United Nations weekend is over, and there's still eleven racing days until the Haskell. In the meantime, there's still plenty of good racing, starting with Friday's program.
Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, NJ-bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The only one of the six to have any experience is the 5, Runaway Train, who has earned brisnet figures of 70 in each of her two starts. She steps down into Jersey-bred company, off of two good efforts against open maidens. In her first effort, she battled boldly down the stretch, only to miss by a head. Her second start was not as impressive, but she still managed a decent second. In a field of Jersey-bred maidens, it's unlikely that there are any superstars in here. As such, a slight improvement off that 70 will probably be enough to get the job done.
Among all the first-timers in here, the 3, White Knuckle Ride, looks the best. She's got the Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez combination. The 6, Silver Majorette, has some decent workouts coming into this race, but trainer Terri Pompay is less-than-impressive with first-time starters.
5- Runaway Train (2/1)
3- White Knuckle Ride (9/5)
6- Silver Majorette (7/2)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
My pick in here is the 2, Keep the Canoli. He was beaten by six lengths in his last start, but that was against $16,000 SOC company. Now, he drops down to the $5,000 level, where his last-out figure of 84 looks to be one of the best in the field. Earlier in the year at Parx, he earned up to an 89 in a route. Furthermore, he's got enough early speed that he can control the pace if he wants to, and has enough late pace to hold off the leaders. He's my pick to round out the early double.
The 6, Dubious Bachelor, earned that same figure of 84 last out at this level. He doesn't have the back form of Keep the Canoli, but is nonetheless a serious threat. The 4, Key to a Cure, has had some decent closing rallies in the past, and has the potential to run well if the pace melts.
2- Keep the Canoli (3/2)
6- Dubious Bachelor (5/2)
4- Key to a Cure (8/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
It's not the best of fields in here, so it's a good time to experiment and find a bit of a dark horse. That horse for me is the 7, Acqua Bella. She was dismissed at 56/1 in her first start, at this level, However, she made an impressive five-wide move to the lead. Even though she wound up fourth, beaten nine lengths, she was only three lengths behind the second-place finishers. She earned a figure of 71 in that race, the second-best number in the field. With a more ground-saving trip and a race under her belt, I project some improvement. That would likely mean victory.
The 8, Royal Stage, was a length clear of Acqua Bella last out, while saving two lengths of ground more. She's also got a far outside post, which may cause her to lose more ground. The 4, St. Abbey, makes her second start off the layoff, and possesses some of the best late speed figures in the race.
7- Acqua Bella (5/1)
8- Royal Stage (3/1)
4- St. Abbey (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $7,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 5, Brother Mark, is going to be hard to beat in here. Two out of his last three figures are 82 and 77, which would blow away anyone else in the field. As long as he runs back to either one of those races, he'll be next to impossible to beat.
Of course, it's still possible to make money by using horses underneath. The 4, Atajo, ships in from Penn National, where he has a tendency to break slowly. However, his closing speed, compared to the rest of the field, means that he can still rally and get an exotic spot. The 1A, Tiznow a Titan, has been running steadily improving figures, and could provide a bonanza underneath.
5- Brother Mark (7/5)
4- Atajo (4/1)
1- Dontellyourmother/1A- Tiznow a Titan (12/1)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Jersey Shore 6 begins with a bunch of horses that are almost indistinguishably mediocre. I'll take a stab with the 6, Rain On Fire. In her lone grass start to date, on June 20 here at Monmouth, she finished a fairly distant fourth, earning a figure of 68 in that race. Her late speed numbers are decent, and she has the possibility of improving off of that race. Now, I'm not saying that Rain On Fire is a cinch, or is even that great of a horse, but in a race like this, she's worth a shot.
The 7, Just Like Kaki, possesses a lot of early speed and has run figures up to 76 in the past. The 1, Bourbon Tune, is also an esoteric longshot, but showed some decent late speed in her last grass start. She can clunk up for an exotic spot, for "shore".
6- Rain on Fire (6/1)
7- Just Like Kaki (3/1)
1- Bourbon Trace (30/1)
Race 6: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
In his last race, the 7, Broad Rule, was much the best. Despite being hung very wide the entire way around, he drew off to win by 2 1/2 lengths (although he was later disqualified), earning a figure of 86. Assuming that he manages to save more ground in here, he can definitely jump off that figure. And based off the way that this race sets up, he just might. The way he rates among other horses in terms of pace, there's a chance he can slide in off the early leaders, then take over once they fade. If he doesn't get into any more trouble with the stewards, expect to cash on him.
The 1, How Convenient, has the McCarthy-Ness combination on his side, plus three ascending figures. The 4, Joey Whispers, has the best last-out figure in the race, of 90.
7- Broad Rule (8/1)
1- How Convenient/1A- Dancing Lion (7/2)
4- Joey Whispers (7/2)
Race 7: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
I'll go with the 9, George Cross. He may have been overmatched against stakes company last out; he was competitive at this level prior to that race. Also, his figure of 83 in that last outing is the best in the race. In this wide-open field, he's "shorely" worth a good look, and hopefully will be a decent price.
9- George Cross (3/1)
5- Hudson Miracle (5/2)
3- Stableford (3/1)
Race 8: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If the 5, Backwater Blues, runs back to his recent form, he'll be tough to beat. In his last start, he ran a figure of 91, while showing some sharp late closing speed. Here, he figures to sit off of the pace, then make a big closing rally to win it.
The 6, Pacific Image, has run some decent figures, but is being ridden by the ice-cold Andre Worrie. Watch for him in the exotics, but buyer beware on him for the win spot. The 1, Right on Course, steps down from starter allowance company, and may find the going more to his liking in this spot.
5- Backwater Blues (4/1)
6- Pacific Image (8/1)
1- Right on Course (2/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
It's a well-known fact that the 9, Shesfromboston, loves Monmouth. In fact, she's won her last two races here, running figures of 87 and 81, respectively. She turned in a great workout at Fair Hill prior to this race, showing that she's ready to fire another big one here. So with a horse who loves Monmouth, has improving form, and should be a good value, is it possible to go wrong? The answer is no.
If she draws off the also-eligible list, the 10, Marabea, is dangerous. Trainer Christophe Clement hits at 23% with horses making their first start in the United States. The 7, Nisharora, ran a career-best first off the layoff last off the layoff and seeks to improve here.
9- Shesfromboston (8/1)
10- Marabea (3/1)
7- Nisharora (4/1)
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Even with her outside post 12, one might think that it's hard to see the 11, Twist and Turn, getting beat in here. Her last three figures are 68, 69, and 70. Only one horse in the field has earned as high as a 68 in her last three. My only issue with her, and the thing that prevents me from really going crazy, is that she's been favored in all three of her starts this year, but she's lost all of them. While I know she really jumps off the page here, she looked like a standout in her last race, and ran a disappointing third. She's the most likely winner, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
The 4, Nautical Breezes, ran a (relatively) decent figure in her last race, and seeks to improve second off the layoff. The 5, Well Up, has some good late speed numbers, and hopes to return to the form of her first career start.
11- Twist and Turn (8/5)
4- Nautical Breezes (15/1)
5- Well Up (8/1)
The first race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!
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