. Who knows, with a field like this, maybe Good Catholic Girl will make it 2-50. Regardless, I can't make a super-strong case for anyone in here, so I'd advise treading lightly.
1- Stolen Victory/1A- More Than Rainbows (2/1)
4- Good Catholic Girl (3/1)
5- Glory Style (7/2)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race gives us the oddity of a non-winners of one other than allowance race at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and up, scheduled just two races after one restricted to the same level for just 3 year olds. Unsurprisingly, no 3 year olds are in this race.
Anyway, I decided to take the 9, Blings Express, in this one. He ran the best last out number of anyone in the field, at a 96, and run up to a 100 earlier in the year at Gulfstream. He's definitely got some top-class ability, and at 9/2 odds, he's worth a shot for "shore".
9- Blings Express (9/2)
2- Alfredo Romana (12/1)
10- Acini de Pepe (8/1)
Race 11: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This one runs through three horses in here--the 2, Songa, the 3, Cho Time, and the 4, Scatter Joy. While I couldn't blame you for taking any one of those three, I settled on Scatter Joy in here, as she has consistently run figures in the mid-to-upper 90s, including the best last-out figure of a 93. She also possesses dangerous early speed, plus the riding services of Paco Lopez. She will probably be the deserving favorite, and a must-use on any pick 4 or pick 5 tickets.
4- Scatter Joy (2/1)
2- Songa (3/1)
3- Cho Time (3/1)
Race 12: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
All you need to do here is look to the inside three in the finale, because they're the only three who have a chance, in my opinion. My top selection is the 1, Major in Time, who has the best last-out figure of 69, plus consistent figures in that key high-60s range.
1- Major in Time (7/2)
2- Trouble With Girls (8/5)
3- Goose Bay (12/1)
The first race tomorrow is 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck, everybody!
No comments:
Post a Comment