12 races are scheduled for Sunday at Monmouth, headlined by the $60,000 Klassy Briefcase Stakes, for female grass sprinters.
Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 2yo, 5 Furlongs
It's a maiden claiming race for two-year-olds. An Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez first timer is usually a safe bet. That's what the 6, Patio Games, is. That sounds pretty good to me!
6- Patio Games (5/2)
2- Awesome Ghost (3/1)
3- True Ranger (5/1)
Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
A wide open, difficult race for n/w2 claimers lies ahead. My pick is the 6, Exclusive Symphony. In her last race, she was second at this level, earning a respectable brisnet figure of 74. She had earned a solid 73 two races back, showing that that kind of form is not a fluke. Furthermore, in a race with a lot of early speed, she's got more late speed than the rest of them. I'll take her in this spot.
The 7, Chili's Cowgirl, was disappointing in her first start of the season, but made a mild closing rally before fading. The 3, On Oaks Day, moves back to the dirt, where her form was much better.
6- Exclusive Symphony (7/2)
7- Chili's Cowgirl (6/1)
3- On Oaks Day (3/1)
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll pick the 5, Tell Tale Friend. He crushed a n/w1x field last out by four easy lengths. Before that, he just missed after leading the whole way around. He earned figures of 92 and 98 in those two races. And, unlike some of the others here, he doesn't stop on the lead. Rather, he just keeps going, as evidenced by those two races. I think he'll be on or near the lead, then shake them off and win.
The 6, Pomeroy's Package has a very similar profile: good figures, early speed, and late pace. Both horses have great jockeys--McCarthy on Pomeroy's Package, Bocachica on Tell Tale Friend. Both have capable trainers--Navarro with Tell Tale Friend, Cibelli with Pomeroy's Package. Tell Tale Friend has a slight edge on figures, but both horses are worth consideration.
5- Tell Tale Friend (3/1)
6- Pomeroy's Package (5/2)
1- Battled/1A- Songa (7/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The 1, Keepin it Zeal, looks the most likely. He's got the best figures in the field, running an 84 and an 82 among his last three races. He's also got early speed from post position 1, meaning that he's got the best spot to pop out to the front and draw away to victory.
The 9, Talk Show Talent, ships in from Parx, where he was competitive at this level. He's a strong candidate for the exotic spots. The 8, Joni's Wildcat, narrowly missed last out, and has been working well preparing for this spot.
1- Keepin it Zeal/1A- Zealous Sky (5/2)
9- Talk Show Talent (4/1)
8- Joni's Wildcat (5/1)
Race 5: Claiming $30,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 5, Frogman Mel, looks like the best. He makes his first start for trainer Marcos Zulueta, who hits at 20% when training for the first time. His figures have also slowly been ascending, up from 75 to 82 to 85. He'll be my selection in this spot.
The 6, Call Wil, has strong early and late speed, so a gate-to-wire win from him is definitely possible. The 8, Ginger Goose, was outkicked in his last start at this level, but his figures still make him a candidate for an exotic position.
5- Frogman Man (5/2)
6- Call Wil (7/2)
8- Ginger Goose (3/1)
Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Even on the surface, the 7, Bobby V, looks like a contender. His three most recent races are 77, 79, and 73. That would place him in the mix anyway, but what separates him from the rest is the fact that it's his first start with Jamie Ness training. Ness hits at a mind-boggling 36% first off the claim. When you take into account his consistently good form, Bobby V looks very tough to beat.
The 3, PJ's Magical Wink, has sharp late speed and good figures. The 5, Bat Cave, sharply improved in his last race, but who knows if that 83 that he earned is legit. I say buyer beware.
7- Bobby V (3/1)
3- PJ's Magical Wink (7/2)
5- Bat Cave (4/1)
Race 7: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
A wide-open field of claimers begins the Sunday Jersey Shore 6. My pick in here is the 8, Subpoena. Her recent figures are among the best in the field, earning a 77, 85, and 80 in her last three. She's also getting some much-needed class relief, dropping from n/w1x allowance company down to claimers. She looks like she'll fit better in here.
The 7, Bobs Pinup Girl, ships in from Belmont Park, where her figures were competitive. However, both her trainer and jockey have been cold as of late. The 3, Echale Salsita, ran well last out at this level, and will benefit if she's kept closer to the pace.
8- Subpoena (3/1)
7- Bobs Pinup Girl (7/2)
3- Echale Salsita (5/1)
Race 8: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I picked the 9, Naughty Delite, in his last race, and he responded with a win. I lean towards him once again in this spot. He's one of the few in the field to consistently run figures in the mid-70s, with a field-best 76 in his last effort. He's also got a lot of late speed, so there's a great chance of him rolling by his tired comrades and winning his second straight.
The 3, Alpha Dude, also earned a 76 in that last effort. and is now cutting back to a sprint from a route. Trainer Jamie Ness hits at 28% with that angle. The 5, Hereosaurus Rex, hopes to rebound following two disappointing efforts at this level.
9- Naughty Delite (7/2)
3- Alpha Dude (5/2)
5- Hereosaurus Rex (7/2)
Race 9: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's the second division of the $12.5k claimers race that was previously run in race 7. My pick leans toward the far outside in here, and that's the 11, Lady's Lunar Luck. Her three most recent figures, all earned at Parx and Belmont, were 78, 81, and 80, placing her in the upper echelon of the field. In that last race at Parx, she made up almost ten lengths to just miss. That makes her very dangerous in this spot, and I'll take her to begin the late pick 4.
11- Lady's Lunar Luck (5/2)
1- Fava (3/1)
8- Precious Paula (9/2)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Given that Paco Lopez is named on both halves of the Eddie Plesa entry in here, it is likely that only one of them will run. Hopefully, he will choose the 1A, Walk Away Slow, because he's the most likely winner. He ran well in his first start off the layoff, checking on the turn yet still running a solid third. His figure of 81 in that race is competitive on its own, and he had earned up to an 87 in the past, which would make him much the best.
The 11, Little Hitman, has also shown good form this year, but he'll have some trouble from post 12. The 6, Behr in the Woods, made a sharp closing rally two starts back, and hopes to rebound off a dull effort at Parx last out.
1- Ride This Train/1A- Walk Away Slow (7/2)
11- Little Hitman (3/1)
6- Behr in the Woods (6/1)
Race 11: Klassy Briefcase Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
She may give me a heart attack rounding the far turn, however, the deep-closing 9, Joya Real, is my pick. In her last race, in the Very One Stakes at Pimlico, she closed furiously to miss by only 3/4 of a length. That was also her first start of the season; despite all that, her figure there was a 95. She's consistently shown herself to be a very fast mare sprinting, and if she's near her 5/1 morning line, that would make her an appealing prospect.
The 2, Lady Shipman, is a personal favorite of mine, and she dominated the Crank it Up Stakes in her last race. She may not be fast enough to get to the early lead, however, which might spell trouble. The 5, Indian Splendor, dominated a n/w2x field over this track last out, and improved strongly in that effort.
9- Joya Real (5/1)
2- Lady Shipman (4/1)
5- Indian Splendor (6/1)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The 12, Frolicking Gal, is the way to go. The reason is, quite simply, Jorge Navarro. He's great with horses taking big class drops (as illustrated by Percussion on Friday), and hits at a whopping 41% with horses second off the layoff. That means, just based on that stat, she is worth a bet is more than 6/5. Don't count on it, though.
12- Frolicking Gal (7/2)
8- O'Lucey (4/1)
4- Caroline's Comedy (3/1)
No comments:
Post a Comment