It's a big day Sunday at Monmouth Park--12 races are scheduled, with a whopping 135 horses entered. Two stakes are on tap, including the John McSorley Stakes, for grass sprinters, and the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes, going 1 1/8 miles on the grass. It's also the day of the Irish Festival at Monmouth (formerly known by the better title of "St. Patrick's Day in July", although I guess it would be "St. Patrick's Day in June" in this case), and the first day of the Monmouth Park Kids' Club, sponsored by Thorofan. All in all, it's a superb day of racing, and if you have no plans for Sunday, come on out! I would be there, but unfortunately, I have plans. I handicapped the card regardless.
Weather Forecast: 67*F, Sunny
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If you get caught in traffic coming to the track, and miss the first, trust me when I say that you aren't missing much with this race. However, if you get there on time, bet the 2, Hereosaurus Rex. He's shown the most ability out of anyone in the field--two out of his three career races were above 70 on the brisnet figures. In his last start, here at Monmouth on May 24, he faded after dueling on the rail. In this race, however, he's got the most early speed by far, and shouldn't get as much pace pressure as he did last time out. If he gets clear, he'll be dangerous.
I also considered the 6, Naughty Delite, as he improved greatly in his last start, and is also making his third start off the layoff. However, I can't strongly endorse a horse who is 0-16 lifetime, with five seconds and three thirds. That's sucker horse material right there.
2- Hereosaurus Rex (7/2)
6- Naughty Delite (7/2)
5- No Brody No (6/1)
Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
My pick is the 4, Even So. In her last race at Pimlico, she dueled on the outside, going through fractions of :22.4 and :46.4. For that level, and by Pimlico standards, that's fast. She not only held on, but drew off to lead by 1 1/2 lengths at one point, only to be caught late. Regardless, she still earned a brisnet figure of 69, which is the best last-out figure among all runners in the field. Even if she gets hooked in the duel, she's shown that she can hold on and run well.
Jojo's Gal, the 7, is my second choice, who was on the pace the whole way last out at this level, only to start drifting and fading late. Twisted Kick, the 9, ran two great races prior to last out, where she dueled and faded to lose by 19 lengths. She'll have to be tougher to win here.
4- Even So (9/2)
7- Jojo's Gal (6/1)
9- Twisted Kick (7/2)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
The 5, Bustin Out, looks much the best in here. First off the long layoff last out, she led almost the whole away around against open company. She was caught late by the favored Thepartyneverends, but she still earned a figure of 91, which is head, shoulders, and then some above the rest of the field. She'll win easily, albeit at a low price. Nevertheless, she turns the pick 4 into a pick 3, and the pick 5 into a pick 4.
5- Bustin Out (8/5)
3- Fakery (3/1)
4- Golden Earrings (7/2)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
The rail is finally at 0 feet. We can have 12 horse fields on the grass! Hallelujah!
Anyway, I will take the 11, Elite Eight. She's been running consistently at Tampa, recently leading almost the whole way around at a similar level before being caught. She earned a 74 in that race, and is the only one in the field to earn a 70 or above in all three races. She's also getting a jockey upgrade to Paco Lopez, and is your most likely winner.
The 3, Just Like Kaki, would be competitive if not for her inexplicably bad effort last out at Gulfstream; she hopes to bounce back here. The 7, Quarla, ran improving figures at Gulfstream over the winter, but hasn't run since February and is 0-12 lifetime.
11- Elite Eight (7/2)
7- Quarla (5/1)
3- Just Like Kaki (3/1)
Race 5: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'm willing to give the 3, Ryabinka, another shot. In her last race--in which I picked her--she was engaged in a brutal four-wide speed duel, and stopped to finish 12 lengths back. Now, however, she'll have a spot closer to the rail, so she won't be hung out wide that much. As long as she doesn't get hooked up in another blazing speed duel, she'll likely repeat her races at Gulfstream over the winter, which are the best anyone's run in the field recently.
The 2, Nature's Alley, is my best alternative, based on her races at Oaklawn Park over the winter, where she consistently ran in the high 70s-low 80s.
3- Ryabinka (5/1)
2- Nature's Alley (7/2)
9- Havana Julie (3/1)
Race 6: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I went with Neoclassic, the 10, in his last start, and I'll try him again here. He didn't win that race, but he had the lead almost the whole way, only to get caught late. He earned a brisnet figure of 86 in that race, best in the field, and he's consistently run in that range in the past. He had a decent 3 furlong workout here at Monmouth on June 1, showing that he was able to rebound quickly from that effort, and that he appears ready to run a great race. I'm willing to give him another chance.
The 11, Breakeven Analysis, is also dangerous, having also shown the ability to run figures at that level, and having earned numbers as high as a 97 at one point. His only issues are the cold Angel Serpa riding and the even colder Eddie Plesa training.
Skiffs Brewmeister, the 2, made a big rally in his last start, closing from fifteen lengths out of it to finish fourth. If he's closer to the pace this time, that rally may be more successful.
10- Neoclassic (7/2)
11- Breakeven Analysis (4/1)
2- Skiffs Brewmeister (8/1)
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a very tricky race here, as six out of the eleven in here are first-time starters. None of the five who have run have shown any inspiring form, so I'll take one of the first-timers: the 9, She Hung the Moon. She's got the team of Todd Pletcher and Paco Lopez, which is generally a very good sign when it comes to these types of races. It's not a whole lot to go on, but in a maiden race without much form, it's always a safe bet to go with the guy who is almost a "shore" thing in maidens.
9- She Hung the Moon (4/1)
2- Sudden Snowstorm (6/1)
10- Rolling Wind (3/1)
Race 8: John McSorley Stakes, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
13 horses stuffed the entry box for this race, as those not-ready-for-prime-time grass sprinters line up hoping to claim the $36,000 first prize.
My pick in here, and it's a confident one, is the 8, Buster Rose. Last time out was his first start since December, while running against G3 company at Churchill Downs. He ran a respectable fourth, only missing by three lengths and earning a figure of 95. Last year, he was running figures in that mid-90s range, which would easily give him the win. In a field of 13, he should be a great price.
The 1, A.P. Elvis, ran figures in that range last year, too, but he's making his first start off of a six-month layoff. His trainer, Jessica Campitelli, hits at 0-11 with horses off a long layoff. He may need a race. However, if he's at his 15/1 morning line, which is a bit excessive, he may be worth another look. Watch the board.
The 10, Mellow Fellow, tired after setting the pace in the Red Bank, but he's got a lot of early speed, and a drop in distance may be what he needs.
8- Buster Rose (3/1)
1- A.P. Elvis (15/1)
10- Mellow Fellow (15/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
This race runs through two horses exiting the May 16 race at this same level--the 3, Read All About It, and the 7, Love Came to Town. Read All About It narrowly beat Love Came to Town in that race, making a three-wide bid to get up over that rival by a neck. Love Came to Town had to go four-wide in that race, so the two horses ran similar efforts. I'll give a slim edge to Read All About It, as she's drawn closer to the rail, and has a peak figure of 86 in the past. However, both are dangerous, and I would use them in equal strength in the pick 4, pick 5, and/or Jersey Shore 6.
3- Read All About It (7/2)
7- Love Came to Town (5/2)
2- Goldiebuxx (4/1)
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w3x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
A wide-open allowance race is what we encounter here, and almost all of the ten entered have shown the ability to win it. I'll take the 10, Isthmus, on the far outside. He's got blazing early speed, plus he's shown the ability to carry that speed all the way around, as evidenced by gate-to-wire scores in Maryland over the winter. At a 6/1 morning line, he's worth taking a shot with in a wide-open bunch like this one.
10- Isthmus (6/1)
8- Classic Salsa (4/1)
6- Doc Almon (6/1)
Race 11: Monmouth Stakes, 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
This is a terrific race, that is unfortunately being buried on two fronts. One, it's being held the day after the Belmont, during which everyone is thinking about the Belmont Stakes and the undercard programs, and not other fine races like this one. Secondly, it's the eleventh race of the day, which, as I have noted before, means it will be held after most of the crowd has already filed out. With the exception of the Haskell, I would be putting all other stakes races as the 8th or 9th race of the day. That way, the fans still get to see the big race, without having to stay at the track for too long.
Anyway, I originally picked the 12, Slumber, in here, only to see him win the Manhattan instead (and no, I didn't bet him there). Because of this, I lack a really strong opinion in this race, so I'll tentatively pick the 7, Slim Shadey. He has the best last-out figure, but he's making his fourth start in a six week span, and will have a bit more trouble against fresher foes. The 5, Ghurair, hasn't raced since August, but was strong in those races, and is working well in preparation for his return.
7- Slim Shadey (12/1)
5- Ghurair (7/2)
1- Triple Threat (9/2)
Race 12: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
I'll go with the 4, The Snickers Kid, to close the Sunday show. Last time out, he was very dull, but he was racing in a sprint, which might have been out of his element. He was also making his first race since August, and checked leaving the gate. All that renders his last effort a tossout, and when you cross out that race, his figures are easily the best in the field. If you need to get out, go with The Snickers Kid.
4- The Snickers Kid (5/2)
2- Saratoga Boot (3/1)
5- Ausable River (8/1)
Overall, it's an absolutely terrific Sunday card. If you won any money betting on Belmont Stakes day, put it back into this card at Monmouth. Good luck to everyone playing!
And, to commemorate the occasion of the Monmouth Stakes, here's Big Brown winning the first running, back in 2008. I bet Shakis. Just missed!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdB2T2R00cE
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