In terms of events and racing, there's few better weekends here at Monmouth Park. Here's a recap of what's set to go down:
Friday: There's 11 races on tap, highlighted by the $150,000, grade 3, Molly Pitcher Stakes. There'll also be a voucher drawing. Six $100 betting vouchers will be given away, each good for one $100 bet on the horse of your choosing. It'll be a fun day.
Saturday: This is the July 4 program, headlined by the $75,000 Elkwood Stakes at one mile on the grass. The primary promotion is a grandstand pass giveaway, good for the rest of the season (except Haskell day). There'll also be beer specials, plus ten $100 voucher giveaways.
On an unrelated note, I wish that the Jersey Shore Stakes would be moved back to the Fourth of July. It served as a stopgap race between the Woody Stephens and the Amsterdam on that date, as opposed to being lost in the shuffle in mid-August, like it is now.
Sunday: It's the biggest day of the year, outside of the Haskell: United Nations Day! It's worth $500,000, and is at 1 3/8 miles on the grass. The headliner will be last year's winner, Main Sequence, who used this race as a stepping stone to three more G1 victories. The race will also be televised nationally on Fox Sports 1.
Besides that, there's also the Salvator Mile, going (surprise!) one mile on the dirt. It's a grade 3, also worth $150,000. It should also be a great race.
Beyond just the race, Monmouth is also giving away a free beach tote, with each paid admission. So make "shore" not to use the free admission passes you got the day before. There's also the annual "Red White and Blue" Party, featuring live music, barbeque, games, and eating contests, among other things. And, to make it even better, there's a $200 handicapping contest, featuring races from Monmouth and Woodbine. The top two finishers receive a spot in the 2016 National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas. The kicker? Sunday's weather is supposed to be beautiful.
So if you're in the area, be "shore" to stop by Monmouth Park this weekend. It's gonna be great!
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Sunday, June 28, 2015
Monmouth Racing Recap: 6/28/15
The second day of Wine-and-Win weekend drew 9,636 fans out to Monmouth, who combined with simulcast players to bet nearly $5 million on an off-the-grass program. By contrast, when I called my race on the last Sunday of June last year, only 8,416 people showed up in idyllic weather. I hope this is just a coincidence.
Race 1 (Scuba Sue, Kevin Fields-Jose Ferrer, 1:12.4)
Right idea, wrong horse. Havana Julie was way overbet, going off at 1/1. She battled with Scuba Sue on the rail, while the latter drew off to an easy score, and Havana Julie finished a distant last. The others in the field rated too far behind the duelers, and had no chance once Scuba Sue got away.
Race 2 (Credo, J. Thompson-Wilmer Garcia, 1:12.1)
No one challenged Credo for the lead, and he set a pokey :22.4 opening quarter. This enabled him to blow the rest of the field away, winning by almost nine lengths. There is no way he's getting a pace that slow in his next race, unless it's in a route or against harness horses. Buyer beware for next time.
Race 3 (Gottcha Blessin, Tony Wilson-Jose Ferrer, 1:39.2)
Three races, three gate-to-wire winners. Gottcha Blessin got some light pressure on the lead, brushed off everyone who tried to challenge, him, and won by six. Jose Ferrer's already got two wins from the first three races.
Race 4 (Bull Ensign, Claudio Gonzalez-Trevor McCarthy, 1:45.1)
Any notion of this track being speed biased after the first three races was blown to smithereens here. Bull Ensign was sixteen lengths off the leaders at one point, before swooping up three-wide around the turn, past the rest of his tired rivals, and won by eighteen lengths. That's the largest margin of victory by any horse this season. Just for some idea of that effort, here's his estimated fractions for each race:
1/4: 26.3
1/2: 50.2
3/4: 1:14.2
1M: 1:39.0
Final: 1:45.1
Race 5 (Crafty Chick, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:42.1)
Crafty Chick looked like a "shore"fire winner coming around the turn, after sitting a great two-wide trip off the pace. However, Don't Panic made a strong rally down the stretch, narrowly missing and cutting Crafty Chick's winning margin to a neck. Given there was no pace in the race whatsoever, Don't Panic's race looks fairly impressive. On the other hand, Crafty Chick also crawled home (with a :28 last quarter). So it's kind of a mixed bag.
Race 6 (SS Skittles, Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, 1:52.1)
SS Skittles sat a similar trip as Crafty Chick--he rated off the leader, moved up two-wide around the turn, and held off all the closers. The final time of this race, the first run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt this year, was 1:52.1, I imagine the Haskell will be a tad faster than that.
Race 7 (Dragonberry, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:42.4)
It was a thrilling stretch battle between Sunday Sonnet, who was a clear leader on the inside, Miss Wilby, who rated just off her two-wide, and Dragonberry, who was two-wide on the backstretch and in the three-path around the turn. Dragonberry wound up prevailing, however, going 3/5 of a second slower than the horses in the fifth. This is despite the fact that this race was 70 yards longer. Wow.
Race 8 (Snipers Hide, Terri Pompay-Elvis Trujillo, 1:46.3)
Despite being really wide around the first turn and down the backstretch, Snipers Hide blew by the rest of the field and won by five decisive lengths at 17/1. My pick, Secret Bid, sat a great trip, and looked loaded for bear around the turn, but had no response to the run of Snipers Hide.
This race is tinged with sadness, as Face the Race broke down in the stretch while being eased up, and became the first fatality during a race this season. Rest in Peace.
Race 9 (Irish You Well, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:44.0)
Irish You Well has won three races in his life, and all of them have come at Monmouth Park. Here, he rated off clear leader He's So Fine, then rolled on by to score. You gotta figure that the Monmouth Cup, on Haskell day, is next for him. It makes the most sense.
Race 10 (Have a Taste, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:05.2)
My pick, Misszippityslewda, whom I boldly proclaimed could not lose, wound up running last. I hate to make excuses, but I figure that the off-track had to have something to do with it. We'll see how she does on a fast track next time out.
As to the winner, Ghostly Dreams and Have a Taste battled for the lead, but Have a Taste wound up winning that battle, drawing off to a two-length score.
Race 11 (Salutos Amigos, David Jacobson-Cornelio Velazquez, 1:08.2)
Is Salutos Amigos the fastest horse in the country? It's certainly possible. He blew by the rest of the field like they were standing still, winning by four easy lengths in that very fast final time. He's wheeling back next week in the Smile Sprint at Gulfstream. Here's hoping he keeps up his American winning streak.
Race 12 (Diacetto, Claudio Gonzalez-Trevor McCarthy, 1:41.2)
The Gonzalez-McCarthy duo gets their second winner of the day. Here, Diacetto angled five-wide past some tired rivals to win going away.
Race 1 (Scuba Sue, Kevin Fields-Jose Ferrer, 1:12.4)
Right idea, wrong horse. Havana Julie was way overbet, going off at 1/1. She battled with Scuba Sue on the rail, while the latter drew off to an easy score, and Havana Julie finished a distant last. The others in the field rated too far behind the duelers, and had no chance once Scuba Sue got away.
Race 2 (Credo, J. Thompson-Wilmer Garcia, 1:12.1)
No one challenged Credo for the lead, and he set a pokey :22.4 opening quarter. This enabled him to blow the rest of the field away, winning by almost nine lengths. There is no way he's getting a pace that slow in his next race, unless it's in a route or against harness horses. Buyer beware for next time.
Race 3 (Gottcha Blessin, Tony Wilson-Jose Ferrer, 1:39.2)
Three races, three gate-to-wire winners. Gottcha Blessin got some light pressure on the lead, brushed off everyone who tried to challenge, him, and won by six. Jose Ferrer's already got two wins from the first three races.
Race 4 (Bull Ensign, Claudio Gonzalez-Trevor McCarthy, 1:45.1)
Any notion of this track being speed biased after the first three races was blown to smithereens here. Bull Ensign was sixteen lengths off the leaders at one point, before swooping up three-wide around the turn, past the rest of his tired rivals, and won by eighteen lengths. That's the largest margin of victory by any horse this season. Just for some idea of that effort, here's his estimated fractions for each race:
1/4: 26.3
1/2: 50.2
3/4: 1:14.2
1M: 1:39.0
Final: 1:45.1
Race 5 (Crafty Chick, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:42.1)
Crafty Chick looked like a "shore"fire winner coming around the turn, after sitting a great two-wide trip off the pace. However, Don't Panic made a strong rally down the stretch, narrowly missing and cutting Crafty Chick's winning margin to a neck. Given there was no pace in the race whatsoever, Don't Panic's race looks fairly impressive. On the other hand, Crafty Chick also crawled home (with a :28 last quarter). So it's kind of a mixed bag.
Race 6 (SS Skittles, Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, 1:52.1)
SS Skittles sat a similar trip as Crafty Chick--he rated off the leader, moved up two-wide around the turn, and held off all the closers. The final time of this race, the first run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt this year, was 1:52.1, I imagine the Haskell will be a tad faster than that.
Race 7 (Dragonberry, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:42.4)
It was a thrilling stretch battle between Sunday Sonnet, who was a clear leader on the inside, Miss Wilby, who rated just off her two-wide, and Dragonberry, who was two-wide on the backstretch and in the three-path around the turn. Dragonberry wound up prevailing, however, going 3/5 of a second slower than the horses in the fifth. This is despite the fact that this race was 70 yards longer. Wow.
Race 8 (Snipers Hide, Terri Pompay-Elvis Trujillo, 1:46.3)
Despite being really wide around the first turn and down the backstretch, Snipers Hide blew by the rest of the field and won by five decisive lengths at 17/1. My pick, Secret Bid, sat a great trip, and looked loaded for bear around the turn, but had no response to the run of Snipers Hide.
This race is tinged with sadness, as Face the Race broke down in the stretch while being eased up, and became the first fatality during a race this season. Rest in Peace.
Race 9 (Irish You Well, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:44.0)
Irish You Well has won three races in his life, and all of them have come at Monmouth Park. Here, he rated off clear leader He's So Fine, then rolled on by to score. You gotta figure that the Monmouth Cup, on Haskell day, is next for him. It makes the most sense.
Race 10 (Have a Taste, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:05.2)
My pick, Misszippityslewda, whom I boldly proclaimed could not lose, wound up running last. I hate to make excuses, but I figure that the off-track had to have something to do with it. We'll see how she does on a fast track next time out.
As to the winner, Ghostly Dreams and Have a Taste battled for the lead, but Have a Taste wound up winning that battle, drawing off to a two-length score.
Race 11 (Salutos Amigos, David Jacobson-Cornelio Velazquez, 1:08.2)
Is Salutos Amigos the fastest horse in the country? It's certainly possible. He blew by the rest of the field like they were standing still, winning by four easy lengths in that very fast final time. He's wheeling back next week in the Smile Sprint at Gulfstream. Here's hoping he keeps up his American winning streak.
Race 12 (Diacetto, Claudio Gonzalez-Trevor McCarthy, 1:41.2)
The Gonzalez-McCarthy duo gets their second winner of the day. Here, Diacetto angled five-wide past some tired rivals to win going away.
Saturday, June 27, 2015
June 28, 2015: Picks and Analysis
It's already the last Sunday of June, which means that we are only one week away from the United Nations Stakes here at Monmouth. It's part of the big Independence Day weekend here, with plenty of festivities to en"shore" a great weekend.
Right now, though, 12 races are scheduled for this Sunday. Heavy rain is expected overnight, so I will handicap these assuming the races will be off the grass. That would be a first all season.
Weather Forecast: 83*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll try to beat likely favorite Havana Julie with the 1, I Just Wanna Win. The latter has already won three times, qualifying for this race under the open three-year-old condition. She ships in from Parx, where she recently won an open claiming race in gate-to-wire fashion, earning a brisnet figure of 76. She's got post 1, enabling her to take control of the pace and (hopefully), draw off to victory.
On paper, the 2, Havana Julie, looks the best, earning back-to-back figures of 86 and 81. However, those two races were run while in the barn of Jamie Ness. Now, she makes her first start for Patricia Farro, and I don't know if she'll be able to duplicate those figures. She may very well, but I wouldn't bet on it. The 3, Ryabinka, has burned me enough times this year, but her figures remain strong.
1- I Just Wanna Win (4/1)
2- Havana Julie (3/2)
3- Ryabinka (4/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
In a race like this, any horse with anything even resembling form merits consideration. Here, the 5, Cayden Cam, earned a 68 in his first race, on June 12 here at Monmouth. Only two other horses in the field have done that well, ever, and they are 0-31 and 0-13, respectively. Furthermore, those figures weren't earned in recent memory, nor on their first start. Cayden Cam can improve off that race, and finished the best out of everyone exiting that race. He's my pick.
The 8, Paper Street, ran a 67 in his last outing, but hasn't been a serious contender in any of his recent races. Has he found a race weak enough that he can excel? We'll see. The 2, Irace, broke slowly in his debut, and may improve if he gets away cleanly.
5- Cayden Cam (2/1)
8- Paper Street (5/1)
2- Irace (4/1)
Race 3: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Eleven horses will contest this one. The most interesting of these is the 3, Alpha Dude, shipping in from Delaware Park. He's trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Trevor McCarthy, which would make him an attractive prospect on his own. He possesses another important quality: early speed. In his last start, he was on the pace through a :23 and :47.2 pace, only to fade and hold on for second. Here, nobody else really runs early on, and with his inside post, he should have a cakewalk to the lead. It's unlikely he'll have as fast of a pace as he did in his last race, and he'll use that to draw off to victory.
The 5, Colonel Jordan, was wide the entire way last out, yet demolished a field of maiden claimers at this distance. The 6, Philip, was vanned off in his last start at Belmont. However, he's been working well there, meaning that whatever was bothering him has persumably been worked out, and he'll be back to his form, which included a 72 figure in the last race he completed. That's the second-best last-out figure in the race.
3- Alpha Dude (7/2)
6- Philip (10/1)
5- Colonel Jordan (7/2)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll go with the 9, Bull Ensign. He made his dirt debut last out, where he broke slowly and was wide throughout. Even so, he earned a 77 in that race, best among anybody in the field. He looks to be the best.
The 1, Brad and the Gang, has run strong races on the dirt, but those have been in sprints. Who knows how he'll run stretching out? The 3, Quiet Ray, earned a decent 67 in the lone dirt race that he finished, and has shown strong grass form. He hopes to translate to dirt, if the weather forecast holds up.
9- Bull Ensign
1- Brad and the Gang
3- Quiet Ray
Race 5: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
A tough field to handicap greets us here, as nobody has really shown much form. As such, I lean toward the strong connections, and pick the 7, Crafty Chick. She was dull in her last race at Tampa Bay Downs, being annihilated by 18 lengths. However, she's been working well in her preparation for her return, and trainer Jorge Navarro hits at an impressive 36% first off the layoff. Both of her career wins have also come at a route distance, including a win at Tampa in early January. She may be overbet here, but she's the most likely winner.
The 5, Sandbag, has the best last-out figure and early speed. The 6, Weather Permitting, has been disappointing at this level earlier in the year, but has been second and third in her last two. Is this race her breakthrough? We'll see.
7- Crafty Chick (5/2)
5- Sandbag (3/1)
6- Weather Permitting (7/2)
Race 6: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles
My pick is the 5, Lure of the South. In his last dirt outing, on May 25, he made a sweeping four-wide move around the turn, just missing by a head. On grass last out, he made a similar move, missing by a half-length. Against a field of dubious quality, that big move should be the key to a win.
The 6, Arc Above, showed good form in off-the-grass races last year. However, he was terrible in his last dirt race, losing by 33 lengths at Aqueduct in December. He has the right to bounce back here, but I'd prefer a horse with better recent form.
5- Lure of the South
6- Arc Above
7- Fort Boonesborough
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Any horse who looked impressive at Belmont, and is now shipping into Monmouth, is dangerous. The 5, Tiger Moth, fits that profile. She won her first race last out, rallying after a slow start to win by 3/4 of a length. She earned a figure of 86 in that race, the best last-out number in the field. She's got the riding services of Joe Bravo, and the training of Todd Pletcher. I think she'll make it two in a row here.
The 7, Dragonberry, also looks competitive on paper, but she's only 1-9 lifetime, with four seconds. That shows me that she seems rather averse to winning, and I don't want to bet a horse like that. She's worth consideration for the exotic spots, however. The 4, Wraith, was shuffled back behind a fading rival in her last race. That compromised her race, and she should improve with a cleaner trip.
5- Tiger Moth (5/2)
7- Dragonberry (3/1)
4- Wraith (6/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I know that he hasn't raced on dirt in almost fifteen months, but when a horse has an edge like the 9, Secret Bid, does, it's hard to ignore it. He last ran on dirt at Keeneland in April 2014, and even though he was defeated by sixteen lengths, he earned a figure of 84 there. In the start before that, he had an 86. That's the best going a route in this field by a long, long way. He recently completed an ill-advised steeplechase experiment, and I foresee improvement when switching back to dirt.
9- Secret Bid
2- Monkey Chunky
1- Face the Race
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
An interesting bunch of eight lines up here, including last year's Long Branch Stakes winner, Irish You Well, and No Surrender, who is named after a Bruce Springsteen song. That automatically makes him great.
However, I will not go with either of them (although Irish You Well is dangerous, as his only two wins have come at Monmouth). Rather, I'll take the 4, He's So Fine. In his last race, he earned a best-in-the-field best of 96, while losing to the endlessly tough and lovable Freestyler. He's been working very well since then, suggesting that at least a repeat of that 96 figure is in order. That would make him a very likely winner.
Also one to consider is the 3, Dudeman, who ran decently at this level at Parx in his first start off the layoff. He earned a 93 there, and has run up to a 96 in the past. By the way, that 96 was earned over a sealed track. It's a distinct possibility that the track will be sealed again Sunday.
4- He's So Fine (5/2)
3- Dudeman (7/2)
5- Irish You Well (3/1)
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Should this race be on the dirt, the 12, Misszippityslewda, would have a hard time losing. Her last dirt race was absolutely smashing, as she destroyed an allowance field by 12 easy lengths. She earned a 90 in that race, and has earned up to a 92 in the past. Nobody else in this bunch has been able to sniff that figure. She's a cinch.
12- Misszippityslewda
2- Have a Taste
6- Offlee Sheikh
Race 11: Mr. Prospector Stakes, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If anything in this world makes sense, then the 5, Salutos Amigos, will win going away, laughing. Forget about the Dubai bounce, and forget about this race being a prep for Saratoga. He's so much better than anyone else in the field, it really isn't even funny. He's won four straight races in the United States, earning figures up to 114. Nobody here even comes close to that figure. He's going to win, barring some kind of tragic mishap/alien abduction.
5- Salutos Amigos (1/1)
6- Happy My Way (5/2)
2- Rainbow Heir (7/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
My pick to close the Sunday show is the 9, Diacetto. He improved greatly off that first start of the year, going from earning a 63 figure two back, to a 72. That's the best last-out figure in the race, and, even better, it was earned in a route race, as opposed to in a sprint. That shows he's ready to tackle the route distance presented here.
The 4, No Brody No, has also run great figures, but those were in sprint races, and now he's stretching out to a route. The 5, Star Academy was a distant third behind Diacetto in his last race, but his figures are still better than anyone else's in the field.
9- Diacetto (3/1)
4- No Brody No (6/1)
5- Star Academy (6/1)
Right now, though, 12 races are scheduled for this Sunday. Heavy rain is expected overnight, so I will handicap these assuming the races will be off the grass. That would be a first all season.
Weather Forecast: 83*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll try to beat likely favorite Havana Julie with the 1, I Just Wanna Win. The latter has already won three times, qualifying for this race under the open three-year-old condition. She ships in from Parx, where she recently won an open claiming race in gate-to-wire fashion, earning a brisnet figure of 76. She's got post 1, enabling her to take control of the pace and (hopefully), draw off to victory.
On paper, the 2, Havana Julie, looks the best, earning back-to-back figures of 86 and 81. However, those two races were run while in the barn of Jamie Ness. Now, she makes her first start for Patricia Farro, and I don't know if she'll be able to duplicate those figures. She may very well, but I wouldn't bet on it. The 3, Ryabinka, has burned me enough times this year, but her figures remain strong.
1- I Just Wanna Win (4/1)
2- Havana Julie (3/2)
3- Ryabinka (4/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
In a race like this, any horse with anything even resembling form merits consideration. Here, the 5, Cayden Cam, earned a 68 in his first race, on June 12 here at Monmouth. Only two other horses in the field have done that well, ever, and they are 0-31 and 0-13, respectively. Furthermore, those figures weren't earned in recent memory, nor on their first start. Cayden Cam can improve off that race, and finished the best out of everyone exiting that race. He's my pick.
The 8, Paper Street, ran a 67 in his last outing, but hasn't been a serious contender in any of his recent races. Has he found a race weak enough that he can excel? We'll see. The 2, Irace, broke slowly in his debut, and may improve if he gets away cleanly.
5- Cayden Cam (2/1)
8- Paper Street (5/1)
2- Irace (4/1)
Race 3: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Eleven horses will contest this one. The most interesting of these is the 3, Alpha Dude, shipping in from Delaware Park. He's trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Trevor McCarthy, which would make him an attractive prospect on his own. He possesses another important quality: early speed. In his last start, he was on the pace through a :23 and :47.2 pace, only to fade and hold on for second. Here, nobody else really runs early on, and with his inside post, he should have a cakewalk to the lead. It's unlikely he'll have as fast of a pace as he did in his last race, and he'll use that to draw off to victory.
The 5, Colonel Jordan, was wide the entire way last out, yet demolished a field of maiden claimers at this distance. The 6, Philip, was vanned off in his last start at Belmont. However, he's been working well there, meaning that whatever was bothering him has persumably been worked out, and he'll be back to his form, which included a 72 figure in the last race he completed. That's the second-best last-out figure in the race.
3- Alpha Dude (7/2)
6- Philip (10/1)
5- Colonel Jordan (7/2)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll go with the 9, Bull Ensign. He made his dirt debut last out, where he broke slowly and was wide throughout. Even so, he earned a 77 in that race, best among anybody in the field. He looks to be the best.
The 1, Brad and the Gang, has run strong races on the dirt, but those have been in sprints. Who knows how he'll run stretching out? The 3, Quiet Ray, earned a decent 67 in the lone dirt race that he finished, and has shown strong grass form. He hopes to translate to dirt, if the weather forecast holds up.
9- Bull Ensign
1- Brad and the Gang
3- Quiet Ray
Race 5: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
A tough field to handicap greets us here, as nobody has really shown much form. As such, I lean toward the strong connections, and pick the 7, Crafty Chick. She was dull in her last race at Tampa Bay Downs, being annihilated by 18 lengths. However, she's been working well in her preparation for her return, and trainer Jorge Navarro hits at an impressive 36% first off the layoff. Both of her career wins have also come at a route distance, including a win at Tampa in early January. She may be overbet here, but she's the most likely winner.
The 5, Sandbag, has the best last-out figure and early speed. The 6, Weather Permitting, has been disappointing at this level earlier in the year, but has been second and third in her last two. Is this race her breakthrough? We'll see.
7- Crafty Chick (5/2)
5- Sandbag (3/1)
6- Weather Permitting (7/2)
Race 6: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles
My pick is the 5, Lure of the South. In his last dirt outing, on May 25, he made a sweeping four-wide move around the turn, just missing by a head. On grass last out, he made a similar move, missing by a half-length. Against a field of dubious quality, that big move should be the key to a win.
The 6, Arc Above, showed good form in off-the-grass races last year. However, he was terrible in his last dirt race, losing by 33 lengths at Aqueduct in December. He has the right to bounce back here, but I'd prefer a horse with better recent form.
5- Lure of the South
6- Arc Above
7- Fort Boonesborough
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Any horse who looked impressive at Belmont, and is now shipping into Monmouth, is dangerous. The 5, Tiger Moth, fits that profile. She won her first race last out, rallying after a slow start to win by 3/4 of a length. She earned a figure of 86 in that race, the best last-out number in the field. She's got the riding services of Joe Bravo, and the training of Todd Pletcher. I think she'll make it two in a row here.
The 7, Dragonberry, also looks competitive on paper, but she's only 1-9 lifetime, with four seconds. That shows me that she seems rather averse to winning, and I don't want to bet a horse like that. She's worth consideration for the exotic spots, however. The 4, Wraith, was shuffled back behind a fading rival in her last race. That compromised her race, and she should improve with a cleaner trip.
5- Tiger Moth (5/2)
7- Dragonberry (3/1)
4- Wraith (6/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I know that he hasn't raced on dirt in almost fifteen months, but when a horse has an edge like the 9, Secret Bid, does, it's hard to ignore it. He last ran on dirt at Keeneland in April 2014, and even though he was defeated by sixteen lengths, he earned a figure of 84 there. In the start before that, he had an 86. That's the best going a route in this field by a long, long way. He recently completed an ill-advised steeplechase experiment, and I foresee improvement when switching back to dirt.
9- Secret Bid
2- Monkey Chunky
1- Face the Race
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
An interesting bunch of eight lines up here, including last year's Long Branch Stakes winner, Irish You Well, and No Surrender, who is named after a Bruce Springsteen song. That automatically makes him great.
However, I will not go with either of them (although Irish You Well is dangerous, as his only two wins have come at Monmouth). Rather, I'll take the 4, He's So Fine. In his last race, he earned a best-in-the-field best of 96, while losing to the endlessly tough and lovable Freestyler. He's been working very well since then, suggesting that at least a repeat of that 96 figure is in order. That would make him a very likely winner.
Also one to consider is the 3, Dudeman, who ran decently at this level at Parx in his first start off the layoff. He earned a 93 there, and has run up to a 96 in the past. By the way, that 96 was earned over a sealed track. It's a distinct possibility that the track will be sealed again Sunday.
4- He's So Fine (5/2)
3- Dudeman (7/2)
5- Irish You Well (3/1)
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Should this race be on the dirt, the 12, Misszippityslewda, would have a hard time losing. Her last dirt race was absolutely smashing, as she destroyed an allowance field by 12 easy lengths. She earned a 90 in that race, and has earned up to a 92 in the past. Nobody else in this bunch has been able to sniff that figure. She's a cinch.
12- Misszippityslewda
2- Have a Taste
6- Offlee Sheikh
Race 11: Mr. Prospector Stakes, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If anything in this world makes sense, then the 5, Salutos Amigos, will win going away, laughing. Forget about the Dubai bounce, and forget about this race being a prep for Saratoga. He's so much better than anyone else in the field, it really isn't even funny. He's won four straight races in the United States, earning figures up to 114. Nobody here even comes close to that figure. He's going to win, barring some kind of tragic mishap/alien abduction.
5- Salutos Amigos (1/1)
6- Happy My Way (5/2)
2- Rainbow Heir (7/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
My pick to close the Sunday show is the 9, Diacetto. He improved greatly off that first start of the year, going from earning a 63 figure two back, to a 72. That's the best last-out figure in the race, and, even better, it was earned in a route race, as opposed to in a sprint. That shows he's ready to tackle the route distance presented here.
The 4, No Brody No, has also run great figures, but those were in sprint races, and now he's stretching out to a route. The 5, Star Academy was a distant third behind Diacetto in his last race, but his figures are still better than anyone else's in the field.
9- Diacetto (3/1)
4- No Brody No (6/1)
5- Star Academy (6/1)
Monmouth Racing Recap: 6/27/15
Who knew that Eatontown Handicap day was such a draw for bettors? Today marked a season-high handle, of $5,693,357. And, despite less-than-great weather, 8,013 people showed up, only a smidge less than last year's beautiful weather figure of 8,032. Good stuff!
Race 1 (Awesome Slew, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, :58.3)
Awesome Slew was indeed awesome on debut. He dueled with leading Not So Quiet Man, brushed him away, then held off the challenge of perfect-trip Remarkable Tale. It was a big effort for the Plesa colt, who stopped the clock in :58.3. I'd like to see him in the Sanford at Saratoga next.
Race 2 (Keepin it Zeal, Dimitrios Synnefias-Wilmer Garcia, 1:11.3)
Jimmy Connors looked like a "shore"fire winner going around the turn, as Rocket Man Richie was flattening out, and Keepin it Zeal appeared to be fading on the rail. Keepin it Zeal, however, re-rerallied on the inside to upset the heavy favorite. Even though I didn't have that winner, I still don't know why people thought betting Jimmy Connors at 3/5 was a good idea. Who would do that?
Race 3 (Pop Start, Jason Servis-Gabriel Saez, 1:12.1)
It was the first disqualification of a winner all season, and of course it came at my expense. I said pre-race that Fakery couldn't lose, and she didn't, crossing the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front. This was after brushing off two rivals who came up to challenge for the lead on her outside. Unfortunately, she drifted in in the stretch, cutting off Pop Start, who was making a big move on the rail. This meant Fakery was disqualified and placed second. Was it the right call? Hard to say. But I wish it didn't have to come while costing me a cinch that would've paid a generous $4.80.
Race 4 (Where's That Cat, Gerald Bennett-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.2)
I'll give some credit to Trevor McCarthy, who gave Where's That Cat a very heads-up ride here. He sent his mount immediately to the front, and it was all over from there. Sublime Twist made some decent ground on the outside to finish second, cutting Where's That Cat's winning margin by more than half.
There were a season-high four claims out of this race: winner Where's That Cat went to Bernardo Sobrazo, fifth-place Bobby V to Jamie Ness, Sublime Twist to Tim Kelly, and fourth-place Awesome Heart to Bruce Alexander.
Race 5 (Brahman, Angela Traitz-Luis Rivera, 1:11.3)
Bombs away times three! 64/1 Brahman had the dream race, as he sat a great trip off two duelers. Furthermore, every other contender in the field didn't fire, so Brahman essentially won by default. Not only did he win, 32/1 Bat Cave rallied from nowhere to finish second, and 15/1 Iron Dale Al hung in there to finish third. The trifecta returned more than $5,000 for a $1 bet.
Race 6 (Hop Skip and Away, Steve Klesaris-Paco Lopez, 1:05.1)
Note to self: don't doubt the old warriors. Hop Skip and Away, at age 10, sat off a three-way speed duel, angled three-wide around the turn, and grinded past leader Exchange the Limit to win it. That's his second win of 2015, from seven starts. He's raced at Monmouth Park for nine seasons, and he's won at seven of them! Seven years of winning at Monmouth! They got to name a race after this horse when it's all said and done.
Race 7 (Trish's Wish, Henry Carroll-Jose Ferrer, 1:03.1)
Nobody tried to challenge Trish's Wish for the lead, meaning that no one could pass her at the end. That kind of stuff tends to happen in situations like that.
Race 8 (Lucky Bella, Eddie Broome-Paco Lopez, 1:45.0)
Gallant Lady was well clear down the backstretch, but once she was actually pressured on the lead, the party was over. Lucky Bella made a two-wide move for the lead, and she drew off after no one else was even remotely close to challenging her for the lead. Sweet on Smokey, who was taking that suspicious class drop, kind of tried to pass, but ultimately, couldn't.
Race 9 (Precious Paula, Skip Einhorn-Nik Juarez, 1:44.1)
Another key example of how trips matter. The winner, Precious Paula, sat a terrific trip tucked in behind the leaders, then rallied through a hole on the rail to win it. Archer Queen, meanwhile, was fanned a ridiculous six-wide around the far turn, but still rallied nobly to finish a solid second. Watch for Archer Queen next time if she faces a bit of a softer field.
Race 10 (Private Estate, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:12.1)
Private Estate was bet down to a ridiculous 4/5. She ran like she deserved to be those odds, though, battling for the lead two-wide and drawing off to an easy score. Pointe Class rated off that duel and looked to be loaded for bear around the turn, but had less than no response to being asked in the stretch.
Race 11 (I'm Already Sexy, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:41.1)
Back-to-back winners for Wayne Catalano and Paco Lopez, but this winner paid a generous $16.80. I'm Already Sexy made a three-wide sweep around the turn, and wound up holding off both Kenzadargent on the rail and stellar path on the outside to score. That big move that just missed in the Mint Julep, but it worked well here. Paco Lopez got his fifth winner of the day. Is the Matchmaker next?
Race 12 (Charlie's Rainbow, Brenda McCarthy-Jose Ferrer, 1:13.0)
Once again, a horse who isn't challenged on the lead wins for fun. Charlie's Rainbow was allowed to set a slow :22.4 opening quarter, and none of the others could even come close. Same old story...
Race 1 (Awesome Slew, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, :58.3)
Awesome Slew was indeed awesome on debut. He dueled with leading Not So Quiet Man, brushed him away, then held off the challenge of perfect-trip Remarkable Tale. It was a big effort for the Plesa colt, who stopped the clock in :58.3. I'd like to see him in the Sanford at Saratoga next.
Race 2 (Keepin it Zeal, Dimitrios Synnefias-Wilmer Garcia, 1:11.3)
Jimmy Connors looked like a "shore"fire winner going around the turn, as Rocket Man Richie was flattening out, and Keepin it Zeal appeared to be fading on the rail. Keepin it Zeal, however, re-rerallied on the inside to upset the heavy favorite. Even though I didn't have that winner, I still don't know why people thought betting Jimmy Connors at 3/5 was a good idea. Who would do that?
Race 3 (Pop Start, Jason Servis-Gabriel Saez, 1:12.1)
It was the first disqualification of a winner all season, and of course it came at my expense. I said pre-race that Fakery couldn't lose, and she didn't, crossing the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front. This was after brushing off two rivals who came up to challenge for the lead on her outside. Unfortunately, she drifted in in the stretch, cutting off Pop Start, who was making a big move on the rail. This meant Fakery was disqualified and placed second. Was it the right call? Hard to say. But I wish it didn't have to come while costing me a cinch that would've paid a generous $4.80.
Race 4 (Where's That Cat, Gerald Bennett-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.2)
I'll give some credit to Trevor McCarthy, who gave Where's That Cat a very heads-up ride here. He sent his mount immediately to the front, and it was all over from there. Sublime Twist made some decent ground on the outside to finish second, cutting Where's That Cat's winning margin by more than half.
There were a season-high four claims out of this race: winner Where's That Cat went to Bernardo Sobrazo, fifth-place Bobby V to Jamie Ness, Sublime Twist to Tim Kelly, and fourth-place Awesome Heart to Bruce Alexander.
Race 5 (Brahman, Angela Traitz-Luis Rivera, 1:11.3)
Bombs away times three! 64/1 Brahman had the dream race, as he sat a great trip off two duelers. Furthermore, every other contender in the field didn't fire, so Brahman essentially won by default. Not only did he win, 32/1 Bat Cave rallied from nowhere to finish second, and 15/1 Iron Dale Al hung in there to finish third. The trifecta returned more than $5,000 for a $1 bet.
Race 6 (Hop Skip and Away, Steve Klesaris-Paco Lopez, 1:05.1)
Note to self: don't doubt the old warriors. Hop Skip and Away, at age 10, sat off a three-way speed duel, angled three-wide around the turn, and grinded past leader Exchange the Limit to win it. That's his second win of 2015, from seven starts. He's raced at Monmouth Park for nine seasons, and he's won at seven of them! Seven years of winning at Monmouth! They got to name a race after this horse when it's all said and done.
Race 7 (Trish's Wish, Henry Carroll-Jose Ferrer, 1:03.1)
Nobody tried to challenge Trish's Wish for the lead, meaning that no one could pass her at the end. That kind of stuff tends to happen in situations like that.
Race 8 (Lucky Bella, Eddie Broome-Paco Lopez, 1:45.0)
Gallant Lady was well clear down the backstretch, but once she was actually pressured on the lead, the party was over. Lucky Bella made a two-wide move for the lead, and she drew off after no one else was even remotely close to challenging her for the lead. Sweet on Smokey, who was taking that suspicious class drop, kind of tried to pass, but ultimately, couldn't.
Race 9 (Precious Paula, Skip Einhorn-Nik Juarez, 1:44.1)
Another key example of how trips matter. The winner, Precious Paula, sat a terrific trip tucked in behind the leaders, then rallied through a hole on the rail to win it. Archer Queen, meanwhile, was fanned a ridiculous six-wide around the far turn, but still rallied nobly to finish a solid second. Watch for Archer Queen next time if she faces a bit of a softer field.
Race 10 (Private Estate, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:12.1)
Private Estate was bet down to a ridiculous 4/5. She ran like she deserved to be those odds, though, battling for the lead two-wide and drawing off to an easy score. Pointe Class rated off that duel and looked to be loaded for bear around the turn, but had less than no response to being asked in the stretch.
Race 11 (I'm Already Sexy, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:41.1)
Back-to-back winners for Wayne Catalano and Paco Lopez, but this winner paid a generous $16.80. I'm Already Sexy made a three-wide sweep around the turn, and wound up holding off both Kenzadargent on the rail and stellar path on the outside to score. That big move that just missed in the Mint Julep, but it worked well here. Paco Lopez got his fifth winner of the day. Is the Matchmaker next?
Race 12 (Charlie's Rainbow, Brenda McCarthy-Jose Ferrer, 1:13.0)
Once again, a horse who isn't challenged on the lead wins for fun. Charlie's Rainbow was allowed to set a slow :22.4 opening quarter, and none of the others could even come close. Same old story...
Friday, June 26, 2015
June 27, 2015: Picks and Analysis
Another fun Saturday is on tap here at Monmouth Park: 12 races are scheduled, including the Grade 3, $100,000 Eatontown Handicap, which drew a solid field of 14. There's 11 others to handicap, however, so let's begin.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 Furlongs
Only one horse in this seven-horse bunch has any experience: the 2, Not So Quiet Man, who was not so great in his debut. It's tough to separate the rest of the first-time starters, but I'll take a shot with the 3, Remarkable Tale. All of his workouts to prepare for this race have been strong: most recently a :47.4 effort on June 6. I know it's been a while since his last workout, but no one was working stronger than he was, which should bode for victory.
The 6, Paddy O'Wagon, has turned in good workouts as well. Not to mention, trainer Jane Cibelli has been having a great Monmouth meet, going 4-15.
3- Remarkable Tale (2/1)
6- Paddy O'Wagon (7/2)
4- Awesome Slew (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
A casual glance at the race would suggest that the 2, Eight Cents, is a contender. He was determined in his last race, running wide the whole way, only to miss by a half-length. Also, he's run better in sprints than at routes. He's cutting back to 6 furlongs here, suggesting he is the most likely winner.
However, I cannot, in good conscience, endorse a sucker horse like him. In his 23-start career, he's won only once, while coming in either second or third a whopping 14 times. That's no horse to put your money on, especially a horse, like him, who will probably go off as one of the favorites. Can he win? Yeah, of course he could. Would I bet him to win? No.
Instead, I'll take the 5, Rocket Man Richie, who was near the lead while racing wide all the way last out. He looked clear at the 1/8 pole, only to be caught late by Pelekas Beach. He still earned a brisnet figure of 80, the best in the field by four points. He should be a better value than Eight Cents, too. I'll take him.
And I will also say: avoid betting Jimmy Connors, the 4. He was running in allowance races last year, and now he's being dropped into a $12,500 claiming first off the layoff? No thanks!
5- Rocket Man Richie (3/1)
2- Eight Cents (5/1)
1- Keepin it Zeal (4/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
This race requires no imagination. The 2, Fakery, is a standout. In her last start, she was defeated by Bustin Out, who was 2/5 and could not have lost that race if she tried. Fakery lost that one by four, but was eleven lengths clear of the third place finisher. As a matter of fact, the third and fourth place horses in here are coming back in here. Fakery blew them away, and none of the others in here have shown anything showing that they can beat her. Fakery can't lose.
2- Fakery (3/2)
6- Golden Earrings (4/1)
7- Market Tales (4/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 5, Gansett Bay, has all the makings of a Monmouth Park winner. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he was just claimed by David Jacobson. His figures are the best in the field, having earned an 84 in his last outing. He's ridden by the best jockey here, Paco Lopez.
However, when one looks between the lines, alarms are raised. It's not just that he was claimed for $12,500 last out, and is now dropping in for $5,000. It's that his most recent workouts have been in plow horse time. He did 3 furlongs in a dawdling :40.0 in his last workout, and has gone as slowly as :41.1 in recent memory. That's bad news, and suggests he may be in for a low price for a reason. He'll also be a big favorite in here, too. I'll pass.
Instead, I'll take the 2, Back Forty. He's very consistent, earning figures in the high 70s-low 80s every time. Nobody else in the field who has four legs (looking at you, Gansett Bay) does that. He's taking a drop in class here, after being consistently overmatched at the open $12,500 level. I think he's found the spot where he'll excel, so I'll go with him.
The 6, Bob and the Gang, returns to dirt in this race, where he's shown better form. The 10, Awesome Heart, ran some great figures at the state-bred level at Aqueduct, but has a far outside post and is completely devoid of early speed. That may harm him at this distance.
2- Back Forty (5/1)
10- Awesome Heart (5/1)
6- Bob and the Gang (6/1)
Race 5: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
A similar field as the fourth race goes in the fifth. Even though he hasn't won in ten starts this year, it's hard to ignore the 9, Lagi Lagi, and his last race. He made a bold five-wide sweep around the turn, only missing by a close nose. Unlike in that race, he has some of the best figures in here, earning a 78, an 81, and an 88 in his last three. With a more ground-saving trip, he's the most likely winner.
The 8, Pepe, also has competitive figures, but hasn't raced since April. Trainer Jason Servis does have good stats off the layoff, but I'll look toward fresher rivals for the top spot. The 10, PJ's Magical Wink, has the best last out figure, of 88, which was earned in a race that he narrowly missed winning.
9- Lagi Lagi (4/1)
8- Pepe (5/2)
10- PJ's Magical Wink (7/2)
Race 6: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
First of all, my rooting interests in this race are squarely with the hard-knocking veteran Hop Skip and Away, who has post 6. He's run 75 times, winning eleven times, and is making is 2015 Monmouth debut here. However, he was lackadaisical in his last race at Belmont Park, so I am not "shore" how much he has left in his tank. Regardless, if he wins, it will be a great moment.
My money will be on the 8, Lookingoutforyou. He won his last race in restricted claiming company, at 2/5 odds. Now, he's going into open company, first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness. His figures are among the best, an 80, 77, and 89 in his last three. I'm feeling good about his chances here.
A bunch of others are candidates here, too. The 2, Street Brawl, was compromised by a stumbling start last out; before that, his figures were sharp. The 4, Exchange the Limit, broke very slowly in his last race, only to mount a rally and finish fifth. With a better start, he'll be dangerous. There's several horses in here who can win it, and if Lookingoutforyou is too low of a price, by all means, feel free to bet against him.
8- Lookingoutforyou (3/1)
6- Hop Skip and Away (8/5)
2- Street Brawl (7/2)
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
This race begins the all-female Jersey Shore 6. The 6, Indian Splendor, ran one of the best races anyone has run all season last out. She was hustled to the lead from the outside, but wound up getting caught in a duel through a :21.1 opening quarter. Despite all that, she held on to win by almost two lengths. It was a huge effort, one that earned a field-best figure of 92. It showed that, even if she gets entangled in a another duel, she can hang on and dust them off. A lot of the others whom she defeated in that race are coming back here, so a repeat of that last effort should be good enough here.
The 5, Peggy Joyce, is the most likely one to pick up the pieces if the leaders do indeed falter. That's what she did en route to victory here last out. The 8, Sweet Tooth Sweety, has some of the consistently best figures, but faltered despite a perfect set-up in that Indian Splendor race. Also, trainer Pat McBurney has been less-than-impressive at this Monmouth meet.
6- Indian Splendor (5/2)
5- Peggy Joyce (8/1)
8- Sweet Tooth Sweety (4/1)
Race 8: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
This is a tricky race to handicap. Nobody in the field has shown especially great form over two turns. The one with the best figures in the race, the 7, Sweet on Smokey, is taking a drop from the n/w2x allowance level, all the way down to n/w2L claiming. That's a really bad sign.
As such, I'll take the horse in the race who has run the best over a route of ground, and who isn't taking any suspicious drops: the 8, Whogoosedthemoose. She broke her maiden at Parx at this distance, earning a figure of 79. She's earned back-to-back 71s at Penn National most recently. It's not great, but it's the best among everybody going a route. She'll be my pick.
The 3, Anita Vacation, ran well over the winter at Laurel at 1 mile, but that was going one turn. We'll see how he stretches out. The 2, Gallant Lady, has the best figures in the field sprinting.
8- Whogoosedthemoose (6/1)
3- Anita Vacation (4/1)
2- Gallant Lady (6/1)
Race 9: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
A wide-open bunch begins the late pick 4. I'll take a shot with the 6, Pleasant McGee. She recently completed an experiment as a steeplechaser, where she went 0-3, with one second. On the flats, however, she's shown ability. Her last three figures on grass, earned last fall at Laurel, were 77, 76, and 72, all of which put her in the upper echelon of the field. Assuming she can run back to those, she's the most likely winner.
The 3, Echale Salista, has shown good form in recent times, earning a 77 in her last start over this course. However, she hasn't worked since then. The 8, Heaven Help Me, ran the same number in her last race, taking a big jump up in form. The only question is if she can maintain that form, or if she'll decline back down to the mid-60s.
6- Pleasant McGee (8/1)
3- Echale Salista (5/1)
8- Heaven Help Me (3/1)
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The likely favorite is the 5, Pointe Class. She earned a figure of 80 in her dirt debut last out, making her the only one in the field to show prior form. She's also trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Abel Castellano, which means that she'll be a low price. While she's got a very good chance of winning, there's some interesting first-time starters in here, so I'll look elsewhere.
Specifically, I'll look toward the 4, Private Estate. Trainer Wayne Catalano doesn't run many here at Monmouth, but when he does, they do well: he's won two races from six starters. Paco Lopez also takes the mount here. She's working well, too: most recently throwing down a :47.2 4 furlong bullet on June 22. She looks fresh and raring to go for this one, so I'll try to beat the most likely favorite with her.
The 8, Sudden Snowstorm, has similar form as Private Estate, turning in a good 3 furlong workout on June 23. She can upset this race, too.
4- Private Estate (5/2)
5- Pointe Class (2/1)
8- Sudden Snowstorm (9/2)
Race 11: Eatontown Handicap, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The grade 3 Eatontown is Saturday's feature race. I'll go with the 6, Stellar Path, in here. Her figures going in here are the best, having earned a 96 and a 98 in her last two races. She led almost the whole way around in the grade 2 Nassau at Woodbine, only to lose by two lengths. Even so, it was an honest pace in that race, and she didn't have the figure edge in that race that she does here. She'll be my pick to add a graded stakes win to her resume.
The 10, I'm Already Sexy, ran a similar race last out in the Mint Julep Stakes at Churchill, but her figure was only a 93. However, if she can get a clear lead, she'll be one to watch. The 12, Old Harbor, will have to draw in off the also-eligible list to get in here (thanks, rail settings!), but she ran great first off the layoff in her last race. She can definitely improve here.
6- Stellar Path (7/2)
10- I'm Already Sexy (6/1)
12- Old Harbor (20/1)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll wrap things up with the 5, Lina Bella. She earned a figure of 59 in her last race, best in the field. She was also six lengths clear of the fourth-place finisher in that third-place effort, showing superiority over the rest in the field. Furthermore, she's earned figures as high as 66 in the past.
The 8, O'Lucey, lost the jockey at the start in her last race, but ran competitive numbers before that outing. The 3, Lil St. Cyr, makes her second start off the layoff here.
5- Lina Bella (3/1)
8- O'Lucey (5/2)
3- Lili St. Cyr (4/1)
First post on Eatontown Handicap day is 12:50 PM. Good luck!
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 Furlongs
Only one horse in this seven-horse bunch has any experience: the 2, Not So Quiet Man, who was not so great in his debut. It's tough to separate the rest of the first-time starters, but I'll take a shot with the 3, Remarkable Tale. All of his workouts to prepare for this race have been strong: most recently a :47.4 effort on June 6. I know it's been a while since his last workout, but no one was working stronger than he was, which should bode for victory.
The 6, Paddy O'Wagon, has turned in good workouts as well. Not to mention, trainer Jane Cibelli has been having a great Monmouth meet, going 4-15.
3- Remarkable Tale (2/1)
6- Paddy O'Wagon (7/2)
4- Awesome Slew (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
A casual glance at the race would suggest that the 2, Eight Cents, is a contender. He was determined in his last race, running wide the whole way, only to miss by a half-length. Also, he's run better in sprints than at routes. He's cutting back to 6 furlongs here, suggesting he is the most likely winner.
However, I cannot, in good conscience, endorse a sucker horse like him. In his 23-start career, he's won only once, while coming in either second or third a whopping 14 times. That's no horse to put your money on, especially a horse, like him, who will probably go off as one of the favorites. Can he win? Yeah, of course he could. Would I bet him to win? No.
Instead, I'll take the 5, Rocket Man Richie, who was near the lead while racing wide all the way last out. He looked clear at the 1/8 pole, only to be caught late by Pelekas Beach. He still earned a brisnet figure of 80, the best in the field by four points. He should be a better value than Eight Cents, too. I'll take him.
And I will also say: avoid betting Jimmy Connors, the 4. He was running in allowance races last year, and now he's being dropped into a $12,500 claiming first off the layoff? No thanks!
5- Rocket Man Richie (3/1)
2- Eight Cents (5/1)
1- Keepin it Zeal (4/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
This race requires no imagination. The 2, Fakery, is a standout. In her last start, she was defeated by Bustin Out, who was 2/5 and could not have lost that race if she tried. Fakery lost that one by four, but was eleven lengths clear of the third place finisher. As a matter of fact, the third and fourth place horses in here are coming back in here. Fakery blew them away, and none of the others in here have shown anything showing that they can beat her. Fakery can't lose.
2- Fakery (3/2)
6- Golden Earrings (4/1)
7- Market Tales (4/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 5, Gansett Bay, has all the makings of a Monmouth Park winner. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he was just claimed by David Jacobson. His figures are the best in the field, having earned an 84 in his last outing. He's ridden by the best jockey here, Paco Lopez.
However, when one looks between the lines, alarms are raised. It's not just that he was claimed for $12,500 last out, and is now dropping in for $5,000. It's that his most recent workouts have been in plow horse time. He did 3 furlongs in a dawdling :40.0 in his last workout, and has gone as slowly as :41.1 in recent memory. That's bad news, and suggests he may be in for a low price for a reason. He'll also be a big favorite in here, too. I'll pass.
Instead, I'll take the 2, Back Forty. He's very consistent, earning figures in the high 70s-low 80s every time. Nobody else in the field who has four legs (looking at you, Gansett Bay) does that. He's taking a drop in class here, after being consistently overmatched at the open $12,500 level. I think he's found the spot where he'll excel, so I'll go with him.
The 6, Bob and the Gang, returns to dirt in this race, where he's shown better form. The 10, Awesome Heart, ran some great figures at the state-bred level at Aqueduct, but has a far outside post and is completely devoid of early speed. That may harm him at this distance.
2- Back Forty (5/1)
10- Awesome Heart (5/1)
6- Bob and the Gang (6/1)
Race 5: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
A similar field as the fourth race goes in the fifth. Even though he hasn't won in ten starts this year, it's hard to ignore the 9, Lagi Lagi, and his last race. He made a bold five-wide sweep around the turn, only missing by a close nose. Unlike in that race, he has some of the best figures in here, earning a 78, an 81, and an 88 in his last three. With a more ground-saving trip, he's the most likely winner.
The 8, Pepe, also has competitive figures, but hasn't raced since April. Trainer Jason Servis does have good stats off the layoff, but I'll look toward fresher rivals for the top spot. The 10, PJ's Magical Wink, has the best last out figure, of 88, which was earned in a race that he narrowly missed winning.
9- Lagi Lagi (4/1)
8- Pepe (5/2)
10- PJ's Magical Wink (7/2)
Race 6: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
First of all, my rooting interests in this race are squarely with the hard-knocking veteran Hop Skip and Away, who has post 6. He's run 75 times, winning eleven times, and is making is 2015 Monmouth debut here. However, he was lackadaisical in his last race at Belmont Park, so I am not "shore" how much he has left in his tank. Regardless, if he wins, it will be a great moment.
My money will be on the 8, Lookingoutforyou. He won his last race in restricted claiming company, at 2/5 odds. Now, he's going into open company, first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness. His figures are among the best, an 80, 77, and 89 in his last three. I'm feeling good about his chances here.
A bunch of others are candidates here, too. The 2, Street Brawl, was compromised by a stumbling start last out; before that, his figures were sharp. The 4, Exchange the Limit, broke very slowly in his last race, only to mount a rally and finish fifth. With a better start, he'll be dangerous. There's several horses in here who can win it, and if Lookingoutforyou is too low of a price, by all means, feel free to bet against him.
8- Lookingoutforyou (3/1)
6- Hop Skip and Away (8/5)
2- Street Brawl (7/2)
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
This race begins the all-female Jersey Shore 6. The 6, Indian Splendor, ran one of the best races anyone has run all season last out. She was hustled to the lead from the outside, but wound up getting caught in a duel through a :21.1 opening quarter. Despite all that, she held on to win by almost two lengths. It was a huge effort, one that earned a field-best figure of 92. It showed that, even if she gets entangled in a another duel, she can hang on and dust them off. A lot of the others whom she defeated in that race are coming back here, so a repeat of that last effort should be good enough here.
The 5, Peggy Joyce, is the most likely one to pick up the pieces if the leaders do indeed falter. That's what she did en route to victory here last out. The 8, Sweet Tooth Sweety, has some of the consistently best figures, but faltered despite a perfect set-up in that Indian Splendor race. Also, trainer Pat McBurney has been less-than-impressive at this Monmouth meet.
6- Indian Splendor (5/2)
5- Peggy Joyce (8/1)
8- Sweet Tooth Sweety (4/1)
Race 8: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
This is a tricky race to handicap. Nobody in the field has shown especially great form over two turns. The one with the best figures in the race, the 7, Sweet on Smokey, is taking a drop from the n/w2x allowance level, all the way down to n/w2L claiming. That's a really bad sign.
As such, I'll take the horse in the race who has run the best over a route of ground, and who isn't taking any suspicious drops: the 8, Whogoosedthemoose. She broke her maiden at Parx at this distance, earning a figure of 79. She's earned back-to-back 71s at Penn National most recently. It's not great, but it's the best among everybody going a route. She'll be my pick.
The 3, Anita Vacation, ran well over the winter at Laurel at 1 mile, but that was going one turn. We'll see how he stretches out. The 2, Gallant Lady, has the best figures in the field sprinting.
8- Whogoosedthemoose (6/1)
3- Anita Vacation (4/1)
2- Gallant Lady (6/1)
Race 9: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
A wide-open bunch begins the late pick 4. I'll take a shot with the 6, Pleasant McGee. She recently completed an experiment as a steeplechaser, where she went 0-3, with one second. On the flats, however, she's shown ability. Her last three figures on grass, earned last fall at Laurel, were 77, 76, and 72, all of which put her in the upper echelon of the field. Assuming she can run back to those, she's the most likely winner.
The 3, Echale Salista, has shown good form in recent times, earning a 77 in her last start over this course. However, she hasn't worked since then. The 8, Heaven Help Me, ran the same number in her last race, taking a big jump up in form. The only question is if she can maintain that form, or if she'll decline back down to the mid-60s.
6- Pleasant McGee (8/1)
3- Echale Salista (5/1)
8- Heaven Help Me (3/1)
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The likely favorite is the 5, Pointe Class. She earned a figure of 80 in her dirt debut last out, making her the only one in the field to show prior form. She's also trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Abel Castellano, which means that she'll be a low price. While she's got a very good chance of winning, there's some interesting first-time starters in here, so I'll look elsewhere.
Specifically, I'll look toward the 4, Private Estate. Trainer Wayne Catalano doesn't run many here at Monmouth, but when he does, they do well: he's won two races from six starters. Paco Lopez also takes the mount here. She's working well, too: most recently throwing down a :47.2 4 furlong bullet on June 22. She looks fresh and raring to go for this one, so I'll try to beat the most likely favorite with her.
The 8, Sudden Snowstorm, has similar form as Private Estate, turning in a good 3 furlong workout on June 23. She can upset this race, too.
4- Private Estate (5/2)
5- Pointe Class (2/1)
8- Sudden Snowstorm (9/2)
Race 11: Eatontown Handicap, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The grade 3 Eatontown is Saturday's feature race. I'll go with the 6, Stellar Path, in here. Her figures going in here are the best, having earned a 96 and a 98 in her last two races. She led almost the whole way around in the grade 2 Nassau at Woodbine, only to lose by two lengths. Even so, it was an honest pace in that race, and she didn't have the figure edge in that race that she does here. She'll be my pick to add a graded stakes win to her resume.
The 10, I'm Already Sexy, ran a similar race last out in the Mint Julep Stakes at Churchill, but her figure was only a 93. However, if she can get a clear lead, she'll be one to watch. The 12, Old Harbor, will have to draw in off the also-eligible list to get in here (thanks, rail settings!), but she ran great first off the layoff in her last race. She can definitely improve here.
6- Stellar Path (7/2)
10- I'm Already Sexy (6/1)
12- Old Harbor (20/1)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll wrap things up with the 5, Lina Bella. She earned a figure of 59 in her last race, best in the field. She was also six lengths clear of the fourth-place finisher in that third-place effort, showing superiority over the rest in the field. Furthermore, she's earned figures as high as 66 in the past.
The 8, O'Lucey, lost the jockey at the start in her last race, but ran competitive numbers before that outing. The 3, Lil St. Cyr, makes her second start off the layoff here.
5- Lina Bella (3/1)
8- O'Lucey (5/2)
3- Lili St. Cyr (4/1)
First post on Eatontown Handicap day is 12:50 PM. Good luck!
Monmouth Racing Recap: 6/26/15
It was a beautiful day for racing, on the last Friday of June. Here's what happened:
Race 1 (Un Po Di Vino, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, :59.2)
The Pletcher entry, Privy Council, was unsurprisingly bet down to 4/5 favortism. She disappointed, running fourth despite getting a good trip off the leader. That leader was Un Po Di Vino, who was rushed to the lead just after breaking from the gate, and won it easily. She paid $5.60, a generous price for a Breen-Paco 2-year-old.
Race 2 (Lighthouse Sound, Bobby Dibona-Paco Lopez, 1:40.1)
Mythical Man ran an admirably good race at 17/1 odds. He dueled with Examen for the lead, who wound up finishing last. Mythical Man, however, held on almost the whole way, losing only to Lighthouse Sound and Best Actor, both of whom sat rail-skimming trips. Just goes to show you the impact saving ground can have on a race. Paco Lopez sweeps the double here.
Race 3 (Musket Mary, Claudio Gonzalez-Nik Juarez, 1:10.4)
Elmra dashed out to a really fast early lead, and once she faded, Musket Mary drew away. It was a tailor-made trip. $4.60 on her was, frankly, a gift, as she won by ten dominant lengths.
Race 4 (Rockette Jet, Manny Berrios-Inoel Beato, 1:06.0)
Last time out, Rockette Jet went to the lead, didn't get much pace pressure, and faded to finish seventh. This time, Inoel Beato tried a change of tactics, keeping her off the pace. It paid off, as she rallied three-wide and drew away to score, paying $48.60. Meanwhile, Twisted Kick, who had a brutally wide trip in her last race, set a clear early pace. She faded to finish third. Can't explain it.
Race 5 (Amizzen Grace, Arnaud Delacour-Daniel Centeno, 1:43.4)
There was more than a hour between the fourth and fifth races. I wasn't following the races early in the day, so I'm not "shore" what happened. If anyone out there knows, tell me.
Anyway, Amizzen Grace sat a great trip off leading Variety of Colors. She faded, and then Amizzen Grace had to hold off the challenge of Ansible to hold on. Ansible, by the way, checked fairly hard going around the far turn. You gotta figure that she had more than a neck's worth of trouble, meaning that she was the best in here. Keep that in mind for next time.
Race 6 (Parody, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:39.2)
Bea Wildcat, contrary to what I thought would happen, got a very clear lead down the backstretch. However, he wound up having nothing left by the far turn, and Parody strolled on by to win by five easy lengths. The last half of this race was run in a painfully slow :52.3.
Race 7 (Bluesville, Kathy O'Connell-Daniel Centeno, 1:35.4)
Daniel Centeno continues to be sharp with his grass mounts. Here, he made a three-wide move with his mount on the backstretch, then had her battle for the lead in the two-path throughout the stretch. She narrowly edged Forest Funds, who battled for the early lead two-wide, and sent her other rival into oblivion, along with Indian Chaser, who made a big four-wide move around the turn. Good races from all three finishers.
Race 8 (Chatt Hills, Jorge Navarro-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.4)
Once Guchi Gold scratched, the outcome of this one was a foregone conclusion. Chatt Hills dueled on the inside with Proud to be Wild, brushed her off, and won it easily.
Race 9 (Dedicated to Bob, Jorge Navarro-Carlos Olivero, :55.3)
The standard winning trip for Dedicated to Bob: he sat off the leader, then rolled by, then held off the challenges of closers Golden Story and Benny is a Jet. The other leader, Snowday, also held on pretty well, finishing third despite setting a :20.4 opening quarter mile.
Race 10 (Sunshine Sandy, David Lopez-Angel Serpa, 1:12.1)
Sunshine Sandy was bet down from a 10/1 morning line down to 7/2. Somebody must have known something, because she took the early lead, brushing off three rivals to do so, and won easily by six lengths at first asking.
That wraps up Friday's card. Saturday features the Eatontown Handicap, plus the return of Frank Mirahmadi. Don't miss it!
Race 1 (Un Po Di Vino, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, :59.2)
The Pletcher entry, Privy Council, was unsurprisingly bet down to 4/5 favortism. She disappointed, running fourth despite getting a good trip off the leader. That leader was Un Po Di Vino, who was rushed to the lead just after breaking from the gate, and won it easily. She paid $5.60, a generous price for a Breen-Paco 2-year-old.
Race 2 (Lighthouse Sound, Bobby Dibona-Paco Lopez, 1:40.1)
Mythical Man ran an admirably good race at 17/1 odds. He dueled with Examen for the lead, who wound up finishing last. Mythical Man, however, held on almost the whole way, losing only to Lighthouse Sound and Best Actor, both of whom sat rail-skimming trips. Just goes to show you the impact saving ground can have on a race. Paco Lopez sweeps the double here.
Race 3 (Musket Mary, Claudio Gonzalez-Nik Juarez, 1:10.4)
Elmra dashed out to a really fast early lead, and once she faded, Musket Mary drew away. It was a tailor-made trip. $4.60 on her was, frankly, a gift, as she won by ten dominant lengths.
Race 4 (Rockette Jet, Manny Berrios-Inoel Beato, 1:06.0)
Last time out, Rockette Jet went to the lead, didn't get much pace pressure, and faded to finish seventh. This time, Inoel Beato tried a change of tactics, keeping her off the pace. It paid off, as she rallied three-wide and drew away to score, paying $48.60. Meanwhile, Twisted Kick, who had a brutally wide trip in her last race, set a clear early pace. She faded to finish third. Can't explain it.
Race 5 (Amizzen Grace, Arnaud Delacour-Daniel Centeno, 1:43.4)
There was more than a hour between the fourth and fifth races. I wasn't following the races early in the day, so I'm not "shore" what happened. If anyone out there knows, tell me.
Anyway, Amizzen Grace sat a great trip off leading Variety of Colors. She faded, and then Amizzen Grace had to hold off the challenge of Ansible to hold on. Ansible, by the way, checked fairly hard going around the far turn. You gotta figure that she had more than a neck's worth of trouble, meaning that she was the best in here. Keep that in mind for next time.
Race 6 (Parody, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:39.2)
Bea Wildcat, contrary to what I thought would happen, got a very clear lead down the backstretch. However, he wound up having nothing left by the far turn, and Parody strolled on by to win by five easy lengths. The last half of this race was run in a painfully slow :52.3.
Race 7 (Bluesville, Kathy O'Connell-Daniel Centeno, 1:35.4)
Daniel Centeno continues to be sharp with his grass mounts. Here, he made a three-wide move with his mount on the backstretch, then had her battle for the lead in the two-path throughout the stretch. She narrowly edged Forest Funds, who battled for the early lead two-wide, and sent her other rival into oblivion, along with Indian Chaser, who made a big four-wide move around the turn. Good races from all three finishers.
Race 8 (Chatt Hills, Jorge Navarro-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.4)
Once Guchi Gold scratched, the outcome of this one was a foregone conclusion. Chatt Hills dueled on the inside with Proud to be Wild, brushed her off, and won it easily.
Race 9 (Dedicated to Bob, Jorge Navarro-Carlos Olivero, :55.3)
The standard winning trip for Dedicated to Bob: he sat off the leader, then rolled by, then held off the challenges of closers Golden Story and Benny is a Jet. The other leader, Snowday, also held on pretty well, finishing third despite setting a :20.4 opening quarter mile.
Race 10 (Sunshine Sandy, David Lopez-Angel Serpa, 1:12.1)
Sunshine Sandy was bet down from a 10/1 morning line down to 7/2. Somebody must have known something, because she took the early lead, brushing off three rivals to do so, and won easily by six lengths at first asking.
That wraps up Friday's card. Saturday features the Eatontown Handicap, plus the return of Frank Mirahmadi. Don't miss it!
Thursday, June 25, 2015
June 26, 2015: Picks and Analysis
It's already the last weekend of June, meaning that we are rapidly approaching one of the biggest races of the season: the grade 1, $750,000 United Nations Stakes. It'll be July 5, at 1 3/8 miles on the grass, and will feature the return of last year's Breeders' Cup Turf winner, Main Sequence. There'll also be the Salvator Mile that day, plus a bunch of other good racing and fun activities that weekend.
Back to the present, however, there's ten races on this Friday card. Here's what I think of them:
Weather Forecast: 73*F, Cloudy
There's a chance of rain in the morning, but it should clear out before the races.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, 5 Furlongs
Betting against Todd Pletcher in a two-year-old maiden race is an exercise akin to playing with fire. Here, he sends out the 3, Privy Control. She's been working very well at Saratoga, turning in a four-furlong bullet in :48.3 two workouts ago.
Now, it's entirely possible that he doesn't have her at 100% going into this race, and he's using this race as a prep for maiden races at Saratoga. However, nobody else in the field is all that great, either. The lone horse in the field with experience, the 4, Runaway Train, worked dismally just a few days ago for this race. The 5, Liana Star, is working well, but trainer Joe Orseno is not good with first-time-starters. The only horse in here who has a good chance of beating Privy Control, in my opinion, is the 1, Un Po Di Vino. She's got the sharp Kelly Breen training her, plus has shown sharp form in the morning. Now, while I think Privy Control is the most likely winner, Un Po Di Vino cannot be disregarded. If you're playing the early pick 5, use both horses.
3- Privy Control (2/1)
1- Un Po Di Vino (9/5)
4- Runaway Train (4/1)
Race 2: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This is one of the best betting races of the season: just about everyone in the field has run a race that would win this one. Of course, three deserving horses are left out of the field because of rail settings, but that's another story.
Anyway, I spent a lot of time looking for a selection, but I eventually settled on the 7, Best Actor. In his last race, he earned a brisnet figure of 84, which is tied for second-best in the field among all last out numbers. In that last race, it was his first start off more than a three-month layoff. He didn't run badly, either, narrowly missing to a horse, Rico Suave, who had a long, easy lead. In the past, he's run figures up to a 97, which would easily win this race. However, even he improves a few points off an 84, he should win this race.
The 8, Short Shrift, owns the best last-out figure in the race, with an 88. He earned it the hard way, too, running on a fast pace in his first start off the layoff. There's not much pace in here, so may get a clear lead. He'll be dangerous if that happens.
The 6, Mythical Man, declined sharply in his last race, but was in tight and behind the horses the whole way around. With a clearer path, he should run better.
Grass:
7- Best Actor (3/1)
8- Short Shrift (5/1)
6- Mythical Man (8/1)
Dirt:
5- Treasury Devil
4- Seeya When I Seeya
10- Curve of Stones
Race 3: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The 7, Musket Mary, appears to be much the best here. She's won two straight races, earning figures of 83 in both of them. The only horse to come close to those figures are the 8, More Than Special, who was less-than-impressive in her last race, and the 5, Elmra, who is wildly inconsistent at best. It should be a cakewalk for Musket Mary. That would also mean her third straight win, an impressive accomplishment in of itself.
7- Musket Mary (7/5)
8- More Than Special (4/1)
2- Mononoke (8/1)
Race 4: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
A ton of early speed signed up for this race. In fact, pretty much everybody in the field is a one-dimensional front-runner. Because of this, I'll try a horse who hasn't shown speed: the 6, Skirt Stake. She was flat in her last start, but in a race like this, everyone else may just melt down, giving Skirt Stake the victory by default. Her figures are decent, having earned a peak of 66 in the past, and may improve in her second start off the layoff. At a price, she's worth a shot.
The 5, Ten Cent Hat, has a similar profile as Skirt Stake, but couldn't take advantage of a similar scenario in her last race. I'm not expecting much as such.
6- Skirt Skate (6/1)
5- Ten Cent Hat (5/1)
7- Feloya (10/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 3, Amizzen Grace. In her only grass start so far, she earned a figure of 86, the best number in the field. She closed well in that race, finishing only about 1/4 of a length behind the second-place finisher. Furthermore, that race was on a yielding grass surface. She may improve when moving to a firm course.
The 2, Ansible, is also interesting, cutting back in distance. Clement and Bravo on the grass is also a combination that must be respected. The 4, Biamonte, has run fast races in the past, but sports a less-than-attractive 0-8 lifetime mark.
Grass:
3- Amizzen Grace (7/2)
2- Ansible (5/1)
4- Biamonte (3/1)
Dirt:
12- Heart of Midway
3- Amizzen Grace
10- Curlish Figure
Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
A hard-knocking field of claimers begins the late pick 5 on this Friday. My top pick among these is the 3, Parody. While under the care of Jamie Ness, he was impressive on the claiming circuit at Laurel, earning figures in the high-80s to low-90s. When claimed away from Ness, he disappointed in two starts at Pimlico, with figures of 81 and 72. By themselves, those would merit a look in this field, but now Ness gets the horse back. With Ness once again training, Parody figures to return to that form he showed before. This would mean absolute domination of the field.
The 2, Bea Wildcat, took advantage of a very easy pace situation in his last start. With a lot of early speed and a rail post, he could do it again, but I wouldn't bet on it. The 5, Gintraker, was the recipient of a bad ride in his last race. Before that race, he earned competitive figures. The 4, Dubious Bachelor, has run well enough to finish in the money here, and is also taking a notable drop in class. That being said, if Parody runs back to his form over the winter, he'll be very tough to beat.
3- Parody (9/5)
5- Gintraker (8/1)
4- Dubious Bachelor (5/2)
Race 7: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
I lean toward the 1, Make Your Point. In her last race, she made a big four-wide rally to swoop by her rivals and win by three lengths, going away. Her figure in that race was a 77. Only one horse in the field has run better: her entrymate, the 1A, Northern Smile. However, Northern Smile is buried on the also-eligible list. Still, Make Your Point has form good enough to win this race on her own. Now, it's a wide-open race, and you'll have to use a lot of horses in the pick 4 and pick 5 to feel safe, but Make Your Point's the most likely winner.
The 4, Indian Chaser, has the most early speed, and has ridden that early speed to two gate-to-wire victories. It may happen again. The 7, Forest Funds, ran well in her first start off the layoff, and has the astute grass trainer Marcus Vitali.
Grass:
1- Make Your Point/1A- Northern Smile (3/1)
4- Indian Chaser (9/2)
7- Forest Funds (5/2)
Dirt:
4- Indian Chaser
5- Pleasure
2- Extreme Excess
Race 8: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This race looks like a good situation for an ice-cold exacta. The 3, Guchi Gold, has run an 86, 82, and 80 in her last three. The 1, Chatt Hills, has run an 83, 75, and 82 in her last three. In that last race, Chatt Hills ran big, dueling three-wide and holding off all her rivals. While I feel that Guchi Gold is the most likely winner in here, it's hard to see anyone except her and Chatt Hills winning this race.
3- Guchi Gold (3/1)
1- Chatt Hills (6/5)
5- Lady Liana (3/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
In his last race, the 6, Dedicated to Bob, ran way faster than he needed to. He sprinted out to an opening quarter of :20.3, the fastest opening quarter of the season. He still managed to finish second, only overtaken by the sharp grass sprinter Oak Bluffs. He earned a brisnet figure in that race of an 88, the best in the field. Assuming he manages to slow down the pace, he should win this one.
The 2, Drago's Best, has been running well at the n/w2x allowance level, and now takes a drop to the n/w1x level.
Grass:
6- Dedicated to Bob (3/1)
2- Drago's Best (3/1)
3- Golden Story (5/2)
Dirt:
14- Blings Express
12- City's Fast Lane
7- No Returns
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I will try to get out with the 10, Twist and Turn. Her two lifetime figures are 69 and 70, something that nobody else in the field has done without any consistency. She narrowly missed at this level last out, rallying wide, only to miss by just two lengths. Improvement off that effort would mean an easy victory.
The 8, Shore Points South, ran well in her debut, chasing a much-the-best winner while earning a figure of 62. She can definitely step up off that race. The 1, Laura Lucy, dueled for the lead last out and held on until the 1/8 pole; a clearer lead would be the path to a possible victory.
10- Twist and Turn (3/2)
8- Shore Points South (6/1)
1- Laura Lucy (5/1)
Back to the present, however, there's ten races on this Friday card. Here's what I think of them:
Weather Forecast: 73*F, Cloudy
There's a chance of rain in the morning, but it should clear out before the races.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, 5 Furlongs
Betting against Todd Pletcher in a two-year-old maiden race is an exercise akin to playing with fire. Here, he sends out the 3, Privy Control. She's been working very well at Saratoga, turning in a four-furlong bullet in :48.3 two workouts ago.
Now, it's entirely possible that he doesn't have her at 100% going into this race, and he's using this race as a prep for maiden races at Saratoga. However, nobody else in the field is all that great, either. The lone horse in the field with experience, the 4, Runaway Train, worked dismally just a few days ago for this race. The 5, Liana Star, is working well, but trainer Joe Orseno is not good with first-time-starters. The only horse in here who has a good chance of beating Privy Control, in my opinion, is the 1, Un Po Di Vino. She's got the sharp Kelly Breen training her, plus has shown sharp form in the morning. Now, while I think Privy Control is the most likely winner, Un Po Di Vino cannot be disregarded. If you're playing the early pick 5, use both horses.
3- Privy Control (2/1)
1- Un Po Di Vino (9/5)
4- Runaway Train (4/1)
Race 2: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This is one of the best betting races of the season: just about everyone in the field has run a race that would win this one. Of course, three deserving horses are left out of the field because of rail settings, but that's another story.
Anyway, I spent a lot of time looking for a selection, but I eventually settled on the 7, Best Actor. In his last race, he earned a brisnet figure of 84, which is tied for second-best in the field among all last out numbers. In that last race, it was his first start off more than a three-month layoff. He didn't run badly, either, narrowly missing to a horse, Rico Suave, who had a long, easy lead. In the past, he's run figures up to a 97, which would easily win this race. However, even he improves a few points off an 84, he should win this race.
The 8, Short Shrift, owns the best last-out figure in the race, with an 88. He earned it the hard way, too, running on a fast pace in his first start off the layoff. There's not much pace in here, so may get a clear lead. He'll be dangerous if that happens.
The 6, Mythical Man, declined sharply in his last race, but was in tight and behind the horses the whole way around. With a clearer path, he should run better.
Grass:
7- Best Actor (3/1)
8- Short Shrift (5/1)
6- Mythical Man (8/1)
Dirt:
5- Treasury Devil
4- Seeya When I Seeya
10- Curve of Stones
Race 3: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The 7, Musket Mary, appears to be much the best here. She's won two straight races, earning figures of 83 in both of them. The only horse to come close to those figures are the 8, More Than Special, who was less-than-impressive in her last race, and the 5, Elmra, who is wildly inconsistent at best. It should be a cakewalk for Musket Mary. That would also mean her third straight win, an impressive accomplishment in of itself.
7- Musket Mary (7/5)
8- More Than Special (4/1)
2- Mononoke (8/1)
Race 4: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
A ton of early speed signed up for this race. In fact, pretty much everybody in the field is a one-dimensional front-runner. Because of this, I'll try a horse who hasn't shown speed: the 6, Skirt Stake. She was flat in her last start, but in a race like this, everyone else may just melt down, giving Skirt Stake the victory by default. Her figures are decent, having earned a peak of 66 in the past, and may improve in her second start off the layoff. At a price, she's worth a shot.
The 5, Ten Cent Hat, has a similar profile as Skirt Stake, but couldn't take advantage of a similar scenario in her last race. I'm not expecting much as such.
6- Skirt Skate (6/1)
5- Ten Cent Hat (5/1)
7- Feloya (10/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 3, Amizzen Grace. In her only grass start so far, she earned a figure of 86, the best number in the field. She closed well in that race, finishing only about 1/4 of a length behind the second-place finisher. Furthermore, that race was on a yielding grass surface. She may improve when moving to a firm course.
The 2, Ansible, is also interesting, cutting back in distance. Clement and Bravo on the grass is also a combination that must be respected. The 4, Biamonte, has run fast races in the past, but sports a less-than-attractive 0-8 lifetime mark.
Grass:
3- Amizzen Grace (7/2)
2- Ansible (5/1)
4- Biamonte (3/1)
Dirt:
12- Heart of Midway
3- Amizzen Grace
10- Curlish Figure
Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
A hard-knocking field of claimers begins the late pick 5 on this Friday. My top pick among these is the 3, Parody. While under the care of Jamie Ness, he was impressive on the claiming circuit at Laurel, earning figures in the high-80s to low-90s. When claimed away from Ness, he disappointed in two starts at Pimlico, with figures of 81 and 72. By themselves, those would merit a look in this field, but now Ness gets the horse back. With Ness once again training, Parody figures to return to that form he showed before. This would mean absolute domination of the field.
The 2, Bea Wildcat, took advantage of a very easy pace situation in his last start. With a lot of early speed and a rail post, he could do it again, but I wouldn't bet on it. The 5, Gintraker, was the recipient of a bad ride in his last race. Before that race, he earned competitive figures. The 4, Dubious Bachelor, has run well enough to finish in the money here, and is also taking a notable drop in class. That being said, if Parody runs back to his form over the winter, he'll be very tough to beat.
3- Parody (9/5)
5- Gintraker (8/1)
4- Dubious Bachelor (5/2)
Race 7: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
I lean toward the 1, Make Your Point. In her last race, she made a big four-wide rally to swoop by her rivals and win by three lengths, going away. Her figure in that race was a 77. Only one horse in the field has run better: her entrymate, the 1A, Northern Smile. However, Northern Smile is buried on the also-eligible list. Still, Make Your Point has form good enough to win this race on her own. Now, it's a wide-open race, and you'll have to use a lot of horses in the pick 4 and pick 5 to feel safe, but Make Your Point's the most likely winner.
The 4, Indian Chaser, has the most early speed, and has ridden that early speed to two gate-to-wire victories. It may happen again. The 7, Forest Funds, ran well in her first start off the layoff, and has the astute grass trainer Marcus Vitali.
Grass:
1- Make Your Point/1A- Northern Smile (3/1)
4- Indian Chaser (9/2)
7- Forest Funds (5/2)
Dirt:
4- Indian Chaser
5- Pleasure
2- Extreme Excess
Race 8: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This race looks like a good situation for an ice-cold exacta. The 3, Guchi Gold, has run an 86, 82, and 80 in her last three. The 1, Chatt Hills, has run an 83, 75, and 82 in her last three. In that last race, Chatt Hills ran big, dueling three-wide and holding off all her rivals. While I feel that Guchi Gold is the most likely winner in here, it's hard to see anyone except her and Chatt Hills winning this race.
3- Guchi Gold (3/1)
1- Chatt Hills (6/5)
5- Lady Liana (3/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
In his last race, the 6, Dedicated to Bob, ran way faster than he needed to. He sprinted out to an opening quarter of :20.3, the fastest opening quarter of the season. He still managed to finish second, only overtaken by the sharp grass sprinter Oak Bluffs. He earned a brisnet figure in that race of an 88, the best in the field. Assuming he manages to slow down the pace, he should win this one.
The 2, Drago's Best, has been running well at the n/w2x allowance level, and now takes a drop to the n/w1x level.
Grass:
6- Dedicated to Bob (3/1)
2- Drago's Best (3/1)
3- Golden Story (5/2)
Dirt:
14- Blings Express
12- City's Fast Lane
7- No Returns
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I will try to get out with the 10, Twist and Turn. Her two lifetime figures are 69 and 70, something that nobody else in the field has done without any consistency. She narrowly missed at this level last out, rallying wide, only to miss by just two lengths. Improvement off that effort would mean an easy victory.
The 8, Shore Points South, ran well in her debut, chasing a much-the-best winner while earning a figure of 62. She can definitely step up off that race. The 1, Laura Lucy, dueled for the lead last out and held on until the 1/8 pole; a clearer lead would be the path to a possible victory.
10- Twist and Turn (3/2)
8- Shore Points South (6/1)
1- Laura Lucy (5/1)
Sunday, June 21, 2015
Monmouth Racing Recap: 6/21/15
The thunderstorms mercifully held off, the races stayed on the grass, and handle went past the $5,000,000 mark for the card. That's an increase from last year. What's more, we saw not one, but two potential stars race today. Exciting times lie ahead...
Race 1 (Sunny Ridge, Jason Servis-Nik Juarez, :52.2)
Mr. Smith tried to clear for the lead from the three post, faded after he got it, and gave way to a battle between Sunny Ridge and Ayyoh. Both were valiant, but Sunny Ridge got the edge on the inside by a neck. For first-time starters, both combatants were pretty wide--especially Ayyoh, who was in the four-path on the backstretch, and three-wide on the turn.
Race 2 (All Over Me, Mike Maker-Paco Lopez, 1:45.2)
All Over Me ran one of the best races by anyone all season. He went to the front and tried to set a leisurely early pace, only to be challenged by Boarding Pass from the outside. The two of them picked up the pace, going from a :25.0 opening quarter to a :48.3 half mile. Boarding Pass tired from his efforts, but All Over Me held on bravely, and fended off the fresh challenge of Hudson Miracle to win it. That is a horse to watch for next time.
Race 3 (Jojo's Gal, David Nunn-Javier Felix, 1:40.4)
Unlike last time, Jojo's Gal was able to get a clear lead early on. She dismissed the brief challenges of her incompetent rivals, and won it easily despite drifting out in the stretch. That's what happens when a horse gets a clear lead, and when nobody in the race has much ability.
Race 4 (Zloty, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:44.4)
Silverville looked good when she squeezed through an opening on the rail around the turn and got clear at the 1/8 pole. However, Zloty rallied three-wide around the turn, kept persevering in the stretch, and got up to score. Still, I don't know if she was even worth 5/1 odds. (shrug)
Race 5 (Forest Boy, David Jacobson-Joe Bravo, 1:10.4)
Distinctivelygreat and Strike Bold engaged in a cutthroat duel down the backstretch, setting the race up perfectly for stalkers Forest Boy and Duke of Luke. The latter two hit the wire together, with Forest Boy getting the edge. Jacobson gets out of his Monmouth losing streak with an $8.40 winner. Get them while you can, folks, because if he heats up again, there won't be many of those.
Race 6 (Beautiful Joe, Doug Nunn-Wilmer Garcia, 1:11.3)
At the 1/8 pole, it looked like it would be either Little Hitman or Walk Away Slow, as those two were the ones battling down the stretch. Instead, Beautiful Joe rallied from the back of the pack and got up to score at nearly 9/1 odds. He had good figures except for that last start, where he was wide the whole way going a route. I shouldn't have dismissed him as flippantly as I did. Live and learn...
Race 7 (Tell Tale Friend, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:10.0)
Three horses were scratched out of this one (all scratches listed as "trainer") bringing the field down to seven. I mean, mamma mia! There should never be three trainer scratches out of a race. At least, not without a penalty for the scratching parties.
As to the race itself, no one could run with Tell Tale Friend early on, and that was it.
Race 8 (Boot Scootn Daddy, Ben Perkins-Joe Bravo, 1:44.3)
This horse is the first out of the two future stars I mentioned. Boot Scootn Daddy, following a very impressive debut score, was sent off at 2/5. He made a big three-wide move for the lead around the first turn, and battled for the lead in the two-path down the backstretch. When he was asked, he took off around the turn, and won it as much the best. The final time of 1:44.3 was not mind-blowingly good, but it was the best time for 1 1/16 miles on the grass all day. It was also professionally done. This horse is going places, I tell you.
Also one to keep an eye on is the second-place finisher Gourmet Delight. He was wide the whole way around, but still finished a good second at 23/1.
Race 9 (Gombey Dancer, Bobby Dibona-Paco Lopez, 1:09.2)
A smart ride from Paco Lopez here, as he didn't try to challenge Delta Bluesman for the lead, but rather sat off the pace with him on the inside. Once Delta Bluesman stopped, Gombey Dancer rallied up the rail, and won the battle with Pomeroy's Package down the stretch to win it. Just Call Kenny was bet down to really low price, for some reason. He broke slowly, made a bold rally up the rail around the turn, and wound up fourth.
Race 10 (Saucy Don, Terri Pompay-Abel Castellano, 1:37.1)
Another scratch-riddled field lined up for the Dan Horn. Dan Horn, if anyone was wondering, was a Jersey-bred star who won several graded stakes races on the grass in the late 1970s. I doubt that he was scratched out of a big race for no good reason. Take heed, trainers of today. Be like Dan Horn.
As for the race, the wire came just in time for Saucy Don. He made his move around the turn and looked clear at the 1/8 pole, when Disco Rhythm started breathing down his neck. However, the finish came in the nick of time for Saucy Don. If that race is ten feet further, Disco Rhythm wins.
Race 11 (Mr. Jordan, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:42.3)
Mr. Jordan had question marks coming into this race--specifically, can he win outside of Florida? He proved that he can, rating off leader Tekton down the backstretch, then rallying down the stretch to get up. He only won by a head, but he could have won by much more if he hadn't drifted out in the stretch. Expect to see him with blinkers in his next start--will it be the Haskell?
Race 12 (Laghubaar, Patricia Farro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:47.2)
I still think anyone who played Laghubaar to win at 6/5 is insane, but they're crazy like a fox, because they got paid and I didn't. In fact, not only did Laghubaar win, he won as much the best. He was ridiculously wide the whole way, swooped five-wide around the turn, and rallied to win it. I can't believe it.
That concludes this racing week at Monmouth. We'll see you for a rundown of Friday's card later in the week.
Race 1 (Sunny Ridge, Jason Servis-Nik Juarez, :52.2)
Mr. Smith tried to clear for the lead from the three post, faded after he got it, and gave way to a battle between Sunny Ridge and Ayyoh. Both were valiant, but Sunny Ridge got the edge on the inside by a neck. For first-time starters, both combatants were pretty wide--especially Ayyoh, who was in the four-path on the backstretch, and three-wide on the turn.
Race 2 (All Over Me, Mike Maker-Paco Lopez, 1:45.2)
All Over Me ran one of the best races by anyone all season. He went to the front and tried to set a leisurely early pace, only to be challenged by Boarding Pass from the outside. The two of them picked up the pace, going from a :25.0 opening quarter to a :48.3 half mile. Boarding Pass tired from his efforts, but All Over Me held on bravely, and fended off the fresh challenge of Hudson Miracle to win it. That is a horse to watch for next time.
Race 3 (Jojo's Gal, David Nunn-Javier Felix, 1:40.4)
Unlike last time, Jojo's Gal was able to get a clear lead early on. She dismissed the brief challenges of her incompetent rivals, and won it easily despite drifting out in the stretch. That's what happens when a horse gets a clear lead, and when nobody in the race has much ability.
Race 4 (Zloty, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:44.4)
Silverville looked good when she squeezed through an opening on the rail around the turn and got clear at the 1/8 pole. However, Zloty rallied three-wide around the turn, kept persevering in the stretch, and got up to score. Still, I don't know if she was even worth 5/1 odds. (shrug)
Race 5 (Forest Boy, David Jacobson-Joe Bravo, 1:10.4)
Distinctivelygreat and Strike Bold engaged in a cutthroat duel down the backstretch, setting the race up perfectly for stalkers Forest Boy and Duke of Luke. The latter two hit the wire together, with Forest Boy getting the edge. Jacobson gets out of his Monmouth losing streak with an $8.40 winner. Get them while you can, folks, because if he heats up again, there won't be many of those.
Race 6 (Beautiful Joe, Doug Nunn-Wilmer Garcia, 1:11.3)
At the 1/8 pole, it looked like it would be either Little Hitman or Walk Away Slow, as those two were the ones battling down the stretch. Instead, Beautiful Joe rallied from the back of the pack and got up to score at nearly 9/1 odds. He had good figures except for that last start, where he was wide the whole way going a route. I shouldn't have dismissed him as flippantly as I did. Live and learn...
Race 7 (Tell Tale Friend, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:10.0)
Three horses were scratched out of this one (all scratches listed as "trainer") bringing the field down to seven. I mean, mamma mia! There should never be three trainer scratches out of a race. At least, not without a penalty for the scratching parties.
As to the race itself, no one could run with Tell Tale Friend early on, and that was it.
Race 8 (Boot Scootn Daddy, Ben Perkins-Joe Bravo, 1:44.3)
This horse is the first out of the two future stars I mentioned. Boot Scootn Daddy, following a very impressive debut score, was sent off at 2/5. He made a big three-wide move for the lead around the first turn, and battled for the lead in the two-path down the backstretch. When he was asked, he took off around the turn, and won it as much the best. The final time of 1:44.3 was not mind-blowingly good, but it was the best time for 1 1/16 miles on the grass all day. It was also professionally done. This horse is going places, I tell you.
Also one to keep an eye on is the second-place finisher Gourmet Delight. He was wide the whole way around, but still finished a good second at 23/1.
Race 9 (Gombey Dancer, Bobby Dibona-Paco Lopez, 1:09.2)
A smart ride from Paco Lopez here, as he didn't try to challenge Delta Bluesman for the lead, but rather sat off the pace with him on the inside. Once Delta Bluesman stopped, Gombey Dancer rallied up the rail, and won the battle with Pomeroy's Package down the stretch to win it. Just Call Kenny was bet down to really low price, for some reason. He broke slowly, made a bold rally up the rail around the turn, and wound up fourth.
Race 10 (Saucy Don, Terri Pompay-Abel Castellano, 1:37.1)
Another scratch-riddled field lined up for the Dan Horn. Dan Horn, if anyone was wondering, was a Jersey-bred star who won several graded stakes races on the grass in the late 1970s. I doubt that he was scratched out of a big race for no good reason. Take heed, trainers of today. Be like Dan Horn.
As for the race, the wire came just in time for Saucy Don. He made his move around the turn and looked clear at the 1/8 pole, when Disco Rhythm started breathing down his neck. However, the finish came in the nick of time for Saucy Don. If that race is ten feet further, Disco Rhythm wins.
Race 11 (Mr. Jordan, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:42.3)
Mr. Jordan had question marks coming into this race--specifically, can he win outside of Florida? He proved that he can, rating off leader Tekton down the backstretch, then rallying down the stretch to get up. He only won by a head, but he could have won by much more if he hadn't drifted out in the stretch. Expect to see him with blinkers in his next start--will it be the Haskell?
Race 12 (Laghubaar, Patricia Farro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:47.2)
I still think anyone who played Laghubaar to win at 6/5 is insane, but they're crazy like a fox, because they got paid and I didn't. In fact, not only did Laghubaar win, he won as much the best. He was ridiculously wide the whole way, swooped five-wide around the turn, and rallied to win it. I can't believe it.
That concludes this racing week at Monmouth. We'll see you for a rundown of Friday's card later in the week.
Monmouth Racing Recap: 6/20/15
Cloudy skies greeted the combatants on this Saturday at Monmouth. Here's what happened:
Race 1 (Candy Portena, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:11.4)
I asked in the pre-race analysis if this race was finally one that Candy Portena could win. And, lo and behold, it was! She rated off a battle for the lead in the two path, made her move in the stretch, and brushed off Key d'Oro to win it. Key d'Oro, by the way, was ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher, so it's obvious she was way better than everyone save a superior rival. Perhaps something to keep in mind for next time.
Race 2 (Prague, Joe Orseno-Elvis Trujillo, 1:10.2)
Gypsy Baron, for some reason, allowed Prague to set a ludicrously slow opening quarter of :22.3. For a race of this stature, and at a track like Monmouth, that's glacial. To the surprise of no one, Gypsy Baron couldn't get by, and Prague held on. If Prague has to deal with a pace that is the slightest bit honest next time, he'll be in trouble.
Moneyinyour Pocket, the Jacobson charge, was let go at 7/2, thanks to the giant red flags in his past performances. He was wide down the backstretch and finished sixth. I'm not surprised.
Race 3 (R Girl She Gone, Rene Araya-Elvis Trujillo, 1:05.4)
A similar race as race 2. The main difference, however, is that R Girl She Gone had to work for her lead somewhat, outrunning prospective dueler Classic Kate. No one else really tried for the lead, however, and R Girl She Gone won it easily. Trumpet Kaz, after winning at more than 60/1 a few weeks ago, was second here at 35/1.
Race 4 (Get Air Lex, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:04.2)
I said that if Get Air Lex runs back to her last race, she'll win for fun. Well, she must have run back to that race, because she won by almost seven lengths. Royal Stage made a big wide move on the turn, after running wide the whole way around, and finished third. Acqua Bella, dismissed at more than 50/1 in her debut here, went even wider, but made a strong middle move late to finish fourth. A longshot possibility next out? We'll see.
Race 5 (Shogun Samurai, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:10.1)
Thepartyneverends was probably using this race as a springboard to stakes competition. Instead, she was pressured the whole way around on the lead, and had nothing left when her rivals struck at the quarter pole. She was disappointing third, while Shogun Samurai swooped three-wide and picked up the pieces at 11/1. That's three on the day for Paco Lopez.
Race 6 (Imperial Cut, Larry Getto-Jose Ferrer, 1:46.1)
Bettors, for some reason, made Reason 6/5. She checked at the start of the race, and sharply on the turn, and faded to be 7th. Imperial Cut, meanwhile, made a big three-wide move on the turn and drew off to overtake Fiesty Valentina, who looked like a "shore" winner at the 1/8 pole.
Race 7 (Lady Vivien, Kieron Magee-Nik Juarez, 1:11.2)
Lady Vivien sat the trip. She rated two-wide, rallied two-wide around the turn, and won by a comfortable two lengths. My Cousin Fay and Dirty Blonde engaged in a nice battle for second, with the former prevailing by a length.
Race 8 (Golden Wheels, Claudio Gonzalez-Wilmer Garcia, 1:44.2)
Another case of easy lead = automatic win. Golden Wheels cleared to the lead from post 8, was barely challenged, and drew off to an easy five-length score. That's what you get, though, when you don't give a horse pace pressure.
Race 9 (Wildly Good Lookin, Derek Ryan-Abel Castellano, 1:44.1)
See race 8 description, only substitute "Wildly Good Lookin", and "eight length win".
Race 10 (Babe's Ruler, Joan Scott-Elvis Trujillo, 1:37.2)
A great trip for Babe's Ruler, who slid down to the rail and stalked the pace. She then angled into the three-path into the stretch, rolled by, and won it solidly. Quarla rallied wide as well, and got up to finish in second.
Race 11 (Keep Crossing, Larry Jones-Gabriel Saez, 1:10.0)
Here in the Red Cross Stakes, Disco Chick set an insanely fast pace for herself, going the opening quarter in :21.3 and the half in :43.4. This set up perfectly for Keep Crossing, who rallied wide around the turn and swooped by to win. More Than a Party was bet down to the unnaturally low 1/1 price, rated behind the leader, and had nothing to give around the turn. She wound up finishing last.
Race 12 (Naughty Delite, Manny Berrios-Orlando Bocachica, 1:12.2)
Naughty Delite finally breaks through, in his eighteenth career attempt. He sat off a very fast pace, rallied wide into the stretch, and with that ended his losing streak.
Race 1 (Candy Portena, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:11.4)
I asked in the pre-race analysis if this race was finally one that Candy Portena could win. And, lo and behold, it was! She rated off a battle for the lead in the two path, made her move in the stretch, and brushed off Key d'Oro to win it. Key d'Oro, by the way, was ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher, so it's obvious she was way better than everyone save a superior rival. Perhaps something to keep in mind for next time.
Race 2 (Prague, Joe Orseno-Elvis Trujillo, 1:10.2)
Gypsy Baron, for some reason, allowed Prague to set a ludicrously slow opening quarter of :22.3. For a race of this stature, and at a track like Monmouth, that's glacial. To the surprise of no one, Gypsy Baron couldn't get by, and Prague held on. If Prague has to deal with a pace that is the slightest bit honest next time, he'll be in trouble.
Moneyinyour Pocket, the Jacobson charge, was let go at 7/2, thanks to the giant red flags in his past performances. He was wide down the backstretch and finished sixth. I'm not surprised.
Race 3 (R Girl She Gone, Rene Araya-Elvis Trujillo, 1:05.4)
A similar race as race 2. The main difference, however, is that R Girl She Gone had to work for her lead somewhat, outrunning prospective dueler Classic Kate. No one else really tried for the lead, however, and R Girl She Gone won it easily. Trumpet Kaz, after winning at more than 60/1 a few weeks ago, was second here at 35/1.
Race 4 (Get Air Lex, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:04.2)
I said that if Get Air Lex runs back to her last race, she'll win for fun. Well, she must have run back to that race, because she won by almost seven lengths. Royal Stage made a big wide move on the turn, after running wide the whole way around, and finished third. Acqua Bella, dismissed at more than 50/1 in her debut here, went even wider, but made a strong middle move late to finish fourth. A longshot possibility next out? We'll see.
Race 5 (Shogun Samurai, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:10.1)
Thepartyneverends was probably using this race as a springboard to stakes competition. Instead, she was pressured the whole way around on the lead, and had nothing left when her rivals struck at the quarter pole. She was disappointing third, while Shogun Samurai swooped three-wide and picked up the pieces at 11/1. That's three on the day for Paco Lopez.
Race 6 (Imperial Cut, Larry Getto-Jose Ferrer, 1:46.1)
Bettors, for some reason, made Reason 6/5. She checked at the start of the race, and sharply on the turn, and faded to be 7th. Imperial Cut, meanwhile, made a big three-wide move on the turn and drew off to overtake Fiesty Valentina, who looked like a "shore" winner at the 1/8 pole.
Race 7 (Lady Vivien, Kieron Magee-Nik Juarez, 1:11.2)
Lady Vivien sat the trip. She rated two-wide, rallied two-wide around the turn, and won by a comfortable two lengths. My Cousin Fay and Dirty Blonde engaged in a nice battle for second, with the former prevailing by a length.
Race 8 (Golden Wheels, Claudio Gonzalez-Wilmer Garcia, 1:44.2)
Another case of easy lead = automatic win. Golden Wheels cleared to the lead from post 8, was barely challenged, and drew off to an easy five-length score. That's what you get, though, when you don't give a horse pace pressure.
Race 9 (Wildly Good Lookin, Derek Ryan-Abel Castellano, 1:44.1)
See race 8 description, only substitute "Wildly Good Lookin", and "eight length win".
Race 10 (Babe's Ruler, Joan Scott-Elvis Trujillo, 1:37.2)
A great trip for Babe's Ruler, who slid down to the rail and stalked the pace. She then angled into the three-path into the stretch, rolled by, and won it solidly. Quarla rallied wide as well, and got up to finish in second.
Race 11 (Keep Crossing, Larry Jones-Gabriel Saez, 1:10.0)
Here in the Red Cross Stakes, Disco Chick set an insanely fast pace for herself, going the opening quarter in :21.3 and the half in :43.4. This set up perfectly for Keep Crossing, who rallied wide around the turn and swooped by to win. More Than a Party was bet down to the unnaturally low 1/1 price, rated behind the leader, and had nothing to give around the turn. She wound up finishing last.
Race 12 (Naughty Delite, Manny Berrios-Orlando Bocachica, 1:12.2)
Naughty Delite finally breaks through, in his eighteenth career attempt. He sat off a very fast pace, rallied wide into the stretch, and with that ended his losing streak.
Saturday, June 20, 2015
June 21, 2015: Picks and Analysis
It's both Father's Day and Pegasus day here at Monmouth Park, and with rain in the forecast, it looks like it will be a wet one. Hopefully the forecast changes, but for now I will make picks for both dirt and grass when appropriate.
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, 4 1/2 Furlongs
He may have a ridiculous name, but the 6, Ayyoh, is my top selection in the opener. Trainer Cathal Lynch is sneaky good with first-time starters, hitting at 28% with those horses. He's also working well for this race, and at a 7/2 morning line, he's worth a shot.
The 4, Mr. Smith, has the training of Eddie Plesa, who has scored with a 2-year-old maiden this season, and is also working well. The 7, Scoff, was scratched out of a race against fillies to run against the males, and has the best figures of all three of the horses with experience.
6- Ayyoh (7/2)
4- Mr. Smith (3/1)
7- Scoff (2/1)
Race 2: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The worst part about the possibility of it raining Sunday is that the rail will be at 0 feet on the grass, enabling 12-horse fields there. If these races are off-the-grass, then that's kind of rendered moot. Is it possible to do a reverse rain-dance, which would ensure sunny skies?
Anyway, if this race stays on the grass, I'll take the 2, All Over Me. In his last race, he was wide the whole way, before being blocked in the stretch. He still got up to win it by a neck. He earned a brisnet figure of 74 in this race: not great, but it was his first start since December. With that race under his belt, I sense improvement.
If we are washed away, I'll take the 14, Paddington Express. He was not great in his last start, but his dirt figures are way better than anyone else's in the field. That makes sense, of course, considering he's a dirt horse.
Grass:
2- All Over Me (5/2)
5- Hudson Miracle (3/1)
3- Greek God (6/1)
Dirt:
14- Paddington Express
6- Market Title
5- Hudson Miracle
Race 3: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
There's not many good things to say about the plugs in this one, outside of (persumably) they're alive and well. I mean, the heavy morning line favorite is the 4, Confrontational, who beat an abysmal maiden claiming field in her last start. Even so, her figure of 67 is the best last-out number in the field, and nobody else in the field has shown much in the way of form. However, she'll be a low price, so I wouldn't advise betting her--or anyone--in this race.
4- Confrontational (4/5)
2- Jojo's Gal (6/1)
1- Trapise in Utopia (9/2)
Race 4: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
My grass selection is the 3, Silverville. In her last race at Pimlico, she earned a best last-out figure of 87, while rallying from the back of the pack. She missed by just a nose, after being as far back as 10 lengths in that one. Jevian Toledo comes up for the ride, and she should be a good price at 4/1 odds.
On dirt, I'll go with the 6, California Thirty Seven, who has been turning in decent dirt races at Belmont and Aqueduct.
Grass:
3- Silverville (4/1)
8- Quiet Kitten (10/1)
12- Subpoena (12/1)
Dirt:
6- California Thirty Seven
10- Indygita
14- Sweet Henrietta
Race 5: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's a good race, as far as n/w2 claiming races go. I'll go with the 2, Distinctivelygreat, in this race. This winter at Tampa, he won his first two dirt races, earning an 86 figure in each. Furthermore, as a three-year-old, entered for the open condition, as opposed to the n/w2 condition, he holds a major class edge over the rest of his rivals. Consider yourself lucky if you get his 3/1 morning line at post time, but he's the most likely winner.
Also of note is the 5, Strike Bold, who broke his maiden here at Monmouth last year, and ran decent numbers at Gulfstream this winter. The 1, El Guero Guantero, makes his third start off the layoff, and ran creditably in his last start here at Monmouth.
2- Distinctivelygreat (3/1)
5- Strike Bold (3/1)
1- El Guero Guantero (8/1)
Race 6: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
The two fastest horses in the field when it comes to figures are both coming off long layoffs. That would be the 1, Walk Away Slow, who hasn't raced since February, and the 2, Chubble Maker, who hasn't run since last year. Walk Away Slow has a slight edge in figures, with an 87 and an 86 among his last three. He's coming off a shorter layoff, too, and has run better figures in the past. I don't know if he's worth a 2/1 morning line, but he's the most probable winner.
The 9, Little Hitman, is also worth a look. He's run strong races lately, has recent form, and makes his third start off the layoff.
1- Walk Away Slow (2/1)
9- Little Hitman (5/2)
2- Chubble Maker (3/1)
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The Sunday Jersey Shore 6 begins with this sprinting allowance bunch. I wound up going with the 3, Tell Tale Friend. He led almost the whole way around last out, only to get nabbed near the wire late. Even so, he earned a figure of 98 in that race, tied for the best last-out figure in the race. He's also trained by Jorge Navarro and Orlando Bocachica, has the mount, which automatically gives him an edge. He looks to be the most likely winner.
The 4, Proven Warrior, also ran a big race last out, but it was achieved with a very easy lead in a race where he was much the best. He'll have things tougher today. The 6, Songa, was claimed by David Jacobson in his last race, and had good form to back that claim up. He's dangerous.
3- Tell Tale Friend (3/1)
6- Songa (9/2)
4- Proven Warrior (5/1)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
I have been looking forward so much to Boot Scootin' Daddy's next race, to the point where I can tell you where he will be pointed to if this race is washed away (for the record, it would be a n/w1x allowance on July 5). He was dazzingly impressive in his debut, winning by eight decisive lengths while earning a figure of 92. That blows away anyone else in the field. This horse is a future star, and I am eagerly looking forward to seeing him run next.
If we're on the dirt, I'll go with the 12, Gourmet Delight. He ran decent figures on the dirt last year here at Monmouth, and will make his second start off the layoff, too. Expect some decent value on him.
Grass:
11- Boot Scootin Daddy (3/1)
2- Irish Strait (9/2)
1- Monopolist (5/1)
Dirt:
12- Gourmet Delight
1A- Village Warrior
2X- Fake Dreams
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race begins the late pick 4, and I'll begin the sequence with the 4, Pomeroy's Package. He was solid in his first race off the layoff last out, finishing second at this level. His figures look to be the best, and at a 4/1 morning line, he should be an appealing price.
The 3, Just Call Kenny, also has good figures, but he was a less-than-terrific fifth in that race. Regardless, he has the right to improve off of that race. The 9, Gombey Dancer, demolished a field of n/w3 claimers in his last race, and he hopes to handle the class jump here.
4- Pomeroy's Package (4/1)
3- Just Call Kenny (5/2)
9- Gombey Dancer (5/1)
Race 10: Dan Horn Handicap, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 1 Mile (Grass)
Some of the best Jersey-breds in the land line up for this race. In my opinion, this race should be on the dirt in the first place, considering most of these horses are dirt-based.
Anyway, my grass pick is the 4, Oak Bluffs. His last grass race was impressive, winning by two lengths versus allowance company. Before that, he had won at 7 1/2 furlongs, and come close at a mile, proving his ability at a route. Now, he's stretching out against largely unproven grass horses. Assuming none of the others step up, he should win this one.
On dirt, my pick would be the 10, Amblin Easy. She ran an OK third in the Monmouth Beach Stakes, but ran well in a Parx route before that.
Grass:
4- Oak Bluffs (3/1)
12- Disco Rhythm (8/1)
9- Saucy Don (5/1)
Dirt:
10- Amblin Easy
7- Javerre
6- Crafty Concorde
Race 11: Pegasus Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles
A solid bunch of three-year-olds will lineup to contest this Haskell prep. The likely favorite is the 6, Mr. Jordan, coming off four wins in five career starts. He's also making his first ever start outside of Florida in this race. However, I'm not sold on him. His two figures this year are a 91 and an 89. They're OK, but they don't blow me away. His last start wasn't that great, either, as he just held on to win an overnight stakes as a 1/5 shot. Not to mention, he's making just his second career start around two turns. I mean, he might win, and he definitely can, but at low odds, I look elsewhere.
Instead, I'll take a bit of a longshot here: the 2, Bodhisattva. If you toss his Preakness, where he was soundly beaten, his figures are among the best in the field: 96 and 95 in his last two. He's proven over a route of ground this year, having won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico back in April. He was scratched out of the Ohio Derby yesterday to run in here, and I think this will be the better spot for him. I'll bet him, and see if I can get a good price on him.
2- Bodhisattva (8/1)
6- Mr. Jordan (5/2)
7- Chipit (3/1)
Race 12: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
The 11, Laghubaar, may be the fastest in the field, but he was just claimed for $25,000, and now is in for $5,000. What does that say about him? Bad things, that's what.
I'll go with the 8, Bo Badger, instead. He's been running well at the $5,000 level all year, with his lone truly bad race coming when he was placed in n/w1x allowance company. Now, he's back down to his comfort zone, his figures are competitive, and I'll take him to score at a bit of a price.
The 4, Airdrop, ran well in Pennsylvania last year, and his making his first start following a spill last July. He's fast enough to win it if he returns to that form, but he may need a race yet.
8- Bo Badger (5/1)
4- Airdrop (6/1)
11- Laghubaar (3/2)
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, 4 1/2 Furlongs
He may have a ridiculous name, but the 6, Ayyoh, is my top selection in the opener. Trainer Cathal Lynch is sneaky good with first-time starters, hitting at 28% with those horses. He's also working well for this race, and at a 7/2 morning line, he's worth a shot.
The 4, Mr. Smith, has the training of Eddie Plesa, who has scored with a 2-year-old maiden this season, and is also working well. The 7, Scoff, was scratched out of a race against fillies to run against the males, and has the best figures of all three of the horses with experience.
6- Ayyoh (7/2)
4- Mr. Smith (3/1)
7- Scoff (2/1)
Race 2: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The worst part about the possibility of it raining Sunday is that the rail will be at 0 feet on the grass, enabling 12-horse fields there. If these races are off-the-grass, then that's kind of rendered moot. Is it possible to do a reverse rain-dance, which would ensure sunny skies?
Anyway, if this race stays on the grass, I'll take the 2, All Over Me. In his last race, he was wide the whole way, before being blocked in the stretch. He still got up to win it by a neck. He earned a brisnet figure of 74 in this race: not great, but it was his first start since December. With that race under his belt, I sense improvement.
If we are washed away, I'll take the 14, Paddington Express. He was not great in his last start, but his dirt figures are way better than anyone else's in the field. That makes sense, of course, considering he's a dirt horse.
Grass:
2- All Over Me (5/2)
5- Hudson Miracle (3/1)
3- Greek God (6/1)
Dirt:
14- Paddington Express
6- Market Title
5- Hudson Miracle
Race 3: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
There's not many good things to say about the plugs in this one, outside of (persumably) they're alive and well. I mean, the heavy morning line favorite is the 4, Confrontational, who beat an abysmal maiden claiming field in her last start. Even so, her figure of 67 is the best last-out number in the field, and nobody else in the field has shown much in the way of form. However, she'll be a low price, so I wouldn't advise betting her--or anyone--in this race.
4- Confrontational (4/5)
2- Jojo's Gal (6/1)
1- Trapise in Utopia (9/2)
Race 4: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
My grass selection is the 3, Silverville. In her last race at Pimlico, she earned a best last-out figure of 87, while rallying from the back of the pack. She missed by just a nose, after being as far back as 10 lengths in that one. Jevian Toledo comes up for the ride, and she should be a good price at 4/1 odds.
On dirt, I'll go with the 6, California Thirty Seven, who has been turning in decent dirt races at Belmont and Aqueduct.
Grass:
3- Silverville (4/1)
8- Quiet Kitten (10/1)
12- Subpoena (12/1)
Dirt:
6- California Thirty Seven
10- Indygita
14- Sweet Henrietta
Race 5: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's a good race, as far as n/w2 claiming races go. I'll go with the 2, Distinctivelygreat, in this race. This winter at Tampa, he won his first two dirt races, earning an 86 figure in each. Furthermore, as a three-year-old, entered for the open condition, as opposed to the n/w2 condition, he holds a major class edge over the rest of his rivals. Consider yourself lucky if you get his 3/1 morning line at post time, but he's the most likely winner.
Also of note is the 5, Strike Bold, who broke his maiden here at Monmouth last year, and ran decent numbers at Gulfstream this winter. The 1, El Guero Guantero, makes his third start off the layoff, and ran creditably in his last start here at Monmouth.
2- Distinctivelygreat (3/1)
5- Strike Bold (3/1)
1- El Guero Guantero (8/1)
Race 6: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
The two fastest horses in the field when it comes to figures are both coming off long layoffs. That would be the 1, Walk Away Slow, who hasn't raced since February, and the 2, Chubble Maker, who hasn't run since last year. Walk Away Slow has a slight edge in figures, with an 87 and an 86 among his last three. He's coming off a shorter layoff, too, and has run better figures in the past. I don't know if he's worth a 2/1 morning line, but he's the most probable winner.
The 9, Little Hitman, is also worth a look. He's run strong races lately, has recent form, and makes his third start off the layoff.
1- Walk Away Slow (2/1)
9- Little Hitman (5/2)
2- Chubble Maker (3/1)
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The Sunday Jersey Shore 6 begins with this sprinting allowance bunch. I wound up going with the 3, Tell Tale Friend. He led almost the whole way around last out, only to get nabbed near the wire late. Even so, he earned a figure of 98 in that race, tied for the best last-out figure in the race. He's also trained by Jorge Navarro and Orlando Bocachica, has the mount, which automatically gives him an edge. He looks to be the most likely winner.
The 4, Proven Warrior, also ran a big race last out, but it was achieved with a very easy lead in a race where he was much the best. He'll have things tougher today. The 6, Songa, was claimed by David Jacobson in his last race, and had good form to back that claim up. He's dangerous.
3- Tell Tale Friend (3/1)
6- Songa (9/2)
4- Proven Warrior (5/1)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
I have been looking forward so much to Boot Scootin' Daddy's next race, to the point where I can tell you where he will be pointed to if this race is washed away (for the record, it would be a n/w1x allowance on July 5). He was dazzingly impressive in his debut, winning by eight decisive lengths while earning a figure of 92. That blows away anyone else in the field. This horse is a future star, and I am eagerly looking forward to seeing him run next.
If we're on the dirt, I'll go with the 12, Gourmet Delight. He ran decent figures on the dirt last year here at Monmouth, and will make his second start off the layoff, too. Expect some decent value on him.
Grass:
11- Boot Scootin Daddy (3/1)
2- Irish Strait (9/2)
1- Monopolist (5/1)
Dirt:
12- Gourmet Delight
1A- Village Warrior
2X- Fake Dreams
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race begins the late pick 4, and I'll begin the sequence with the 4, Pomeroy's Package. He was solid in his first race off the layoff last out, finishing second at this level. His figures look to be the best, and at a 4/1 morning line, he should be an appealing price.
The 3, Just Call Kenny, also has good figures, but he was a less-than-terrific fifth in that race. Regardless, he has the right to improve off of that race. The 9, Gombey Dancer, demolished a field of n/w3 claimers in his last race, and he hopes to handle the class jump here.
4- Pomeroy's Package (4/1)
3- Just Call Kenny (5/2)
9- Gombey Dancer (5/1)
Race 10: Dan Horn Handicap, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 1 Mile (Grass)
Some of the best Jersey-breds in the land line up for this race. In my opinion, this race should be on the dirt in the first place, considering most of these horses are dirt-based.
Anyway, my grass pick is the 4, Oak Bluffs. His last grass race was impressive, winning by two lengths versus allowance company. Before that, he had won at 7 1/2 furlongs, and come close at a mile, proving his ability at a route. Now, he's stretching out against largely unproven grass horses. Assuming none of the others step up, he should win this one.
On dirt, my pick would be the 10, Amblin Easy. She ran an OK third in the Monmouth Beach Stakes, but ran well in a Parx route before that.
Grass:
4- Oak Bluffs (3/1)
12- Disco Rhythm (8/1)
9- Saucy Don (5/1)
Dirt:
10- Amblin Easy
7- Javerre
6- Crafty Concorde
Race 11: Pegasus Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles
A solid bunch of three-year-olds will lineup to contest this Haskell prep. The likely favorite is the 6, Mr. Jordan, coming off four wins in five career starts. He's also making his first ever start outside of Florida in this race. However, I'm not sold on him. His two figures this year are a 91 and an 89. They're OK, but they don't blow me away. His last start wasn't that great, either, as he just held on to win an overnight stakes as a 1/5 shot. Not to mention, he's making just his second career start around two turns. I mean, he might win, and he definitely can, but at low odds, I look elsewhere.
Instead, I'll take a bit of a longshot here: the 2, Bodhisattva. If you toss his Preakness, where he was soundly beaten, his figures are among the best in the field: 96 and 95 in his last two. He's proven over a route of ground this year, having won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico back in April. He was scratched out of the Ohio Derby yesterday to run in here, and I think this will be the better spot for him. I'll bet him, and see if I can get a good price on him.
2- Bodhisattva (8/1)
6- Mr. Jordan (5/2)
7- Chipit (3/1)
Race 12: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
The 11, Laghubaar, may be the fastest in the field, but he was just claimed for $25,000, and now is in for $5,000. What does that say about him? Bad things, that's what.
I'll go with the 8, Bo Badger, instead. He's been running well at the $5,000 level all year, with his lone truly bad race coming when he was placed in n/w1x allowance company. Now, he's back down to his comfort zone, his figures are competitive, and I'll take him to score at a bit of a price.
The 4, Airdrop, ran well in Pennsylvania last year, and his making his first start following a spill last July. He's fast enough to win it if he returns to that form, but he may need a race yet.
8- Bo Badger (5/1)
4- Airdrop (6/1)
11- Laghubaar (3/2)
Friday, June 19, 2015
June 20, 2015: Picks and Analysis
There's twelve races scheduled for the Saturday program, headlined by the $70,000 Red Cross Stakes. There's also a carryover in the early pick 5, of $15,272. Let's get started.
Weather Forecast: 73*F, Chance of Showers
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Has the 6, Candy Portena, finally found a race that she can win? It looks like it. Her last three brisnet figures are 73, 75, and 75, which no one else in the field can touch. Her record is 0-19 lifetime, with four seconds and five thirds. However, the majority of those races were against maiden special weight company, where she was facing much better. Now, she drops down to the maiden claiming level, where nobody else is close to her. She also moves into the dangerous barn of Kelly Breen, who hits at 28% when training a horse for the first time. Overall, Candy Portena will be hard to beat here.
Horses to consider using underneath her include the 2, Action Tonight, who showed a lot of early speed at this level last out. She stopped to finish second there, but may continue to improve in her fifth career start. The 3, Key d'Oro, is the only other member of the field to run figures in the 70s.
6- Candy Portena (8/5)
3- Key d'Oro (9/5)
2- Action Tonight (6/1)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
On the surface, the 7, Moneyinyour Pocket, looks like a contender. He's run competitive figures, and he's trained by David Jacobson and ridden by Andre Worrie. He looks like a "shore" thing, right?
Wrong. There's a big red flag with this horse's form. This is a horse who had been running for $62,500 tags in allowance/optional claiming races all winter, and had been in stakes last year. On April 4, he was claimed for $40,000 by Jacobson, who entered him at that level next out. He was dull there, and now is being dropped for $12,500. Why would a trainer who just bought a horse for $40,000 want to dump him for not even half that amount ten weeks later? Furthermore, this is a route horse, who finished a credible second at 1 1/4 miles last year, now he's in at 6 furlongs. Everyone else may make him the favorite, but I'm more interested just to see if he makes it all the way around the track.
With the likely favorite tossed from the analysis, all of a sudden, this is a competitive betting race. I'll go with the 5, Gypsy Baron. He ran well at 6 furlongs last out, hanging in until the end to run a respectable third. He turned in a great work on June 13 in preparation for this one, and his figures are among the best in the field. He's my choice to round out the double.
The 4, How Convienent, is also dangerous. He's been running ascending figures at Delaware, plus is trained by the red-hot Jamie Ness.
5- Gypsy Baron (4/1)
4- How Convienent (7/2)
6- Lucky Rascal (3/1)
Race 3: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Among the twelve entered in this race, only two have run a figure above 70 in recent times. My pick will be one of them: the 1, So Frank. Her last two figures, of 74 and 71, are the two best in the field. She didn't run badly at this level last out, rallying up the inside to score second. She's making her third start off the layoff here, has the inside draw, and looks to be the best in the race.
The other horse to eclipse the 70 barrier is the 8, Cafe Au Lait, who ships in from Parx. She'll be ridden by the hot Orlando Bocachica, and is definitely worth a look. The 10, Rocket Dee, broke through the gate before her last start, a forgivable excuse for her dull last-out performance. Before then, her figures were competitive. Watch for her.
1- So Frank (5/2)
8- Cafe Au Lait (9/2)
10- Rocket Dee (8/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
Check out the names of the 2 and the 2X in here: Thinking of Dad and Thinking of Mom. Well played, Richard Schibell. Well played.
Anyway, beyond those two, it's a tough field, with a lot of first-time starters. I wound up settling with the 4, Get Air Lex. She ran a big race in her first start of 2015, missing by only 2 1/2 lengths, while earning a figure of 84. That's something nobody else in the field has come close to matching in recent times. As long as she runs back close to this figure, she'll win laughing.
Of the aforementioned coupled entry, Thinking of Mom has the better form, having run well in maiden races at Belmont last year. However, she'll have to draw off a long also-eligible list to get into this race.
4- Get Air Lex (5/2)
1- Lost Sonnet/1A- Sharon Jones (9/2)
2- Thinking of Dad/2X- Thinking of Mom (8/1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll take the 3, Thepartyneverends. She broke her maiden in impressive fashion last out here at Monmouth, drawing off to win by 4 1/2 lengths while earning a figure of 99. That's the best in the field by a lot. I expect a similar effort to last time--although even a decline by a few points would likely mean victory--and a promising career for this filly.
Also of note is the 2, Saturday Storms, who has been either first or second in all of her last five dirt starts. The 6, Hazel Eyed Girl, ran well while racing wide in her first start off the layoff in her last race.
3- Thepartyneverends (7/5)
2- Saturday Storms (7/2)
6- Hazel Eyed Girl (5/1_
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This is not an easy race to handicap. Indeed, it's hard to find many positive things to say about anyone in the field. Because of that, I'll land on the 6, Reason, who didn't run terribly last time out. Yes, she was sixth, beaten by nine lengths, but was only a half-length off of the third-place finisher. That third-place finisher, Discreet Concorde, came back to win her next start. Her figure of 68 is the second-best among last-out numbers, and she's got the Todd Pletcher-Paco Lopez combination. She's a strong contender, but may be overbet. If she's too low of a price (anything less than her morning line), don't bet her to win, but use her in multi-race bets regardless.
Also of note is the 9, Fiery Valentina, who ran well in her debut at Belmont Park. The 2, Tricky Game, has the dangerous Vitali-Bocachica combination, but hasn't raced on the grass in almost two years. The 5, Imperial Cut, has earned figures a slight cut below Reason, but is making her second start off the layoff. She may have room to improve.
6- Reason (2/1)
9- Fiery Valentina (5/2)
5- Imperial Cut (6/1)
Race 7: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
My pick is the 4, Dirty Blonde. She ran well at the $5,000 level in her last start, rallying three-wide in the stretch to get up over favored Idontknowgoaskanni. That horse came back to win her next start, vaildating Dirty Blonde's form. Her figure of 79 is the best last-out race in the field, and it was earned off a four-month layoff. She's likely to improve with a recent race, and had a great workout in preparation for this spot on June 13 to boot.
The 8, Casual Elegance, has good sprinting form, but neither Elvis Trujillo nor David Jacobson have been great shakes lately, yet their very presence en"shores" she'll be overbet. Buyer beware for anyone playing her to win. The 1, My Cousin Fay, ran a big race at Tampa last out, but her form is inconsistent.
4- Dirty Blonde (3/1)
1- My Cousin Fay (3/1)
8- Casual Elegance (7/2)
Race 8: Starter Optional Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The late pick 5 begins with a single, in the 1, Precious Metal. Without figures, his last race would look less-than-impressive, as he finished last. However, in that race, he earned a figure of 92, which towers over the rest of the field. As a matter of fact, his previous two grass starts registered an 86 and an 89, something that nobody else in the field does consistently. I'll take the idea that it's his first start off a layoff, and he may need a race. However, even if he declines a little bit, he should still win it. At a 6/1 morning line, his odds should be tantalizing.
1- Precious Metal (6/1)
3- Saturday Special (9/5)
8- Pulpit's Express (5/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I'll go with the 2, Rmilliondollarbaby, who switches from grass to dirt in this one. In her two recent dirt starts, she earned figures of 86 and 77, the best in the field. That form includes a win over the dirt. She's stepping up into allowance company from the claiming level, and trainer Allen Iwinski is a solid 20% with that angle. She'll be my choice to kick off the late pick 4.
The 3, Groovy Dancer, has been running well at Parx, and is a candidate for the exotic spots. The 7, Goldiebuxx, stretches out from a sprint to a route, and makes her second start off the layoff. Her figures indicate she has a good shot.
2- Rmilliondollarbaby (4/1)
3- Groovy Dancer (9/2)
7- Goldiebuxx (7/2)
Race 10: Claiming $35,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
My pick here is the 2, Midnight Bounty. Making her grass debut in her last start, she was three-wide down the backstretch, and had to rally four-wide into the stretch. She only missed by half a length, earning a figure of 85. With a more ground-saving trip, she should win this one easily, and hopefully improve her figure.
The 8, Skipperdee, ran a big race at Gulfstream in January, but hasn't run since. The 3, Twist n'Bake, was disappointing in her last effort, but her figures are still competitive.
2- Midnight Bounty (3/1)
8- Skipperdee (6/1)
3- Twist n'Bake (3/1)
Race 11: Red Cross Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a wide-open renewal of this race, and all nine horses in here have a case. I'll pick the 6, Tea Time, in here. Last year, she won back-to-back stakes races, earning figures as high as a 101. She took the winter off, and came back in the My Juliet Stakes at Parx. She earned a figure of 91 there, which would be good enough to win this race. Since that race, she's been firing bullets in preparation for this race, so she looks to be in top form for this race. And for her, "top form" means an easy victory.
Also worth a look is the 7, Legal Laura, who drew off to win easily last out here at Monmouth, earning a figure of 94. The 3, More Than a Party, won the Open Mind against Jersey-breds last out, and steps up into open company for this one.
6- Tea Time (9/2)
7- Legal Laura (6/1)
3- More Than a Party (7/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll try to get out with the 1, Naughty Delite. In his last race, he made a bold rally down the stretch, just missing by a head. He earned a figure of 77 in that one, which is the best last-out number in the race. His form has been getting stronger, and I think he's finally going to get his long-awaited first career win in this race.
The 9, No Brody No, was third in his last race after making a big rally around the turn. If he makes that same big rally again, it may result in a victory.
1- Naughty Delite/1A- Powered by Sun (7/2)
9- No Brody No (4/1)
2- Yourthekingjimmy (3/1)
Weather Forecast: 73*F, Chance of Showers
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
Has the 6, Candy Portena, finally found a race that she can win? It looks like it. Her last three brisnet figures are 73, 75, and 75, which no one else in the field can touch. Her record is 0-19 lifetime, with four seconds and five thirds. However, the majority of those races were against maiden special weight company, where she was facing much better. Now, she drops down to the maiden claiming level, where nobody else is close to her. She also moves into the dangerous barn of Kelly Breen, who hits at 28% when training a horse for the first time. Overall, Candy Portena will be hard to beat here.
Horses to consider using underneath her include the 2, Action Tonight, who showed a lot of early speed at this level last out. She stopped to finish second there, but may continue to improve in her fifth career start. The 3, Key d'Oro, is the only other member of the field to run figures in the 70s.
6- Candy Portena (8/5)
3- Key d'Oro (9/5)
2- Action Tonight (6/1)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
On the surface, the 7, Moneyinyour Pocket, looks like a contender. He's run competitive figures, and he's trained by David Jacobson and ridden by Andre Worrie. He looks like a "shore" thing, right?
Wrong. There's a big red flag with this horse's form. This is a horse who had been running for $62,500 tags in allowance/optional claiming races all winter, and had been in stakes last year. On April 4, he was claimed for $40,000 by Jacobson, who entered him at that level next out. He was dull there, and now is being dropped for $12,500. Why would a trainer who just bought a horse for $40,000 want to dump him for not even half that amount ten weeks later? Furthermore, this is a route horse, who finished a credible second at 1 1/4 miles last year, now he's in at 6 furlongs. Everyone else may make him the favorite, but I'm more interested just to see if he makes it all the way around the track.
With the likely favorite tossed from the analysis, all of a sudden, this is a competitive betting race. I'll go with the 5, Gypsy Baron. He ran well at 6 furlongs last out, hanging in until the end to run a respectable third. He turned in a great work on June 13 in preparation for this one, and his figures are among the best in the field. He's my choice to round out the double.
The 4, How Convienent, is also dangerous. He's been running ascending figures at Delaware, plus is trained by the red-hot Jamie Ness.
5- Gypsy Baron (4/1)
4- How Convienent (7/2)
6- Lucky Rascal (3/1)
Race 3: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Among the twelve entered in this race, only two have run a figure above 70 in recent times. My pick will be one of them: the 1, So Frank. Her last two figures, of 74 and 71, are the two best in the field. She didn't run badly at this level last out, rallying up the inside to score second. She's making her third start off the layoff here, has the inside draw, and looks to be the best in the race.
The other horse to eclipse the 70 barrier is the 8, Cafe Au Lait, who ships in from Parx. She'll be ridden by the hot Orlando Bocachica, and is definitely worth a look. The 10, Rocket Dee, broke through the gate before her last start, a forgivable excuse for her dull last-out performance. Before then, her figures were competitive. Watch for her.
1- So Frank (5/2)
8- Cafe Au Lait (9/2)
10- Rocket Dee (8/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
Check out the names of the 2 and the 2X in here: Thinking of Dad and Thinking of Mom. Well played, Richard Schibell. Well played.
Anyway, beyond those two, it's a tough field, with a lot of first-time starters. I wound up settling with the 4, Get Air Lex. She ran a big race in her first start of 2015, missing by only 2 1/2 lengths, while earning a figure of 84. That's something nobody else in the field has come close to matching in recent times. As long as she runs back close to this figure, she'll win laughing.
Of the aforementioned coupled entry, Thinking of Mom has the better form, having run well in maiden races at Belmont last year. However, she'll have to draw off a long also-eligible list to get into this race.
4- Get Air Lex (5/2)
1- Lost Sonnet/1A- Sharon Jones (9/2)
2- Thinking of Dad/2X- Thinking of Mom (8/1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'll take the 3, Thepartyneverends. She broke her maiden in impressive fashion last out here at Monmouth, drawing off to win by 4 1/2 lengths while earning a figure of 99. That's the best in the field by a lot. I expect a similar effort to last time--although even a decline by a few points would likely mean victory--and a promising career for this filly.
Also of note is the 2, Saturday Storms, who has been either first or second in all of her last five dirt starts. The 6, Hazel Eyed Girl, ran well while racing wide in her first start off the layoff in her last race.
3- Thepartyneverends (7/5)
2- Saturday Storms (7/2)
6- Hazel Eyed Girl (5/1_
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This is not an easy race to handicap. Indeed, it's hard to find many positive things to say about anyone in the field. Because of that, I'll land on the 6, Reason, who didn't run terribly last time out. Yes, she was sixth, beaten by nine lengths, but was only a half-length off of the third-place finisher. That third-place finisher, Discreet Concorde, came back to win her next start. Her figure of 68 is the second-best among last-out numbers, and she's got the Todd Pletcher-Paco Lopez combination. She's a strong contender, but may be overbet. If she's too low of a price (anything less than her morning line), don't bet her to win, but use her in multi-race bets regardless.
Also of note is the 9, Fiery Valentina, who ran well in her debut at Belmont Park. The 2, Tricky Game, has the dangerous Vitali-Bocachica combination, but hasn't raced on the grass in almost two years. The 5, Imperial Cut, has earned figures a slight cut below Reason, but is making her second start off the layoff. She may have room to improve.
6- Reason (2/1)
9- Fiery Valentina (5/2)
5- Imperial Cut (6/1)
Race 7: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
My pick is the 4, Dirty Blonde. She ran well at the $5,000 level in her last start, rallying three-wide in the stretch to get up over favored Idontknowgoaskanni. That horse came back to win her next start, vaildating Dirty Blonde's form. Her figure of 79 is the best last-out race in the field, and it was earned off a four-month layoff. She's likely to improve with a recent race, and had a great workout in preparation for this spot on June 13 to boot.
The 8, Casual Elegance, has good sprinting form, but neither Elvis Trujillo nor David Jacobson have been great shakes lately, yet their very presence en"shores" she'll be overbet. Buyer beware for anyone playing her to win. The 1, My Cousin Fay, ran a big race at Tampa last out, but her form is inconsistent.
4- Dirty Blonde (3/1)
1- My Cousin Fay (3/1)
8- Casual Elegance (7/2)
Race 8: Starter Optional Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The late pick 5 begins with a single, in the 1, Precious Metal. Without figures, his last race would look less-than-impressive, as he finished last. However, in that race, he earned a figure of 92, which towers over the rest of the field. As a matter of fact, his previous two grass starts registered an 86 and an 89, something that nobody else in the field does consistently. I'll take the idea that it's his first start off a layoff, and he may need a race. However, even if he declines a little bit, he should still win it. At a 6/1 morning line, his odds should be tantalizing.
1- Precious Metal (6/1)
3- Saturday Special (9/5)
8- Pulpit's Express (5/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I'll go with the 2, Rmilliondollarbaby, who switches from grass to dirt in this one. In her two recent dirt starts, she earned figures of 86 and 77, the best in the field. That form includes a win over the dirt. She's stepping up into allowance company from the claiming level, and trainer Allen Iwinski is a solid 20% with that angle. She'll be my choice to kick off the late pick 4.
The 3, Groovy Dancer, has been running well at Parx, and is a candidate for the exotic spots. The 7, Goldiebuxx, stretches out from a sprint to a route, and makes her second start off the layoff. Her figures indicate she has a good shot.
2- Rmilliondollarbaby (4/1)
3- Groovy Dancer (9/2)
7- Goldiebuxx (7/2)
Race 10: Claiming $35,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
My pick here is the 2, Midnight Bounty. Making her grass debut in her last start, she was three-wide down the backstretch, and had to rally four-wide into the stretch. She only missed by half a length, earning a figure of 85. With a more ground-saving trip, she should win this one easily, and hopefully improve her figure.
The 8, Skipperdee, ran a big race at Gulfstream in January, but hasn't run since. The 3, Twist n'Bake, was disappointing in her last effort, but her figures are still competitive.
2- Midnight Bounty (3/1)
8- Skipperdee (6/1)
3- Twist n'Bake (3/1)
Race 11: Red Cross Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a wide-open renewal of this race, and all nine horses in here have a case. I'll pick the 6, Tea Time, in here. Last year, she won back-to-back stakes races, earning figures as high as a 101. She took the winter off, and came back in the My Juliet Stakes at Parx. She earned a figure of 91 there, which would be good enough to win this race. Since that race, she's been firing bullets in preparation for this race, so she looks to be in top form for this race. And for her, "top form" means an easy victory.
Also worth a look is the 7, Legal Laura, who drew off to win easily last out here at Monmouth, earning a figure of 94. The 3, More Than a Party, won the Open Mind against Jersey-breds last out, and steps up into open company for this one.
6- Tea Time (9/2)
7- Legal Laura (6/1)
3- More Than a Party (7/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll try to get out with the 1, Naughty Delite. In his last race, he made a bold rally down the stretch, just missing by a head. He earned a figure of 77 in that one, which is the best last-out number in the race. His form has been getting stronger, and I think he's finally going to get his long-awaited first career win in this race.
The 9, No Brody No, was third in his last race after making a big rally around the turn. If he makes that same big rally again, it may result in a victory.
1- Naughty Delite/1A- Powered by Sun (7/2)
9- No Brody No (4/1)
2- Yourthekingjimmy (3/1)
Monmouth Racing Recap: 6/19/15
Warm weather and partly cloudy skies greeted the steeplechasers at Monmouth, which went along with seven flat races.
Note that I will not be doing recaps of the jump races, because there's not much in the way of trip notes. Also, there's no more jumps for the rest of the year, so any analysis of them wouldn't help Monmouth bettors. Anyway...
Race 2 (Momma's Favorite, Kathy Monegon-Daniel Centeno, 1:46.3)
The scratches of both Sonyador and Savanna Breeze made Momma's Favorite a cinch. She was bet down to 3/5 as such. As for the race itself, it was over by the first turn, when Momma's Favorite took a clear early lead. Nobody tried to close, and she won by eleven easy lengths. Royal Cashmere made a mild run at the lead, and finished a clear second.
Race 4 (Broad Rule, Lucia Garibay-Paco Lopez, 1:11.3)
Broad Rule proved much the best in here, rating four-wide down the back stretch, then rallying three-wide around the turn to win it. Pro Prospect, the other main contender was disappointing. He rated in the two-path and made ground late, but proved no match for the winner.
Race 6 (Lewis Henry, Manny Berrios-John Soto, 1:12.0)
It's a shocker to begin the pick 5, as Lewis Henry rated two-wide off the pace, didn't quit, and passed leader Siena Indian for a 75/1 shocker. It was jockey John Soto's first winner of the season, in his 35th try. Also noteworthy in defeat were Siena Indian, who had to be hustled for the lead, finally cleared at the 1/2 mile pole, but wilted at the 1/8. Gottcha Blessin was wide the entire way around, but still rallied to score second at 16/1 odds.
Race 7 (Wolfie, Greg Sacco-Nik Juarez, :54.0)
Wolfie stalked speedy longshot Sweet Cookie, then blew past her once she faded for an easy win. It was a disappointing effort for Candystand, who was no threat whatsoever at 2/1 odds. So far, Kelly Breen has not been clicking with his two-year-olds. We'll see if that changes.
Race 8 (Arissa, Bobby Dibona-Joe Bravo, 1:44.4)
I said that if Arissa got a more-ground saving trip, she'll win it. "Shore" enough, she wasn't quite as wide as she was last time, and she ran away to an easy victory. Unfortunately, she was only 6/5, because bettors aren't as stupid as I think sometimes. Still, a winner is a winner.
Race 9 (First Spark, Todd Pletcher-Joe Bravo, 1:41.4)
Back-to-back wins for Joe Bravo on this card, as First Spark made a gradual rally to draw off and win easily.
Race 10 (Pagan Ora, John Tammaro-Carlos Marquez, 1:53.0)
A three-way speed duel up front between Kid Gavlian, Shylock, and Cavity set this race up for a closer. Even though Cavity hung on well, it was 9/1 Pagan Ora who rallied on the outside and won it by a 1/2 length. That set it up for a pick 5 and Jersey Shore 6 carryover.
Note that I will not be doing recaps of the jump races, because there's not much in the way of trip notes. Also, there's no more jumps for the rest of the year, so any analysis of them wouldn't help Monmouth bettors. Anyway...
Race 2 (Momma's Favorite, Kathy Monegon-Daniel Centeno, 1:46.3)
The scratches of both Sonyador and Savanna Breeze made Momma's Favorite a cinch. She was bet down to 3/5 as such. As for the race itself, it was over by the first turn, when Momma's Favorite took a clear early lead. Nobody tried to close, and she won by eleven easy lengths. Royal Cashmere made a mild run at the lead, and finished a clear second.
Race 4 (Broad Rule, Lucia Garibay-Paco Lopez, 1:11.3)
Broad Rule proved much the best in here, rating four-wide down the back stretch, then rallying three-wide around the turn to win it. Pro Prospect, the other main contender was disappointing. He rated in the two-path and made ground late, but proved no match for the winner.
Race 6 (Lewis Henry, Manny Berrios-John Soto, 1:12.0)
It's a shocker to begin the pick 5, as Lewis Henry rated two-wide off the pace, didn't quit, and passed leader Siena Indian for a 75/1 shocker. It was jockey John Soto's first winner of the season, in his 35th try. Also noteworthy in defeat were Siena Indian, who had to be hustled for the lead, finally cleared at the 1/2 mile pole, but wilted at the 1/8. Gottcha Blessin was wide the entire way around, but still rallied to score second at 16/1 odds.
Race 7 (Wolfie, Greg Sacco-Nik Juarez, :54.0)
Wolfie stalked speedy longshot Sweet Cookie, then blew past her once she faded for an easy win. It was a disappointing effort for Candystand, who was no threat whatsoever at 2/1 odds. So far, Kelly Breen has not been clicking with his two-year-olds. We'll see if that changes.
Race 8 (Arissa, Bobby Dibona-Joe Bravo, 1:44.4)
I said that if Arissa got a more-ground saving trip, she'll win it. "Shore" enough, she wasn't quite as wide as she was last time, and she ran away to an easy victory. Unfortunately, she was only 6/5, because bettors aren't as stupid as I think sometimes. Still, a winner is a winner.
Race 9 (First Spark, Todd Pletcher-Joe Bravo, 1:41.4)
Back-to-back wins for Joe Bravo on this card, as First Spark made a gradual rally to draw off and win easily.
Race 10 (Pagan Ora, John Tammaro-Carlos Marquez, 1:53.0)
A three-way speed duel up front between Kid Gavlian, Shylock, and Cavity set this race up for a closer. Even though Cavity hung on well, it was 9/1 Pagan Ora who rallied on the outside and won it by a 1/2 length. That set it up for a pick 5 and Jersey Shore 6 carryover.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
June 19, 2015: Picks and Analysis
It's an unusual card to begin the racing week here at Monmouth, as we'll have not one, not two, but THREE steeplechase races. I've always enjoyed watching races like those, but as far as handicapping them, you might as well throw a dart and hope for the best. I'll try my best here, though, and try to pick the winners of the seven flat races we'll see on the Friday program.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
I'll go with the horse in the field with the best grass form: the 2, North Star Boy. He tried to run in a steeplechase at Fair Hill last out, but one of the stirrups broke, and he never had a chance. Cross that race out, and you're left with a horse who had good grass form, most recently running fourth in the Henry Clark Stakes at Pimlico. Now, he's going into a race with mostly bad flat horses and horses who haven't won over fences (obviously), and figures to win easily, as long as he handles the jumps. He was 3/1 in that first aborted effort, so expect a similar price on him here.
The 3, Aheadofthecurve, ran well in his steeplechase debut at Charlotte. He was in contention all the way, and missed by only half a length. Expect another good effort here.
The 5, Boom and Bust, has interesting form. In his lone career start, over fences at Malvern, he dwelt at the start and was left well behind. Nonetheless, he got back in the mix late, only to tire from his exertion and drop back again. If he breaks with the pack this time, expect better.
2- North Star Boy (3/1)
3- Aheadofthecurve (9/2)
5- Boom and Bust (12/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
As always, I'm wary of going with horses who are 0-12 lifetime, but I'll take that gamble with the 2, Momma's Favorite. Her two races on the dirt are the best in the field, with brisnet figures of 58 and 67, respectively. That 58 is the co-best in the field last out, and the 67 is better than anyone else in the field has run in their lives. She turned in a bullet work in preparation for this spot, and has the hot hands of Daniel Centeno riding. She's the most likely winner here.
The 12, Savanna Breeze, didn't run too badly at this level last time out, but may have some issues breaking from the far outside post. The 1, Sonyador, stepped up her form last out, and makes her third start off the layoff here.
2- Momma's Favorite (5/2)
12- Savanna Breeze (10/1)
1- Sonyador/1A- Rain on Fire (10/1)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
The 3, Curmudgeon, is my pick. Last year, he was a master of long-distance races, earning back-to-back wins at 2 1/8 miles and 2 1/4 miles at Presque Isle. His one steeplechase effort was a solid one, closing from the back of the pack mid-race only to flatten. I expect improvement in his second career jump effort, which should lead him to victory.
Also worthy of consideration are the 1, Ride Away, who has earned back-to-back seconds over the fences, and the 5, Hardrock Eleven, who moved prematurely in his steeplechase effort, and makes his third start off the layoff.
3- Curmudgeon (5/1)
1- Ride Away (5/2)
5- Hardrock Eleven (6/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race runs through two shippers: the 3, Pro Prospect, and the 8, Broad Rule. I lean toward Pro Prospect, however, considering he's trained by Jamie Ness, who is scoring at 42% on the meet, and is 28% with shippers. With those connections, you won't get a great price. However, he ran two great races at Delaware, and if he can duplicate those, he has a very good chance of winning.
Broad Rule also has a chance, coming off of some good races at Pimlico and Parx. He also gets the riding services of Paco Lopez, as Daniel Centeno hops off to ride Pro Prospect. Both horses should be used in multi-race wagers.
3- Pro Prospect (5/2)
8- Broad Rule (7/2)
4- What the Chub (4/1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
I like the 5, Street Fight in here, as he's taking a drop in class. He was competitive in stakes races at the steeplechase level, even placing second in the G3 Imperial Cup at Aiken. Nobody else here has had that kind of consistent form at the jump level, so he'll be my selection.
5- Street Fight (3/1)
2- So Outspoken (9/2)
9- Arrakis (5/1)
Race 6: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
A full field of twelve has been assembled for this claiming race. I'll go with the 8, Siena Indian. In his last race, at Tampa Bay Downs--which was his first in fifteen months--he had a bit of an awkward start, but nonetheless cleared to the lead and drew off to win easily. His brisnet figure of 77 is tied for the best last-out figure in the field. He's got a lot of speed--in that race he set fractions of :21.4 and :45.3, but never flinched--and good workouts coming into this race. I'm expecting a big effort out of him.
The 1, Hereosaurus Rex, broke his maiden last out here at Monmouth, and has been running increasingly improving figures. His entrymate, Keepin it Zeal, was involved in a tough speed duel last out, but it was his first start off a long layoff, and certainly has room to improve here.
8- Siena Indian (7/2)
1- Hereosaurus Rex/1A- Keepin it Zeal (4/1)
2- Little Tom (5/1)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, Fillies, 4 1/2 Furlongs
I know that the Breen-Hall combination is 0-1 in terms of 2-year-old maidens, but in a race like this, it's hard to go against a first-timer that they send out. In this case, they'll have the 8, Candystand. They'll use Paco Lopez as their rider, which never hurts, and has been working well going into this race. She's not going to be a good value, to be "shore", but she's the most likely winner.
Among horses who have run, the coupled entry of Scoff and Don's Girl have both shown good form--the former at Indiana Grand, the latter at Pimlico.
8- Candystand (3/1)
1- Scoff/1A- Don's Girl (5/2)
7- Wolfie (8/1)
Race 8: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 4, Arissa, is a standout. In her last race, she broke slowly, and was forced to run in the four-path the entire way around. That's usually a death sentence for a horse. And "shore" enough, it was, as she faded to finish fifth. However, she was near the lead entering the stretch, and only lost by three lengths. That kind of effort was practically heroic. Here, she's got the second-best last-out figure coming into this race (a 75), and gets an upgrade in jockey to Joe Bravo. Even better, it's her third race off the layoff, always an indicator of improvement. Hopefully, she'll be a great price. If she is, this will be a great betting opportunity.
The 11, Takeoff Your Hat, ran some terrific figures last year, many of which would win this race. However, she hasn't raced since September, so I won't exactly be betting her with both fists. She's worth a use as a back-up in the pick 4 or pick 5, though.
4- Arissa (3/1)
11- Takeoff Your Hat (7/2)
2- Village Princess (10/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
It's a wide open, difficult race, and I wouldn't advocate taking a low price on anybody. That being said, my pick will be the 1, First Spark. He won his debut at Aqueduct in dominating fashion, earning a 98 brisnet figure. He declined in his last race at Keeneland, earning only an 84, but he was extremely wide in that race. Breaking out of the inside post here, he shouldn't have that issue. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who is always dangerous every time he ships a horse in. Once again, I wouldn't bet him if he was a low price, but if he runs back to his debut, he'll be tough to beat.
There's plenty of of other horses worth considering, too: such as the 4, Box Office, who is proven over a route, and is being ridden by the hot Orlando Bocachica. The 8, Cee No More, was also very wide in his last race, but still earned a last-out best of 89.
1- First Spark (3/1)
8- Cee No More (6/1)
4- Box Office (4/1)
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
On paper, the 1, Kid Gavilan, has the best past form in the field. He's earned figures of 75 and 78 in the past on the grass, which would win this race easily. However, I can't find an excuse for his last race, where he was beaten by fifteen lengths. He's had slow workouts since then, suggesting that he is not likely to return to that good form. I'm leery of him.
I'll take a bit of a price in this one, in the 7, Shylock. Last time out, he earned a 69 figure, the best last-out number in the race. Among all the horses in the field, he's earned the best numbers routing on the grass. I know he hasn't hit the board in ten career starts, but in a field like this, he's worth a shot.
7- Shylock (6/1)
8- Feverish Loot (6/1)
1- Kid Gavilan (9/5)
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
I'll go with the horse in the field with the best grass form: the 2, North Star Boy. He tried to run in a steeplechase at Fair Hill last out, but one of the stirrups broke, and he never had a chance. Cross that race out, and you're left with a horse who had good grass form, most recently running fourth in the Henry Clark Stakes at Pimlico. Now, he's going into a race with mostly bad flat horses and horses who haven't won over fences (obviously), and figures to win easily, as long as he handles the jumps. He was 3/1 in that first aborted effort, so expect a similar price on him here.
The 3, Aheadofthecurve, ran well in his steeplechase debut at Charlotte. He was in contention all the way, and missed by only half a length. Expect another good effort here.
The 5, Boom and Bust, has interesting form. In his lone career start, over fences at Malvern, he dwelt at the start and was left well behind. Nonetheless, he got back in the mix late, only to tire from his exertion and drop back again. If he breaks with the pack this time, expect better.
2- North Star Boy (3/1)
3- Aheadofthecurve (9/2)
5- Boom and Bust (12/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
As always, I'm wary of going with horses who are 0-12 lifetime, but I'll take that gamble with the 2, Momma's Favorite. Her two races on the dirt are the best in the field, with brisnet figures of 58 and 67, respectively. That 58 is the co-best in the field last out, and the 67 is better than anyone else in the field has run in their lives. She turned in a bullet work in preparation for this spot, and has the hot hands of Daniel Centeno riding. She's the most likely winner here.
The 12, Savanna Breeze, didn't run too badly at this level last time out, but may have some issues breaking from the far outside post. The 1, Sonyador, stepped up her form last out, and makes her third start off the layoff here.
2- Momma's Favorite (5/2)
12- Savanna Breeze (10/1)
1- Sonyador/1A- Rain on Fire (10/1)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
The 3, Curmudgeon, is my pick. Last year, he was a master of long-distance races, earning back-to-back wins at 2 1/8 miles and 2 1/4 miles at Presque Isle. His one steeplechase effort was a solid one, closing from the back of the pack mid-race only to flatten. I expect improvement in his second career jump effort, which should lead him to victory.
Also worthy of consideration are the 1, Ride Away, who has earned back-to-back seconds over the fences, and the 5, Hardrock Eleven, who moved prematurely in his steeplechase effort, and makes his third start off the layoff.
3- Curmudgeon (5/1)
1- Ride Away (5/2)
5- Hardrock Eleven (6/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race runs through two shippers: the 3, Pro Prospect, and the 8, Broad Rule. I lean toward Pro Prospect, however, considering he's trained by Jamie Ness, who is scoring at 42% on the meet, and is 28% with shippers. With those connections, you won't get a great price. However, he ran two great races at Delaware, and if he can duplicate those, he has a very good chance of winning.
Broad Rule also has a chance, coming off of some good races at Pimlico and Parx. He also gets the riding services of Paco Lopez, as Daniel Centeno hops off to ride Pro Prospect. Both horses should be used in multi-race wagers.
3- Pro Prospect (5/2)
8- Broad Rule (7/2)
4- What the Chub (4/1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 4yo and up, 2 1/4 Miles (Steeplechase)
I like the 5, Street Fight in here, as he's taking a drop in class. He was competitive in stakes races at the steeplechase level, even placing second in the G3 Imperial Cup at Aiken. Nobody else here has had that kind of consistent form at the jump level, so he'll be my selection.
5- Street Fight (3/1)
2- So Outspoken (9/2)
9- Arrakis (5/1)
Race 6: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
A full field of twelve has been assembled for this claiming race. I'll go with the 8, Siena Indian. In his last race, at Tampa Bay Downs--which was his first in fifteen months--he had a bit of an awkward start, but nonetheless cleared to the lead and drew off to win easily. His brisnet figure of 77 is tied for the best last-out figure in the field. He's got a lot of speed--in that race he set fractions of :21.4 and :45.3, but never flinched--and good workouts coming into this race. I'm expecting a big effort out of him.
The 1, Hereosaurus Rex, broke his maiden last out here at Monmouth, and has been running increasingly improving figures. His entrymate, Keepin it Zeal, was involved in a tough speed duel last out, but it was his first start off a long layoff, and certainly has room to improve here.
8- Siena Indian (7/2)
1- Hereosaurus Rex/1A- Keepin it Zeal (4/1)
2- Little Tom (5/1)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, Fillies, 4 1/2 Furlongs
I know that the Breen-Hall combination is 0-1 in terms of 2-year-old maidens, but in a race like this, it's hard to go against a first-timer that they send out. In this case, they'll have the 8, Candystand. They'll use Paco Lopez as their rider, which never hurts, and has been working well going into this race. She's not going to be a good value, to be "shore", but she's the most likely winner.
Among horses who have run, the coupled entry of Scoff and Don's Girl have both shown good form--the former at Indiana Grand, the latter at Pimlico.
8- Candystand (3/1)
1- Scoff/1A- Don's Girl (5/2)
7- Wolfie (8/1)
Race 8: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 4, Arissa, is a standout. In her last race, she broke slowly, and was forced to run in the four-path the entire way around. That's usually a death sentence for a horse. And "shore" enough, it was, as she faded to finish fifth. However, she was near the lead entering the stretch, and only lost by three lengths. That kind of effort was practically heroic. Here, she's got the second-best last-out figure coming into this race (a 75), and gets an upgrade in jockey to Joe Bravo. Even better, it's her third race off the layoff, always an indicator of improvement. Hopefully, she'll be a great price. If she is, this will be a great betting opportunity.
The 11, Takeoff Your Hat, ran some terrific figures last year, many of which would win this race. However, she hasn't raced since September, so I won't exactly be betting her with both fists. She's worth a use as a back-up in the pick 4 or pick 5, though.
4- Arissa (3/1)
11- Takeoff Your Hat (7/2)
2- Village Princess (10/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
It's a wide open, difficult race, and I wouldn't advocate taking a low price on anybody. That being said, my pick will be the 1, First Spark. He won his debut at Aqueduct in dominating fashion, earning a 98 brisnet figure. He declined in his last race at Keeneland, earning only an 84, but he was extremely wide in that race. Breaking out of the inside post here, he shouldn't have that issue. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, who is always dangerous every time he ships a horse in. Once again, I wouldn't bet him if he was a low price, but if he runs back to his debut, he'll be tough to beat.
There's plenty of of other horses worth considering, too: such as the 4, Box Office, who is proven over a route, and is being ridden by the hot Orlando Bocachica. The 8, Cee No More, was also very wide in his last race, but still earned a last-out best of 89.
1- First Spark (3/1)
8- Cee No More (6/1)
4- Box Office (4/1)
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
On paper, the 1, Kid Gavilan, has the best past form in the field. He's earned figures of 75 and 78 in the past on the grass, which would win this race easily. However, I can't find an excuse for his last race, where he was beaten by fifteen lengths. He's had slow workouts since then, suggesting that he is not likely to return to that good form. I'm leery of him.
I'll take a bit of a price in this one, in the 7, Shylock. Last time out, he earned a 69 figure, the best last-out number in the race. Among all the horses in the field, he's earned the best numbers routing on the grass. I know he hasn't hit the board in ten career starts, but in a field like this, he's worth a shot.
7- Shylock (6/1)
8- Feverish Loot (6/1)
1- Kid Gavilan (9/5)
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Tuesday Thoughts
- I noted this in another post, but both Marcus Vitali and Orlando Bocachica have been the hot trainer and jockey, respectively, recently. Bocachica has guided home fourteen winners, good for a tie for fourth in the standings. Vitali, meanwhile, has had nine winners, second place behind Jorge Navarro, and hits at 29%. He's not a well-known name outside of Monmouth, so get the good prices on him before everyone else catches on.
- Even less talked about is Bruce Alexander. He's only had six starters on the year, but he's won with four of them.
- The Pegasus is being run on Sunday. In my opinion, it would make more sense to run the Pegasus on Memorial Day weekend, then the Long Branch Stakes on Independence Day weekend, then the Haskell. That way, horses would have a better opportunity to run in all three races.
- For that matter, if the Monmouth Cup is held on Haskell day, the Iselin should be moved back to early-mid September, to allow more time for horses to run in both.
- It's nice to see Maryland-based Cecily Evans take two mounts on Monmouth on Friday. The big question: will Evans and fellow Maryland-based Nik Juarez stay at Monmouth all summer, or will they return to Laurel once they re-open in July?
- On Friday, there's three steeplechase races at Monmouth. This represents a 33% increase from last year, when there were two steeplechase races on the comparable Friday.
- I was going through some Monmouth news archives the other day, and found some gems. Specifically, that War Emblem was withdrawn from consideration for the 2002 Haskell on July 24 of that year, only to re-enter the mix three days later. Of course, he won that race easily.
There's also the fact that Empire Maker was entered in the 2003 Jersey Derby (may that race rest in peace), only to scratch and run in the Belmont twelve days later. That was a good move. - Freestyler won his third race on Sunday, having won all of them in gutsy style. I've been formulating a race series called the "Monmouth Park Championship Series", which would be year-end championship for horses who performed well at Monmouth over the course of the season. It's still in the developing stages, but rest assured, it's "shore" to be great.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)