It's already the last weekend of June, meaning that we are rapidly approaching one of the biggest races of the season: the grade 1, $750,000 United Nations Stakes. It'll be July 5, at 1 3/8 miles on the grass, and will feature the return of last year's Breeders' Cup Turf winner, Main Sequence. There'll also be the Salvator Mile that day, plus a bunch of other good racing and fun activities that weekend.
Back to the present, however, there's ten races on this Friday card. Here's what I think of them:
Weather Forecast: 73*F, Cloudy
There's a chance of rain in the morning, but it should clear out before the races.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, 5 Furlongs
Betting against Todd Pletcher in a two-year-old maiden race is an exercise akin to playing with fire. Here, he sends out the 3, Privy Control. She's been working very well at Saratoga, turning in a four-furlong bullet in :48.3 two workouts ago.
Now, it's entirely possible that he doesn't have her at 100% going into this race, and he's using this race as a prep for maiden races at Saratoga. However, nobody else in the field is all that great, either. The lone horse in the field with experience, the 4, Runaway Train, worked dismally just a few days ago for this race. The 5, Liana Star, is working well, but trainer Joe Orseno is not good with first-time-starters. The only horse in here who has a good chance of beating Privy Control, in my opinion, is the 1, Un Po Di Vino. She's got the sharp Kelly Breen training her, plus has shown sharp form in the morning. Now, while I think Privy Control is the most likely winner, Un Po Di Vino cannot be disregarded. If you're playing the early pick 5, use both horses.
3- Privy Control (2/1)
1- Un Po Di Vino (9/5)
4- Runaway Train (4/1)
Race 2: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This is one of the best betting races of the season: just about everyone in the field has run a race that would win this one. Of course, three deserving horses are left out of the field because of rail settings, but that's another story.
Anyway, I spent a lot of time looking for a selection, but I eventually settled on the 7, Best Actor. In his last race, he earned a brisnet figure of 84, which is tied for second-best in the field among all last out numbers. In that last race, it was his first start off more than a three-month layoff. He didn't run badly, either, narrowly missing to a horse, Rico Suave, who had a long, easy lead. In the past, he's run figures up to a 97, which would easily win this race. However, even he improves a few points off an 84, he should win this race.
The 8, Short Shrift, owns the best last-out figure in the race, with an 88. He earned it the hard way, too, running on a fast pace in his first start off the layoff. There's not much pace in here, so may get a clear lead. He'll be dangerous if that happens.
The 6, Mythical Man, declined sharply in his last race, but was in tight and behind the horses the whole way around. With a clearer path, he should run better.
Grass:
7- Best Actor (3/1)
8- Short Shrift (5/1)
6- Mythical Man (8/1)
Dirt:
5- Treasury Devil
4- Seeya When I Seeya
10- Curve of Stones
Race 3: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The 7, Musket Mary, appears to be much the best here. She's won two straight races, earning figures of 83 in both of them. The only horse to come close to those figures are the 8, More Than Special, who was less-than-impressive in her last race, and the 5, Elmra, who is wildly inconsistent at best. It should be a cakewalk for Musket Mary. That would also mean her third straight win, an impressive accomplishment in of itself.
7- Musket Mary (7/5)
8- More Than Special (4/1)
2- Mononoke (8/1)
Race 4: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
A ton of early speed signed up for this race. In fact, pretty much everybody in the field is a one-dimensional front-runner. Because of this, I'll try a horse who hasn't shown speed: the 6, Skirt Stake. She was flat in her last start, but in a race like this, everyone else may just melt down, giving Skirt Stake the victory by default. Her figures are decent, having earned a peak of 66 in the past, and may improve in her second start off the layoff. At a price, she's worth a shot.
The 5, Ten Cent Hat, has a similar profile as Skirt Stake, but couldn't take advantage of a similar scenario in her last race. I'm not expecting much as such.
6- Skirt Skate (6/1)
5- Ten Cent Hat (5/1)
7- Feloya (10/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 3, Amizzen Grace. In her only grass start so far, she earned a figure of 86, the best number in the field. She closed well in that race, finishing only about 1/4 of a length behind the second-place finisher. Furthermore, that race was on a yielding grass surface. She may improve when moving to a firm course.
The 2, Ansible, is also interesting, cutting back in distance. Clement and Bravo on the grass is also a combination that must be respected. The 4, Biamonte, has run fast races in the past, but sports a less-than-attractive 0-8 lifetime mark.
Grass:
3- Amizzen Grace (7/2)
2- Ansible (5/1)
4- Biamonte (3/1)
Dirt:
12- Heart of Midway
3- Amizzen Grace
10- Curlish Figure
Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
A hard-knocking field of claimers begins the late pick 5 on this Friday. My top pick among these is the 3, Parody. While under the care of Jamie Ness, he was impressive on the claiming circuit at Laurel, earning figures in the high-80s to low-90s. When claimed away from Ness, he disappointed in two starts at Pimlico, with figures of 81 and 72. By themselves, those would merit a look in this field, but now Ness gets the horse back. With Ness once again training, Parody figures to return to that form he showed before. This would mean absolute domination of the field.
The 2, Bea Wildcat, took advantage of a very easy pace situation in his last start. With a lot of early speed and a rail post, he could do it again, but I wouldn't bet on it. The 5, Gintraker, was the recipient of a bad ride in his last race. Before that race, he earned competitive figures. The 4, Dubious Bachelor, has run well enough to finish in the money here, and is also taking a notable drop in class. That being said, if Parody runs back to his form over the winter, he'll be very tough to beat.
3- Parody (9/5)
5- Gintraker (8/1)
4- Dubious Bachelor (5/2)
Race 7: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
I lean toward the 1, Make Your Point. In her last race, she made a big four-wide rally to swoop by her rivals and win by three lengths, going away. Her figure in that race was a 77. Only one horse in the field has run better: her entrymate, the 1A, Northern Smile. However, Northern Smile is buried on the also-eligible list. Still, Make Your Point has form good enough to win this race on her own. Now, it's a wide-open race, and you'll have to use a lot of horses in the pick 4 and pick 5 to feel safe, but Make Your Point's the most likely winner.
The 4, Indian Chaser, has the most early speed, and has ridden that early speed to two gate-to-wire victories. It may happen again. The 7, Forest Funds, ran well in her first start off the layoff, and has the astute grass trainer Marcus Vitali.
Grass:
1- Make Your Point/1A- Northern Smile (3/1)
4- Indian Chaser (9/2)
7- Forest Funds (5/2)
Dirt:
4- Indian Chaser
5- Pleasure
2- Extreme Excess
Race 8: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This race looks like a good situation for an ice-cold exacta. The 3, Guchi Gold, has run an 86, 82, and 80 in her last three. The 1, Chatt Hills, has run an 83, 75, and 82 in her last three. In that last race, Chatt Hills ran big, dueling three-wide and holding off all her rivals. While I feel that Guchi Gold is the most likely winner in here, it's hard to see anyone except her and Chatt Hills winning this race.
3- Guchi Gold (3/1)
1- Chatt Hills (6/5)
5- Lady Liana (3/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
In his last race, the 6, Dedicated to Bob, ran way faster than he needed to. He sprinted out to an opening quarter of :20.3, the fastest opening quarter of the season. He still managed to finish second, only overtaken by the sharp grass sprinter Oak Bluffs. He earned a brisnet figure in that race of an 88, the best in the field. Assuming he manages to slow down the pace, he should win this one.
The 2, Drago's Best, has been running well at the n/w2x allowance level, and now takes a drop to the n/w1x level.
Grass:
6- Dedicated to Bob (3/1)
2- Drago's Best (3/1)
3- Golden Story (5/2)
Dirt:
14- Blings Express
12- City's Fast Lane
7- No Returns
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I will try to get out with the 10, Twist and Turn. Her two lifetime figures are 69 and 70, something that nobody else in the field has done without any consistency. She narrowly missed at this level last out, rallying wide, only to miss by just two lengths. Improvement off that effort would mean an easy victory.
The 8, Shore Points South, ran well in her debut, chasing a much-the-best winner while earning a figure of 62. She can definitely step up off that race. The 1, Laura Lucy, dueled for the lead last out and held on until the 1/8 pole; a clearer lead would be the path to a possible victory.
10- Twist and Turn (3/2)
8- Shore Points South (6/1)
1- Laura Lucy (5/1)
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