After all the hoopla about American Pharaoh's Triple Crown win, it's back to the ol' grind here at Monmouth Park, with a ten race card on Friday. Of course, that doesn't mean that the quest to bring American Pharaoh to the Haskell stops--in fact, a sign at the Oceanport Fire Department urges the Zayats to bring Pharaoh to Monmouth. There is precedent, of course: Bob Baffert winning the Haskell is an annual tradition, and the Zayats won this race with Paynter in 2012. Now, I can't say anything for "shore", but it would be great if Pharaoh came by Monmouth. Attendance records would be shattered.
Anyway, out of the daydream, into Friday's card. Note that Ken Warkentin will be announcing today, and every card for the next two weeks. Frank Mirahmadi will be calling at Santa Anita.
Weather Forecast: 84*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
"Good bets" and "maiden claiming $10,000" don't really go together, but I found one here. The 2, Sexy Maddie, ran a brisnet speed figure of 60 in her last start, which represents the best last-out figures among all horses who have raced in 2015. The other two to run that well in their last starts--the 1, Lina Bella, and the 6, Lili St. Cyr--have not raced in thirteen and eight months, respectively. In Sexy Maddie's last start, she was chasing a clear leader who she had no hope of beating. Now, she's one of the fastest in the race, as opposed to in her last race, where she was a midpack candidate at best. She's making her third start off the layoff, too, indicating that she's ready to turn in a peak effort. Of course, I never say a horse is a cinch in a field like this one, but she'll be tough to beat, for "shore".
The 5, Acrostic, exits the same race that Sexy Maddie does, and is a candidate to improve second off the layoff. The hot hands of Orlando Bocachica will be in the saddle, another plus.
2- Sexy Maddie (2/1)
5- Acrostic (8/5)
6- Lili St. Cyr (6/1)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
In any type of race, having a lot of early speed is an enormous tactical advantage. Just ask American Pharaoh. Nobody in this field has more early speed than the 8, Starship Gambler, which is why she'll be my pick. In her two races over the winter at Gulfstream, she sprinted out to huge early leads--six lengths in one race, five and a half in the other--only to lose them both. However, those were her first races off a layoff of more than a year. Granted, she hasn't raced since January 1 going into this race, but her workouts have been decent going into this one, so it's likely she'll turn in a good effort. The kicker: her brisnet speed figures are the best in the field, earning an 85 and a 79 in those two Gulfstream races despite that long layoff. If she can run back to those, this race will be over quickly--she'll jump out to the early lead and not look back.
The 7, Angela's Dream, has been running well at Belmont, but is taking a sharp reduction in claiming price, down from the $25,000 level. The 6, Fava, improved greatly off the layoff with a great closing kick at Tampa last out.
8- Starship Gambler (6/1)
7- Angela's Dream (3/1)
6- Fava (7/2)
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The two main contenders in this small-but-select group of runners are to the outside: the 4, Lil Honey Badger, who earned figures of 87, 95, and 88 in her last three, while the 5, Checkupfromzneckup, ran a 91, an 85, and an 87 most recently. On the surface, it would be hard to separate these two, but I give Lil Honey Badger the edge for two reasons:
1. The Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno combination, which is money. Ness, especially, is a whopping 6-13 at the meet.
2. Her early speed. She's a front-runner, which gives her an edge over Checkupfromzneckup, who tends to stalk.
However, I will admit that, if you're playing a pick 4 or a pick 5, use both horses. They're dangerous.
4- Lil Honey Badger (9/5)
5- Checkupfromzneckup (5/2)
3- Sweet on Smokey (12/1)
Race 4: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
In her last race, the 6, Arnhem, was much the best on paper, and ran like it: she dueled in the two-path, shook off her rival, and drew away to an easy score. Her brisnet figure in that race was an 88, which is the best last-out number in the field by nine points. Her other figures are also the best by a longshot. Victory is a virtual certainty for her.
6- Arnhem (6/5)
1- Midnightinpositano (3/1)
4- A Unique Lady (4/1)
Race 5: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
A wide-open bunch of runners concludes the early pick 5 on this Friday, and it's not easy to come up with a strong selection in this race. However, I'll try my best to think of someone, and go with the 6, Stirling Castle. In his last start, he was compromised by having nowhere to run during rallying time. He was only fifth in that race, but he earned a figure of 78 in that race. The only one to do better last out was the 4, Sunbio, and he earned that figure in a sprint, as opposed to a route. Stirling Castle's consistency at that mid-70s level earns him my nod here.
The 1, Palace Gate, is also one to think about, as he battled hard last time out, only to just miss. He's also run three consecutive improving figures, which can be a plus or a minus depending on how you look at it. After all, those three straight can mean that he's bound to decline here.
6- Stirling Castle (7/2)
1- Palace Gate (9/5)
4- Sunbio (12/1)
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
A crack bunch of starter allowance horses lines up here, and I'll pick the one on the inside: the 1, North Ocean. He won at this same level last time out, racing wide the whole way and battling on for the victory. Now, he draws a spot further inside, which (hopefully) means that he won't lose as much ground. His figures are the best, too, earning back-to-back 92s, which no one else in the field has run in their last three. Don't expect too much value on him (he went off at 1/2 in his last start, after all), but he's a pretty safe bet.
The 5, Cherokee Colors, was second to North Ocean last out, after being blocked for part of the stretch. The 2, Keep the Canoli, has showed a lot of speed sprinting, and hopes to extend that speed to a route.
1- North Ocean (2/1)
5- Cherokee Colors (7/2)
2- Keep the Canoli (4/1)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
This is a tricky handicapping puzzle: seven out of the ten Jersey-breds in here have never run before, and the three who have run have not shown inspiring form. I'll take a stab with the 7, Ride This Train. He's been working well for this race, turning in a series of three and four furlong bullets. Trainer Eddie Plesa hits at 23% with first-time starters--including a winner at $12.40 last Friday--and Paco Lopez is Paco Lopez. He's no cinch, by any stretch, but in a field like this, he's got more good things about him than bad, and that may be enough to score.
Among all the horses who have run before, the 10, Just Ace, has the best form, with two fourths this year, running figures in the lower 70s. That may be good enough to win this race yet.
7- Ride This Train (3/1)
10- Just Ace (4/1)
1- Irace (8/1)
Race 8: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll go with the 6, Luckystrikedelcoco. I liked her effort here at Monmouth on May 10, in which she stumbled at the start, only to rally and finish clear of the rest of the field--second by 3 1/2 lengths. The winner of that race had a clear early lead, and no chance of being caught. Going to Parx for her next start against straight maidens, Luckystrikedelcoco was clear late, only to get caught in the end. Even so, she earned a brisnet figure of 76, an improvement from her second-back number of 73. Both of those are likely good enough to win it here. I think she'll like the class relief that she's getting, so I'll go with her.
The 2, Discreet Concorde, was third behind Luckystrikedelcoco in that race, but may prove a cut below her here. The 3, Never Say No Girl, ran well in her debut, but I am not "shore" if she can stretch out from 5 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
6- Luckystrikedelcoco (5/2)
3- Never Say No Girl (6/1)
2- Discreet Concorde (3/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
This is an on-point race right here: ten quality allowance horses going a route. I will be pulling for the 2, Barrister Jim, who has won five races in a row, and I've always liked hard-knocking horses like that. From a handicapping standpoint, he ran a big effort first off the long layoff, earning a 92 at Aqueduct in his last race. He was pressed the whole way around in that race, through a decently fast pace, yet was gutsy enough to hold on and win by a nose. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez also hits at 24% with horses off a 46-to-90 day layoff, so I expect further improvement in here.
The 9, Marriage Fever, is also dangerous--he's been narrowly missing in his last few, and has the Jacobson-Worrie combination on his side. The 10, Stolen Love, scored a solid gate-to-wire win at Laurel in his last dirt start, but may have a tougher time getting the lead in a two-turn route, as opposed to a one-turn route.
2- Barrister Jim (7/2)
9- Marriage Fever (4/1)
10- Stolen Love (12/1)
Race 10: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
Eight grass sprinters go to post in the finale. It's not an easy race, but I'll take a shot with the 4, All About Yasom. His last three figures are 84, 82, and 80, a big plus in a field where nobody does 80 on a steady basis. Even if he declines a few points, the rest of the field would have to step up in a big way to win it. I'll take him.
Also, just in case anyone didn't notice, the 2, Dixie Band, hasn't run since October 19, 2012. Who brings a horse off of that long of a layoff?
4- All About Yasom (5/2)
7- Gottalovethdrake (4/1)
3- Ominous Thomas (9/2)
That concludes my thoughts on his program. The first race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck to everyone playing!
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