It's one of the biggest weekends of the year at Monmouth Park: United Nations weekend. It's also the best Friday card of the year, because we'll have eleven races, as opposed to the standard ten. The highlight of this card is the $150,000, grade 3, Molly Pitcher. While none of the seven entered are on the level of past winners, such as Personal Ensign, Lady's Secret, or Inside Information, it's still going to be a fun race.
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I'll begin the Friday festivities with the 6, Bank Fraud. He ran a tremendous race last time out, at this level on June 12. He managed to out-duel Sandman Cometh--who is entered in here--and hung on grimly until the end, when he was run down by favored Ride This Train. Even so, he still earned a brisnet figure of 76, which is the best number in the field. If he can get a clear lead, and nobody else can close (because let's face it, horses in a race like this aren't the closing types), he'll be very dangerous.
The 8, Citi's Ablaze, ran decently in that June 12 race, earning a 66 figure. He seeks to improve off that race. The 2, Just Ace, has run quality figures, but he has not been a serious factor in any races yet. He's one to watch for the exotic spots, but I'm not "shore" if I'd bet him to win, unless the major contenders scratched.
6- Bank Fraud (5/2)
8- Citi's Ablaze (10/1)
2- Just Ace (3/1)
Race 2: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
When nobody in a field looks all that great, it helps if a horse (a) possesses an advantage, no matter how slim, over the rest of the field, and (b) has a hot trainer. On paper, the trainer of the 8, Category, looks ice-cold. Claudio Gonzalez may be only 4-54 at the meet, however, he won two races Sunday. That shows, to me anyway, that he's starting to turn a corner when it comes to his horses. Category possesses a slim speed figure edge, running a 74 in back-to-back races. He's also not declining in form, while virtually everyone else in the race is. Gonzalez also claimed Category out of that race, and he's hitting at 29% first off the claim. All of these put together are signs that he looks ready to go.
The 4, Notional Romance, wasn't dazzling at this level last time out, but turned in a good workout before this race, on June 27. That could mean a form improvement, which may result in victory. The 7, Money Machine, ran up to an 85 earlier in the year, but was dull in his last two at Belmont. Perhaps a move to easier at Monmouth will do the trick for him.
8- Category (9/2)
4- Notional Romance (5/1)
7- Money Machine (3/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
While I don't really expect him to draw off the also-eligible list, the 13, Congrats to Ken, is the most likely winner if he gets in. He struggled against tougher at Belmont, but still earned two credible thirds while running figures as high as 81. Now, he ships in to Monmouth, where he's got a big edge over the rest in the field, most of whom have been running in the 60s. He will have an outside post to navigate, but as long as he runs back to his old form, he has a shot.
Among all those in the main body of the field, the 1, Balfe's Corner, has the best shot. He is also shipping in from Belmont, and ran credibly in his last race, which was his first in five weeks. He wheels back in a week, showing that he's not in bad form (else he wouldn't be coming back this soon), and is ridden by the always-hot Paco Lopez. The 11, Dontflashyourcash, had his race compromised by a wide trip last out; before that, he was one of the fastest in the field.
13- Congrats to Ken (9/5)
1- Balfe's Corner (2/1)
11- Dontflashyourcash (8/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Even though he's coming off a nine-month layoff, the 1, One Lucky Step, is the most likely winner. He ran well in his debut at Indiana Grand last fall, making a five-wide rally to miss by a nose. He was much the best in that race, and that figure of 78 he earned would've been larger if not forced to lose so much ground. Now, he hasn't raced since that effort, but he's working tremendously for this race. Furthermore, trainer Gerald Bennett hits at a solid 18% first off the layoff. He's the most likely winner.
The 5, Elcinico, was ludicrously wide on a hot pace last out. If One Lucky Step doesn't fire first off the long layoff, he's the horse to beat. The 7, Dunkirk Hylton, looks the best out of all the first-time starters, but trainer Terri Pompay does not have a great record with those horses. He may not win here, but if he keeps up his morning form, he'll be one to watch second time out.
1- One Lucky Step (5/1)
5- Elcinico (9/2)
7- Dunkirk Hylton (8/1)
Race 5: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll go with the 9, Kent's Baby Girl. A usual front-runner, she broke through the gate in her last start, and was subsequently lethargic coming out of the gate. Despite being taken out of her element in that race, she made a good rally--showing more late pace than she ever had--and was a solid second. She ran an all-time high figure of 73 there, one of the best figures in the field. If she can get to the lead here, she may be dangerous on the lead. Even if she's kept closer to the pace, she may have improved to the point where she'll be trouble.
The 5, Humantla, won that race that Kent's Baby Girl is coming out of, and improved there to a figure of 75. She'll hope to continue improvement. The 2, Set on Salsa, consistently runs figures in the low 70s, which may be good enough for an exotics spot. However, she's not striking me as the winning type.
One longshot worth considering is the 3, Poochy. In her last race, her second one on the grass, she was wide the entire way around, and flattened to finish sixth. She still improved five points in that race, from a 65 to a 70. If she gets a more inside trip, and keeps improving her figures, she may surprise.
9- Kent's Baby Girl (4/1)
5- Humantla (3/1)
3- Poochy (20/1)
Race 6: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
It's a tough race to begin the Jersey Shore 6, with no obvious standout. Eventually, I wound up settling on the 3, Gypsy Baron, whom I believe was pace compromised in his last start. That day, June 20, he chased a horse named Prague in a six furlong sprint. Prague set an opening quarter of :22.3--hardly a breakneck pace at a sprint distance. With no one around to give him a serious challenge, Prague drew off, and Gypsy Baron couldn't pass his fresh rival. It doesn't hurt that Gypsy Baron earned a 93 in that race, best among all horses in the field. He's run good races in routes in the past, and trainer Claudio Gonzalez hits at 31% with the "sprint-sprint-route" angle.
The 7, North Ocean, got entangled in a duel in his last start vs. similar; he hopes to avoid doing that again. Ideally, he'll rate off whoever is leading and try to pass them. The 2, Allstar, ran well before declining sharply in his last start, although he did re-rally strongly in that effort.
3- Gypsy Baron (3/1)
7- North Ocean (5/2)
2- Allstar (7/2)
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
My pick is the 2, Tune Me In. In his last race against similar, he finished a solid third, earning a field-best figure of 95. The only horse in here to do that recently is the 1, Cut to Order, who earned a 94 in his last race at Pimlico. There, he managed to set a clear lead, with little pace pressure. Here, Tune Me In, who is directly to his outside, should rate just off him, enabling Tune Me In to blow by and win.
The 6, With Exultation, consistently runs figures in the high-80s, just a tick off what it usually takes to win these types of races, but if the inside two regress, he may win this race yet.
2- Tune Me In (3/1)
6- With Exultation (4/1)
1- Cut to Order (7/2)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w2x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
A stakes-quality field lines up in this Jersey-bred allowance. I will eat chalk in here and pick the 6, Loverbil, only because I think the pace is going to set up for him. In his last race, also against Jersey-breds on June 13, he sat off a speed duel, then rolled on by and won by 2 1/2 lengths. A lot of the horses that were dueling in that race--such as the inside two, Zeavelo and Chubilicious. I expect a similar trip as last time, and a similar outcome.
6- Loverbil (2/1)
1- Zealevo (7/2)
5- Gadget Man (10/1)
Race 9: Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take a shot with the inside horse: the 1, Very Playful. She wasn't great in her last start, running a lukewarm sixth. However, now she's stepping down into claiming company, where she may find the going easier. Before that last race, which was her first outing in more than three months, she had earned figures of 85 and 84, which would put her among the best in the race. She also gets a jockey upgrade to Paco Lopez. Now, Very Playful's no cinch in this wide-open affair, but she's the most likely winner. I wouldn't bet her to win at a low price, but she's a must-use in multi-race wagers.
The 5, The Real McCoy, has shown an incredible closing kick in back-to-back races, and has to be respected. The 7, Dance With Gio, hung on well after a wide trip in her last start. Unfortunately for her, her post means she may get a similar trip.
1- Very Playful (4/1)
5- The Real McCoy (4/1)
7- Dance With Gio (6/1)
Race 10: Molly Pitcher, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll be the first to say it: this field is underwhelming.
Anyway, I'll go with the 2, Got Lucky. Her last three figures are 101, 98, and 94, three of the best figures in the race. She just missed in the Monmouth Beach Stakes, over this track, where she was caught late by Stiffed. Even so, she's shown the best form consistently in the race, so she'll be my pick.
However, Stiffed cannot be disregarded in this race, especially considering her strong kick when upsetting the Monmouth Beach. She looks like the kind of horse who is improving, and is a strong candidate to score one for the Jersey-breds in this race.
2- Got Lucky (4/5)
1- Stiffed (4/1)
7- Shayjolie (7/2)
Race 11: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
A claiming field of fillies and mares wraps up the Friday proceedings. I'll go with the 10, Double Desert, who ran well at Gulfstream earlier in the year. She was consistently running figures in the mid-70s, giving her a big edge over the rest of the competition. Of course, trainer Jorge Navarro can't be disregarded, either. If you need to get out, and make some more money for the United Nations day card, she's your best bet.
10- Double Desert (2/1)
4- La Chuchi (3/1)
1- So Frank (7/2)
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