Thursday, July 23, 2015

July 24, 2015: Picks and Analysis

It may be opening day at Saratoga, but that doesn't mean that the party stops at Monmouth Park. Ten races are on tap for the Friday card: the last Friday card before Haskell week. Here's what I think will happen:

Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The name of this field's game is inconsistency. No one in this field has shown steadily great form, while none of them are consistently mediocre, either. To make things more complicated, the amount of late speed that all of these runners show varies greatly from race to race. As such, it's easy to designate this one as a crapshoot.
I'll take my best hack at it, and go with the 1, Chocolate Wildcat. He had shown good form on the dirt as a two-year-old last year, before disappointing on the grass over the winter at Gulfstream. Now, he moves back to dirt, where he has early speed from the inside. Trainer Jason Servis also hits at a solid 23% rate with horses off a long layoff. I can't call him a "shore" thing in here, but he's a likely winner.
The 6, Cloudy River, was third at this level last out, and makes his debut for trainer Michael Moore. The 5, Jimmy Connors, disappointed at this level in his last race, but his form was good prior to then, and he may have needed a race.
1- Chocolate Wildcat (5/2)
6- Cloudy River (7/2)
5- Jimmy Connors (8/5)

Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I'll take the 3, Allie Sweet. She last ran at Parx at this level, and got away to an awkward start. She recovered to battle for the early lead, but didn't quit that badly and wound up fourth, beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Her brisnet figure in that race was a 70, which she earns virtually every time out. If nothing else, she's consistent. With a clean break this time, she'll be more forwardly placed without pressure to get up near the lead, and that means that she should have enough left for a winning stretch drive.
The 5, Callmewhachuwant, stretches out to a route from a sprint; she ran up to an 80 sprinting, and will hope to stretch out that good form. The 4, Single Handed, has the most early speed, and hopes to regain her good winter form.
3- Allie Sweet (3/1)
5- Callmewhachuwant (6/1)
4- Single Handed (2/1)

Race 3: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
In a field full of bad maiden claimers, the 7, Key d'Oro, looks the least bad. Her grass figures have all been in the high 60s, making her one of the few fillies in the race to pull that off. She also has the dangerous combination of trainer Marcus Vitali and jockey Orlando Bocachica. The former, especially, has been dangerous with grass horses. A slight improvement--or even holding steady at her current form--should be good enough.
The 3, Royal Stage, showed lots of early speed sprinting, and hopes to stretch that out to a route. The 4, Waki Girl, ran a field-best figure of 69 in her last race, and was caught late after making a premature move on the turn. With better timing, she may be able to pull it off.
7- Key d'Oro (5/2)
4- Waki Girl (3/1)
3- Royal Stage (3/1)

Race 4: Claiming $7,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I won't lie and say I'm in love with him; you can't find a better horse than Better Man. Breaking from the 6 post, this horse is a standout. His last three figures are 84, 82, and 70, which are the best in the field by a lot. He's also got the best late speed figures in the race by a longshot. While the rest of the field will be tiring out, he'll be accelerating away from the rest of the pack.
The 1, Alpha Dude, was second in back-to-back routes before winning at a sprint, he showed good form while routing. The 7, Ausable River, led late last time out before being caught; he had drastic improvement in that spot.
6- Better Man (2/1)
1- Alpha Dude (5/2)
7- Ausable River (4/1)

Race 5: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 6, Lighthouse Sound, has already shown a great affinity for the grass here at Monmouth, winning his first two starts of the year here. His figures were already the best in the field, earning a 93 in his last race. Now, he's making his first start for Jamie Ness, who claimed him out of that last start. Ness hits at a very high 36% with horses first off the claim. With horses who stand out like Lighthouse Sound, it's close to a "shore" thing.
The 5, Yari, was third and fourth at the n/w2x allowance optional claiming level, and now takes a drop down to straight claimers. His figures were strong at that level. The 7, Mythical Man, ran big last out before being caught by Lighthouse Sound late, and is a strong candidate to round out the exotics.
6- Lighthouse Sound (3/1)
5- Yari (5/2)
7- Mythical Man (5/1)

Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Two horses jump out in here: the 2, Loverbil, and the 3, Doddsprivatelabel. Loverbil has won two out of three races this year at Monmouth, and is coming off a come-from-behind score as the favorite in a Jersey-bred allowance. Doddsprivatelabel is coming in from Parx, and he's won his last two races. Their figures are similar: Loverbil has earned a 96, 93, and 97 in his last three, while Doddsprivatelabel has run a 93, 91, and 96. I give the slight advantage to Doddsprivatelabel, as I think his late speed is slightly better than that of Loverbil. However, win money should go to the horse who's the better value, as their chances of winning are, in my book, essentially equal.
3- Doddsprivatelabel (2/1)
2- Loverbil (3/2)
4- Cho Time (7/2)

Race 7: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
My pick to begin the late pick 4 is the 2, No Tunes. She's shipping in from Belmont, where she was a respectable fourth and third, respectively, while grass sprinting. Her figures, however, are the best in this field, earning an 80 in all three races. I'll take her to score against the rest of these.
The 1, Shimmering Cara, makes her third start off the layoff, and trainer Terri Pompay hits at 26% with those types of horses. The 3, Have a Taste, ran a respectable 76 in her lone career grass race, which was a victory. That figure should get her in the exotics, and some slight improvement makes her a win candidate.
2- No Tunes (4/1)
1- Shimmering Cara/1A- Wildcat Gaze (7/2)
3- Have a Taste (5/1)

Race 8: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
It's not easy picking an 0-12 maiden, but in a race like this, the 1, Play it Again, is the most likely winner despite that record. He made up some mild ground in his last start, against similar competition. He started off eight lengths off the lead, but made some mild progress to lose by only about six. He earned a figure of 69 in that race, one of the best numbers in the field. His late speed is also terrific, which gives him the edge he may need.
The 3, Scobeyville, hasn't hit the board in six races, but his figures indicate that he may have found a spot where he can win. The 2, Cayden Can, was fourth at this level in his debut, and seeks to improve here.
1- Play it Again (8/1)
3- Scobeyville (4/1)
2- Cayden Can (3/1)

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
My play here will be the 6, Oak Bluffs. He's already won a grass sprint at Monmouth this season, with a strong closing rally off a fast pace. He'll be making his first start since that May 30 effort, and he's worked at Delaware to prepare for this spot. Trainer Jamie Ness hits at a sharp 27% with horses off that long of a layoff. It all adds up to a solid play.
The 1A, Fast Flying Rumor, won the Select Stakes last out with an easy gate-to-wire trip. No doubt he has ability, but he may have a harder time getting that kind of pace in here. The 5, Deterrent, gave way in his last race after setting the pace. He'll have to show more guts to win this race.
6- Oak Bluffs (2/1)
1- One Buck Roma/1A- Fast Flying Rumor (5/2)
5- Deterrent (5/2)

Race 10: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I know that the 3, Start Jumping, is taking a major class drop here, all the way down to the $5,000 level. However, it's difficult to ignore the fact that he's the best horse in the race. He earned an 86 in his last race, the best in the field by thirteen points. He's shown ability at routes before, and in that last race, he was compromised by a slow start. After that break, he was rushed up to be near the pace, only to flatten out. Now, I'll concede he's the most likely winner, but he's "shore" to be overbet, and I'm guardedly optimistic about his chances to win at this point.
If Start Jumping doesn't fire, the 7, Panama Hat, looks good. He made a strong closing rally to get third in his last race, earning a figure of 72. The 8, Bo Badger, led late before being caught in his last race.
3- Start Jumping (1/1)
7- Panama Hat (8/1)
8- Bo Badger (6/1)

The first race on Friday is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!

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