It's already the last Sunday of June, which means that we are only one week away from the United Nations Stakes here at Monmouth. It's part of the big Independence Day weekend here, with plenty of festivities to en"shore" a great weekend.
Right now, though, 12 races are scheduled for this Sunday. Heavy rain is expected overnight, so I will handicap these assuming the races will be off the grass. That would be a first all season.
Weather Forecast: 83*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll try to beat likely favorite Havana Julie with the 1, I Just Wanna Win. The latter has already won three times, qualifying for this race under the open three-year-old condition. She ships in from Parx, where she recently won an open claiming race in gate-to-wire fashion, earning a brisnet figure of 76. She's got post 1, enabling her to take control of the pace and (hopefully), draw off to victory.
On paper, the 2, Havana Julie, looks the best, earning back-to-back figures of 86 and 81. However, those two races were run while in the barn of Jamie Ness. Now, she makes her first start for Patricia Farro, and I don't know if she'll be able to duplicate those figures. She may very well, but I wouldn't bet on it. The 3, Ryabinka, has burned me enough times this year, but her figures remain strong.
1- I Just Wanna Win (4/1)
2- Havana Julie (3/2)
3- Ryabinka (4/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
In a race like this, any horse with anything even resembling form merits consideration. Here, the 5, Cayden Cam, earned a 68 in his first race, on June 12 here at Monmouth. Only two other horses in the field have done that well, ever, and they are 0-31 and 0-13, respectively. Furthermore, those figures weren't earned in recent memory, nor on their first start. Cayden Cam can improve off that race, and finished the best out of everyone exiting that race. He's my pick.
The 8, Paper Street, ran a 67 in his last outing, but hasn't been a serious contender in any of his recent races. Has he found a race weak enough that he can excel? We'll see. The 2, Irace, broke slowly in his debut, and may improve if he gets away cleanly.
5- Cayden Cam (2/1)
8- Paper Street (5/1)
2- Irace (4/1)
Race 3: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Eleven horses will contest this one. The most interesting of these is the 3, Alpha Dude, shipping in from Delaware Park. He's trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Trevor McCarthy, which would make him an attractive prospect on his own. He possesses another important quality: early speed. In his last start, he was on the pace through a :23 and :47.2 pace, only to fade and hold on for second. Here, nobody else really runs early on, and with his inside post, he should have a cakewalk to the lead. It's unlikely he'll have as fast of a pace as he did in his last race, and he'll use that to draw off to victory.
The 5, Colonel Jordan, was wide the entire way last out, yet demolished a field of maiden claimers at this distance. The 6, Philip, was vanned off in his last start at Belmont. However, he's been working well there, meaning that whatever was bothering him has persumably been worked out, and he'll be back to his form, which included a 72 figure in the last race he completed. That's the second-best last-out figure in the race.
3- Alpha Dude (7/2)
6- Philip (10/1)
5- Colonel Jordan (7/2)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll go with the 9, Bull Ensign. He made his dirt debut last out, where he broke slowly and was wide throughout. Even so, he earned a 77 in that race, best among anybody in the field. He looks to be the best.
The 1, Brad and the Gang, has run strong races on the dirt, but those have been in sprints. Who knows how he'll run stretching out? The 3, Quiet Ray, earned a decent 67 in the lone dirt race that he finished, and has shown strong grass form. He hopes to translate to dirt, if the weather forecast holds up.
9- Bull Ensign
1- Brad and the Gang
3- Quiet Ray
Race 5: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
A tough field to handicap greets us here, as nobody has really shown much form. As such, I lean toward the strong connections, and pick the 7, Crafty Chick. She was dull in her last race at Tampa Bay Downs, being annihilated by 18 lengths. However, she's been working well in her preparation for her return, and trainer Jorge Navarro hits at an impressive 36% first off the layoff. Both of her career wins have also come at a route distance, including a win at Tampa in early January. She may be overbet here, but she's the most likely winner.
The 5, Sandbag, has the best last-out figure and early speed. The 6, Weather Permitting, has been disappointing at this level earlier in the year, but has been second and third in her last two. Is this race her breakthrough? We'll see.
7- Crafty Chick (5/2)
5- Sandbag (3/1)
6- Weather Permitting (7/2)
Race 6: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles
My pick is the 5, Lure of the South. In his last dirt outing, on May 25, he made a sweeping four-wide move around the turn, just missing by a head. On grass last out, he made a similar move, missing by a half-length. Against a field of dubious quality, that big move should be the key to a win.
The 6, Arc Above, showed good form in off-the-grass races last year. However, he was terrible in his last dirt race, losing by 33 lengths at Aqueduct in December. He has the right to bounce back here, but I'd prefer a horse with better recent form.
5- Lure of the South
6- Arc Above
7- Fort Boonesborough
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Any horse who looked impressive at Belmont, and is now shipping into Monmouth, is dangerous. The 5, Tiger Moth, fits that profile. She won her first race last out, rallying after a slow start to win by 3/4 of a length. She earned a figure of 86 in that race, the best last-out number in the field. She's got the riding services of Joe Bravo, and the training of Todd Pletcher. I think she'll make it two in a row here.
The 7, Dragonberry, also looks competitive on paper, but she's only 1-9 lifetime, with four seconds. That shows me that she seems rather averse to winning, and I don't want to bet a horse like that. She's worth consideration for the exotic spots, however. The 4, Wraith, was shuffled back behind a fading rival in her last race. That compromised her race, and she should improve with a cleaner trip.
5- Tiger Moth (5/2)
7- Dragonberry (3/1)
4- Wraith (6/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I know that he hasn't raced on dirt in almost fifteen months, but when a horse has an edge like the 9, Secret Bid, does, it's hard to ignore it. He last ran on dirt at Keeneland in April 2014, and even though he was defeated by sixteen lengths, he earned a figure of 84 there. In the start before that, he had an 86. That's the best going a route in this field by a long, long way. He recently completed an ill-advised steeplechase experiment, and I foresee improvement when switching back to dirt.
9- Secret Bid
2- Monkey Chunky
1- Face the Race
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
An interesting bunch of eight lines up here, including last year's Long Branch Stakes winner, Irish You Well, and No Surrender, who is named after a Bruce Springsteen song. That automatically makes him great.
However, I will not go with either of them (although Irish You Well is dangerous, as his only two wins have come at Monmouth). Rather, I'll take the 4, He's So Fine. In his last race, he earned a best-in-the-field best of 96, while losing to the endlessly tough and lovable Freestyler. He's been working very well since then, suggesting that at least a repeat of that 96 figure is in order. That would make him a very likely winner.
Also one to consider is the 3, Dudeman, who ran decently at this level at Parx in his first start off the layoff. He earned a 93 there, and has run up to a 96 in the past. By the way, that 96 was earned over a sealed track. It's a distinct possibility that the track will be sealed again Sunday.
4- He's So Fine (5/2)
3- Dudeman (7/2)
5- Irish You Well (3/1)
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Should this race be on the dirt, the 12, Misszippityslewda, would have a hard time losing. Her last dirt race was absolutely smashing, as she destroyed an allowance field by 12 easy lengths. She earned a 90 in that race, and has earned up to a 92 in the past. Nobody else in this bunch has been able to sniff that figure. She's a cinch.
12- Misszippityslewda
2- Have a Taste
6- Offlee Sheikh
Race 11: Mr. Prospector Stakes, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If anything in this world makes sense, then the 5, Salutos Amigos, will win going away, laughing. Forget about the Dubai bounce, and forget about this race being a prep for Saratoga. He's so much better than anyone else in the field, it really isn't even funny. He's won four straight races in the United States, earning figures up to 114. Nobody here even comes close to that figure. He's going to win, barring some kind of tragic mishap/alien abduction.
5- Salutos Amigos (1/1)
6- Happy My Way (5/2)
2- Rainbow Heir (7/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
My pick to close the Sunday show is the 9, Diacetto. He improved greatly off that first start of the year, going from earning a 63 figure two back, to a 72. That's the best last-out figure in the race, and, even better, it was earned in a route race, as opposed to in a sprint. That shows he's ready to tackle the route distance presented here.
The 4, No Brody No, has also run great figures, but those were in sprint races, and now he's stretching out to a route. The 5, Star Academy was a distant third behind Diacetto in his last race, but his figures are still better than anyone else's in the field.
9- Diacetto (3/1)
4- No Brody No (6/1)
5- Star Academy (6/1)
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