Need some extra betting money before Belmont's big day of racing on Saturday? Look no further than the first Friday card of the season at Monmouth Park. Here's my take on the action.
Weather Forecast: 66*F, Showers
There is a good chance of rain on Friday, so account for the possibility of an off track and the grass races being moved to the dirt. My analysis will, as such, include both dirt and grass selections for the appropriate races.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, 4 1/2 Furlongs
The two-year-old season begins with six fillies going 4 1/2 furlongs. In a race like this, it's almost impossible to have strong faith in your pick, especially when one considers the fact that no one in the field has run before.
However, I'll take my best shot and select the 2, Hissy Fit, who has been firing bullets in the morning in preparation for this race. Trainer Eddie Plesa also hits at 22% with first time starters. No one else in the field is working as consistently strong as Hissy Fit, so I'll go with her to kick things off.
2- Hissy Fit (9/5)
5- Gauche (1/1)
3- Dance N Denae (5/1)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll do something bold here, and toss the 8, Summer Cove. I know that Paco is riding and Linda Rice is training, which usually means that the horse is a contender. However, he hasn't run since last October, where he was absolutely annihilated on the dirt. He's also in for a career-low tag of $18,000, in a race where he could have run for $20,000, and his most recent workout at Aqueduct was glacially slow. Now, he's run races in the past that would win this one, but I'm dubious he'll repeat that form. I'll go elsewhere.
I'll pick the 1, Moonlight Party, on top instead. Last time out, on May 9 here at Monmouth, he made a strong rally from the back of the pack, coming from 15 lengths back to miss by 2 1/2. He ran a brisnet figure of 75 in that race, which is the best anyone in the field has run on the grass this season. This will be his third start off a brief layoff, so he has the right to improve even more in here. Should this race stay on the grass, he'll be my selection.
I will also pick him to win it if it gets moved to the main track, as he's the only one to consistently run figures in the 70s in dirt routes. Everyone else in the field is a mess over the brown stuff.
Grass:
1- Moonlight Party (5/2)
11- Don'tflashyourcash (8/1)
2- Lucky Balladier (6/1)
Dirt:
1- Moonlight Party
5- Hunter Grey
9- Constantine
Race 3: Claiming $10,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
I'll go with the 2, Run Slado Run, in this spot. He ran a field-best figure of 76 in his last start, and didn't run too badly. He was right on the pace, only to be overtaken by Peter Castleboy, who was a heavy favorite in that race, and was much, much the best in that field. Run Slado Run still ran a solid second, and improved eight points off his maiden score at Tampa. He also figures to be the one who will show the most early speed in the field, so there's a chance that he will cross over to the lead, and win the race very easily.
Eight Cents, shipping in from Belmont, is also one to consider, especially with the dangerous training of Rudy Rodriguez. However, he seems to have a strong dislike for winning. Since his maiden win, he's come in second a whopping five times, and third once. He's a must-use in exactas and trifectas, but his lack of a will to win makes him suspect in my book.
2- Run Slado Run (3/1)
4- Eight Cents (5/2)
6- Tsonga (7/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The 7, Chippette, looks like a standout. Her figures are by far the best in the race, earning a 77, an 80, and a 77 in her last three. In her last race, she was well-beaten, that is true, but the horse she lost to, Arnhem, was much the best on paper there, and got a rail-skimming trip to victory. No such opponent lies in the way of Chippette, and as long as she stays consistent in here, she'll score.
Also ones to consider are the 5, La Chuchi, who ran well on the synthetic track at Arlington last year, but also hasn't raced since February. The 9, Bet U Can't Find Me, has figures that are a decided cut below Chippette, but she should be a contender for the exotics.
7- Chippette (7/2)
5- La Chuchi (3/1)
9- Bet U Can't Find Me (8/1)
Race 5: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's a very wide-open race to begin the Jersey Shore 6 on this Friday, but I went with the 4, Twist N Bake, as my grass selection. She's got the highest overall numbers in the field, consisently running figures in the high 70s-low 80s. She also has early speed from post position 3--the only other horse with that kind of speed, Ghostly Dreams, will have to stretch that speed out to a grass route from a dirt sprint. When Ghostly Dreams folds--which I figure is close to an inevitability--Twist N Bake can easily take over and draw off to the win.
There's a few others to consider, including the 1A, Skipperdee, who ran a sky-high figure of 89 when breaking her maiden at Gulfstream in January. The 5, Jademarie, has good figures and is taking a drop down to claiming company from the allowance levels, but was unforgivably flat in her last race.
If the race is washed away to the dirt, I'll take the 6, Fiery Cat, who earned figures in the 80s on the dirt earlier in the year, easily the best in the field.
Grass:
4- Twist N Bake (3/1)
5- Jademarie (4/1)
1- Quiet Kitten/1A- Skipperdee (5/1)
Dirt:
6- Fiery Cat
7- Jersey Jules
8- Midnight Bounty
Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I think that the 6, Notably Awesome, is a standout in here. In her last race, on May 17 at Monmouth, she broke through the gate before the start of the race, which, in most cases, is a "shore" sign of an impending loss. Yet, she went out to the lead, set her own pace, and almost held on the entire way at 29/1, before Hoopskirt rallied to beat her. Even so, her effort given the circumstances was very game, and she earned a field-best brisnet figure of 73. I imagine she'll improve assuming a normal pre-race routine, and that would make her an easy winner.
Others I like in here are the 2, So Frank, who chased Notably Awesome around the track last out, and the 1, Pica Pica, who ran some decent-but-not-great races at Tampa over the winter.
6- Notably Awesome (7/2)
2- So Frank (5/2)
1- Pica Pica (8/1)
Race 7: Claiming $20,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Another tricky race begins the late pick 4. I went with the 3, Rickashea, who ran some great races over the Gulfstream grass in the winter. He ran a stretch of three straight improving races at this level, going from 79 to 81 to 86. In his last race, he was placed in a 5 furlong sprint, for reasons unknown. He earned a meager 75 in that effort, but he was closing strongly at the end, suggesting that he may have needed more distance. Well, he'll get that distance here, stretching back out to 1 1/16 miles. If he returns to his old form, he'll get the job done here.
On dirt, I will go with the 6, Delta Golf Alpha, who ran well on the dirt in his last start, making ground in the stretch to earn a brisnet figure of 81. That's one of the best numbers on dirt in the field.
Grass:
3- Rickashea (3/1)
1- Quiet Danger (12/1)
7- Pernicious (3/1)
Dirt:
6- Delta Golf Alpha
4- Filosofo
12- Peter Castleboy
Race 8: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The 4, Rocket Man Richie, looks like the one to beat here. His last three races, with figures of 80, 78, and 81, are consistently among the best in the field. His last race was a bit strange, as he drifted out a bit late after drawing off to what looked like a "shore" victory, enabling Pelekas Beach to catch him. However, in that race, he was one of several contenders. No such issue threatens him here, where he's the fastest horse on paper. I'll take him on top here.
The 6, Keepin it Zeal, drew off easily to earn a big figure in his debut, but he hasn't run since that race, and it was against bad maiden claimers at Penn National. Buyer beware on him,
The 1, Indian Fighter, won his maiden last out, despite the sharp drop in price, but his figures also dropped significantly, from an 86 down to a 76. He's in for an even lower tag in here, too. I'll pass on him, but will consider him for spots in the exotics.
4- Rocket Man Richie (2/1)
6- Keepin it Zeal (3/1)
1- Indian Fighter/1A- Byron's Pop (8/5)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
The feature race runs between two horses: the 3, Claiming Victory, and the 4, Sweet Tooth Sweety. I settled on the latter horse as my selection, as she rallied from the back last out to win a n/w1x allowance at Gulfstream, earning a brisnet figure of 87.
Now, I know that Claiming Victory ran a figure of 91 in her last race, but she's struggled at the allowance level--her most recent win came in a straight $20,000 claiming. She's also ridden by Gabriel Saez and trained by Joe Oreseno, neither of whom have been having great meets. Her workouts going into this race are nothing to write home about, either. By contrast, Sweet Tooth Sweety will have the riding services of Paco Lopez, and has been turning in some good drills in preparation for this race. It's for these reasons that I lean toward Sweet Tooth Sweety to get the job done here.
Should this race be moved to the dirt, I will take the 7, Misszippityslewda, who won in laughably easy style on dirt last time out. The 9, True Blue Nation, recently scored a gritty gate-to-wire win at Pimlico, and hopes to draw in from the main-track-only list.
Grass:
4- Sweet Tooth Sweety (5/2)
3- Claiming Victory (3/1)
5- Indian Splendor (2/1)
Dirt:
7- Misszippityslewda
9- True Blue Nation
1- Saturday Storms
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
There's a reason why they call these types of races "getaway races", because if not for people who are losing on the day and are trying to get back on the last race of the day to bail them out, nobody could bet a race like this.
In most cases, that is, for I really like 7, Colonel Jordan. In his two career dirt races, he has earned figures of 71 and 75. If you toss out Fictionalcharacter, who I almost guarantee will never, ever, win a race, he sticks out like a sore thumb among the rest. There's more going for him, too: trainer Jorge Navarro hits at 34% with horses off a layoff, and he turned in a decent workout recently: 4 furlongs in :48.4, in preparation for this race. Now, there's no guarantee that he'll be bettable odds in here, but if you need to get out, he's your best bet.
7- Colonel Jordan (2/1)
4- Espion (6/1)
6- Fictionalcharacter (3/1)
That's my analysis for Friday's card. Hopefully, the skies will clear, and we'll have good weather. Good luck!
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