12 races are on tap for a Sunday of action at Monmouth Park, highlighted by the Select Stakes, for three-year-old sprinters on the grass.
Weather Forecast: 81*F, Sunny
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I'll take the 4, Mi Amore, to get things started here. In his last effort, he earned a 78 brisnet speed figure, the best last-out figure in the race by a lot. That was also his first race off a two-month layoff, and with that race under his belt, he should be able to run back to that level. Even if he declines by a few points, the rest would have improve significantly to challenge this horse.
Also ones to consider are the 1, Diacetto, the former jumper who has shown potential in the past, but was dull last out, and the 3, Star Academy, who ran decently last out in a sprint and hopes to keep it up stretching out.
4- Mi Amore (3/2)
1- Diacetto (9/2)
3- Star Academy (4/1)
Race 2: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
In a race like this, it's always a plus when a horse has won at this level before, and that's the case with the 1, Fiesta Rose. Two starts back, she popped out to a clear early lead, and drew away to an easy score at this condition, earning a brisnet figure of 91. She struggled in her last race while being pressured on the lead, but that was at the n/w1x allowance level. Now, she drops back into the claiming level, and has post 1, which means a possible repeat of that victorious May 9 effort.
The 3, Captain Munnings, ships up from Maryland, and has shown the ability to rate, which will come in handy if Fiesta Rose folds on the lead. The 6, Raisin Rachel, was impressive in her maiden score, and has the right to improve off that one dirt effort. However, I cannot tell if her name means that someone is calling Rachel a "raisin", or if they are talking about raising someone named Rachel. So many questions...
1- Fiesta Rose (3/1)
3- Captain Munnings (3/1)
6- Raisin Rachel (5/2)
Race 3: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
It's a lousy field of claimers here, but one horse pops out as a possible good bet. The 7, Weather Permitting, has run figures of 69, 65, and 63 in her last three. She's the only horse in the field to consistently do that. I'll admit that she was not impressive at this level in two starts here this season, but she had not met a weaker field than this one. It may just be the race that she needs to win.
The 5, Exclusive Sarah, has figures that are a cut below Weather Permitting, and hopes to improve on the stretch-out. The 1, Souparion, had good form last year, but struggled last out at a sprint. For her, too, a route may be what she needs.
7- Weather Permitting (4/1)
1- Souparion (7/2)
5- Exclusive Sarah (6/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
For the second straight race, everyone in here seems so bad, it's hard to pick out one horse to win it. Regardless, I will take the 4, Warrior's Instinct. In his grass bow last out, he was fractious at the gate, never a good sign for any horse. He finished fifth, beaten fifteen lengths (seven lengths behind the second place finisher), but earned a figure of 73 in that race, the best among anybody in here. Now, he's making his second grass start, against weaker competition, and as long as he behaves himself in the gate, he'll improve off that race.
The 11, Unbridled Majesty, also has run good figures, but hasn't hit the board in six career starts. The 5, Step Two, was fractious in the gate in his debut as well, but showed speed almost the whole way around and was caught late. He, too, can improve.
4- Warrior's Instinct (3/1)
11- Unbridled Majesty (5/1)
5- Step Two (8/1)
Race 5: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Despite the long layoff, it's hard to see the 4, No Returns, losing this race. Last year, he ran an 87 and a 90 in back-to-back races, which are the best figures in the race by a long way. He hasn't raced since September, but trainer Jorge Navarro is hitting at an insane 35% with horses off that kind of layoff. He looks to be a cinch.
Horses to use underneath him include the 3, Cloudy River, who has run decent races while getting tough trips down at Pimlico, and the 5, Get Creative, who ran well at Gulfstream over the winter and is working well for this race.
4- No Returns (8/5)
3- Cloudy River (7/2)
5- Get Creative (5/2)
Race 6: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I predict that Navarro will be going back-to-back on this program, for the 3, Wildcatpleasures, also looks hard to beat. His last three figures are all above 85. Only one horse in the field has done above an 85 even once in his last three races. He's also got early speed and a post close to the rail, so he can get out of the gate, control the pace, and draw off. It's a no-brainer here.
3- Wildcatpleasures (2/1)
5- Solidario (3/1)
7- Gansett Bay (6/1)
Race 7: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
I'll go with the outside horse, the 11, Set on Salsa, to begin the Jersey Shore 6. She's run back-to-back figures of 74, consistently the best in the field. She was wide the whole way around last out, but still ran a decent third at this same level, finishing ahead of some of her opponents today. There's no guarantees she'll manage to get further inside today, of course, but in a field like this, she's worth a shot.
The 4, Kabuki Rose, despite her poor race last out, merits some consideration, as she had been running well prior to her dud, and drops back down to the claiming ranks. The 6, Kent's Baby Girl, has been running some decent races and has dangerous early speed.
11- Set on Salsa (3/1)
6- Kent's Baby Girl (6/1)
4- Kabuki Rose (5/1)
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I will begin the pick 5 with the 3, Class and Cash. In his first race off the long layoff last out, he ran a solid second behind the promising Light's Gone Wild, earning a brisnet figure of 85. He was 2 1/2 lengths ahead of the rest of the field, meaning that he held a solid advantage over his persumably less talented rivals. Facing a field in which he's one of the primary contenders, he should improve off that race, and head off to victory.
The 8, Charlesbrecknridge, also ran a good figure in his last start, but was visually unimpressive; he'll have to show more life here to contend. The coupled entry of the 1, Coaches Challenge, and the 1A, Monkey Business, are intriguing, Coaches Challenge didn't run badly in his debut at Churchill, while Monkey Business looks the best of the two first-time starters.
3- Class and Cash (5/2)
8- Charlesbrecknridge (5/1)
1- Coaches Challenge/1A- Monkey Business (7/2)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
A wide-open allowance field is what we encounter here, and it's not an easy race to handicap, for "shore". I settled on the 4, Canzoni, in this race. In his last start, at this exact level, he rated off the pace, made a big four-wide move, and just missed by a head. He earned a brisnet figure of 96 in there, the best last-out race in the field. He's got the team of Todd Pletcher and Paco Lopez behind him here, and looks to be the most likely winner.
The 6, Yari, is also exiting that race, but didn't run as impressive of a race as Canzoni. He's earned brisnet figures of up to 101 in the past, however, and can certainly run back to that race.
4- Canzoni (3/1)
6- Yari (5/1)
11- Dr. Goldfarb (12/1)
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (C), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Two horses stand out to me in here--the 1, Oasis and Midnight, and the 4, Power of Snunner. I lean toward Power of Snunner, as her prior form is better. Both of the major contenders have earned figures of 90 in their last race, but Power of Snunner ran a 97 and a 94 in here two prior starts, as opposed to a 91 and a 93 for Oasis at Midnight. Furthermore, I believe Oasis at Midnight may be overbet in here, as she's taking a big drop in class, from graded stakes down to this conditioned allowance race. Another good sign is that Power of Snunner's jockey, Matthew Rispoli, is shipping in to Monmouth just for this mount. I'll take Power of Snunner now, but I'll probably bet whoever is the better price. We'll see who that turns out to be.
4- Power of Snunner (3/1)
1- Oasis at Midnight (5/2)
7- J's Two Step Halo (9/2)
Race 11: Select Stakes, 3yo, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
I remember when I thought Bluegrass Singer, the 4, was a Derby contender. Ha!
However, he ran well in the James Murphy Stakes at Pimlico last out, holding the lead almost the whole way around before fading in the stretch. That race was at a mile, and now he's cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs, which may be more up his alley. His figure in that race was a 96, which towers over the rest of the field. Marcus Vitali has been sharp on the grass this season, and Orlando Bocachica has been hot as well. At a 7/2 morning line, he may be a very appealing price.
The 3, Sylven Park, may be a maiden, but he ran well in his debut at Gulfstream, and has been working bullets for this race.
4- Bluegrass Singer (7/2)
3- Sylven Park (6/1)
5- Souper Colossal (5/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I'll take the 8, No More Music. In his last start, he was fractious before the start, was making his first start off a long layoff, and was going a route. Despite all that, he ran a figure of 74 there, best among everybody in the field. Cutting back to a sprint, he should improve off that effort.
The 1, We B Jammin, ran well last year, but tired in his first start of the season. He has the right to improve in his second outing.
8- No More Music (4/1)
1- We B Jammin/1A- Royal Palm Drive (7/2)
5- James Alex (9/2)
As always, the first race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!
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