How to Improve Haskell Weekend

For weeks, Monmouth Park has been touting the "Pharoah Phan Phest" in conjuction with American Pharoah's appearance in the Haskell Invitational next Sunday. On the face, it's a terrific idea--after all, there's no better way to promote the arrival of the Triple Crown winner than with a major racing festival.

When one looks at Friday's card, with a whopping 86 horses, one wonders if this whole thing will wind up a tad underwhelming. And it shouldn't be.

For starters...

• One idea I had at the start of the season was to have purse bonuses. One, implemented by NYRA in the past, was to increase the purse by 10% should eight or more betting interests leave the paddock. The other, used by Del Mar, gives any horse shipping in a bonus if they win. Especially in the face of Laurel siphoning off horses from Monmouth, why not put those bonuses in place for Haskell weekend? It would make the racing a lot more appealing.
• While I'm at it, the Thursday before the Belmont, NYRA ran only eight races. Those eight races, however, had full fields and quality racing. It may not hurt Monmouth to only run nine races on Haskell Friday, then have ten/eleven races on Saturday. Not only would it give a quality-not-quantity approach to the weekend, it would help increase fields for Sunday, along with the rest of the season.

As for Friday's racing:

• With the "Joes v. Jocks" mini-golf contest taking place after the races, and going until nightfall, it would be cool to move the races back to a twilight post (around 4:00 PM). As I've alluded to before, twilight racing would increase the Friday crowd. You'd get more people for the Pharoah button, magazine giveaway, and Lady's Secret Happy Hour. If the ninth race went off at around 7:30 PM, that would be a nice segue into the Joes v. Jocks contest.
  As to the people who signed up for the Joes v. Jocks contest, give them free admission, free programs, plus some betting vouchers. It would serve as a nice thank-you for signing up, and improve their day at the races.

With regards to Saturday:

• If Saturday is going to be made into "Ladies Day", move some big filly and mare races to that day. The Molly Pitcher, once a Haskell day co-feature now relegated to an obscure Friday spot, would serve nicely as a cornerstone of this day. Even better, move the Monmouth Oaks to this day, and the Matchmaker. Those races, plus the Regret Stakes, would create a strong four-pack of stakes for filly and mare horses. It also makes for not just one, but two high-quality days of racing that weekend. 
• While the number of events that Churchill and Pimlico have for their "Ladies Day" pre Derby and Preakness would be too numerous to list here, it wouldn't hurt to have a few of those events on Haskell Saturday as well.

As to how to promote the race:

• Make sure people know that the website exists. And improve it, too. Give detailed bios of not just American Pharoah, but all of his challengers. Post videos of past Haskells, along with the charts. Update the information on each of those past races (for example, the 2000 Haskell is no longer the highest handle day in NJ racing history, as one could've guessed). Update the blog more often, with American Pharoah news, plus news about field developments. 
• Get billboards down the shore to show American Pharoah's likeness. I've already seen one billboard for Monmouth Park (near the track, approaching Asbury Park). Re-purpose it to talk about American Pharoah and the Haskell. Buy a few more around the Shore to do the same thing.
• Get some planes to fly along the beach talking about American Pharoah, along with the URL to the Haskell website. Admittedly, I have not been to the beach since American Pharoah was announced as going to the Haskell, so they may be doing this already. If they are, good for them!
• Vice President Bill Knauf was on Channel 10/55 news Saturday night to discuss the Haskell. That's a good first step. Start a blitz around New York/New Jersey media to promote this race. The more people that know about it, the better.

These are just a few of the ways the Haskell can be better promoted. Of course, Monmouth Park has taken steps to make it a bigger event than normal. I, for example, am not "shore" if I would have had the idea to let the public in to watch American Pharoah work out. But there's many other things that can be done. It can make the Haskell a terrific weekend, not just this year, but every year. And that's for "shore".

NOTE: while I use American Pharoah's name a lot in these ideas, they can be applied to whoever the Haskell headliner is in any given year. 

July 26, 2015: Picks and Analysis

Today at Monmouth, there are not one, but TWO runnings of the Little Silver Stakes. These are exciting times, people!

Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy

Race 1: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The two favorites in this race are taking plunges in claiming price. The 1, Clock Stopper, was running for $25,000 at this level at Belmont a few weeks ago, but now drops in for $7,500. The 5, Herecomesmisskitty, was a stakes competitor last year, and was in for $16,000 last out at Gulfstream. While none of them are especially strong, I give a slight edge to Clock Stopper. She's got a lot of early speed from the rail, so she could sneak to a clear early lead and not get caught late. Trainer Jason Servis also hits at a sharp 26% with shippers, and has been having a great season overall.
1- Clock Stopper (2/1)
5- Herecomesmisskitty (8/5)
6- Confrontational (6/1)

Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I hate taking a short price on any horse, much less a horse in a race like this, However, the 7, Daddy's Crazy Girl, looks very tough. Her brisnet figures are all in the high 50s, and all of them were earned in route races. This is stark contrast to some of the others, who have run figures like those in sprints. Essentially, Daddy's Crazy Girl is the only one who has proven herself (relatively speaking) over a route of ground. That being said, I wouldn't take her 7/5 morning line, and she'll likely be way lower than that. Key her in the pick 5 if you want, but don't play her to win.
7- Daddy's Crazy Girl (7/5)
5- Sonyador (9/2)
2- Roman Sister (10/1)

Race 3: Claiming $30,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 7, Ginger Goose, in here. He's been coming close in his last two races at this level, running second and fourth, while earning figures of 83 and 84. Trainer Eddie Broome hits at a solid 21% with horses beaten as the favorite in their last start, and his late pace figures are better (albeit only slightly more so) than his rivals. It's a wide-open race, but I'll give Ginger Goose the slight edge.
The 4, Call Wil, was scratched out of a similar spot Saturday, and possesses a lot of early speed. The 5, E Biscuit, was third in his last start at this level, and hopes to break better in this outing.
7- Ginger Goose (5/2)
4- Call Wil (3/1)
5- E Biscuit (5/1)

Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's another short-priced horse that looks very difficult to beat. The 8, Roundupthelute, is by far the most consistent member of the field, frequently earning figures in the low 80s. He'll also be ridden by Trevor McCarthy and trained by David Jacobson, which are generally keys to a Monmouth victory. He doesn't have a lot of early speed, which makes him somewhat vulnerable, but he should be good enough that he'll roll by the rest of them.
If Roundupthelute doesn't fire, the 2, Bat Cave, is the most likely to upset. He improved sharply in his last effort, at this level. However, both trainer Holly Harris and jockey Jonathan Zayas are ice-cold at this meet. If you can get a decent price, however, he may be worth a shot. The 1, First Ronin, was disappointing in a route last out, but now cuts back to a sprint, where he had been much better. Watch for him, too.
8- Roundupthelute (1/1)
1- First Ronin (6/1)
2- Bat Cave (5/1)

Race 5: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
The 9, The Comish, looks like much the best in here. In his last race, at this level and distance, he rallied from the back of the pack to get up and win it by a neck. Now, he returns to this level, retaining Paco Lopez in the saddle. Trainer Eddie Plesa also has a positive ROI with horses who are claiming repeaters, making him all the more appealing.
The 5, Artempus, returns to the grass, where he had showed better form in the past. Jorge Navarro hits at 41% with horses second off the layoff, so he is dangerous as well. The 6, Very Colorful, has been sharply improving in his last three races, and worked three furlongs in a blazing :35.3 while preparing for this spot.
9- The Comish (4/1)
5- Artempus (9/2)
6- Very Colorful (5/1)

Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Another wide-open field greets us in here. My pick will be the 2, Joni's Wildcat. He made his first start off a seven-week layoff in his last outing, and rallied up the rail to narrowly miss by a neck. Now, he comes into a very similar spot with a race under his belt, a jockey upgrade to Daniel Centeno, and one of the best last-out figures in the race: a 77. He looks the most likely.
The 5, What the Chub, has the most early speed by far, but tired last out when he got caught in a duel. He hopes to get clear in this spot. The 10, One Red Cat, has been one of the fastest in the field if one tosses his routes. At a 10/1 morning line, he looks very appealing.
2- Joni's Wildcat (7/2)
5- What the Chub (3/1)
10- One Red Cat (10/1)

Race 7: Starter Optional Claiming $30,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The 2, Chatt Hills, looks to be superior to the rest. She's won her last two races at Monmouth, the latter by three easy lengths. Her figures are also the best in the field by a good margin, earning an 85 and 83 in her last two. There's no reason why she can't duplicate those races again, and if she runs to form, she'll crush.
2- Chatt Hills (5/2)
6- Rowd E Allie (7/2)
4- Stormy Sky (9/2)

Race 8: Little Silver Stakes (Division 1), 3yo, Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
First of all, I just want to say that the lack of jockeys named on certain horses is ridiculous. A horse should always have a jockey named when they're entered, unless they're a main-track-only. That needed to be said.
Anyway, we know who the 2, Kawfee Fa Marfa's jockey is, and that's Paco Lopez. Not only that, her grass form is among the best in the field, earning figures of 88, 84, and 83 in her last three. She worked well before her last start at Delaware, which was unfortunately washed off the grass. Now, she gets her chance on the lawn, and she should shine.
The 3, Stormy Regatta, ran well in her first start off a two month layoff last out at Belmont. She seeks further improvement here. The 6, Royal Jewely, has been running sneakily good figures, and could upset at a bit of a price.
2- Kawfee Fa Marfa (7/2)
3- Stormy Regatta (3/1)
6- Royal Jewely (8/1)


Race 9: Starter Allowance $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I was un"shore" as to who to go with here: the 1, Bull Ensign, or the 3, Candy Portena. While Bull Ensign's last race was very impressive on paper, seeing as he made up 33 lengths, I am dubious as to its legitimacy. This is mainly because that was in an off-the-grass event, with horses who may not have been in their element. Candy Portena, on the other hand, has good figures, but earned his lone career win with a loose, easy lead. I will give the slight edge to Bull Ensign, as he made a good closing rally two starts back, against a more honest field. I still expect him to make a strong closing bid at the end, a bid that will hopefully be a winning one.
1- Bull Ensign (5/2)
3- Candy Portena (3/1)
4- Demand (6/1)

Race 10: Little Silver Stakes (Division 2), 3yo, Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll go with the horse taking the biggest drop in class: the 6, Pine Needles. She was most recently ninth in the Belmont Oaks, behind the brilliant Lady Eli. She earned a figure of 93 in that race, better than anyone in the field has ever done. Now, she moves down into this listed stakes, where she has a big class edge, plus the riding of Joe Bravo. At a 5/2 morning line, she should be a realistic price, and hopefully that will guide her toward victory.
The 2, Isabella Sings, was dismal last out, but had solid form before that. We'll see if she is able to rebound in here. The 8, Kitten's Roar, gets Paco Lopez in the saddle, and trainer Chad Brown is 50% this year at Monmouth.
6- Pine Needles (5/2)
2- Isabella Sings (5/1)
8- Kitten's Roar (3/1)

Race 11: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
My pick to wrap things up before Haskell week starts is the 3, Well Up. In her last race, she closed from thirteen lengths out of it to run a respectable third, beaten only a head for second. She earned a sharply improved figure of 61 in that spot, and further improvement is definitely a possibility.
The 9, Silver Bouquet, also made an impressive rally from the back of the pack last out, however, trainer Stephen diMuro is a chilly 0-20 at the meet. The 4, Kellyslittlesecret, makes her third start off the layoff, and worked well in preparation for this spot.
3- Well Up (4/1)
9- Silver Bouquet (3/1)
4- Kellyslittlesecret (5/1)




The first race Sunday is 12:50 PM EDT. One more day of racing until the Haskell!!!

July 25, 2015: Picks and Analysis

We are one week away from the Haskell. Twelve races will highlight today's card, including the running of the grade 3 Jersey Shore Stakes. Now, I am a firm believer that this race should be moved back to Independence Day weekend. That way, it would be four weeks after the Woody Stephens at Belmont, and four weeks before the Amsterdam at Saratoga. But I digress.

Race 1: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 2, Proven Warrior, looks like the obvious sort, and that's why I'm going against him. His brisnet figures look to be among the best in the bunch, running up to a 98 in his last three. However, I'll be taking a shot against him, because of that huge class drop. David Jacobson claimed him out of his last race for $20,000. He's now dropping him in for $6,000 one start later, after running a solid fourth for $20k. Now, that drop may not mean much, and he'll win going away, but I'm taking a shot against. Especially when you consider Proven Warrior will be a very low-priced favorite, it makes sense.
I'll take the 1, Palm Island, instead. His figures are the second-best in the field, earning a 77, 80, and 82 in his last three. Trainer Claudio Gonzalez has improved his winning percentage to 11%, as his barn continues to heat up. Should Proven Warrior not fire, Palm Island is the most likely winner.
1- Palm Island (3/1)
4- Where's That Cat (7/2)
2- Proven Warrior (1/1)

Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll go with the 5, No More Strippers. His form is consistently the best in the field, earning figures of 80, 83, and 88 in his last three. Not many horses in this race can pull that off; One For Don ran a good race back in June, but that was also his lone start in the barn of Jorge Navarro. Brahman's last race looks very fluky. English Manor is once again on the outside, after being hung wide throughout in his last start. When all this is considered, it becomes obvious to pick the consistent runner. That horse is No More Strippers.
5- No More Stripers (7/2)
8- English Manor (3/1)
4- Hershyslitethepowr (10/1)

Race 3: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
My pick here is the 2, Money Game. In her last start, at the n/w1x allowance level, she roared up the rail late, narrowly missing by 1/2 length while earning a figure of 92. She's earned mid-80s figures before, so that race was hardly a fluke. Her late speed is also strong, so a repeat of that strong closing rally is likely.
The 6, Misszippityslewda, was inexplicably flat in her last race. However, that race was over an off track; she may improve on a fast surface. The 4, Flashy Zee, came from off the pace to win at the $10,000 level last out, running a sharply improved figure.
2- Money Game (2/1)
6- Misszippityslewda (3/1)
4- Flashy Zee (4/1)

Race 4: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 4, Diana's Daisy in this spot. Her form over the winter at Gulfstream was sharp, earning figures up to a 77 at this level. She's making her second start off the layoff here, after running fifth over the synthetic at Presque Isle. She's been working well to prepare for this race, and trainer Michael Rogers hits at an impressive 26% with horses moving from synthetic to grass.
The 1, Humantala, won at this level two starts back, and has the recency edge that Diana's Daisy lacks. The 2, Set on Salsa, has been in the mix in all of her races here at Monmouth this year, and hopes for a breakthrough today.
4- Diana's Daisy (3/1)
1- Humantla (5/2)
2- Set on Salsa (4/1)

Race 5: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 5, Invasion Point, is shipping in from Belmont here, and looks very tough to beat. His last two figures, of 85 and 86, are superior to the recent form of anyone else. He's making his first start off the claim for David Jacobson, who hits at a strong 28% with horses on that angle. His late speed is also among the best in the field, suggesting that he'll be blowing by the rest of the field while they're tiring late.
The 8, Keepin it Zeal, dominated a field of n/w2 claimers in his last race. Further improvement would mean likely victory. The 6, Category, was second at this level after getting involved in a duel. The pace projects to be fast again, so his best hope is to try and rate off the leaders.
5- Invasion Point (3/1)
8- Keepin it Zeal (9/2)
6- Category (8/1)

Race 6: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
My pick will be the 8, Killer Crossover. In his last grass start, here at Monmouth back in May, he rallied strongly down the stretch, finishing second by three lengths. He shipped to Delaware next, only to run third in an off-the-grass event. Now, he's back on grass, and back at Monmouth, where he ran some of the best races in the field. I'll take him to rebound with the surface switch.
The 1, Breakeven Analysis, steps back down into claiming company, which he should find easier than allowances. The 3, Omarvelous, had run well on grass at Gulfstream earlier in the year, before moving to synthetic for his last few. Returning to grass should be what he needs.
8- Killer Crossover (5/1)
1- Breakeven Analysis (5/2)
3- Omarvelous (6/1)

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Just about everyone in this race who has good form is stretching out, making it a difficult race to handicap. I'll go with the 4, Park Ranger, based off his solid first start. After being heavily bet, he broke slowly and was rushed up into contention. He then tired out, but still earned an 83 in his first race. Now, he's stretching out to a route, which, based on his pedigree, may suit him better. I project he'll improve a lot going into this spot.
The 6, Have a Good Laugh, also has good figures, but an ugly 0-10 career record. I'm against him until he proves that he can win. The 7, Smooth Talkin Tom, has been steadily improving in his last three starts, and has a chance to get into the exotic spots at a price.
4- Park Ranger (5/2)
6- Have a Good Laugh (6/1)
7- Smooth Talkin Tom (12/1)

Race 8: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Two horses stand out in here. The 2, Hudson Miracle, has earned around an 80 in all three of his recent starts, including two near-misses at this level. The 9, Call Wil, ran an 85 two starts back, and figures to be on or near the pace. I give the slight edge to Hudson Miracle in this spot, considering his late speed has been much stronger than the rest of the horses in the field. He also gets a slight jockey upgrade, from Joe Bravo to Orlando Bocachica. Furthermore, he gets a new trainer: Marcus Vitali, who has been having a strong season with grass runners, and is 18% when training a horse for the first time.
2- Hudson Miracle (5/2)
9- Call Wil (3/1)
8- Wally Did It (4/1)

Race 9: Allowance (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 1 Mile
The late pick 4 begins with a single. The 1, Amblin Easy, has earned above a 90 in all three of her most recent starts, something that no one else in the field has done even once. She's taking a big drop in class, down from a third in the Monmouth Beach Stakes in her last dirt outing. Against a rather weak field of Jersey-bred allowance horses, she should crush.
The 3, She's Hot Wired, is always in the mix, but her 2-22 career record is hard to swallow. She's a candidate for the exotic spots, for "shore", but not for the win. The 4, Wildly Good Lookin, blew away a field of Jersey-bred n/w1x allowance horses last out, showing a dramatic improvement in form. We'll see if she can keep it up.
1- Amblin Easy (4/5)
3- She's Hot Wired (6/1)
4- Wildly Good Lookin (9/2)

Race 10: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
I'll take the 2, Claiming Victory. She wasn't great in her last race, at the n/w2x allowance level. However, now she's taking a drop in class to the claiming level, and her figure of 76 is very competitive in this race. I think this'll be the level where she'll thrive.
2- Claiming Victory (5/2)
4- Taty's Gold (5/1)
5- Girl From Glan (7/2)

Race 11: Jersey Shore Stakes, 3yo, 6 Furlongs
It's hard to get past the 3, Blame Jim, in the Saturday feature. His figures make him an absolute standout; he's run a 98, 95, and 104. He narrowly wired a field of n/w2x allowance horses last out at Belmont, before being run down by the older Noble Cornerstone. He's facing no one of that caliber here, so with a clear lead, he should be home free.
The 2, Joe Franklin, dominated a n/w1x allowance field in his last start, and makes his first start in the Jacobson barn. The 6, Bluegrass Singer, was burned out in the lead in the Carry Back last out, and may find the pace more to his liking.
3- Blame Jim (7/5)
2- Joe Franklin (4/1)
6- Bluegrass Singer (9/2)

Race 12: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll conclude the afternoon with the 5, Hereosaurus Rex. He's been close in three races at this level this season, and all of his figures have been in the 70s. He figures to have a solid edge over the rest of the field, and I'll look toward him to get out.
The 9, Notional Romance, steps down from the n/w3 level, and has sharp late speed. The 2, Just Ace, narrowly broke his maiden against Jersey-breds last out.
5- Hereosaurus Rex (9/2)
9- Notional Romance (7/2)
2- Just Ace (5/1)

July 24, 2015: Picks and Analysis

It may be opening day at Saratoga, but that doesn't mean that the party stops at Monmouth Park. Ten races are on tap for the Friday card: the last Friday card before Haskell week. Here's what I think will happen:

Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The name of this field's game is inconsistency. No one in this field has shown steadily great form, while none of them are consistently mediocre, either. To make things more complicated, the amount of late speed that all of these runners show varies greatly from race to race. As such, it's easy to designate this one as a crapshoot.
I'll take my best hack at it, and go with the 1, Chocolate Wildcat. He had shown good form on the dirt as a two-year-old last year, before disappointing on the grass over the winter at Gulfstream. Now, he moves back to dirt, where he has early speed from the inside. Trainer Jason Servis also hits at a solid 23% rate with horses off a long layoff. I can't call him a "shore" thing in here, but he's a likely winner.
The 6, Cloudy River, was third at this level last out, and makes his debut for trainer Michael Moore. The 5, Jimmy Connors, disappointed at this level in his last race, but his form was good prior to then, and he may have needed a race.
1- Chocolate Wildcat (5/2)
6- Cloudy River (7/2)
5- Jimmy Connors (8/5)

Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I'll take the 3, Allie Sweet. She last ran at Parx at this level, and got away to an awkward start. She recovered to battle for the early lead, but didn't quit that badly and wound up fourth, beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Her brisnet figure in that race was a 70, which she earns virtually every time out. If nothing else, she's consistent. With a clean break this time, she'll be more forwardly placed without pressure to get up near the lead, and that means that she should have enough left for a winning stretch drive.
The 5, Callmewhachuwant, stretches out to a route from a sprint; she ran up to an 80 sprinting, and will hope to stretch out that good form. The 4, Single Handed, has the most early speed, and hopes to regain her good winter form.
3- Allie Sweet (3/1)
5- Callmewhachuwant (6/1)
4- Single Handed (2/1)

Race 3: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
In a field full of bad maiden claimers, the 7, Key d'Oro, looks the least bad. Her grass figures have all been in the high 60s, making her one of the few fillies in the race to pull that off. She also has the dangerous combination of trainer Marcus Vitali and jockey Orlando Bocachica. The former, especially, has been dangerous with grass horses. A slight improvement--or even holding steady at her current form--should be good enough.
The 3, Royal Stage, showed lots of early speed sprinting, and hopes to stretch that out to a route. The 4, Waki Girl, ran a field-best figure of 69 in her last race, and was caught late after making a premature move on the turn. With better timing, she may be able to pull it off.
7- Key d'Oro (5/2)
4- Waki Girl (3/1)
3- Royal Stage (3/1)

Race 4: Claiming $7,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I won't lie and say I'm in love with him; you can't find a better horse than Better Man. Breaking from the 6 post, this horse is a standout. His last three figures are 84, 82, and 70, which are the best in the field by a lot. He's also got the best late speed figures in the race by a longshot. While the rest of the field will be tiring out, he'll be accelerating away from the rest of the pack.
The 1, Alpha Dude, was second in back-to-back routes before winning at a sprint, he showed good form while routing. The 7, Ausable River, led late last time out before being caught; he had drastic improvement in that spot.
6- Better Man (2/1)
1- Alpha Dude (5/2)
7- Ausable River (4/1)

Race 5: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 6, Lighthouse Sound, has already shown a great affinity for the grass here at Monmouth, winning his first two starts of the year here. His figures were already the best in the field, earning a 93 in his last race. Now, he's making his first start for Jamie Ness, who claimed him out of that last start. Ness hits at a very high 36% with horses first off the claim. With horses who stand out like Lighthouse Sound, it's close to a "shore" thing.
The 5, Yari, was third and fourth at the n/w2x allowance optional claiming level, and now takes a drop down to straight claimers. His figures were strong at that level. The 7, Mythical Man, ran big last out before being caught by Lighthouse Sound late, and is a strong candidate to round out the exotics.
6- Lighthouse Sound (3/1)
5- Yari (5/2)
7- Mythical Man (5/1)

Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Two horses jump out in here: the 2, Loverbil, and the 3, Doddsprivatelabel. Loverbil has won two out of three races this year at Monmouth, and is coming off a come-from-behind score as the favorite in a Jersey-bred allowance. Doddsprivatelabel is coming in from Parx, and he's won his last two races. Their figures are similar: Loverbil has earned a 96, 93, and 97 in his last three, while Doddsprivatelabel has run a 93, 91, and 96. I give the slight advantage to Doddsprivatelabel, as I think his late speed is slightly better than that of Loverbil. However, win money should go to the horse who's the better value, as their chances of winning are, in my book, essentially equal.
3- Doddsprivatelabel (2/1)
2- Loverbil (3/2)
4- Cho Time (7/2)

Race 7: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
My pick to begin the late pick 4 is the 2, No Tunes. She's shipping in from Belmont, where she was a respectable fourth and third, respectively, while grass sprinting. Her figures, however, are the best in this field, earning an 80 in all three races. I'll take her to score against the rest of these.
The 1, Shimmering Cara, makes her third start off the layoff, and trainer Terri Pompay hits at 26% with those types of horses. The 3, Have a Taste, ran a respectable 76 in her lone career grass race, which was a victory. That figure should get her in the exotics, and some slight improvement makes her a win candidate.
2- No Tunes (4/1)
1- Shimmering Cara/1A- Wildcat Gaze (7/2)
3- Have a Taste (5/1)

Race 8: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
It's not easy picking an 0-12 maiden, but in a race like this, the 1, Play it Again, is the most likely winner despite that record. He made up some mild ground in his last start, against similar competition. He started off eight lengths off the lead, but made some mild progress to lose by only about six. He earned a figure of 69 in that race, one of the best numbers in the field. His late speed is also terrific, which gives him the edge he may need.
The 3, Scobeyville, hasn't hit the board in six races, but his figures indicate that he may have found a spot where he can win. The 2, Cayden Can, was fourth at this level in his debut, and seeks to improve here.
1- Play it Again (8/1)
3- Scobeyville (4/1)
2- Cayden Can (3/1)

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
My play here will be the 6, Oak Bluffs. He's already won a grass sprint at Monmouth this season, with a strong closing rally off a fast pace. He'll be making his first start since that May 30 effort, and he's worked at Delaware to prepare for this spot. Trainer Jamie Ness hits at a sharp 27% with horses off that long of a layoff. It all adds up to a solid play.
The 1A, Fast Flying Rumor, won the Select Stakes last out with an easy gate-to-wire trip. No doubt he has ability, but he may have a harder time getting that kind of pace in here. The 5, Deterrent, gave way in his last race after setting the pace. He'll have to show more guts to win this race.
6- Oak Bluffs (2/1)
1- One Buck Roma/1A- Fast Flying Rumor (5/2)
5- Deterrent (5/2)

Race 10: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I know that the 3, Start Jumping, is taking a major class drop here, all the way down to the $5,000 level. However, it's difficult to ignore the fact that he's the best horse in the race. He earned an 86 in his last race, the best in the field by thirteen points. He's shown ability at routes before, and in that last race, he was compromised by a slow start. After that break, he was rushed up to be near the pace, only to flatten out. Now, I'll concede he's the most likely winner, but he's "shore" to be overbet, and I'm guardedly optimistic about his chances to win at this point.
If Start Jumping doesn't fire, the 7, Panama Hat, looks good. He made a strong closing rally to get third in his last race, earning a figure of 72. The 8, Bo Badger, led late before being caught in his last race.
3- Start Jumping (1/1)
7- Panama Hat (8/1)
8- Bo Badger (6/1)

The first race on Friday is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!

Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/19/15

A star-crossed running of the Miss Woodford was the scheduled headliner on this Sunday card at Monmouth. Here's what else happened:

Race 1 (Gorgeous Sunrise, Charles Carlesimo-Abel Castellano, 1:11.0)
More proof that, despite this blog's name, there's no such thing as a "shore" thing. Musket Mary, who looked like an absolute cinch, and was bet like it, couldn't run down Gorgeous Sunrise late. That one stalked the pace two-wide, then moved around the turn and wound up getting the jump on Musket Mary. Placement is key, jockeys.

Race 2 (Hunter Grey, Roberto Calvo-Inoel Beato, 1:05.0)
Nineteenth time's the charm for Hunter Grey. He rated off the leaders, then moved three-wide and rolled past complacent leader Bank Fraud. Hunter Grey may have been 0-18 going into this race, but I think Bank Fraud will be 0-180 before he wins a race.

Race 3 (Super Garces, Luis Carvajal-Wilmer Garcia, 1:12.2)
Once very likely winner Yourthekingjimmy scratched, the public zoned in on Full Pads. He was bet down to a really low 4/5, and coughed up a big lead late. Super Garces sat the great trip off that fast, clear leader.

Race 4 (Elmra, Mark Hennig-Paco Lopez, 1:04.3)
The public guessed that Elmra, the queen of inconsistency, would be on today, and bet her to 6/5. As it turned out, they were right. She managed to clear to the early lead from post 11, and then shook the rest of the field off to win it in a laugher. Now, even if I knew that she would rebound like that, there's no way that I could have taken 6/5 on her to win. So either way, I would've lost. Isn't that terrible?

Race 5 (I Ain't Waitin', Mike Trombetta-Paco Lopez, 1:36.3)
I picked two 4/1 shots on top today, and I bet exactly none of them to win. I'm such a genius.
I Ain't Waitin, as winners are bound to do, sat the trip, rating off the leaders and angling wide around the turn. However, he really had to grind past leaders Brad and the Gang and Talent Show to get the victory. The latter horse was particularly tenacious.

Race 6 (Saturday Special, Jorge Navarro-Carlos Marquez, 1:41.2)
If there was a Monmouth Park championship race--and as I will eventually get to, there should be--Saturday Special would have to be in it. He won his third race of the Monmouth season, rating off leader Gypsy Baron, then strolling on by to win. He's a pretty cool horse.

Race 7 (Cut to Order, Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, 1:33.2)
Lasso managed to get to the lead--unlike in his disappointing last effort--but Cut to Order and Cement Clement collared him coming into the stretch. Cement Clement pulled off a colossal hang job, but Cut to Order hung in there and prevailed by a half-length. Not every day that a Ness-Centeno horse pays $12.60.

Race 8 (Been Here Before, Kiaran McLaughlin-Abel Castellano, 1:37.3)
Tidal Surge, who won her debut at Delaware very easily last out, could not have run any worse here. She had absolutely nothing going around the turn, and lost by sixteen lengths. Hopefully, she's not injured.
Meanwhile, Been Here Before angled out around the turn, and grinded past leader Tiger Moth to score.

Race 9 (Cali Thirty Seven, Joe Orseno-Andre Worrie, 1:34.0)
Neither Orseno nor Worrie have been having especially great seasons, but they teamed up here with Cali Thirty Seven, who held off the challenge of Forest Funds the entire way around. Indeed, Forest Funds was no further than a neck from Cali Thirty Seven at any point during the race, yet never passed her.

Race 10 (Fusaichi Red, George Weaver-Orlando Bocachica, 1:10.1)
What was shaping up as a fun stakes race was marred at the quarter pole, when Calypso Run clipped heels and unseated Trevor McCarthy. The filly was fine, but McCarthy was sent to Monmouth Medical Center, complaining of a severe headache. Here's hoping for a speedy recovery for McCarthy, who is currently fourth in the jockey standings.
Meanwhile, Fusaichi Red took advantage of an absurdly fast pace (which included a :43.4 half mile), and zoomed down the stretch to win it going away. However, I'm convinced this has less to do with Fusaichi Red's ability, and everything to do with that pace. We'll see where she goes from here.

Race 11 (Class and Cash, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:02.2)
Once Tax Deduction scratched, you might as well have picked a horse at random. Some people picked 3/5 shot Class and Cash, and he rewarded them nicely. That's a riding triple for Paco Lopez. He's in first place in the standings, with 27 more winners than the second-place jockey. That's unbelievable.

That wraps up the racing week here at Monmouth. Only one week to go until Haskell week...

Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/18/15

Want to know what happened on Saturday at Monmouth? Look no further.

Race 1 (Stately Defence, Marcus Vitali-Nik Juarez, 1:10.3)
Bettors watching this one had to be confused early on, as both Vitali horses--Stately Defence and More Than Special--dueled with each other the entire way around. However, they were so much better than anyone else, they ran 1-2 anyway. Stately Defence, in particular, drew away to win by six easy lengths.

Race 2 (Sweet on Smokey, Kathleen Demasi-Paco Lopez, 1:39.3)
There was a scary moment at the start of this race, with Ka Buki Rose falling down not long after the gates opened. To my knowledge, both Ka Buki Rose and jockey Angel Serpa emerged unscathed.
As for the rest of the field, Sweet on Smokey galloped past the rest on the turn and won by six lengths under a hand ride. If she had been asked more down the stretch, it could've been a much larger margin. Fortunately, if you bet her, you got paid no matter what the margin was.

Race 3 (Kinsley, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:42.4)
Favored Kinsley burned out Sudden Snowstorm down the backstretch, then rolled around the turn and won going away. Nothing to it.

Race 4 (Drago's Best, Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, 1:02.4)
The first-time gelding angle sometimes gets overlooked, but make no mistake, it can be dangerous. Drago's Best was running as a gelding for the first time, and held off the menacing shadow of Pool Winner the whole way around to get the job done. Astute bettors who noted the "ultimate equipment change" were rewarded with a $9.20 win payoff.

Race 5 (Strike Em Down, Greg Sacco-Gabriel Saez, 1:39.1)
It took fifteen tries, but Strike Em Down finally found a field he could beat. Here, the pace-setters tired themselves out, and Strike Em Down rolled by them on the turn to win by five easy lengths.

Race 6 (Gottcha Blessin, Tony Wilson-Jose Ferrer, 1:46.1)
All aboard the merry-go-round! Gottcha Blessin, Video Mov, and Mi Amore made up the top three the entire way around, and nobody passed them. Yawn.

Race 7 (Lucky Balladier, J. Thompson-Abel Castellano, 1:43.1)
Lucky Balladier was bet down from 9/5 to 6/5 in the last flash, which is never a great thing. He didn't really run like a 6/5 shot, however, as he sat a beautiful trip off the leaders on the inside, angled wide in the stretch, and then had to grind past 23/1 shot Bold Runner. Still, a win remains a win.

Race 8 (Golden Earrings, Pat McBurney-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.3)
Despite her superiority over the field, and a fast pace to run at, 3/5 favorite Fakery could do no better than third. Golden Earrings took advantage, however, rallying strongly around the turn to draw off to victory. 33/1 Huachuca snuck up the inside to score second, and beat out Fakery for that spot.

Race 9 (Red Letter, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:42.3)
Another race that was over very quickly, with Red Letter jumping out to a clear lead and skipping home unchallenged. Rhythm Queen rallied strongly on the outside to score second and be the best of the rest.

Race 10 (Early Entry, Kathleen O'Connell-Jose Ferrer, 1:41.3)
Early Entry answered the question of "can he stretch out?" with a resounding "yes". He rated off the fast pace by Secretive, made his move around the far turn, and held off all his rivals. Just Call Kenny went off at 3/2 and just missed to finish second. Considering the pace was a crawl turning for home, that narrow miss may not be as impressive as it looks on paper.

Race 11 (Nonna's Boy, Todd Pletcher-Chris DeCarlo, 1:41.0)
Nonna's Boy made his grass debut count, winning the Lamplighter Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion. The final time of 1:41.0 is also pretty impressive, and certainly makes one wonder if he's found a home on grass. We'll see if he shows up in another stakes next. The Hall of Fame Stakes, at Saratoga on August 7, comes to mind.

Race 12 (No Brody No, Pat McBurney-Abel Castellano, 1:46.4)
Pat McBurney had won only one race all year going into Saturday. This race marked his second win of the day. You can't explain some of this stuff.
His winner here, No Brody No, rated off the leaders, then got into a long, long drive and eventually overtook leading Splitter to get the job done.

July 19, 2015: Picks and Analysis

It's an 11 race card on Haskell Car Show Day at Monmouth Park. As a matter of fact, we are only two weeks away from the aforementioned Haskell, featuring the great American Pharoah. It looks as if he will have up to eight challengers in that race. Good stuff!

Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy
It's gettin' hot in here...

Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'm not exactly saying anything Earth-shattering here, but the 3, Musket Mary, is unbeatable in the opener. Her last three brisnet figures are 93, 83, and 83. That means that her worst over her last three is five points better than anyone else's last three. This filly may give American Pharoah a run for his money as the shortest-priced favorite of the season.
3- Musket Mary (4/5)
1- I Just Wanna Win (3/1)
5- House Red (9/2)

Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
You know, I looked at the entries for today's card, and I saw there was a $10,000 maiden claiming for older horses here. Then, I saw that the next race is the exact same thing, only at six furlongs. My mind remains boggled by that, and it may be a while yet before it gets unboggled.
Anyway, this is a wide-open race here, and is one of the few maiden claiming races all season that is fun to handicap. I wound up settling on the 2, Zeal Genius. At this level last out, he led almost the entire way around, only to get caught down the stretch. He still improved sharply in that race, moving up six points. He's the only one in the field to consistently run figures in the upper-60s, without being a chronic maiden. I'll take a shot.
The 5, Malekith, ran solidly in his first start off the layoff, and only lost to Zeal Genius by 1/2 length. He may improve with a race in him. The 8, Hunter Grey, ran figures in the 70s over the winter at Aqueduct, but sports an unsightly 0-18 lifetime record.
2- Zeal Genius (5/2)
5- Malekith (3/1)
8- Hunter Grey (8/1)

Race 3: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Another race, another standout. The 7, Yourthekingjimmy, looks as much of a "shore" thing as possible. His last three figures are 75, 71, and 64, which blow everyone else in the field away. He looked clear down the stretch in his last race, before being run down by Naughty Delite. However, Yourthekingjimmy was not the standout in that race like he is in this one. Here, he looks to be miles the best. I don't see him losing.
7- Yourthekingjimmy (4/5)
6- Full Pads (9/2)
3- Super Garces (8/1)

Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
A big field of twelve greets us in here. My pick is the 6, Double Desert. She was decent last out in her first race off the layoff, finishing third at this level. Her figures are all in the 70s, making her one of the best and most consistent members of the field. Her late speed is also an asset, as she figures to sit off the pace, and roll by with some of the best late speed figures in the race.
The 9, Shes Tuff as Nails, was second in that race that Double Desert also exits. This one's got a great chance as well. The 7, Sandbag, finally finds a race where she may be able to hang on near the end. Watch for her at a price.
6- Double Desert (3/1)
9- Shes Tuff as Nails (7/2)
7- Sandbag (6/1)

Race 5: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
The early pick 5 ends on a very tricky note. Pretty much anyone in this race can win it. Because of that, it helps to find a horse with something that makes them stand out a bit. The 6, I Ain't Waitin, has a few positive attributes. He's making his third start off the layoff, and ran well at Parx before that. He gets a major jockey upgrade, too, as he'll be ridden by Paco Lopez. That gives him the edge that he'll need to win this one.
The 5, Pasta Giovanni, ships up from Florida, where he ran some decent races against similar competition. The 1, How You, drops down into maiden claiming competition, which might just be the level that he needs.
6- I Ain't Waitin (3/1)
5- Pasta Giovanni (5/1)
1- How You (7/2)

Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
It's a fun field of six hard-knocking horses. My pick is the 5, Saturday Special. I know I won't get much value on him, but I do know that he absolutely demolished a similar field last out, earning a field-best figure of 94. He's got the best early speed and the best late speed in the race by far, so it should be a cruise around the track for him.
The 2, Keep the Canoli, defeated a field at the $5,000 in his last race, earning a 93. He's got a strong chance at second or third, and is a must-use in those spots. The 1, Gypsy Baron, ran third behind Joe Tess, who freaked in that race, last out. He looks to rebound off that effort.
5- Saturday Special (8/5)
2- Keep the Canoli (7/2)
1- Gypsy Baron (4/1)

Race 7: Starter Handicap, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
Another terrific field has lined up here. I'll take the classiest and fastest horse in the field: the 9, Cement Clement. He was right in the thick of things the whole way around the Elkwood Stakes last out, losing by only half a length. He earned a figure of 96 in that race, which matched his race before that. In addition, jockey Kaylia Albright comes up from Delaware just to ride him--a good sign. This horse looks like a "shore" bet.
The 1, More Zen Tea, just missed in a n/w1x allowance last out, and is an appealing prospect at 10/1. The 8, Cut to Order, hopes to wire this field, and has the speed to possibly do that again.
9- Cement Clement (5/2)
1- More Zen Tea (10/1)
8- Cut to Order (9/2)

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
A lot of horses in this field have plenty of experience in here. Somewhat ironically, I'll go with the 7, Tidal Surge, who has made only one career start. However, it was an impressive one, winning a maiden race easily at Delaware Park. Her figure in that race was a 95, which is easily the best in the field. Her late speed is also much stronger than the rest of the horses's, so she could not only win this one, but win it big. After that, who knows what she could do from here?
The 5, Miss Wilby, was third and fourth at this level this year at Monmouth. In the earlier race, she lost to eventual Delaware Oaks winner Calamity Kate. The 3, Love Came to Town, has been electrifying in sprints so far, and hopes to extend her brilliance to routes.
7- Tidal Surge (2/1)
5- Miss Wilby (6/1)
3- Love Came to Town (6/1)

Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
Much to the surprise of most people, Cali Thirty Seven ran well in her grass debut, finishing third at 41/1. Now, she makes her second grass start, in a race where she appears to be one of the best in here. Her last figure was 83. which is the best last-out figure in the field. In a very-wide open field like this one, she has the edge. Hopefully, she'll be a good price--a 9/2 morning line is promising.
The 9, Babe's Ruler, defeated a field of n/w2 claimers with an overland trip in her last race. The 10, Forest Funds, narrowly missed in her last effort, and trainer Ramon Preciado hits at 26% first off the claim.
5- Cali Thirty Seven (9/2)
9- Babe's Ruler (6/1)
10- Forest Funds (7/2)

Race 10: Miss Woodford Stakes, 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
A crack field of eleven filly sprinters has assembled for the Miss Woodford Stakes. Miss Woodford, for those who may not know, won the 1883 Monmouth Oaks, and was considered the premier female horse of her time. She was inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame in 1967.
Anyway, it's a very tough race in here. I'll go with the Florida shipper, the 2, Sky Gold. In her last race, at Gulfstream, she easily defeated a n/w1x allowance field by three lengths, earning a figure of 91. While that places her in the mix with a few others, what makes that race notable is that it was her first start off a five-month layoff. When breaking her maiden in January, she earned a figure of 97, which places her at the top of this bunch. She's got a good inside post, a jockey who knows the track, and a rating style coupled with solid late speed. I've tabbed her to bring home the money here.
My rooting interests lie with the 1, Bustin Out, who defeated a field of Jersey-breds in insanely easy fashion last out. I'm not "shore" if she's fast enough to run with these, but I have no doubt she could've run faster if she had been urged in her last race. I'll be pulling for her. The 5, Thepartyneverends, regressed after getting caught in a duel in her last outing. She's shown a lot of potential in the past, however, so don't count her out.
2- Sky Gold (4/1)
5- Thepartyneverends (7/2)
1- Bustin Out (8/1)

Race 11: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
You might as well throw a dart at this field. My dart landed on the 6, Tax Deduction, who led almost the whole way around at Churchill in his grass debut last out. He should find a shorter distance more to his liking.
6- Tax Deduction (7/2)
4- Class and Cash (2/1)
7- Charlesbrecknridge (5/1)

The first race Sunday is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!

Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/17/15

Here's what happened on Friday's card at Monmouth:

Race 1 (North Ocean, Jane Cibelli-Nik Juarez, 1:45.0)
North Ocean was challenged on the lead three separate times: once by Salisbury Knight, then by D'Marin, then again by Dancing Lion. North Ocean actually lost the lead to the latter rival turning for home, but re-rallied and got back up to win it. Tough horse, he is.

Race 2 (Colonel Jordan, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:46.3)
Colonel Jordan held a slim early lead, while being pressured on all sides. None of those other rivals managed to hang on, however, and that enabled Colonel Jordan to draw off to an easy score. So in this case, it wasn't really about Colonel Jordan being tough and hanging in there, so much as it was about everyone else fading. Keep that in mind.

Race 3 (Full Salute, Eddie Plesa-Gabriel Saez, 1:04.1)
It was a wide-open maiden race here, and any angle you could get helped. Here, the angle that "experience is important" paid off here, with Full Salute drawing off to victory in his second career outing. He was involved in a three-way duel with JB's Big Red and Silverado Star early on, but just kept on going. Those two horses, by the way, finished sixth and seventh.

Race 4 (Luckystrikedelcoco, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:44.3)
I assume that Christian Santiago-Reyes thought the finish line was on the far turn or something. His mount, Collect on Seven, made a huge move around the far turn that could have been a winning one if timed better. Alas, that 60/1 shot moved way too early, and flattened out down the stretch.
Meanwhile, Luckystrikedelcoco picked up those pieces late, then held off the late onslaught of Archemist and Caroline's Spirit.

Race 5 (Master of Humor, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:43.2)
The stronger half of the entry, Puget Sound, scratched. However, it didn't matter, as Puget Sound rallied two-wide late and ran down clear leader El Chivo Viejo late.

Race 6 (Kent's Baby Girl, Stacy Machiz-Gabriel Saez, 1:43.3)
It was a really long time coming, but Kent's Baby Girl finally managed to win a race. She made her move around the turn, and won by three widening lengths. My pick, Bellatara, went off at 36/1, but was a total non-factor and finished sixth. That's the way it goes sometimes...

Race 7 (Gingge, Tony Wilson-John Soto, 1:11.1)
Gingge was 16/1 to win, but the odds of her winning by nine lengths in a respectable final time, like she did, were probably in the neighborhood of 16,000/1. Yet, she won her first career race is absolutely dominating fashion, after chasing leader Hazy Daisy. We'll see if this filly has a future.

Race 8 (Palace Gate, Marcus Vitali-Nik Juarez, 1:44.0)
It was essentially a two-horse race all the way around, with Palace Gate and Big Tomatoes dueled all the way around. Palace Gate eventually shook off his inferior rival and won by a length and a half. Pirradazis made a strong rally from the back late and finished second.

Race 9 (Thirteen Arrows, Larry Jones-Kerwin Jones, 1:09.1)
Thirteen Arrows hadn't run in eleven months, but you wouldn't know it by the way she ran. She crushed the opposition, never tired from the fast pace she set herself, and won in the very impressive final time of 1:09.1. Hopefully, we'll see her in stakes competition next. If she keeps running like that, she could win a few of those, for "shore".

Race 10 (Weather Permitting, John Pimental-Daniel Centeno, 1:42.2)
It was a big effort from Weather Permitting to close the show today. She rallied from way, way, behind, as far as eleven lengths back with a quarter mile to go. Yet, she rolled down the stretch and ran past the tiring Jojo's Gal and Confrontational late to win it. I picked the entire late pick 3 on top, paying a respectable $26 for 50 cents.

July 18, 2015: Picks and Analysis

Twelve races greet us at Monmouth Park on Saturday. It's not the best card of the season, for "shore", but at least there are only 15 days until the Haskell!

Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I will begin the proceedings this afternoon with the 5, More Than Special. She may have been beaten by ten lengths in her last effort, but she still earned a solid brisnet figure of 76, while outrunning a few of her rivals in here. She's also trained by the hot Marcus Vitali, and is the only one to run a figure as good as a 76 in recent times.
The 6, Stately Defence, is the other Vitali entrant, and turned in a lightning-fast three furlong workout a few days before this race. The 1, Shore Getaway, was third at this level last out.
5- More Than Special (9/5)
6- Stately Defence (3/2)
1- Shore Getaway (7/2)

Race 2: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The 2, Sweet on Smokey, looks like the best in here. Her last three figures are 78, 72, and 83. That makes her the only one out of the bunch to run above a 70 in her last three races. Furthermore, she's got good late speed, en"shore"ing that she'll hang on late in the game, while the rest of the field starts to tire out. She's the most likely one to round out the early double.
2- Sweet on Smokey (3/1)
3- Liberty Lady (4/1)
4- Ryabinka (6/1)

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Most of the runners in here are either unproven on dirt, or stretching out to a route from a sprint. The only one in here proven in a dirt route is the 6, Kinsley. In her last dirt effort, back at Belmont in September, she ran a figure of 65. On the surface, that may look dismal, however, it's the best that anyone in the field has done on dirt. She ran a 76 in the race before that, which would win this race very easily. That race in a grass sprint at Belmont last out should have gotten her into form for this one.
The 1, Lady Anita, has shown the most grass ability out of anyone in the field, and trainer Michelle Nevin hits at 24% with horses going grass-to-dirt. The 3, Delightful, comes from Shug's barn, and has been working well to prepare for this spot.
6- Kinsley (5/2)
1- Lady Anita (2/1)
3- Delightful (4/1)

Race 4: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
I'll take a horse who looks to be improving strongly: the 7, Pool Winner. His last two races have been dominating--winning back-to-back grass sprints, while earning a figure of 90 in his last race. He looks like a horse improving in a big way, and I expect another winning effort from him today.
The 3, Slamarama, ran well at the Gulfstream winter meet, but hasn't raced since then. The 2, Drago's Best, was dull at this level last out, but ran well prior to that race.
7- Pool Winner (5/2)
3- Slamarama (4/1)
2- Drago's Best (9/2)

Race 5: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
My pick here is the 6, Strike Em Down. He's stepping down into maiden claiming competition, and was doing well in maiden races prior to his dull last effort. His figures of 83 and 81 in those races before last out would blow this field away. Even the figure of 72 earned last out is the best in the field. He may be 0-14, but it's not a great field, and he can definitely get the job done here.
If Strike Em Down goes down, the 1, Warrior's Instinct, is the most likely winner. His two dirt races are among the best in the field. The 7, Star Actor, has been running three steadily improving races.
6- Strike Em Down (8/5)
1- Warrior's Instinct (3/1)
7- Star Actor (5/2)

Race 6: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
In a race like this, it pays to have a horse with good form. Such is the situation with the 2, Mi Amore. He's won his last two races here at Monmouth, earning figures of 77 and 78 in those two races. Furthermore, his running style has him rating off the pace, then drawing away and showing much more late speed than anyone else in the field. I would imagine that is what's going to happen here, too. That'll make it three wins in a row.
The 7, Gottcha Blessin, won his last race at this level easily, earning a best-in-field figure of 83. The 8, Video Mov, drops in claiming price, and is a strong contender for the exotic spots.
2- Mi Amore (5/2)
7- Gottcha Blessin (4/1)
8- Video Mov (7/2)

Race 7: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Jersey Shore 6 begins with a horse who, from a figures standpoint, looks like a stand-out. The 5, Lucky Balladier, has earned a 74 and a 72 in his last two races. No other horse in the field is able to consistently pull off figures in that range. He's also got a running style that would enable him to sit off of the leaders, then roll by them when asked.
5- Lucky Balladier (5/2)
8- Finito (10/1)
11- Beau Jangles (4/1)

Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Before her last race, I said that it would be difficult for the 5, Fakery, to lose. As it turns out, she won that race, but was disqualified. Since that race, the horse she lost to two starts back, Bustin Out, dominated a field of n/w1x Jersey-bred allowance horses, verifying her class. Just like last time, Fakery's figures are superior to the rest, and she also gets a jockey upgrade to Nik Juarez. Unless she gets disqualified again, she won't be losing this one.
5- Fakery (3/2)
1- Golden Earrings (9/2)
6- Huachuca (6/1)

Race 9: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
In her last race, the 1, Love That Kelly, was much the best. She was stuck in traffic the whole way around, had nowhere to go throughout, yet still made up ten lengths and missed by 3/4 of a length. She earned a figure of 80 for that effort. As long as she gets a clear trip, you have to figure that she'll improve by a few points off that tough last race, which would put her in the winner's circle.
The 4, Carey Princess, ran well this winter at Tampa, but hasn't made a start since April. The 5, Very Playful, narrowly missed at this level in her last start.
1- Love That Kelly (7/2)
4- Carey Princess (5/1)
5- Very Playful (4/1)

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I'll take the horse with the best recent route form, that being the 1, Dudeman. In his last race, at this level and distance, he was defeated by stakes winning Irish You Well. Even so, he earned a great figure of 94, with is compounded by two more figures above 90 in three of his last four. Nobody else in this field has pulled that off. He looks as if he should win as much the best.
The 4, Just Call Kenny, makes his first start at a route this year. He had shown good form routing last year, and hopes to recover that ability in this spot. Make "shore" to use him in multi-race bets, but he may be overbet in the win pools. The 7, Early Entry, is also stretching out, but had shown good late speed in all of his races. That indicates that he may enjoy the extra distance. We'll see.
1- Dudeman (3/1)
4- Just Call Kenny (9/5)
7- Early Entry (10/1)

Race 11: Lamplighter Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This race is made interesting by the presence of not one, but two Mike Repole/Todd Pletcher entries. The 1, Nonna's Boy, is coming off a third-place finish in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont. The 7, Dontbetwithbruno, finished fourth in the Pegasus in his most recent effort. It's not a super-strong grass field, so it's entirely possible that either one of these two can win. However, they're almost guaranteed to be overbet, mostly because of name recognition. Because of that, I'll pass.
Rather, I'll go with the 5, Black Martino. In his last race, the King Cugat Stakes at Saratoga, he was flying at the wire, just missing by a neck. He earned a figure of 85 in that race, and has earned up to an 89 on the grass before. That would easily win this race.
Also one to consider is the 6, Weekend Express, who has similar grass form. However, none of his races have been as impressive visually as Black Martino.
5- Black Martino (5/1)
6- Weekend Express (7/2)
3- West Village (5/2)

Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll close the show with the 6, No Brody No. He did something rare in a maiden claiming race: he made up ground in the stretch. He rallied from eighth place to run a decent third, beaten about two lengths. He earned a figure of 68 in that race, the best last-out number in the field. He's my pick to wrap things up this Saturday.
The 3, Kiss the Road, is an interesting horse: a Calumet/Zito horse entered in this cheap maiden claiming. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he was most recently fourth in a bottom-level maiden claiming there. The 8, Ignatius, was pulled up in his last dirt effort after suffering through a world of traffic. Before that, his form was decent.
6- No Brody No (3/1)
3- Kiss the Road (9/5)
8- Ignatius (10/1)

July 17, 2015: Picks and Analysis

There's ten races on Friday at Monmouth Park. He's who I think will win them.

Weather Forecast: 82*F, Partly Cloudy

Race 1: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
It's not an easy race to begin the program. I eventually settled on the 4, Fort Boonesborough. In his last race, he rebounded off of two dull efforts to run a respectable second in an off-the-grass effort. He earned a brisnet figure of 85 in this race, the best last-out race of anyone in the field. His past routing form also looks to be the best in the field, so I'll start off the card with him.
The 5, North Ocean, checked out of his last race, but showed ability prior to that. I'll give him another chance. The 2, Dancing Lion, is first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness, who hits at a mind-blowing 36% with that angle. The only question is if he can stretch back out to a route.
4- Fort Boonesborough (5/2)
5- North Ocean (9/5)
2- Dancing Lion (5/2)

Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
My pick here is the 3, Colonel Jordan. He may have finished in fifth last out, but the winner of that race won by six lengths; Colonel Jordan was only two lengths behind the second-place finisher. His figures have also been consistently in the low-70s range, which should be good enough to win this race. Also, his late speed numbers are among the best in the race, so when the rest of the field tires out, he should still be going strong.
The 8, Diacetto, broke through with a maiden claiming win in his last race, and has the hot team of Claudio Gonzalez and Trevor McCarthy. The 1, Big Daddy B, has decent early speed and an inside draw.
I would like to make a note to avoid the 9, Eight Cents, who has displayed an extreme aversion to winning, and will "shore"ly be overbet.
3- Colonel Jordan (3/1)
8- Diacetto (4/1)
1- Big Daddy B (7/2)

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Just about any of the seven two-year-olds entered here can win this race. I wound up picking the 2, Entertainer, to win. He's been working sharply in preparation for this race, and trainer Wayne Catalano has been hitting at a sharp 19% with first-time-starters in recent times. Catalano's also been hitting at an insane 50% with horses at Monmouth in general this season. In a wide-open race like this, finding an information nugget like that can be the key to some good cash.
The 7, Silverado Star, has the ever-dangerous Plesa-Lopez combination, and turned in a sharp workout to prepare for this race. The 4, Full Salute, is one of two in here with experience, and ran a good second last out, finishing four lengths clear of the third-place horse. He may improve strongly.
2- Entertainer (5/2)
7- Silverado Star (3/1)
4- Full Salute (3/1)

Race 4: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 5, Caroline's Spirit, looks to be the best horse in the field. In her last race, at this level, she made a furious closing rally, missing second by a length. Her figure of 71 is the second-best last-out number, only trailing Ready Now's 73. I'm a bit leery of that one, considering her drop from MSW company down to the maiden claimers, as well as the fact that this is former jockey Jorge Duarte's first horse as a trainer.
Also worth considering is the 4, Archemist, who was a solid third in her first race off the layoff last out.
5- Caroline's Spirit (3/1)
8- Ready Now (6/1)
4- Archemist (4/1)

Race 5: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
While both halves of the entry in this race are strong, I lean toward the 1, Puget Sound. He's shipping in from Delaware Park, where he blew away a field of $6,250 claimers. He earned a figure of 87 there, and has always earned figures in the mid-80s. His entry-mate, Master of Humor, has steadily improving form, and ships in from Penn National. These two, together, are going to be hard to beat.
The 6, Parody, can't be ignored, either. He blew away a field at the $5,000 level last out, earning a figure of 90 in that race. If he runs back to that race, he'll be very tough.
1- Puget Sound/1A- Master of Humor (5/2)
6- Parody (3/1)
8- More Hundred Acre (8/1)

Race 6: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 1, Jademarie, is going to be tough to beat in here. Her figures are the best in the field by a good margin, averaging around an 80 in her last three. She's also getting a major jockey upgrade, going from Gabriel Saez to Paco Lopez. I can't quite say that she's a single in multi-race bets, but if she keeps doing what she's been doing, she'll be very tough.
The 5, Bellatara, ran sharp races over the winter at Gulfstream, but makes her first start since February. The 6, Kent's Baby Girl, needs to be closer to the pace to have a better shot of winning.
1- Jademarie (2/1)
5- Bellatara (15/1)
6- Kent's Baby Girl (9/2)

Race 7: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
No one in this Jersey-bred maiden claimer has shown much of anything when it comes to form. Because of that, I'll lean toward a first-time starter, the 1, Banana Anna. Her works going into this race have been sharp, and trainer Daniel Lopez hits at a respectable 14% with first-time starters.. It's not much, but in a field like this, it works.
1- Banana Anna (9/2)
8- Channel Surfing (3/1)
3- Easy Landing (6/1)

Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Once again, I will look toward the inside, and pick the 1, Palace Gate. If you toss his last dirt effort, he's been in the mix in every one of his grass starts. His last figure of 79 is the best among all the grass runners in the field. Trainer Marcus Vitali has also been having a great season, especially on grass. None of this hurts him, so he'll be my selection.
The 5, Royal Caviar, has shown good late speed and has some of the best figures in the field; he may improve in this spot. The 9, Pirradazis, has been a close-but-no-cigar type all season, but is nonetheless a contender for exotic spots.
1- Palace Gate (5/2)
5- Royal Caviar (7/2)
9- Pirradazis (3/1)

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The likely favorite in here is the 5, Thirteen Arrows, who last ran in the Prioress Stakes back in August. Ordinarily, I would dismiss a horse who hadn't run in eleven months, but trainer Larry Jones hits at an absurdly high 33% with horses off that long of a layoff. And those aren't flukes, either: that sample size comes from 69 starters. When you couple that with a horse whose form already makes her a strong contender, it becomes a solid choice. Now, if Thirteen Arrows was bet down to a ridiculously low price, I'd be inclined to steer clear. But she's a must-use in multi-race bets.
The 4, True Blue Nation, has good figures, blazing early speed, and the ability to stay on after a fast pace. She is also a strong contender.
The 3, Discreetly Elusive, ships in for Todd Pletcher, and comes off solid races at this level at Belmont.
5- Thirteen Arrows (9/5)
4- True Blue Nation (5/1)
3- Discreetly Elusive (5/2)

Race 10: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I will conclude the card with the 11, Weather Permitting. She's put in sharp closing rallies in her last few starts, earning the best late speed figures in the race. Her speed figures are also among the best, earning back-to-back 64s. I try her to get out on this Friday.
11- Weather Permitting (4/1)
2- Jojo's Gal (7/2)
7- Pica Pica (10/1)

Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/12/15

A star was unveiled in the featured Klassy Briefcase Stakes. There were 11 other races, too.

Race 1 (Dr. Blarney, Tom McCooey-Tommy Turner, :58.4)
Dr. Blarney sat THE trip--rating off two duelers while well clear of the rest of the field--and rolled away to break his maiden at first asking. He was well bet, too: his morning line was 12/1, but he paid $11.60. And, considering that the comparable fillies did five furlongs in 1:01.2 yesterday, the final time here is semi-respectable.

Race 2 (Exclusive Symphony, Patricia Farro-Wilmer Garcia, 1:12.0)
Note to other jockeys: when your horse isn't being challenged on the lead, there's no need to set a :21.3 opening quarter on your horse. Nik Juarez's mount, Twisted Kick, burst out to a five-length lead all by herself, and unsurprisingly tired out. Exclusive Symphony blew by her at the eighth pole and won it easily. Twisted Kick held on to finish second.

Race 3 (Mr. Viber, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:10.0)
It was an epic stretch battle here, as Mr. Viber, Tell Tale Friend, and Pomeroy's Package dueled throughout the final quarter mile. In the end, Mr. Viber got up and won it by a nose over Tell Tale Friend. Tough beat for someone like me, who liked both Tell Tale Friend and Pomeroy's Package.

Race 4 (A Nice Rendition, Jane Cibelli-Nik Juarez, 1:05.2)
A Nice Rendition engaged in a mini-duel for second place down the backstretch. When leader Two More Jacs tired, A Nice Rendition made his move, but had to battle with Joni's Wildcat down the stretch. A Nice Rendition managed to hold on by a neck. Game effort on his part.

Race 5 (Frogman Mel, Marcos Zulueta-Joe Bravo, 1:42.0)
Frogman Mel took his time here, biding off the four horses who went to the front. Once they stopped, he rallied wide, and won it going away. Nothing to it.

Race 6 (Bobby V, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.2)
It was another example of sitting the trip. Bobby V rated just off the front-runners, moved three-wide on the turn, and won like a 3/5 shot should--easily.

Race 7 (Subpoena, Claudio Gonzalez-Joe Bravo, 1:35.4)
At this stage, you have to wonder how long Claudio Gonzalez will be sneaky good. His win percentage in the program remains low, but he's been getting really hot lately, and this race was no exception. Get 'em while you can, I guess.
Joe Bravo wins his second on the grass today with this one, who moved four-wide and rolled past them.

Race 8 (Alpha Dude, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:12.1)
Alpha Dude looked well beaten at the eighth pole. However, he suddenly decided to run as if a rocket was up his butt, and exploded up the rail to win by a nose. If he had moved one second later, he would've lost. Beautiful timing from Trevor McCarthy, and great races from both Little Tom and Hereosaurus Rex. They dueled with each other the whole way around, but didn't get tired until late.

Race 9 (Vipera, Jane Cibelli-Trevor McCarthy, 1:35.4)
Make it three on the day for Trevor McCarthy. He rode the rails with Vipera, got her clear late, and held off rail-skimming Precious Paula for the victory. That's also a training double for Jane Cibelli.

Race 10 (Chubble Maker, Daniel Lopez-Angel Serpa, 1:11.2)
That ten-month layoff didn't deter Chubble Maker, who rallied five-wide around the turn and won it by a grinding 3/4 of a length. With a race under his belt, he may run an even bigger race next out. Watch for him.

Race 11 (Lady Shipman, Kathleen O'Connell-Eduardo Nunez, 1:01.2)
This was an incredible effort from Lady Shipman. She jumped out to the front, and managed to hold everyone off to win by six lengths. That's her second stakes win of the Monmouth season, and her third stakes win on the year overall. Hopefully, bigger and better things are next for her.

Race 12 (Action Tonight, Tony Wilson-Navin Mangalee, 1:13.4)
My pick, Frolicking Gal, led going into the stretch, but wound up losing by 27 lengths. Figures. Action Tonight, meanwhile, made up nine lengths in the stretch and got up over Silver Bouquet in the last stride.

Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/11/15

Some tickets were punched to the Haskell on Saturday, in the Long Branch Stakes. Who made it? Well, hopefully you already know, but just in case, I'll tell you here, plus give you recaps of the other 11 races.

Race 1 (Earned, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:06.0)
Based on the final time, it looks like Pletcher made the right move sending this one to Monmouth, as opposed to going to Saratoga. She sat a great trip off the duelers and rolled to an easy win, in a less-than-impressive time. Now, she can win the Sorority Stakes, be hyped up for a little bit, and then lose in graded stakes company.

Race 2 (Trapise in Utopia, Mark Hennig-Paco Lopez, 1:45.3)
To my disappointment, Momma's Favorite couldn't get a clear lead. She wound up battling with 44/1 Daddy's Big Girl for the lead, and finally wrested the lead away. Unfortunately for me, she tired out by then, and Trapise in Utopia rolled by for the win. It was a good effort from this one, who was pace-compromised in her last effort. No such trouble here.

Race 3 (Boss's Rules, Patrick Marrotta-Nik Juarez, 1:39.2)
This one was over very early on. Boss's Rules got clear early and that was all she wrote. I dismissed her based off her last effort at Parx, which proved to be a tragic mistake.

Race 4 (Starship Wildcat, Allen Iwinski-Andre Worrie, 1:03.2)
Starship Wildcat made a big three-wide sweep around the turn, and got involved in a three-way photo with my two picks, Didn't Take It and Dedicated to Bob. Of course, Starship Wildcat held off the charge of the latter two to get the job done.

Race 5 (Candystand, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:01.0)
Candystand was making the drop from maiden special weight down to maiden claiming, and it paid off with a victory. Although the final time is nothing to write home about, she did show some heart dueling down the stretch with Prospecting Road.
Kelly Breen trained the winner here. He wasn't at Monmouth, but rather at Delaware. He wound up saddling Delaware Oaks winner Calamity Kate, who shocked them at 50/1.

Race 6 (Heart of Midway, Tom Proctor-Jose Ferrer, 1:41.3)
It was a good ride from Jose Ferrer on the favorite. He moved Heart of Midway up to challenge the longshot leader, took over when that one faded, and drew off to win easily. You can only afford to do stuff like that when you have one of the best horses in the field, however. Such was the case here.

Race 7 (Delta Bluesman, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:09.1)
Delta Bluesman proved to be the best in here. He jumped out to the early lead and set a blazing pace for himself, yet never stopped and won by three easy lengths. The final time of 1:09.1 certainly jumps out; would his connections consider the Teddy Drone Stakes next?

Race 8 (Majestic Jess, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:35.2)
It's another race with a Navarro-Bocachica horse going gate-to-wire. Majestic Jess jumped out early and held off the challenges of Thunder Calls and Lawyer Jim to prevail. I had all three in the pick 3, and was hoping Thunder Calls would get up so it would pay more. Still cashed, though.

Race 9 (Top Clearance, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:44.2)
Ponzi Scheme got to a very clear lead, but stopped around the turn. On the other hand, Top Clearance got a great trip, and blew by him to win it easily. Good ol' Village Warrior, of course, couldn't capitalize on that trip and finished a very flat third. Where does a horse like that go from here?

Race 10 (Azure Dragon, Michael Dini-Abel Castellano, 1:35.4)
The toughest beat of the meet. I gave out Nineinthenine, strongly endorsing him at 16/1, and bet enthusiastically. He made a big four-wide move around the turn and looked like he'd roll past, but couldn't get away from ground-saving Azure Dragon and lost by a neck. Who said that there was justice in the world?

Race 11 (Stanford, Todd Pletcher-Joe Bravo, 1:44.1)
Stanford may have won the Long Branch, but he couldn't have been less inspiring in winning it. As a matter of fact, he almost blew it going into the stretch, as early leader Souper Colossal re-rallied and almost beat him. Stanford held on, however, securing his spot in the Haskell starting gate. He has next to no chance of beating American Pharaoh, however.

Race 12 (Sassy Spinster, Kathleen Demasi-Jose Ferrer, 1:12.3)
The long layoff didn't derail Sassy Spinster, who fought with Cocoki down the stretch before pulling away in the end. That's a riding double for Jose Ferrer.

July 12, 2015: Picks and Analysis

12 races are scheduled for Sunday at Monmouth, headlined by the $60,000 Klassy Briefcase Stakes, for female grass sprinters.

Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy

Race 1: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 2yo, 5 Furlongs
It's a maiden claiming race for two-year-olds. An Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez first timer is usually a safe bet. That's what the 6, Patio Games, is. That sounds pretty good to me!
6- Patio Games (5/2)
2- Awesome Ghost (3/1)
3- True Ranger (5/1)

Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
A wide open, difficult race for n/w2 claimers lies ahead. My pick is the 6, Exclusive Symphony. In her last race, she was second at this level, earning a respectable brisnet figure of 74. She had earned a solid 73 two races back, showing that that kind of form is not a fluke. Furthermore, in a race with a lot of early speed, she's got more late speed than the rest of them. I'll take her in this spot.
The 7, Chili's Cowgirl, was disappointing in her first start of the season, but made a mild closing rally before fading. The 3, On Oaks Day, moves back to the dirt, where her form was much better.
6- Exclusive Symphony (7/2)
7- Chili's Cowgirl (6/1)
3- On Oaks Day (3/1)

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll pick the 5, Tell Tale Friend. He crushed a n/w1x field last out by four easy lengths. Before that, he just missed after leading the whole way around. He earned figures of 92 and 98 in those two races. And, unlike some of the others here, he doesn't stop on the lead. Rather, he just keeps going, as evidenced by those two races. I think he'll be on or near the lead, then shake them off and win.
The 6, Pomeroy's Package has a very similar profile: good figures, early speed, and late pace. Both horses have great jockeys--McCarthy on Pomeroy's Package, Bocachica on Tell Tale Friend. Both have capable trainers--Navarro with Tell Tale Friend, Cibelli with Pomeroy's Package. Tell Tale Friend has a slight edge on figures, but both horses are worth consideration.
5- Tell Tale Friend (3/1)
6- Pomeroy's Package (5/2)
1- Battled/1A- Songa (7/2)

Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The 1, Keepin it Zeal, looks the most likely. He's got the best figures in the field, running an 84 and an 82 among his last three races. He's also got early speed from post position 1, meaning that he's got the best spot to pop out to the front and draw away to victory.
The 9, Talk Show Talent, ships in from Parx, where he was competitive at this level. He's a strong candidate for the exotic spots. The 8, Joni's Wildcat, narrowly missed last out, and has been working well preparing for this spot.
1- Keepin it Zeal/1A- Zealous Sky (5/2)
9- Talk Show Talent (4/1)
8- Joni's Wildcat (5/1)

Race 5: Claiming $30,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 5, Frogman Mel, looks like the best. He makes his first start for trainer Marcos Zulueta, who hits at 20% when training for the first time. His figures have also slowly been ascending, up from 75 to 82 to 85. He'll be my selection in this spot.
The 6, Call Wil, has strong early and late speed, so a gate-to-wire win from him is definitely possible. The 8, Ginger Goose, was outkicked in his last start at this level, but his figures still make him a candidate for an exotic position.
5- Frogman Man (5/2)
6- Call Wil (7/2)
8- Ginger Goose (3/1)

Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Even on the surface, the 7, Bobby V, looks like a contender. His three most recent races are 77, 79, and 73. That would place him in the mix anyway, but what separates him from the rest is the fact that it's his first start with Jamie Ness training. Ness hits at a mind-boggling 36% first off the claim. When you take into account his consistently good form, Bobby V looks very tough to beat.
The 3, PJ's Magical Wink, has sharp late speed and good figures. The 5, Bat Cave, sharply improved in his last race, but who knows if that 83 that he earned is legit. I say buyer beware.
7- Bobby V (3/1)
3- PJ's Magical Wink (7/2)
5- Bat Cave (4/1)

Race 7: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
A wide-open field of claimers begins the Sunday Jersey Shore 6. My pick in here is the 8, Subpoena. Her recent figures are among the best in the field, earning a 77, 85, and 80 in her last three. She's also getting some much-needed class relief, dropping from n/w1x allowance company down to claimers. She looks like she'll fit better in here.
The 7, Bobs Pinup Girl, ships in from Belmont Park, where her figures were competitive. However, both her trainer and jockey have been cold as of late. The 3, Echale Salsita, ran well last out at this level, and will benefit if she's kept closer to the pace.
8- Subpoena (3/1)
7- Bobs Pinup Girl (7/2)
3- Echale Salsita (5/1)

Race 8: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I picked the 9, Naughty Delite, in his last race, and he responded with a win. I lean towards him once again in this spot. He's one of the few in the field to consistently run figures in the mid-70s, with a field-best 76 in his last effort. He's also got a lot of late speed, so there's a great chance of him rolling by his tired comrades and winning his second straight.
The 3, Alpha Dude, also earned a 76 in that last effort. and is now cutting back to a sprint from a route. Trainer Jamie Ness hits at 28% with that angle. The 5, Hereosaurus Rex, hopes to rebound following two disappointing efforts at this level.
9- Naughty Delite (7/2)
3- Alpha Dude (5/2)
5- Hereosaurus Rex (7/2)

Race 9: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's the second division of the $12.5k claimers race that was previously run in race 7. My pick leans toward the far outside in here, and that's the 11, Lady's Lunar Luck. Her three most recent figures, all earned at Parx and Belmont, were 78, 81, and 80, placing her in the upper echelon of the field. In that last race at Parx, she made up almost ten lengths to just miss. That makes her very dangerous in this spot, and I'll take her to begin the late pick 4.
11- Lady's Lunar Luck (5/2)
1- Fava (3/1)
8- Precious Paula (9/2)

Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Given that Paco Lopez is named on both halves of the Eddie Plesa entry in here, it is likely that only one of them will run. Hopefully, he will choose the 1A, Walk Away Slow, because he's the most likely winner. He ran well in his first start off the layoff, checking on the turn yet still running a solid third. His figure of 81 in that race is competitive on its own, and he had earned up to an 87 in the past, which would make him much the best.
The 11, Little Hitman, has also shown good form this year, but he'll have some trouble from post 12. The 6, Behr in the Woods, made a sharp closing rally two starts back, and hopes to rebound off a dull effort at Parx last out.
1- Ride This Train/1A- Walk Away Slow (7/2)
11- Little Hitman (3/1)
6- Behr in the Woods (6/1)

Race 11: Klassy Briefcase Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
She may give me a heart attack rounding the far turn, however, the deep-closing 9, Joya Real, is my pick. In her last race, in the Very One Stakes at Pimlico, she closed furiously to miss by only 3/4 of a length. That was also her first start of the season; despite all that, her figure there was a 95. She's consistently shown herself to be a very fast mare sprinting, and if she's near her 5/1 morning line, that would make her an appealing prospect.
The 2, Lady Shipman, is a personal favorite of mine, and she dominated the Crank it Up Stakes in her last race. She may not be fast enough to get to the early lead, however, which might spell trouble. The 5, Indian Splendor, dominated a n/w2x field over this track last out, and improved strongly in that effort.
9- Joya Real (5/1)
2- Lady Shipman (4/1)
5- Indian Splendor (6/1)

Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The 12, Frolicking Gal, is the way to go. The reason is, quite simply, Jorge Navarro. He's great with horses taking big class drops (as illustrated by Percussion on Friday), and hits at a whopping 41% with horses second off the layoff. That means, just based on that stat, she is worth a bet is more than 6/5. Don't count on it, though.
12- Frolicking Gal (7/2)
8- O'Lucey (4/1)
4- Caroline's Comedy (3/1)

July 11, 2015: Picks and Analysis

12 races are part of the Saturday Monmouth card, headlined by the $100,000 Long Branch Stakes. That race should produce a Haskell runner. It's also PDJF day, full of fund-raisers to help out disabled jockeys. It's "shore" to be another fun day of racing on the Jersey shore.

Weather Forecast: 86*F, Partly Cloudy

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The only horse in here to have run at any point, ever, is the 2, Dance N Denae. She was uninspiring in two career starts, so it's more than likely that a first-timer will win this race. I will go the rather obvious route, and select the 6, Earned. She's being ridden by Abel Castellano, who is having a strong season, and is trained by the always-dangerous Todd Pletcher. She turned in a good 4 furlong workout at Saratoga on July 4, going in :48.0. That's the fastest time anyone in the field has gone at that distance, and I expect that she'll be the fastest one around the track.
The 1, Out of Nowhere, has turned in good 3 furlong bullets in preparation for this race. However, trainer Russell Cash is 0-23 on the meet and is a mere 2-24 with first time starters in recent times. Proceed with caution there. The 3, Thatta Boy Girl, enters this one for the top trainer Jorge Navarro, and is also working well in preparation for this spot.
6- Earned (3/2)
3- Thatta Boy Girl (7/2)
1- Out of Nowhere (12/1)

Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
While breaking her maiden in her last race, the 7, Momma's Favorite, got an uncontested lead and drew away. I think something similar will happen here. Nobody else in the field has shown the amount of speed required to run with her early on, so there's an excellent chance that she'll just cruise to the front and not look back.
When it comes to the horses who will finish behind her, the options are numerous. The 1, Porcia, won her last dirt start easily while rating off the lead. If Momma's Favorite melts down for some reason, she could be the first to take advantage of that. The 4, Trapise in Utopia, chased a clear leader to finish five lengths of her next rival last out.
7- Momma's Favorite (4/1)
1- Porica (7/2)
4- Trapise in Utopia (4/1)

Race 3: Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I'll take the steadily improving filly in here--the 5, Harlington Romance. Last out, at Parx, she earned a figure of 90, achieved while moving up onto a very fast pace. She drew off to a lead of up to four lengths, before having the margin cut to 1 1/4 lengths. Even so, that figure is much, much better, than anyone else has earned in recent times. She can go to the early lead and claim it if she wants, or take back off the lead. Either way, she's got a good shot at winning this one.
The 4, Idontknowgoaskanni, has the best late speed in the field, and drew away from her rivals to win gate-to-wire last out. She's a must-use in any multi-race bets. The 6, Chippette, has earned good figures sprinting, and hopes to improve her speed to routes.
5- Harlington Romance (7/5)
4- Idontknowgoaskanni (5/2)
6- Chippette (9/2)

Race 4: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
Two horses jump out in terms of figures. The 4, Dedicated to Bob, has earned an 85, 88, and 87 in his last three. The 7, Didn't Take It, earned an 88, 89, and 90. Already, Didn't Take It has a slight edge over Dedicated to Bob, and it becomes more apparent when you look at their running styles. Didn't Take It tends to rate off the pace, then use his field-best late kick to get by. That's what he's done in two out of his last three starts, and it puts him in sharp contrast with Dedicated to Bob. I will take Didn't Take It in here.
7- Didn't Take It (9/5)
4- Dedicated to Bob (2/1)
6- Starship Wildcat (5/2)

Race 5: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 2yo, Fillies, 5 Furlongs
These types of races are always difficult to dissect. Usually, the horses with experience in a maiden claiming race like this aren't that good. And if owners thought that their horse was that good, they probably wouldn't start them off in a $30,000 maiden claiming race. However, somebody has to win this race, so here I go.
My pick will be the 2, Candystand. I know that she was dull in her lone career race, and now she's dropping in for a tag. However, since that race, she's been working well, suggesting that she might be rounding into good form. Besides, you don't exactly have to be a world-beater to win a race like this, and it's definitely possible that she'll improve a lot in her second start.
The 6, Queen Fiddle, had to check in her first race, costing her precious ground. With a cleaner trip here, she should improve. The 3, Habits Lady, is trained by Rudy Rodriguez, who hits at a respectable 17% with first time starters.
2- Candystand (3/1)
6- Queen Fiddle (6/1)
3- Habits Lady (6/1)

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 3, Heart of Midway. In her last effort, at Churchill Downs, she set a blazing pace on the lead. She set a :22.4 quarter and a :46.2 half, yet held on almost the whole way and missed by only four lengths. She earned a figure of 83 in that race, the best that anyone in the field has done. Now, she's facing a weaker field than last time, and should get an easier lead. Those are both tools to a "shore" win.
The 2, Victory Square, earned an 82 in her last race at Gulfstream, doing so with a strong closing rally. If she gets a pace to run at, watch out. The same holds true for the 7, Biamonte.
3- Heart of Midway (7/2)
2- Victory Square (6/1)
7- Biamonte (8/1)

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 4, Fuzzy Muzzle, is my pick to begin the Jersey Shore 6. He's got some of the best figures in the race, running a 92, 88, and 91 in his last three. However, his chief virtue is his lack of early speed, in a race that's full of it. If the pace melts down, he'll just storm on by the leaders and draw off to an easy victory. He's also making his second start off the long layoff, meaning that he can very easily improve off that effort.
The 6, Delta Bluesman, has good figures, but tired while on the pace last out. Breaking from the outside post and being in a race with a lot of early speed, that's not a good sign. Hopefully for his backers, Orlando Bocachica will rate him inside of horses, off the pace. We'll see what happens there. The 1A, Blings Express, also has a lot of speed, but has earned figures as high as a 96 in the past. He also had a terrific work on July 3 to prepare for this race, and trainer Claudio Gonzalez has been slowly heating up.
4- Fuzzy Muzzle (4/1)
6- Delta Bluesman (1/1)
1- Twelve Stones/1A- Blings Express (5/2)

Race 8: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
I will begin the late pick 5 with the 1, Lawyer Jim. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he recently earned an 82 against NY-bred allowance company. That's tied for the best last-out figure in the race. The other horse to do that is the 2, Abilio, who hasn't raced on grass since October and possesses terrible late speed. Lawyer Jim, by contrast, has a relatively strong closing kick, so it's likely that he'll save ground on the rail, then roll by around the turn and win it.
The 5, Majestic Jess, won at this level last out, while cruising on the lead. However, he figures to get more pressure on the front end in this spot. The 9, Thunder Calls, ran well at Monmouth last year, but hasn't run since December.
1- Lawyer Jim (7/2)
5- Majestic Jess (3/1)
9- Thunder Calls (5/2)

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll go with the 1, Ponzi Scheme. In his last race, on June 19 at this level, he was engaged in a fast-paced duel. He brushed off his rival and began to open up, before tiring out and being passed in the stretch. He still held on for a decent third, earning a best-in-field 93. Now, he has the most early speed, and the advantageous rail position. He's the one to beat.
The 3, Top Clearance, broke his maiden sprinting, and now stretches out to a route here. His races at Churchill were dangerous; watch for him.
1- Ponzi Scheme (5/1)
3- Top Clearance (5/2)
4- Air Squadron (2/1)

Race 10: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
The 3, Nineinthenine, looks like a standout. His last three figures on the grass are 86, 87, and 86. No one else has done better than an 83 in their last three starts. I can forgive his last effort, as it was his first start off a long layoff, and it was washed off the grass. Even though it was a dismal performance, just having something under his belt can't hurt. The fact that he's a 10/1 morning line just makes it all the better. Usually, I wouldn't go all in with both fists, given his lack of recent grass efforts, but at a price like that, you have to go for it.
3- Nineinthenine (10/1)
4- Sonofachub (10/1)
7- Azure Dragon (7/2)

Race 11: Long Branch Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles
On paper, this is a two-horse affair. The 3, Stanford, broke his maiden over this track last year, and was most recently second in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont. The 6, Souper Colossal, won the Sapling last year, and is coming off an ill-fated grass experiment. I will lean toward the latter, even though his dirt figures are a few lengths slower. Those figures, however, were earned last year as a two-year-old. I have to imagine that he has improved at three, and that would put him at least on par with Stanford. When one considers that he'll likely be a better price than Stanford, the decision as to who to bet becomes a no-brainer.
An interesting longshot, if one wants to go that route, may be the 4, Fortuitous Path. He earned an 89 in his last race while breaking his maiden sprinting. He can "shore"ly improve in this race.
6- Souper Colossal (8/5)
4- Fortuitous Path (5/1)
3- Stanford (7/5)

Race 12: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
My get-out pick is the 3, Key d'Oro. Last time out, she narrowly missed at this level, winning by a half length. Her figure there was a 79, the best in the field by a lot. She's also got the dangerous Vitali-Bocachica combination, which only enhances her case.
3- Key d'Oro (5/2)
8- Bella Yolanda (7/2)
7- Birch Creek Crazy (10/1)