It's an unusual card to begin the racing week here at Monmouth, as we'll have not one, not two, but THREE steeplechase races. I've always enjoyed watching races like those, but as far as handicapping them, you might as well throw a dart and hope for the best. I'll try my best here, though, and try to pick the winners of the seven flat races we'll see on the Friday program.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
I'll go with the horse in the field with the best grass form: the 2, North Star Boy. He tried to run in a steeplechase at Fair Hill last out, but one of the stirrups broke, and he never had a chance. Cross that race out, and you're left with a horse who had good grass form, most recently running fourth in the Henry Clark Stakes at Pimlico. Now, he's going into a race with mostly bad flat horses and horses who haven't won over fences (obviously), and figures to win easily, as long as he handles the jumps. He was 3/1 in that first aborted effort, so expect a similar price on him here.
The 3, Aheadofthecurve, ran well in his steeplechase debut at Charlotte. He was in contention all the way, and missed by only half a length. Expect another good effort here.
The 5, Boom and Bust, has interesting form. In his lone career start, over fences at Malvern, he dwelt at the start and was left well behind. Nonetheless, he got back in the mix late, only to tire from his exertion and drop back again. If he breaks with the pack this time, expect better.
2- North Star Boy (3/1)
3- Aheadofthecurve (9/2)
5- Boom and Bust (12/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
As always, I'm wary of going with horses who are 0-12 lifetime, but I'll take that gamble with the 2, Momma's Favorite. Her two races on the dirt are the best in the field, with brisnet figures of 58 and 67, respectively. That 58 is the co-best in the field last out, and the 67 is better than anyone else in the field has run in their lives. She turned in a bullet work in preparation for this spot, and has the hot hands of Daniel Centeno riding. She's the most likely winner here.
The 12, Savanna Breeze, didn't run too badly at this level last time out, but may have some issues breaking from the far outside post. The 1, Sonyador, stepped up her form last out, and makes her third start off the layoff here.
2- Momma's Favorite (5/2)
12- Savanna Breeze (10/1)
1- Sonyador/1A- Rain on Fire (10/1)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
The 3, Curmudgeon, is my pick. Last year, he was a master of long-distance races, earning back-to-back wins at 2 1/8 miles and 2 1/4 miles at Presque Isle. His one steeplechase effort was a solid one, closing from the back of the pack mid-race only to flatten. I expect improvement in his second career jump effort, which should lead him to victory.
Also worthy of consideration are the 1, Ride Away, who has earned back-to-back seconds over the fences, and the 5, Hardrock Eleven, who moved prematurely in his steeplechase effort, and makes his third start off the layoff.
3- Curmudgeon (5/1)
1- Ride Away (5/2)
5- Hardrock Eleven (6/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race runs through two shippers: the 3, Pro Prospect, and the 8, Broad Rule. I lean toward Pro Prospect, however, considering he's trained by Jamie Ness, who is scoring at 42% on the meet, and is 28% with shippers. With those connections, you won't get a great price. However, he ran two great races at Delaware, and if he can duplicate those, he has a very good chance of winning.
Broad Rule also has a chance, coming off of some good races at Pimlico and Parx. He also gets the riding services of Paco Lopez, as Daniel Centeno hops off to ride Pro Prospect. Both horses should be used in multi-race wagers.
3- Pro Prospect (5/2)
8- Broad Rule (7/2)
4- What the Chub (4/1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
I like the 5, Street Fight in here, as he's taking a drop in class. He was competitive in stakes races at the steeplechase level, even placing second in the G3 Imperial Cup at Aiken. Nobody else here has had that kind of consistent form at the jump level, so he'll be my selection.
5- Street Fight (3/1)
2- So Outspoken (9/2)
9- Arrakis (5/1)
Race 6: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
A full field of twelve has been assembled for this claiming race. I'll go with the 8, Siena Indian. In his last race, at Tampa Bay Downs--which was his first in fifteen months--he had a bit of an awkward start, but nonetheless cleared to the lead and drew off to win easily. His brisnet figure of 77 is tied for the best last-out figure in the field. He's got a lot of speed--in that race he set fractions of :21.4 and :45.3, but never flinched--and good workouts coming into this race. I'm expecting a big effort out of him.
The 1, Hereosaurus Rex, broke his maiden last out here at Monmouth, and has been running increasingly improving figures. His entrymate, Keepin it Zeal, was involved in a tough speed duel last out, but it was his first start off a long layoff, and certainly has room to improve here.
8- Siena Indian (7/2)
1- Hereosaurus Rex/1A- Keepin it Zeal (4/1)
2- Little Tom (5/1)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, Fillies, 4 1/2 Furlongs
I know that the Breen-Hall combination is 0-1 in terms of 2-year-old maidens, but in a race like this, it's hard to go against a first-timer that they send out. In this case, they'll have the 8, Candystand. They'll use Paco Lopez as their rider, which never hurts, and has been working well going into this race. She's not going to be a good value, to be "shore", but she's the most likely winner.
Among horses who have run, the coupled entry of Scoff and Don's Girl have both shown good form--the former at Indiana Grand, the latter at Pimlico.
8- Candystand (3/1)
1- Scoff/1A- Don's Girl (5/2)
7- Wolfie (8/1)
Race 8: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 4, Arissa, is a standout. In her last race, she broke slowly, and was forced to run in the four-path the entire way around. That's usually a death sentence for a horse. And "shore" enough, it was, as she faded to finish fifth. However, she was near the lead entering the stretch, and only lost by three lengths. That kind of effort was practically heroic. Here, she's got the second-best last-out figure coming into this race (a 75), and gets an upgrade in jockey to Joe Bravo. Even better, it's her third race off the layoff, always an indicator of improvement. Hopefully, she'll be a great price. If she is, this will be a great betting opportunity.
The 11, Takeoff Your Hat, ran some terrific figures last year, many of which would win this race. However, she hasn't raced since September, so I won't exactly be betting her with both fists. She's worth a use as a back-up in the pick 4 or pick 5, though.
4- Arissa (3/1)
11- Takeoff Your Hat (7/2)
2- Village Princess (10/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
It's a wide open, difficult race, and I wouldn't advocate taking a low price on anybody. That being said, my pick will be the 1, First Spark. He won his debut at Aqueduct in dominating fashion, earning a 98 brisnet figure. He declined in his last race at Keeneland, earning only an 84, but he was extremely wide in that race. Breaking out of the inside post here, he shouldn't have that issue. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who is always dangerous every time he ships a horse in. Once again, I wouldn't bet him if he was a low price, but if he runs back to his debut, he'll be tough to beat.
There's plenty of of other horses worth considering, too: such as the 4, Box Office, who is proven over a route, and is being ridden by the hot Orlando Bocachica. The 8, Cee No More, was also very wide in his last race, but still earned a last-out best of 89.
1- First Spark (3/1)
8- Cee No More (6/1)
4- Box Office (4/1)
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
On paper, the 1, Kid Gavilan, has the best past form in the field. He's earned figures of 75 and 78 in the past on the grass, which would win this race easily. However, I can't find an excuse for his last race, where he was beaten by fifteen lengths. He's had slow workouts since then, suggesting that he is not likely to return to that good form. I'm leery of him.
I'll take a bit of a price in this one, in the 7, Shylock. Last time out, he earned a 69 figure, the best last-out number in the race. Among all the horses in the field, he's earned the best numbers routing on the grass. I know he hasn't hit the board in ten career starts, but in a field like this, he's worth a shot.
7- Shylock (6/1)
8- Feverish Loot (6/1)
1- Kid Gavilan (9/5)
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