It's both Father's Day and Pegasus day here at Monmouth Park, and with rain in the forecast, it looks like it will be a wet one. Hopefully the forecast changes, but for now I will make picks for both dirt and grass when appropriate.
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, 4 1/2 Furlongs
He may have a ridiculous name, but the 6, Ayyoh, is my top selection in the opener. Trainer Cathal Lynch is sneaky good with first-time starters, hitting at 28% with those horses. He's also working well for this race, and at a 7/2 morning line, he's worth a shot.
The 4, Mr. Smith, has the training of Eddie Plesa, who has scored with a 2-year-old maiden this season, and is also working well. The 7, Scoff, was scratched out of a race against fillies to run against the males, and has the best figures of all three of the horses with experience.
6- Ayyoh (7/2)
4- Mr. Smith (3/1)
7- Scoff (2/1)
Race 2: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The worst part about the possibility of it raining Sunday is that the rail will be at 0 feet on the grass, enabling 12-horse fields there. If these races are off-the-grass, then that's kind of rendered moot. Is it possible to do a reverse rain-dance, which would ensure sunny skies?
Anyway, if this race stays on the grass, I'll take the 2, All Over Me. In his last race, he was wide the whole way, before being blocked in the stretch. He still got up to win it by a neck. He earned a brisnet figure of 74 in this race: not great, but it was his first start since December. With that race under his belt, I sense improvement.
If we are washed away, I'll take the 14, Paddington Express. He was not great in his last start, but his dirt figures are way better than anyone else's in the field. That makes sense, of course, considering he's a dirt horse.
Grass:
2- All Over Me (5/2)
5- Hudson Miracle (3/1)
3- Greek God (6/1)
Dirt:
14- Paddington Express
6- Market Title
5- Hudson Miracle
Race 3: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
There's not many good things to say about the plugs in this one, outside of (persumably) they're alive and well. I mean, the heavy morning line favorite is the 4, Confrontational, who beat an abysmal maiden claiming field in her last start. Even so, her figure of 67 is the best last-out number in the field, and nobody else in the field has shown much in the way of form. However, she'll be a low price, so I wouldn't advise betting her--or anyone--in this race.
4- Confrontational (4/5)
2- Jojo's Gal (6/1)
1- Trapise in Utopia (9/2)
Race 4: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
My grass selection is the 3, Silverville. In her last race at Pimlico, she earned a best last-out figure of 87, while rallying from the back of the pack. She missed by just a nose, after being as far back as 10 lengths in that one. Jevian Toledo comes up for the ride, and she should be a good price at 4/1 odds.
On dirt, I'll go with the 6, California Thirty Seven, who has been turning in decent dirt races at Belmont and Aqueduct.
Grass:
3- Silverville (4/1)
8- Quiet Kitten (10/1)
12- Subpoena (12/1)
Dirt:
6- California Thirty Seven
10- Indygita
14- Sweet Henrietta
Race 5: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's a good race, as far as n/w2 claiming races go. I'll go with the 2, Distinctivelygreat, in this race. This winter at Tampa, he won his first two dirt races, earning an 86 figure in each. Furthermore, as a three-year-old, entered for the open condition, as opposed to the n/w2 condition, he holds a major class edge over the rest of his rivals. Consider yourself lucky if you get his 3/1 morning line at post time, but he's the most likely winner.
Also of note is the 5, Strike Bold, who broke his maiden here at Monmouth last year, and ran decent numbers at Gulfstream this winter. The 1, El Guero Guantero, makes his third start off the layoff, and ran creditably in his last start here at Monmouth.
2- Distinctivelygreat (3/1)
5- Strike Bold (3/1)
1- El Guero Guantero (8/1)
Race 6: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
The two fastest horses in the field when it comes to figures are both coming off long layoffs. That would be the 1, Walk Away Slow, who hasn't raced since February, and the 2, Chubble Maker, who hasn't run since last year. Walk Away Slow has a slight edge in figures, with an 87 and an 86 among his last three. He's coming off a shorter layoff, too, and has run better figures in the past. I don't know if he's worth a 2/1 morning line, but he's the most probable winner.
The 9, Little Hitman, is also worth a look. He's run strong races lately, has recent form, and makes his third start off the layoff.
1- Walk Away Slow (2/1)
9- Little Hitman (5/2)
2- Chubble Maker (3/1)
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The Sunday Jersey Shore 6 begins with this sprinting allowance bunch. I wound up going with the 3, Tell Tale Friend. He led almost the whole way around last out, only to get nabbed near the wire late. Even so, he earned a figure of 98 in that race, tied for the best last-out figure in the race. He's also trained by Jorge Navarro and Orlando Bocachica, has the mount, which automatically gives him an edge. He looks to be the most likely winner.
The 4, Proven Warrior, also ran a big race last out, but it was achieved with a very easy lead in a race where he was much the best. He'll have things tougher today. The 6, Songa, was claimed by David Jacobson in his last race, and had good form to back that claim up. He's dangerous.
3- Tell Tale Friend (3/1)
6- Songa (9/2)
4- Proven Warrior (5/1)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
I have been looking forward so much to Boot Scootin' Daddy's next race, to the point where I can tell you where he will be pointed to if this race is washed away (for the record, it would be a n/w1x allowance on July 5). He was dazzingly impressive in his debut, winning by eight decisive lengths while earning a figure of 92. That blows away anyone else in the field. This horse is a future star, and I am eagerly looking forward to seeing him run next.
If we're on the dirt, I'll go with the 12, Gourmet Delight. He ran decent figures on the dirt last year here at Monmouth, and will make his second start off the layoff, too. Expect some decent value on him.
Grass:
11- Boot Scootin Daddy (3/1)
2- Irish Strait (9/2)
1- Monopolist (5/1)
Dirt:
12- Gourmet Delight
1A- Village Warrior
2X- Fake Dreams
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race begins the late pick 4, and I'll begin the sequence with the 4, Pomeroy's Package. He was solid in his first race off the layoff last out, finishing second at this level. His figures look to be the best, and at a 4/1 morning line, he should be an appealing price.
The 3, Just Call Kenny, also has good figures, but he was a less-than-terrific fifth in that race. Regardless, he has the right to improve off of that race. The 9, Gombey Dancer, demolished a field of n/w3 claimers in his last race, and he hopes to handle the class jump here.
4- Pomeroy's Package (4/1)
3- Just Call Kenny (5/2)
9- Gombey Dancer (5/1)
Race 10: Dan Horn Handicap, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 1 Mile (Grass)
Some of the best Jersey-breds in the land line up for this race. In my opinion, this race should be on the dirt in the first place, considering most of these horses are dirt-based.
Anyway, my grass pick is the 4, Oak Bluffs. His last grass race was impressive, winning by two lengths versus allowance company. Before that, he had won at 7 1/2 furlongs, and come close at a mile, proving his ability at a route. Now, he's stretching out against largely unproven grass horses. Assuming none of the others step up, he should win this one.
On dirt, my pick would be the 10, Amblin Easy. She ran an OK third in the Monmouth Beach Stakes, but ran well in a Parx route before that.
Grass:
4- Oak Bluffs (3/1)
12- Disco Rhythm (8/1)
9- Saucy Don (5/1)
Dirt:
10- Amblin Easy
7- Javerre
6- Crafty Concorde
Race 11: Pegasus Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles
A solid bunch of three-year-olds will lineup to contest this Haskell prep. The likely favorite is the 6, Mr. Jordan, coming off four wins in five career starts. He's also making his first ever start outside of Florida in this race. However, I'm not sold on him. His two figures this year are a 91 and an 89. They're OK, but they don't blow me away. His last start wasn't that great, either, as he just held on to win an overnight stakes as a 1/5 shot. Not to mention, he's making just his second career start around two turns. I mean, he might win, and he definitely can, but at low odds, I look elsewhere.
Instead, I'll take a bit of a longshot here: the 2, Bodhisattva. If you toss his Preakness, where he was soundly beaten, his figures are among the best in the field: 96 and 95 in his last two. He's proven over a route of ground this year, having won the Federico Tesio at Pimlico back in April. He was scratched out of the Ohio Derby yesterday to run in here, and I think this will be the better spot for him. I'll bet him, and see if I can get a good price on him.
2- Bodhisattva (8/1)
6- Mr. Jordan (5/2)
7- Chipit (3/1)
Race 12: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
The 11, Laghubaar, may be the fastest in the field, but he was just claimed for $25,000, and now is in for $5,000. What does that say about him? Bad things, that's what.
I'll go with the 8, Bo Badger, instead. He's been running well at the $5,000 level all year, with his lone truly bad race coming when he was placed in n/w1x allowance company. Now, he's back down to his comfort zone, his figures are competitive, and I'll take him to score at a bit of a price.
The 4, Airdrop, ran well in Pennsylvania last year, and his making his first start following a spill last July. He's fast enough to win it if he returns to that form, but he may need a race yet.
8- Bo Badger (5/1)
4- Airdrop (6/1)
11- Laghubaar (3/2)
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