It's a huge day of racing at Belmont Park, to be "shore", but there's still plenty of money to be made at Monmouth as well. Twelve races highlight the Oceanport program, highlighted by the Crank It Up Stakes, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass.
Much in the same vein as the mysterious John J. Reilly, I can't find a "Crank it Up" who raced at Monmouth. If anyone knows why this race is called that, I'd appreciate it.
Weather Forecast: 76*F, Partly Cloudy
It will be a nice day of racing at Monmouth and Belmont.
Race 1: Starter Optional Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles
I am uncertain what to make of the 5, Boss's Rules, who, from a figure standpoint, is an absolute standout. Her last three brisnet figures are 89, 82, and 87, which tower over the rest of the lineup. Those last two figures, however, were earned sprinting; she'll stretch out to a route here. She ran an 87 with an easy gate-to-wire score at Parx last out, and she has enough speed to pull it off again if she wants. I will pick her on top, but I don't think she's a lock, and I wouldn't bet her to win at a low price.
The 1, Star of the Forest, is my top alternative, as she's more proven at one mile, and has the potential to rate off Boss's Rules and pick up the pieces if she wilts. Star of the Forest also has the dangerous Jacobson-Worrie combination, which never hurt anybody.
5- Boss's Rules (2/1)
1- Star of the Forest (7/2)
6- Printasticat (9/5)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The 7, Dominic's Smile, is an easy horse to wrap up the early double. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he ran a big race last out at a similar level. He dueled on the outside the entire way around, losing by 3/4 of a length, while earning a figure of 76. In his race before that, he earned a 74. Nobody else in the field has shown the ability to do that so far. He turned in a decent workout at Belmont in preparation for this race. I'll take him to win this one.
The 2, Antoine's, is the next-best among those with established form, but he tends to stop when pressured on the lead. In a race with a lot of speed, that's not a good trait. Prince Pomeroy, the 8, was dull in his Monmouth debut, but ran decent races at Tampa over the winter.
7- Dominic's Smile (9/5)
2- Antoine's (4/1)
8- Prince Pomeroy (10/1)
Race 3: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I got the 3, Proven Warrior. His last race, on May 10 here at Monmouth, was a gutsy one against allowance company. He dueled the whole way around blazing through a :44.2 half mile, while holding on to finish in second. His last two figures of 88 and 92 are the best by a good margin, and he's shown that he can hold off any potential speed in here.
I hated Steve's Adventures, the 4, in his last start, and he made me look like a moron by drawing off to a a 4 1/2 length score in his first start off a two-year layoff. Now, however, he jumps up from the $5,000 level to the $16,000 class, and I am not "shore" if he'll be able to run as well here. Maybe he will, but I'll let him beat me twice.
The 5, Proven Warrior, ran terrific in his last start, dueling from post eight and never weakening to draw off. That's well and good, but he only earned an 80 in that race, which are a decided cut below the rest of the runners in here. I'm doubtful he'll be able to go back to that old form. Should there be another pace meltdown, the 6, Trinni Heart, could be the one to pick up the pieces, as he's got a stalking style plus some competitive figures earned at Parx.
3- Proven Warrior (3/1)
6- Trinni Heart (5/2)
4- Steve's Adventures (6/1)
Race 4: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If the 9, Jarrod's Commando, had an inside post, he would be a 100% mortal lock. Despite his post position 10, he still looks like a standout. His speed figures are the best by a longshot (his last three are a 95, 89, and 90; nobody else ran any figure like that in their last three), he's got the Ness-Centeno combo, and his workouts have been dynamite. He'll probably be a low price, but even if you get about 7/5 or 3/2 on him, he's worth a bet.
If something unforseen happens to him, the 7, Boss Cat, has won his last four while steadily getting better at Parx. The 1, No More Strippers, surprised me by almost winning last out here at Monmouth, only to be caught late. He's got competitive numbers regardless.
9- Jarrod's Commando (2/1)
7- Boss Cat (4/1)
1- No More Strippers/1A- Catch Me Kaz (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 4, Dujac, in here. Only him and the 5, Deep Consideration, have run numbers in the 80s in their lives. Unlike Deep Consideration, who is a sucker horse (0-9 lifetime, 5 seconds, 3 thirds), Dujac's only run twice, giving me hope that he's not like that. In his last race, at Gulfstream on April 18, he held the lead briefly, only to get up and lose to Element. Element came back recently to win a n/w1x allowance at Belmont. I predict Dujac will do the same, and win this one.
Another one to think about is the 1, All Day Sucker, who ran a decent 77 in his debut at Gulfstream. He has room to improve in his second career start, and has the training of Kelly Breen and the riding of Elvis Trujillo to back him up.
4- Dujac (2/1)
5- Deep Consideration (7/2)
1- All Day Sucker (6/1)
Race 6: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
The big effort upon debut of the 9, Twist and Turn, merits my selection in here. In that first start, she ran huge all the way around, running in the three-path on the lead, only to miss by just a length. She earned a figure of 70 in that race, which is tied for the best mark in the field. Assuming she gets an easier lead here, and improves off that last race, she should be able to score.
The 5, R Jolley Cassie, ran good figures at Parx over the winter, but hasn't raced since February. The 1, D'Wild Kiss, looks the best among all the first-timers, turning in some great workouts for the hot Derek Ryan barn.
9- Twist and Turn (5/2)
5- R Jolley Cassie (7/2)
1- D'Wild Kiss (8/1)
Race 7: Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Jersey Shore 6 on this Saturday begins with a very wide-open field of claimers going 1 1/16 miles on the grass. After much deliberation, I selected the 6, Examen. He's been steadily improving ever since a dull effort at Tampa in February, running two races of 81 and 84, earning that 84 last out with a driving win at Pimlico. He's run figures in the high 80s in the past, and if he runs back to those races, he'll score.
That being said, there's a few others in here who are dangerous. The 4, Kitten in May, had a tough trip last out, having to check repeatedly behind horses in the stretch. If he gets clear sailing in here--no guarantee--he'll likely go back to his figures in the mid-80s, which would make him a serious threat to win. The 1, Best Actor, has run figures up to 97 this year, but hasn't raced since February.
6- Examen (5/1)
4- Kitten in May (8/1)
1- Best Actor (9/2)
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 4 1/2 Furlongs
First of all, note that Madefromlucky, who is a starter in the Belmont Stakes, made his debut in a 2yo maiden race at Monmouth on Belmont day last year. Will a 2016 Belmont starter be in this race? We'll see.
Anyway, only one horse in this ten-horse bunch has any experience--the 2, Wind Clan Warrior, who lost his debut by five lengths at Gulfstream in May. As such, there's a lot of horses who are without experience, and any pick in here is a guessing game as best. I'll select the 8, Buon Gusto, who has been working excellently at Monmouth, and has the training of Kelly Breen and the riding of Elvis Trujillo. The 9, Full Salute, is also dangerous, as he turned in a dazzling 3 furlong workout in :36.0 a few days ago here.
8- Buon Gusto (4/1)
9- Full Salute (5/1)
10- Second Mate (6/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
My pick in here will be the 3, Red Letter. She was consistent over the winter at Tampa, running figures of 80 in two starts, then declined slightly last out at Monmouth, running behind horses the entire way to earn a 77. One must imagine that, with a cleaner trip, that figure improves.
She was claimed out of that spot by the astute Derek Ryan--who is hitting at 24% on the season--and has been stepped up into allowance company. With a cleaner trip, I think she'll handle the step up well--especially since this is not a great allowance field--and get the job done.
The 1, Fancy Malka, was visually unimpressive last out at Pimlico, but still earned a figure of 80, one of the best in the field, and consistently runs figures in that range. The 9, Wealth Creation, dramatically stepped up to break her maiden in her last start at Aqueduct, and has grass whiz Chad Brown training.
3- Red Letter (8/1)
1- Fancy Malka (6/1)
9- Wealth Creation (7/2)
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I'll take a bit of a flyer with the 6, Doinwhatshelikes. She's among the most consistent members of the field, earning figures of 85, 80 and 85 in her last three. Last time out at Pimlico, she was last almost the whole way around, but started to rally late, only missing by three lengths. With her figures, and a strong closing rally, she's very dangerous in here, for "shore".
The 7, Dragonberry, is the other main contender in here. She has the best last-out figure in the field, of a 91. She was kind of flat last out, rating off the pace and not rallying, but if she runs back to that last race, she'll be tough to beat no matter what.
6- Doinwhatshelikes (5/1)
7- Dragonberry (2/1)
3- Dickinson (3/1)
Race 11: Crank it Up Stakes, 3yo, Fillies, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
The 4, Lady Shipman, is going to be very tough to beat in today's feature. She crushed against similar rivals at Pimlico two starts back, winning by five lengths and earning a 95 brisnet figure. She declined in her last start at Belmont, but still ran a figure of 90, which would still beat everybody in the field. She probably won't be a bettable price, but she'll still be fun to watch, and is a single in any pick 4, pick 5, or Jersey Shore 6 play.
4- Lady Shipman (5/2)
6- Harlan's Honor (5/1)
1- Quaver (7/2)
Race 12: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I just want to take this time to tell anyone reading this to stop wasting their money on Hold Everything. He's not going to win. Thank you.
Anyway, I really like the 2, One For Don. His last two figures are the consistent best in the field, with an 80 and an 87. Last time out, he ran into the aforementioned Steve's Adventures, who ran lights out. He was claimed out of that effort by Jorge Navarro, who hits at 39% first off the claim. He also had a great workout on May 29, suggesting that he's ready to run another big one. With nobody else running those kind of races consistently, One For Don appears to be the one to beat.
2- One For Don (9/5)
8- What the Chub (5/2)
3- Trouble With Girls (6/1)
Bonus Race: Belmont Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/2 Miles
The way I see the race: American Pharaoh goes out for the lead with Materality, brushes him off, looks like he's about to draw off to victory, and Madefromlucky comes up from the back of the pack and beats him. If he's anywhere near his 12/1, he'll be a terrific value.
3- Madefromlucky (12/1)
6- Frosted (5/1)
5- American Pharaoh (3/5)
That's how I see the Belmont day card at Monmouth shaping up. Good luck to everyone playing either Monmouth or Belmont--or both.
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