Want to know what happened on Saturday at Monmouth? Look no further.
Race 1 (Stately Defence, Marcus Vitali-Nik Juarez, 1:10.3)
Bettors watching this one had to be confused early on, as both Vitali horses--Stately Defence and More Than Special--dueled with each other the entire way around. However, they were so much better than anyone else, they ran 1-2 anyway. Stately Defence, in particular, drew away to win by six easy lengths.
Race 2 (Sweet on Smokey, Kathleen Demasi-Paco Lopez, 1:39.3)
There was a scary moment at the start of this race, with Ka Buki Rose falling down not long after the gates opened. To my knowledge, both Ka Buki Rose and jockey Angel Serpa emerged unscathed.
As for the rest of the field, Sweet on Smokey galloped past the rest on the turn and won by six lengths under a hand ride. If she had been asked more down the stretch, it could've been a much larger margin. Fortunately, if you bet her, you got paid no matter what the margin was.
Race 3 (Kinsley, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:42.4)
Favored Kinsley burned out Sudden Snowstorm down the backstretch, then rolled around the turn and won going away. Nothing to it.
Race 4 (Drago's Best, Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, 1:02.4)
The first-time gelding angle sometimes gets overlooked, but make no mistake, it can be dangerous. Drago's Best was running as a gelding for the first time, and held off the menacing shadow of Pool Winner the whole way around to get the job done. Astute bettors who noted the "ultimate equipment change" were rewarded with a $9.20 win payoff.
Race 5 (Strike Em Down, Greg Sacco-Gabriel Saez, 1:39.1)
It took fifteen tries, but Strike Em Down finally found a field he could beat. Here, the pace-setters tired themselves out, and Strike Em Down rolled by them on the turn to win by five easy lengths.
Race 6 (Gottcha Blessin, Tony Wilson-Jose Ferrer, 1:46.1)
All aboard the merry-go-round! Gottcha Blessin, Video Mov, and Mi Amore made up the top three the entire way around, and nobody passed them. Yawn.
Race 7 (Lucky Balladier, J. Thompson-Abel Castellano, 1:43.1)
Lucky Balladier was bet down from 9/5 to 6/5 in the last flash, which is never a great thing. He didn't really run like a 6/5 shot, however, as he sat a beautiful trip off the leaders on the inside, angled wide in the stretch, and then had to grind past 23/1 shot Bold Runner. Still, a win remains a win.
Race 8 (Golden Earrings, Pat McBurney-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.3)
Despite her superiority over the field, and a fast pace to run at, 3/5 favorite Fakery could do no better than third. Golden Earrings took advantage, however, rallying strongly around the turn to draw off to victory. 33/1 Huachuca snuck up the inside to score second, and beat out Fakery for that spot.
Race 9 (Red Letter, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:42.3)
Another race that was over very quickly, with Red Letter jumping out to a clear lead and skipping home unchallenged. Rhythm Queen rallied strongly on the outside to score second and be the best of the rest.
Race 10 (Early Entry, Kathleen O'Connell-Jose Ferrer, 1:41.3)
Early Entry answered the question of "can he stretch out?" with a resounding "yes". He rated off the fast pace by Secretive, made his move around the far turn, and held off all his rivals. Just Call Kenny went off at 3/2 and just missed to finish second. Considering the pace was a crawl turning for home, that narrow miss may not be as impressive as it looks on paper.
Race 11 (Nonna's Boy, Todd Pletcher-Chris DeCarlo, 1:41.0)
Nonna's Boy made his grass debut count, winning the Lamplighter Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion. The final time of 1:41.0 is also pretty impressive, and certainly makes one wonder if he's found a home on grass. We'll see if he shows up in another stakes next. The Hall of Fame Stakes, at Saratoga on August 7, comes to mind.
Race 12 (No Brody No, Pat McBurney-Abel Castellano, 1:46.4)
Pat McBurney had won only one race all year going into Saturday. This race marked his second win of the day. You can't explain some of this stuff.
His winner here, No Brody No, rated off the leaders, then got into a long, long drive and eventually overtook leading Splitter to get the job done.
Sunday, July 19, 2015
Saturday, July 18, 2015
July 19, 2015: Picks and Analysis
It's an 11 race card on Haskell Car Show Day at Monmouth Park. As a matter of fact, we are only two weeks away from the aforementioned Haskell, featuring the great American Pharoah. It looks as if he will have up to eight challengers in that race. Good stuff!
Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy
It's gettin' hot in here...
Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'm not exactly saying anything Earth-shattering here, but the 3, Musket Mary, is unbeatable in the opener. Her last three brisnet figures are 93, 83, and 83. That means that her worst over her last three is five points better than anyone else's last three. This filly may give American Pharoah a run for his money as the shortest-priced favorite of the season.
3- Musket Mary (4/5)
1- I Just Wanna Win (3/1)
5- House Red (9/2)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
You know, I looked at the entries for today's card, and I saw there was a $10,000 maiden claiming for older horses here. Then, I saw that the next race is the exact same thing, only at six furlongs. My mind remains boggled by that, and it may be a while yet before it gets unboggled.
Anyway, this is a wide-open race here, and is one of the few maiden claiming races all season that is fun to handicap. I wound up settling on the 2, Zeal Genius. At this level last out, he led almost the entire way around, only to get caught down the stretch. He still improved sharply in that race, moving up six points. He's the only one in the field to consistently run figures in the upper-60s, without being a chronic maiden. I'll take a shot.
The 5, Malekith, ran solidly in his first start off the layoff, and only lost to Zeal Genius by 1/2 length. He may improve with a race in him. The 8, Hunter Grey, ran figures in the 70s over the winter at Aqueduct, but sports an unsightly 0-18 lifetime record.
2- Zeal Genius (5/2)
5- Malekith (3/1)
8- Hunter Grey (8/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Another race, another standout. The 7, Yourthekingjimmy, looks as much of a "shore" thing as possible. His last three figures are 75, 71, and 64, which blow everyone else in the field away. He looked clear down the stretch in his last race, before being run down by Naughty Delite. However, Yourthekingjimmy was not the standout in that race like he is in this one. Here, he looks to be miles the best. I don't see him losing.
7- Yourthekingjimmy (4/5)
6- Full Pads (9/2)
3- Super Garces (8/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
A big field of twelve greets us in here. My pick is the 6, Double Desert. She was decent last out in her first race off the layoff, finishing third at this level. Her figures are all in the 70s, making her one of the best and most consistent members of the field. Her late speed is also an asset, as she figures to sit off the pace, and roll by with some of the best late speed figures in the race.
The 9, Shes Tuff as Nails, was second in that race that Double Desert also exits. This one's got a great chance as well. The 7, Sandbag, finally finds a race where she may be able to hang on near the end. Watch for her at a price.
6- Double Desert (3/1)
9- Shes Tuff as Nails (7/2)
7- Sandbag (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
The early pick 5 ends on a very tricky note. Pretty much anyone in this race can win it. Because of that, it helps to find a horse with something that makes them stand out a bit. The 6, I Ain't Waitin, has a few positive attributes. He's making his third start off the layoff, and ran well at Parx before that. He gets a major jockey upgrade, too, as he'll be ridden by Paco Lopez. That gives him the edge that he'll need to win this one.
The 5, Pasta Giovanni, ships up from Florida, where he ran some decent races against similar competition. The 1, How You, drops down into maiden claiming competition, which might just be the level that he needs.
6- I Ain't Waitin (3/1)
5- Pasta Giovanni (5/1)
1- How You (7/2)
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
It's a fun field of six hard-knocking horses. My pick is the 5, Saturday Special. I know I won't get much value on him, but I do know that he absolutely demolished a similar field last out, earning a field-best figure of 94. He's got the best early speed and the best late speed in the race by far, so it should be a cruise around the track for him.
The 2, Keep the Canoli, defeated a field at the $5,000 in his last race, earning a 93. He's got a strong chance at second or third, and is a must-use in those spots. The 1, Gypsy Baron, ran third behind Joe Tess, who freaked in that race, last out. He looks to rebound off that effort.
5- Saturday Special (8/5)
2- Keep the Canoli (7/2)
1- Gypsy Baron (4/1)
Race 7: Starter Handicap, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
Another terrific field has lined up here. I'll take the classiest and fastest horse in the field: the 9, Cement Clement. He was right in the thick of things the whole way around the Elkwood Stakes last out, losing by only half a length. He earned a figure of 96 in that race, which matched his race before that. In addition, jockey Kaylia Albright comes up from Delaware just to ride him--a good sign. This horse looks like a "shore" bet.
The 1, More Zen Tea, just missed in a n/w1x allowance last out, and is an appealing prospect at 10/1. The 8, Cut to Order, hopes to wire this field, and has the speed to possibly do that again.
9- Cement Clement (5/2)
1- More Zen Tea (10/1)
8- Cut to Order (9/2)
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
A lot of horses in this field have plenty of experience in here. Somewhat ironically, I'll go with the 7, Tidal Surge, who has made only one career start. However, it was an impressive one, winning a maiden race easily at Delaware Park. Her figure in that race was a 95, which is easily the best in the field. Her late speed is also much stronger than the rest of the horses's, so she could not only win this one, but win it big. After that, who knows what she could do from here?
The 5, Miss Wilby, was third and fourth at this level this year at Monmouth. In the earlier race, she lost to eventual Delaware Oaks winner Calamity Kate. The 3, Love Came to Town, has been electrifying in sprints so far, and hopes to extend her brilliance to routes.
7- Tidal Surge (2/1)
5- Miss Wilby (6/1)
3- Love Came to Town (6/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
Much to the surprise of most people, Cali Thirty Seven ran well in her grass debut, finishing third at 41/1. Now, she makes her second grass start, in a race where she appears to be one of the best in here. Her last figure was 83. which is the best last-out figure in the field. In a very-wide open field like this one, she has the edge. Hopefully, she'll be a good price--a 9/2 morning line is promising.
The 9, Babe's Ruler, defeated a field of n/w2 claimers with an overland trip in her last race. The 10, Forest Funds, narrowly missed in her last effort, and trainer Ramon Preciado hits at 26% first off the claim.
5- Cali Thirty Seven (9/2)
9- Babe's Ruler (6/1)
10- Forest Funds (7/2)
Race 10: Miss Woodford Stakes, 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
A crack field of eleven filly sprinters has assembled for the Miss Woodford Stakes. Miss Woodford, for those who may not know, won the 1883 Monmouth Oaks, and was considered the premier female horse of her time. She was inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame in 1967.
Anyway, it's a very tough race in here. I'll go with the Florida shipper, the 2, Sky Gold. In her last race, at Gulfstream, she easily defeated a n/w1x allowance field by three lengths, earning a figure of 91. While that places her in the mix with a few others, what makes that race notable is that it was her first start off a five-month layoff. When breaking her maiden in January, she earned a figure of 97, which places her at the top of this bunch. She's got a good inside post, a jockey who knows the track, and a rating style coupled with solid late speed. I've tabbed her to bring home the money here.
My rooting interests lie with the 1, Bustin Out, who defeated a field of Jersey-breds in insanely easy fashion last out. I'm not "shore" if she's fast enough to run with these, but I have no doubt she could've run faster if she had been urged in her last race. I'll be pulling for her. The 5, Thepartyneverends, regressed after getting caught in a duel in her last outing. She's shown a lot of potential in the past, however, so don't count her out.
2- Sky Gold (4/1)
5- Thepartyneverends (7/2)
1- Bustin Out (8/1)
Race 11: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
You might as well throw a dart at this field. My dart landed on the 6, Tax Deduction, who led almost the whole way around at Churchill in his grass debut last out. He should find a shorter distance more to his liking.
6- Tax Deduction (7/2)
4- Class and Cash (2/1)
7- Charlesbrecknridge (5/1)
The first race Sunday is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!
Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy
It's gettin' hot in here...
Race 1: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I'm not exactly saying anything Earth-shattering here, but the 3, Musket Mary, is unbeatable in the opener. Her last three brisnet figures are 93, 83, and 83. That means that her worst over her last three is five points better than anyone else's last three. This filly may give American Pharoah a run for his money as the shortest-priced favorite of the season.
3- Musket Mary (4/5)
1- I Just Wanna Win (3/1)
5- House Red (9/2)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
You know, I looked at the entries for today's card, and I saw there was a $10,000 maiden claiming for older horses here. Then, I saw that the next race is the exact same thing, only at six furlongs. My mind remains boggled by that, and it may be a while yet before it gets unboggled.
Anyway, this is a wide-open race here, and is one of the few maiden claiming races all season that is fun to handicap. I wound up settling on the 2, Zeal Genius. At this level last out, he led almost the entire way around, only to get caught down the stretch. He still improved sharply in that race, moving up six points. He's the only one in the field to consistently run figures in the upper-60s, without being a chronic maiden. I'll take a shot.
The 5, Malekith, ran solidly in his first start off the layoff, and only lost to Zeal Genius by 1/2 length. He may improve with a race in him. The 8, Hunter Grey, ran figures in the 70s over the winter at Aqueduct, but sports an unsightly 0-18 lifetime record.
2- Zeal Genius (5/2)
5- Malekith (3/1)
8- Hunter Grey (8/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Another race, another standout. The 7, Yourthekingjimmy, looks as much of a "shore" thing as possible. His last three figures are 75, 71, and 64, which blow everyone else in the field away. He looked clear down the stretch in his last race, before being run down by Naughty Delite. However, Yourthekingjimmy was not the standout in that race like he is in this one. Here, he looks to be miles the best. I don't see him losing.
7- Yourthekingjimmy (4/5)
6- Full Pads (9/2)
3- Super Garces (8/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
A big field of twelve greets us in here. My pick is the 6, Double Desert. She was decent last out in her first race off the layoff, finishing third at this level. Her figures are all in the 70s, making her one of the best and most consistent members of the field. Her late speed is also an asset, as she figures to sit off the pace, and roll by with some of the best late speed figures in the race.
The 9, Shes Tuff as Nails, was second in that race that Double Desert also exits. This one's got a great chance as well. The 7, Sandbag, finally finds a race where she may be able to hang on near the end. Watch for her at a price.
6- Double Desert (3/1)
9- Shes Tuff as Nails (7/2)
7- Sandbag (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
The early pick 5 ends on a very tricky note. Pretty much anyone in this race can win it. Because of that, it helps to find a horse with something that makes them stand out a bit. The 6, I Ain't Waitin, has a few positive attributes. He's making his third start off the layoff, and ran well at Parx before that. He gets a major jockey upgrade, too, as he'll be ridden by Paco Lopez. That gives him the edge that he'll need to win this one.
The 5, Pasta Giovanni, ships up from Florida, where he ran some decent races against similar competition. The 1, How You, drops down into maiden claiming competition, which might just be the level that he needs.
6- I Ain't Waitin (3/1)
5- Pasta Giovanni (5/1)
1- How You (7/2)
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
It's a fun field of six hard-knocking horses. My pick is the 5, Saturday Special. I know I won't get much value on him, but I do know that he absolutely demolished a similar field last out, earning a field-best figure of 94. He's got the best early speed and the best late speed in the race by far, so it should be a cruise around the track for him.
The 2, Keep the Canoli, defeated a field at the $5,000 in his last race, earning a 93. He's got a strong chance at second or third, and is a must-use in those spots. The 1, Gypsy Baron, ran third behind Joe Tess, who freaked in that race, last out. He looks to rebound off that effort.
5- Saturday Special (8/5)
2- Keep the Canoli (7/2)
1- Gypsy Baron (4/1)
Race 7: Starter Handicap, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
Another terrific field has lined up here. I'll take the classiest and fastest horse in the field: the 9, Cement Clement. He was right in the thick of things the whole way around the Elkwood Stakes last out, losing by only half a length. He earned a figure of 96 in that race, which matched his race before that. In addition, jockey Kaylia Albright comes up from Delaware just to ride him--a good sign. This horse looks like a "shore" bet.
The 1, More Zen Tea, just missed in a n/w1x allowance last out, and is an appealing prospect at 10/1. The 8, Cut to Order, hopes to wire this field, and has the speed to possibly do that again.
9- Cement Clement (5/2)
1- More Zen Tea (10/1)
8- Cut to Order (9/2)
Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
A lot of horses in this field have plenty of experience in here. Somewhat ironically, I'll go with the 7, Tidal Surge, who has made only one career start. However, it was an impressive one, winning a maiden race easily at Delaware Park. Her figure in that race was a 95, which is easily the best in the field. Her late speed is also much stronger than the rest of the horses's, so she could not only win this one, but win it big. After that, who knows what she could do from here?
The 5, Miss Wilby, was third and fourth at this level this year at Monmouth. In the earlier race, she lost to eventual Delaware Oaks winner Calamity Kate. The 3, Love Came to Town, has been electrifying in sprints so far, and hopes to extend her brilliance to routes.
7- Tidal Surge (2/1)
5- Miss Wilby (6/1)
3- Love Came to Town (6/1)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
Much to the surprise of most people, Cali Thirty Seven ran well in her grass debut, finishing third at 41/1. Now, she makes her second grass start, in a race where she appears to be one of the best in here. Her last figure was 83. which is the best last-out figure in the field. In a very-wide open field like this one, she has the edge. Hopefully, she'll be a good price--a 9/2 morning line is promising.
The 9, Babe's Ruler, defeated a field of n/w2 claimers with an overland trip in her last race. The 10, Forest Funds, narrowly missed in her last effort, and trainer Ramon Preciado hits at 26% first off the claim.
5- Cali Thirty Seven (9/2)
9- Babe's Ruler (6/1)
10- Forest Funds (7/2)
Race 10: Miss Woodford Stakes, 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
A crack field of eleven filly sprinters has assembled for the Miss Woodford Stakes. Miss Woodford, for those who may not know, won the 1883 Monmouth Oaks, and was considered the premier female horse of her time. She was inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame in 1967.
Anyway, it's a very tough race in here. I'll go with the Florida shipper, the 2, Sky Gold. In her last race, at Gulfstream, she easily defeated a n/w1x allowance field by three lengths, earning a figure of 91. While that places her in the mix with a few others, what makes that race notable is that it was her first start off a five-month layoff. When breaking her maiden in January, she earned a figure of 97, which places her at the top of this bunch. She's got a good inside post, a jockey who knows the track, and a rating style coupled with solid late speed. I've tabbed her to bring home the money here.
My rooting interests lie with the 1, Bustin Out, who defeated a field of Jersey-breds in insanely easy fashion last out. I'm not "shore" if she's fast enough to run with these, but I have no doubt she could've run faster if she had been urged in her last race. I'll be pulling for her. The 5, Thepartyneverends, regressed after getting caught in a duel in her last outing. She's shown a lot of potential in the past, however, so don't count her out.
2- Sky Gold (4/1)
5- Thepartyneverends (7/2)
1- Bustin Out (8/1)
Race 11: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
You might as well throw a dart at this field. My dart landed on the 6, Tax Deduction, who led almost the whole way around at Churchill in his grass debut last out. He should find a shorter distance more to his liking.
6- Tax Deduction (7/2)
4- Class and Cash (2/1)
7- Charlesbrecknridge (5/1)
The first race Sunday is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!
Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/17/15
Here's what happened on Friday's card at Monmouth:
Race 1 (North Ocean, Jane Cibelli-Nik Juarez, 1:45.0)
North Ocean was challenged on the lead three separate times: once by Salisbury Knight, then by D'Marin, then again by Dancing Lion. North Ocean actually lost the lead to the latter rival turning for home, but re-rallied and got back up to win it. Tough horse, he is.
Race 2 (Colonel Jordan, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:46.3)
Colonel Jordan held a slim early lead, while being pressured on all sides. None of those other rivals managed to hang on, however, and that enabled Colonel Jordan to draw off to an easy score. So in this case, it wasn't really about Colonel Jordan being tough and hanging in there, so much as it was about everyone else fading. Keep that in mind.
Race 3 (Full Salute, Eddie Plesa-Gabriel Saez, 1:04.1)
It was a wide-open maiden race here, and any angle you could get helped. Here, the angle that "experience is important" paid off here, with Full Salute drawing off to victory in his second career outing. He was involved in a three-way duel with JB's Big Red and Silverado Star early on, but just kept on going. Those two horses, by the way, finished sixth and seventh.
Race 4 (Luckystrikedelcoco, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:44.3)
I assume that Christian Santiago-Reyes thought the finish line was on the far turn or something. His mount, Collect on Seven, made a huge move around the far turn that could have been a winning one if timed better. Alas, that 60/1 shot moved way too early, and flattened out down the stretch.
Meanwhile, Luckystrikedelcoco picked up those pieces late, then held off the late onslaught of Archemist and Caroline's Spirit.
Race 5 (Master of Humor, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:43.2)
The stronger half of the entry, Puget Sound, scratched. However, it didn't matter, as Puget Sound rallied two-wide late and ran down clear leader El Chivo Viejo late.
Race 6 (Kent's Baby Girl, Stacy Machiz-Gabriel Saez, 1:43.3)
It was a really long time coming, but Kent's Baby Girl finally managed to win a race. She made her move around the turn, and won by three widening lengths. My pick, Bellatara, went off at 36/1, but was a total non-factor and finished sixth. That's the way it goes sometimes...
Race 7 (Gingge, Tony Wilson-John Soto, 1:11.1)
Gingge was 16/1 to win, but the odds of her winning by nine lengths in a respectable final time, like she did, were probably in the neighborhood of 16,000/1. Yet, she won her first career race is absolutely dominating fashion, after chasing leader Hazy Daisy. We'll see if this filly has a future.
Race 8 (Palace Gate, Marcus Vitali-Nik Juarez, 1:44.0)
It was essentially a two-horse race all the way around, with Palace Gate and Big Tomatoes dueled all the way around. Palace Gate eventually shook off his inferior rival and won by a length and a half. Pirradazis made a strong rally from the back late and finished second.
Race 9 (Thirteen Arrows, Larry Jones-Kerwin Jones, 1:09.1)
Thirteen Arrows hadn't run in eleven months, but you wouldn't know it by the way she ran. She crushed the opposition, never tired from the fast pace she set herself, and won in the very impressive final time of 1:09.1. Hopefully, we'll see her in stakes competition next. If she keeps running like that, she could win a few of those, for "shore".
Race 10 (Weather Permitting, John Pimental-Daniel Centeno, 1:42.2)
It was a big effort from Weather Permitting to close the show today. She rallied from way, way, behind, as far as eleven lengths back with a quarter mile to go. Yet, she rolled down the stretch and ran past the tiring Jojo's Gal and Confrontational late to win it. I picked the entire late pick 3 on top, paying a respectable $26 for 50 cents.
Race 1 (North Ocean, Jane Cibelli-Nik Juarez, 1:45.0)
North Ocean was challenged on the lead three separate times: once by Salisbury Knight, then by D'Marin, then again by Dancing Lion. North Ocean actually lost the lead to the latter rival turning for home, but re-rallied and got back up to win it. Tough horse, he is.
Race 2 (Colonel Jordan, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:46.3)
Colonel Jordan held a slim early lead, while being pressured on all sides. None of those other rivals managed to hang on, however, and that enabled Colonel Jordan to draw off to an easy score. So in this case, it wasn't really about Colonel Jordan being tough and hanging in there, so much as it was about everyone else fading. Keep that in mind.
Race 3 (Full Salute, Eddie Plesa-Gabriel Saez, 1:04.1)
It was a wide-open maiden race here, and any angle you could get helped. Here, the angle that "experience is important" paid off here, with Full Salute drawing off to victory in his second career outing. He was involved in a three-way duel with JB's Big Red and Silverado Star early on, but just kept on going. Those two horses, by the way, finished sixth and seventh.
Race 4 (Luckystrikedelcoco, Derek Ryan-Daniel Centeno, 1:44.3)
I assume that Christian Santiago-Reyes thought the finish line was on the far turn or something. His mount, Collect on Seven, made a huge move around the far turn that could have been a winning one if timed better. Alas, that 60/1 shot moved way too early, and flattened out down the stretch.
Meanwhile, Luckystrikedelcoco picked up those pieces late, then held off the late onslaught of Archemist and Caroline's Spirit.
Race 5 (Master of Humor, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:43.2)
The stronger half of the entry, Puget Sound, scratched. However, it didn't matter, as Puget Sound rallied two-wide late and ran down clear leader El Chivo Viejo late.
Race 6 (Kent's Baby Girl, Stacy Machiz-Gabriel Saez, 1:43.3)
It was a really long time coming, but Kent's Baby Girl finally managed to win a race. She made her move around the turn, and won by three widening lengths. My pick, Bellatara, went off at 36/1, but was a total non-factor and finished sixth. That's the way it goes sometimes...
Race 7 (Gingge, Tony Wilson-John Soto, 1:11.1)
Gingge was 16/1 to win, but the odds of her winning by nine lengths in a respectable final time, like she did, were probably in the neighborhood of 16,000/1. Yet, she won her first career race is absolutely dominating fashion, after chasing leader Hazy Daisy. We'll see if this filly has a future.
Race 8 (Palace Gate, Marcus Vitali-Nik Juarez, 1:44.0)
It was essentially a two-horse race all the way around, with Palace Gate and Big Tomatoes dueled all the way around. Palace Gate eventually shook off his inferior rival and won by a length and a half. Pirradazis made a strong rally from the back late and finished second.
Race 9 (Thirteen Arrows, Larry Jones-Kerwin Jones, 1:09.1)
Thirteen Arrows hadn't run in eleven months, but you wouldn't know it by the way she ran. She crushed the opposition, never tired from the fast pace she set herself, and won in the very impressive final time of 1:09.1. Hopefully, we'll see her in stakes competition next. If she keeps running like that, she could win a few of those, for "shore".
Race 10 (Weather Permitting, John Pimental-Daniel Centeno, 1:42.2)
It was a big effort from Weather Permitting to close the show today. She rallied from way, way, behind, as far as eleven lengths back with a quarter mile to go. Yet, she rolled down the stretch and ran past the tiring Jojo's Gal and Confrontational late to win it. I picked the entire late pick 3 on top, paying a respectable $26 for 50 cents.
Friday, July 17, 2015
July 18, 2015: Picks and Analysis
Twelve races greet us at Monmouth Park on Saturday. It's not the best card of the season, for "shore", but at least there are only 15 days until the Haskell!
Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I will begin the proceedings this afternoon with the 5, More Than Special. She may have been beaten by ten lengths in her last effort, but she still earned a solid brisnet figure of 76, while outrunning a few of her rivals in here. She's also trained by the hot Marcus Vitali, and is the only one to run a figure as good as a 76 in recent times.
The 6, Stately Defence, is the other Vitali entrant, and turned in a lightning-fast three furlong workout a few days before this race. The 1, Shore Getaway, was third at this level last out.
5- More Than Special (9/5)
6- Stately Defence (3/2)
1- Shore Getaway (7/2)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The 2, Sweet on Smokey, looks like the best in here. Her last three figures are 78, 72, and 83. That makes her the only one out of the bunch to run above a 70 in her last three races. Furthermore, she's got good late speed, en"shore"ing that she'll hang on late in the game, while the rest of the field starts to tire out. She's the most likely one to round out the early double.
2- Sweet on Smokey (3/1)
3- Liberty Lady (4/1)
4- Ryabinka (6/1)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Most of the runners in here are either unproven on dirt, or stretching out to a route from a sprint. The only one in here proven in a dirt route is the 6, Kinsley. In her last dirt effort, back at Belmont in September, she ran a figure of 65. On the surface, that may look dismal, however, it's the best that anyone in the field has done on dirt. She ran a 76 in the race before that, which would win this race very easily. That race in a grass sprint at Belmont last out should have gotten her into form for this one.
The 1, Lady Anita, has shown the most grass ability out of anyone in the field, and trainer Michelle Nevin hits at 24% with horses going grass-to-dirt. The 3, Delightful, comes from Shug's barn, and has been working well to prepare for this spot.
6- Kinsley (5/2)
1- Lady Anita (2/1)
3- Delightful (4/1)
Race 4: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
I'll take a horse who looks to be improving strongly: the 7, Pool Winner. His last two races have been dominating--winning back-to-back grass sprints, while earning a figure of 90 in his last race. He looks like a horse improving in a big way, and I expect another winning effort from him today.
The 3, Slamarama, ran well at the Gulfstream winter meet, but hasn't raced since then. The 2, Drago's Best, was dull at this level last out, but ran well prior to that race.
7- Pool Winner (5/2)
3- Slamarama (4/1)
2- Drago's Best (9/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
My pick here is the 6, Strike Em Down. He's stepping down into maiden claiming competition, and was doing well in maiden races prior to his dull last effort. His figures of 83 and 81 in those races before last out would blow this field away. Even the figure of 72 earned last out is the best in the field. He may be 0-14, but it's not a great field, and he can definitely get the job done here.
If Strike Em Down goes down, the 1, Warrior's Instinct, is the most likely winner. His two dirt races are among the best in the field. The 7, Star Actor, has been running three steadily improving races.
6- Strike Em Down (8/5)
1- Warrior's Instinct (3/1)
7- Star Actor (5/2)
Race 6: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
In a race like this, it pays to have a horse with good form. Such is the situation with the 2, Mi Amore. He's won his last two races here at Monmouth, earning figures of 77 and 78 in those two races. Furthermore, his running style has him rating off the pace, then drawing away and showing much more late speed than anyone else in the field. I would imagine that is what's going to happen here, too. That'll make it three wins in a row.
The 7, Gottcha Blessin, won his last race at this level easily, earning a best-in-field figure of 83. The 8, Video Mov, drops in claiming price, and is a strong contender for the exotic spots.
2- Mi Amore (5/2)
7- Gottcha Blessin (4/1)
8- Video Mov (7/2)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Jersey Shore 6 begins with a horse who, from a figures standpoint, looks like a stand-out. The 5, Lucky Balladier, has earned a 74 and a 72 in his last two races. No other horse in the field is able to consistently pull off figures in that range. He's also got a running style that would enable him to sit off of the leaders, then roll by them when asked.
5- Lucky Balladier (5/2)
8- Finito (10/1)
11- Beau Jangles (4/1)
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Before her last race, I said that it would be difficult for the 5, Fakery, to lose. As it turns out, she won that race, but was disqualified. Since that race, the horse she lost to two starts back, Bustin Out, dominated a field of n/w1x Jersey-bred allowance horses, verifying her class. Just like last time, Fakery's figures are superior to the rest, and she also gets a jockey upgrade to Nik Juarez. Unless she gets disqualified again, she won't be losing this one.
5- Fakery (3/2)
1- Golden Earrings (9/2)
6- Huachuca (6/1)
Race 9: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
In her last race, the 1, Love That Kelly, was much the best. She was stuck in traffic the whole way around, had nowhere to go throughout, yet still made up ten lengths and missed by 3/4 of a length. She earned a figure of 80 for that effort. As long as she gets a clear trip, you have to figure that she'll improve by a few points off that tough last race, which would put her in the winner's circle.
The 4, Carey Princess, ran well this winter at Tampa, but hasn't made a start since April. The 5, Very Playful, narrowly missed at this level in her last start.
1- Love That Kelly (7/2)
4- Carey Princess (5/1)
5- Very Playful (4/1)
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I'll take the horse with the best recent route form, that being the 1, Dudeman. In his last race, at this level and distance, he was defeated by stakes winning Irish You Well. Even so, he earned a great figure of 94, with is compounded by two more figures above 90 in three of his last four. Nobody else in this field has pulled that off. He looks as if he should win as much the best.
The 4, Just Call Kenny, makes his first start at a route this year. He had shown good form routing last year, and hopes to recover that ability in this spot. Make "shore" to use him in multi-race bets, but he may be overbet in the win pools. The 7, Early Entry, is also stretching out, but had shown good late speed in all of his races. That indicates that he may enjoy the extra distance. We'll see.
1- Dudeman (3/1)
4- Just Call Kenny (9/5)
7- Early Entry (10/1)
Race 11: Lamplighter Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This race is made interesting by the presence of not one, but two Mike Repole/Todd Pletcher entries. The 1, Nonna's Boy, is coming off a third-place finish in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont. The 7, Dontbetwithbruno, finished fourth in the Pegasus in his most recent effort. It's not a super-strong grass field, so it's entirely possible that either one of these two can win. However, they're almost guaranteed to be overbet, mostly because of name recognition. Because of that, I'll pass.
Rather, I'll go with the 5, Black Martino. In his last race, the King Cugat Stakes at Saratoga, he was flying at the wire, just missing by a neck. He earned a figure of 85 in that race, and has earned up to an 89 on the grass before. That would easily win this race.
Also one to consider is the 6, Weekend Express, who has similar grass form. However, none of his races have been as impressive visually as Black Martino.
5- Black Martino (5/1)
6- Weekend Express (7/2)
3- West Village (5/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll close the show with the 6, No Brody No. He did something rare in a maiden claiming race: he made up ground in the stretch. He rallied from eighth place to run a decent third, beaten about two lengths. He earned a figure of 68 in that race, the best last-out number in the field. He's my pick to wrap things up this Saturday.
The 3, Kiss the Road, is an interesting horse: a Calumet/Zito horse entered in this cheap maiden claiming. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he was most recently fourth in a bottom-level maiden claiming there. The 8, Ignatius, was pulled up in his last dirt effort after suffering through a world of traffic. Before that, his form was decent.
6- No Brody No (3/1)
3- Kiss the Road (9/5)
8- Ignatius (10/1)
Race 1: Claiming $10,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I will begin the proceedings this afternoon with the 5, More Than Special. She may have been beaten by ten lengths in her last effort, but she still earned a solid brisnet figure of 76, while outrunning a few of her rivals in here. She's also trained by the hot Marcus Vitali, and is the only one to run a figure as good as a 76 in recent times.
The 6, Stately Defence, is the other Vitali entrant, and turned in a lightning-fast three furlong workout a few days before this race. The 1, Shore Getaway, was third at this level last out.
5- More Than Special (9/5)
6- Stately Defence (3/2)
1- Shore Getaway (7/2)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The 2, Sweet on Smokey, looks like the best in here. Her last three figures are 78, 72, and 83. That makes her the only one out of the bunch to run above a 70 in her last three races. Furthermore, she's got good late speed, en"shore"ing that she'll hang on late in the game, while the rest of the field starts to tire out. She's the most likely one to round out the early double.
2- Sweet on Smokey (3/1)
3- Liberty Lady (4/1)
4- Ryabinka (6/1)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
Most of the runners in here are either unproven on dirt, or stretching out to a route from a sprint. The only one in here proven in a dirt route is the 6, Kinsley. In her last dirt effort, back at Belmont in September, she ran a figure of 65. On the surface, that may look dismal, however, it's the best that anyone in the field has done on dirt. She ran a 76 in the race before that, which would win this race very easily. That race in a grass sprint at Belmont last out should have gotten her into form for this one.
The 1, Lady Anita, has shown the most grass ability out of anyone in the field, and trainer Michelle Nevin hits at 24% with horses going grass-to-dirt. The 3, Delightful, comes from Shug's barn, and has been working well to prepare for this spot.
6- Kinsley (5/2)
1- Lady Anita (2/1)
3- Delightful (4/1)
Race 4: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
I'll take a horse who looks to be improving strongly: the 7, Pool Winner. His last two races have been dominating--winning back-to-back grass sprints, while earning a figure of 90 in his last race. He looks like a horse improving in a big way, and I expect another winning effort from him today.
The 3, Slamarama, ran well at the Gulfstream winter meet, but hasn't raced since then. The 2, Drago's Best, was dull at this level last out, but ran well prior to that race.
7- Pool Winner (5/2)
3- Slamarama (4/1)
2- Drago's Best (9/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
My pick here is the 6, Strike Em Down. He's stepping down into maiden claiming competition, and was doing well in maiden races prior to his dull last effort. His figures of 83 and 81 in those races before last out would blow this field away. Even the figure of 72 earned last out is the best in the field. He may be 0-14, but it's not a great field, and he can definitely get the job done here.
If Strike Em Down goes down, the 1, Warrior's Instinct, is the most likely winner. His two dirt races are among the best in the field. The 7, Star Actor, has been running three steadily improving races.
6- Strike Em Down (8/5)
1- Warrior's Instinct (3/1)
7- Star Actor (5/2)
Race 6: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
In a race like this, it pays to have a horse with good form. Such is the situation with the 2, Mi Amore. He's won his last two races here at Monmouth, earning figures of 77 and 78 in those two races. Furthermore, his running style has him rating off the pace, then drawing away and showing much more late speed than anyone else in the field. I would imagine that is what's going to happen here, too. That'll make it three wins in a row.
The 7, Gottcha Blessin, won his last race at this level easily, earning a best-in-field figure of 83. The 8, Video Mov, drops in claiming price, and is a strong contender for the exotic spots.
2- Mi Amore (5/2)
7- Gottcha Blessin (4/1)
8- Video Mov (7/2)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Jersey Shore 6 begins with a horse who, from a figures standpoint, looks like a stand-out. The 5, Lucky Balladier, has earned a 74 and a 72 in his last two races. No other horse in the field is able to consistently pull off figures in that range. He's also got a running style that would enable him to sit off of the leaders, then roll by them when asked.
5- Lucky Balladier (5/2)
8- Finito (10/1)
11- Beau Jangles (4/1)
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Before her last race, I said that it would be difficult for the 5, Fakery, to lose. As it turns out, she won that race, but was disqualified. Since that race, the horse she lost to two starts back, Bustin Out, dominated a field of n/w1x Jersey-bred allowance horses, verifying her class. Just like last time, Fakery's figures are superior to the rest, and she also gets a jockey upgrade to Nik Juarez. Unless she gets disqualified again, she won't be losing this one.
5- Fakery (3/2)
1- Golden Earrings (9/2)
6- Huachuca (6/1)
Race 9: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
In her last race, the 1, Love That Kelly, was much the best. She was stuck in traffic the whole way around, had nowhere to go throughout, yet still made up ten lengths and missed by 3/4 of a length. She earned a figure of 80 for that effort. As long as she gets a clear trip, you have to figure that she'll improve by a few points off that tough last race, which would put her in the winner's circle.
The 4, Carey Princess, ran well this winter at Tampa, but hasn't made a start since April. The 5, Very Playful, narrowly missed at this level in her last start.
1- Love That Kelly (7/2)
4- Carey Princess (5/1)
5- Very Playful (4/1)
Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I'll take the horse with the best recent route form, that being the 1, Dudeman. In his last race, at this level and distance, he was defeated by stakes winning Irish You Well. Even so, he earned a great figure of 94, with is compounded by two more figures above 90 in three of his last four. Nobody else in this field has pulled that off. He looks as if he should win as much the best.
The 4, Just Call Kenny, makes his first start at a route this year. He had shown good form routing last year, and hopes to recover that ability in this spot. Make "shore" to use him in multi-race bets, but he may be overbet in the win pools. The 7, Early Entry, is also stretching out, but had shown good late speed in all of his races. That indicates that he may enjoy the extra distance. We'll see.
1- Dudeman (3/1)
4- Just Call Kenny (9/5)
7- Early Entry (10/1)
Race 11: Lamplighter Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
This race is made interesting by the presence of not one, but two Mike Repole/Todd Pletcher entries. The 1, Nonna's Boy, is coming off a third-place finish in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont. The 7, Dontbetwithbruno, finished fourth in the Pegasus in his most recent effort. It's not a super-strong grass field, so it's entirely possible that either one of these two can win. However, they're almost guaranteed to be overbet, mostly because of name recognition. Because of that, I'll pass.
Rather, I'll go with the 5, Black Martino. In his last race, the King Cugat Stakes at Saratoga, he was flying at the wire, just missing by a neck. He earned a figure of 85 in that race, and has earned up to an 89 on the grass before. That would easily win this race.
Also one to consider is the 6, Weekend Express, who has similar grass form. However, none of his races have been as impressive visually as Black Martino.
5- Black Martino (5/1)
6- Weekend Express (7/2)
3- West Village (5/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll close the show with the 6, No Brody No. He did something rare in a maiden claiming race: he made up ground in the stretch. He rallied from eighth place to run a decent third, beaten about two lengths. He earned a figure of 68 in that race, the best last-out number in the field. He's my pick to wrap things up this Saturday.
The 3, Kiss the Road, is an interesting horse: a Calumet/Zito horse entered in this cheap maiden claiming. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he was most recently fourth in a bottom-level maiden claiming there. The 8, Ignatius, was pulled up in his last dirt effort after suffering through a world of traffic. Before that, his form was decent.
6- No Brody No (3/1)
3- Kiss the Road (9/5)
8- Ignatius (10/1)
Thursday, July 16, 2015
July 17, 2015: Picks and Analysis
There's ten races on Friday at Monmouth Park. He's who I think will win them.
Weather Forecast: 82*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
It's not an easy race to begin the program. I eventually settled on the 4, Fort Boonesborough. In his last race, he rebounded off of two dull efforts to run a respectable second in an off-the-grass effort. He earned a brisnet figure of 85 in this race, the best last-out race of anyone in the field. His past routing form also looks to be the best in the field, so I'll start off the card with him.
The 5, North Ocean, checked out of his last race, but showed ability prior to that. I'll give him another chance. The 2, Dancing Lion, is first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness, who hits at a mind-blowing 36% with that angle. The only question is if he can stretch back out to a route.
4- Fort Boonesborough (5/2)
5- North Ocean (9/5)
2- Dancing Lion (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
My pick here is the 3, Colonel Jordan. He may have finished in fifth last out, but the winner of that race won by six lengths; Colonel Jordan was only two lengths behind the second-place finisher. His figures have also been consistently in the low-70s range, which should be good enough to win this race. Also, his late speed numbers are among the best in the race, so when the rest of the field tires out, he should still be going strong.
The 8, Diacetto, broke through with a maiden claiming win in his last race, and has the hot team of Claudio Gonzalez and Trevor McCarthy. The 1, Big Daddy B, has decent early speed and an inside draw.
I would like to make a note to avoid the 9, Eight Cents, who has displayed an extreme aversion to winning, and will "shore"ly be overbet.
3- Colonel Jordan (3/1)
8- Diacetto (4/1)
1- Big Daddy B (7/2)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Just about any of the seven two-year-olds entered here can win this race. I wound up picking the 2, Entertainer, to win. He's been working sharply in preparation for this race, and trainer Wayne Catalano has been hitting at a sharp 19% with first-time-starters in recent times. Catalano's also been hitting at an insane 50% with horses at Monmouth in general this season. In a wide-open race like this, finding an information nugget like that can be the key to some good cash.
The 7, Silverado Star, has the ever-dangerous Plesa-Lopez combination, and turned in a sharp workout to prepare for this race. The 4, Full Salute, is one of two in here with experience, and ran a good second last out, finishing four lengths clear of the third-place horse. He may improve strongly.
2- Entertainer (5/2)
7- Silverado Star (3/1)
4- Full Salute (3/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 5, Caroline's Spirit, looks to be the best horse in the field. In her last race, at this level, she made a furious closing rally, missing second by a length. Her figure of 71 is the second-best last-out number, only trailing Ready Now's 73. I'm a bit leery of that one, considering her drop from MSW company down to the maiden claimers, as well as the fact that this is former jockey Jorge Duarte's first horse as a trainer.
Also worth considering is the 4, Archemist, who was a solid third in her first race off the layoff last out.
5- Caroline's Spirit (3/1)
8- Ready Now (6/1)
4- Archemist (4/1)
Race 5: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
While both halves of the entry in this race are strong, I lean toward the 1, Puget Sound. He's shipping in from Delaware Park, where he blew away a field of $6,250 claimers. He earned a figure of 87 there, and has always earned figures in the mid-80s. His entry-mate, Master of Humor, has steadily improving form, and ships in from Penn National. These two, together, are going to be hard to beat.
The 6, Parody, can't be ignored, either. He blew away a field at the $5,000 level last out, earning a figure of 90 in that race. If he runs back to that race, he'll be very tough.
1- Puget Sound/1A- Master of Humor (5/2)
6- Parody (3/1)
8- More Hundred Acre (8/1)
Race 6: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 1, Jademarie, is going to be tough to beat in here. Her figures are the best in the field by a good margin, averaging around an 80 in her last three. She's also getting a major jockey upgrade, going from Gabriel Saez to Paco Lopez. I can't quite say that she's a single in multi-race bets, but if she keeps doing what she's been doing, she'll be very tough.
The 5, Bellatara, ran sharp races over the winter at Gulfstream, but makes her first start since February. The 6, Kent's Baby Girl, needs to be closer to the pace to have a better shot of winning.
1- Jademarie (2/1)
5- Bellatara (15/1)
6- Kent's Baby Girl (9/2)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
No one in this Jersey-bred maiden claimer has shown much of anything when it comes to form. Because of that, I'll lean toward a first-time starter, the 1, Banana Anna. Her works going into this race have been sharp, and trainer Daniel Lopez hits at a respectable 14% with first-time starters.. It's not much, but in a field like this, it works.
1- Banana Anna (9/2)
8- Channel Surfing (3/1)
3- Easy Landing (6/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Once again, I will look toward the inside, and pick the 1, Palace Gate. If you toss his last dirt effort, he's been in the mix in every one of his grass starts. His last figure of 79 is the best among all the grass runners in the field. Trainer Marcus Vitali has also been having a great season, especially on grass. None of this hurts him, so he'll be my selection.
The 5, Royal Caviar, has shown good late speed and has some of the best figures in the field; he may improve in this spot. The 9, Pirradazis, has been a close-but-no-cigar type all season, but is nonetheless a contender for exotic spots.
1- Palace Gate (5/2)
5- Royal Caviar (7/2)
9- Pirradazis (3/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The likely favorite in here is the 5, Thirteen Arrows, who last ran in the Prioress Stakes back in August. Ordinarily, I would dismiss a horse who hadn't run in eleven months, but trainer Larry Jones hits at an absurdly high 33% with horses off that long of a layoff. And those aren't flukes, either: that sample size comes from 69 starters. When you couple that with a horse whose form already makes her a strong contender, it becomes a solid choice. Now, if Thirteen Arrows was bet down to a ridiculously low price, I'd be inclined to steer clear. But she's a must-use in multi-race bets.
The 4, True Blue Nation, has good figures, blazing early speed, and the ability to stay on after a fast pace. She is also a strong contender.
The 3, Discreetly Elusive, ships in for Todd Pletcher, and comes off solid races at this level at Belmont.
5- Thirteen Arrows (9/5)
4- True Blue Nation (5/1)
3- Discreetly Elusive (5/2)
Race 10: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I will conclude the card with the 11, Weather Permitting. She's put in sharp closing rallies in her last few starts, earning the best late speed figures in the race. Her speed figures are also among the best, earning back-to-back 64s. I try her to get out on this Friday.
11- Weather Permitting (4/1)
2- Jojo's Gal (7/2)
7- Pica Pica (10/1)
Weather Forecast: 82*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
It's not an easy race to begin the program. I eventually settled on the 4, Fort Boonesborough. In his last race, he rebounded off of two dull efforts to run a respectable second in an off-the-grass effort. He earned a brisnet figure of 85 in this race, the best last-out race of anyone in the field. His past routing form also looks to be the best in the field, so I'll start off the card with him.
The 5, North Ocean, checked out of his last race, but showed ability prior to that. I'll give him another chance. The 2, Dancing Lion, is first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness, who hits at a mind-blowing 36% with that angle. The only question is if he can stretch back out to a route.
4- Fort Boonesborough (5/2)
5- North Ocean (9/5)
2- Dancing Lion (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
My pick here is the 3, Colonel Jordan. He may have finished in fifth last out, but the winner of that race won by six lengths; Colonel Jordan was only two lengths behind the second-place finisher. His figures have also been consistently in the low-70s range, which should be good enough to win this race. Also, his late speed numbers are among the best in the race, so when the rest of the field tires out, he should still be going strong.
The 8, Diacetto, broke through with a maiden claiming win in his last race, and has the hot team of Claudio Gonzalez and Trevor McCarthy. The 1, Big Daddy B, has decent early speed and an inside draw.
I would like to make a note to avoid the 9, Eight Cents, who has displayed an extreme aversion to winning, and will "shore"ly be overbet.
3- Colonel Jordan (3/1)
8- Diacetto (4/1)
1- Big Daddy B (7/2)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Just about any of the seven two-year-olds entered here can win this race. I wound up picking the 2, Entertainer, to win. He's been working sharply in preparation for this race, and trainer Wayne Catalano has been hitting at a sharp 19% with first-time-starters in recent times. Catalano's also been hitting at an insane 50% with horses at Monmouth in general this season. In a wide-open race like this, finding an information nugget like that can be the key to some good cash.
The 7, Silverado Star, has the ever-dangerous Plesa-Lopez combination, and turned in a sharp workout to prepare for this race. The 4, Full Salute, is one of two in here with experience, and ran a good second last out, finishing four lengths clear of the third-place horse. He may improve strongly.
2- Entertainer (5/2)
7- Silverado Star (3/1)
4- Full Salute (3/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 5, Caroline's Spirit, looks to be the best horse in the field. In her last race, at this level, she made a furious closing rally, missing second by a length. Her figure of 71 is the second-best last-out number, only trailing Ready Now's 73. I'm a bit leery of that one, considering her drop from MSW company down to the maiden claimers, as well as the fact that this is former jockey Jorge Duarte's first horse as a trainer.
Also worth considering is the 4, Archemist, who was a solid third in her first race off the layoff last out.
5- Caroline's Spirit (3/1)
8- Ready Now (6/1)
4- Archemist (4/1)
Race 5: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
While both halves of the entry in this race are strong, I lean toward the 1, Puget Sound. He's shipping in from Delaware Park, where he blew away a field of $6,250 claimers. He earned a figure of 87 there, and has always earned figures in the mid-80s. His entry-mate, Master of Humor, has steadily improving form, and ships in from Penn National. These two, together, are going to be hard to beat.
The 6, Parody, can't be ignored, either. He blew away a field at the $5,000 level last out, earning a figure of 90 in that race. If he runs back to that race, he'll be very tough.
1- Puget Sound/1A- Master of Humor (5/2)
6- Parody (3/1)
8- More Hundred Acre (8/1)
Race 6: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 1, Jademarie, is going to be tough to beat in here. Her figures are the best in the field by a good margin, averaging around an 80 in her last three. She's also getting a major jockey upgrade, going from Gabriel Saez to Paco Lopez. I can't quite say that she's a single in multi-race bets, but if she keeps doing what she's been doing, she'll be very tough.
The 5, Bellatara, ran sharp races over the winter at Gulfstream, but makes her first start since February. The 6, Kent's Baby Girl, needs to be closer to the pace to have a better shot of winning.
1- Jademarie (2/1)
5- Bellatara (15/1)
6- Kent's Baby Girl (9/2)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
No one in this Jersey-bred maiden claimer has shown much of anything when it comes to form. Because of that, I'll lean toward a first-time starter, the 1, Banana Anna. Her works going into this race have been sharp, and trainer Daniel Lopez hits at a respectable 14% with first-time starters.. It's not much, but in a field like this, it works.
1- Banana Anna (9/2)
8- Channel Surfing (3/1)
3- Easy Landing (6/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Once again, I will look toward the inside, and pick the 1, Palace Gate. If you toss his last dirt effort, he's been in the mix in every one of his grass starts. His last figure of 79 is the best among all the grass runners in the field. Trainer Marcus Vitali has also been having a great season, especially on grass. None of this hurts him, so he'll be my selection.
The 5, Royal Caviar, has shown good late speed and has some of the best figures in the field; he may improve in this spot. The 9, Pirradazis, has been a close-but-no-cigar type all season, but is nonetheless a contender for exotic spots.
1- Palace Gate (5/2)
5- Royal Caviar (7/2)
9- Pirradazis (3/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The likely favorite in here is the 5, Thirteen Arrows, who last ran in the Prioress Stakes back in August. Ordinarily, I would dismiss a horse who hadn't run in eleven months, but trainer Larry Jones hits at an absurdly high 33% with horses off that long of a layoff. And those aren't flukes, either: that sample size comes from 69 starters. When you couple that with a horse whose form already makes her a strong contender, it becomes a solid choice. Now, if Thirteen Arrows was bet down to a ridiculously low price, I'd be inclined to steer clear. But she's a must-use in multi-race bets.
The 4, True Blue Nation, has good figures, blazing early speed, and the ability to stay on after a fast pace. She is also a strong contender.
The 3, Discreetly Elusive, ships in for Todd Pletcher, and comes off solid races at this level at Belmont.
5- Thirteen Arrows (9/5)
4- True Blue Nation (5/1)
3- Discreetly Elusive (5/2)
Race 10: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I will conclude the card with the 11, Weather Permitting. She's put in sharp closing rallies in her last few starts, earning the best late speed figures in the race. Her speed figures are also among the best, earning back-to-back 64s. I try her to get out on this Friday.
11- Weather Permitting (4/1)
2- Jojo's Gal (7/2)
7- Pica Pica (10/1)
Monday, July 13, 2015
Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/12/15
A star was unveiled in the featured Klassy Briefcase Stakes. There were 11 other races, too.
Race 1 (Dr. Blarney, Tom McCooey-Tommy Turner, :58.4)
Dr. Blarney sat THE trip--rating off two duelers while well clear of the rest of the field--and rolled away to break his maiden at first asking. He was well bet, too: his morning line was 12/1, but he paid $11.60. And, considering that the comparable fillies did five furlongs in 1:01.2 yesterday, the final time here is semi-respectable.
Race 2 (Exclusive Symphony, Patricia Farro-Wilmer Garcia, 1:12.0)
Note to other jockeys: when your horse isn't being challenged on the lead, there's no need to set a :21.3 opening quarter on your horse. Nik Juarez's mount, Twisted Kick, burst out to a five-length lead all by herself, and unsurprisingly tired out. Exclusive Symphony blew by her at the eighth pole and won it easily. Twisted Kick held on to finish second.
Race 3 (Mr. Viber, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:10.0)
It was an epic stretch battle here, as Mr. Viber, Tell Tale Friend, and Pomeroy's Package dueled throughout the final quarter mile. In the end, Mr. Viber got up and won it by a nose over Tell Tale Friend. Tough beat for someone like me, who liked both Tell Tale Friend and Pomeroy's Package.
Race 4 (A Nice Rendition, Jane Cibelli-Nik Juarez, 1:05.2)
A Nice Rendition engaged in a mini-duel for second place down the backstretch. When leader Two More Jacs tired, A Nice Rendition made his move, but had to battle with Joni's Wildcat down the stretch. A Nice Rendition managed to hold on by a neck. Game effort on his part.
Race 5 (Frogman Mel, Marcos Zulueta-Joe Bravo, 1:42.0)
Frogman Mel took his time here, biding off the four horses who went to the front. Once they stopped, he rallied wide, and won it going away. Nothing to it.
Race 6 (Bobby V, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.2)
It was another example of sitting the trip. Bobby V rated just off the front-runners, moved three-wide on the turn, and won like a 3/5 shot should--easily.
Race 7 (Subpoena, Claudio Gonzalez-Joe Bravo, 1:35.4)
At this stage, you have to wonder how long Claudio Gonzalez will be sneaky good. His win percentage in the program remains low, but he's been getting really hot lately, and this race was no exception. Get 'em while you can, I guess.
Joe Bravo wins his second on the grass today with this one, who moved four-wide and rolled past them.
Race 8 (Alpha Dude, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:12.1)
Alpha Dude looked well beaten at the eighth pole. However, he suddenly decided to run as if a rocket was up his butt, and exploded up the rail to win by a nose. If he had moved one second later, he would've lost. Beautiful timing from Trevor McCarthy, and great races from both Little Tom and Hereosaurus Rex. They dueled with each other the whole way around, but didn't get tired until late.
Race 9 (Vipera, Jane Cibelli-Trevor McCarthy, 1:35.4)
Make it three on the day for Trevor McCarthy. He rode the rails with Vipera, got her clear late, and held off rail-skimming Precious Paula for the victory. That's also a training double for Jane Cibelli.
Race 10 (Chubble Maker, Daniel Lopez-Angel Serpa, 1:11.2)
That ten-month layoff didn't deter Chubble Maker, who rallied five-wide around the turn and won it by a grinding 3/4 of a length. With a race under his belt, he may run an even bigger race next out. Watch for him.
Race 11 (Lady Shipman, Kathleen O'Connell-Eduardo Nunez, 1:01.2)
This was an incredible effort from Lady Shipman. She jumped out to the front, and managed to hold everyone off to win by six lengths. That's her second stakes win of the Monmouth season, and her third stakes win on the year overall. Hopefully, bigger and better things are next for her.
Race 12 (Action Tonight, Tony Wilson-Navin Mangalee, 1:13.4)
My pick, Frolicking Gal, led going into the stretch, but wound up losing by 27 lengths. Figures. Action Tonight, meanwhile, made up nine lengths in the stretch and got up over Silver Bouquet in the last stride.
Race 1 (Dr. Blarney, Tom McCooey-Tommy Turner, :58.4)
Dr. Blarney sat THE trip--rating off two duelers while well clear of the rest of the field--and rolled away to break his maiden at first asking. He was well bet, too: his morning line was 12/1, but he paid $11.60. And, considering that the comparable fillies did five furlongs in 1:01.2 yesterday, the final time here is semi-respectable.
Race 2 (Exclusive Symphony, Patricia Farro-Wilmer Garcia, 1:12.0)
Note to other jockeys: when your horse isn't being challenged on the lead, there's no need to set a :21.3 opening quarter on your horse. Nik Juarez's mount, Twisted Kick, burst out to a five-length lead all by herself, and unsurprisingly tired out. Exclusive Symphony blew by her at the eighth pole and won it easily. Twisted Kick held on to finish second.
Race 3 (Mr. Viber, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:10.0)
It was an epic stretch battle here, as Mr. Viber, Tell Tale Friend, and Pomeroy's Package dueled throughout the final quarter mile. In the end, Mr. Viber got up and won it by a nose over Tell Tale Friend. Tough beat for someone like me, who liked both Tell Tale Friend and Pomeroy's Package.
Race 4 (A Nice Rendition, Jane Cibelli-Nik Juarez, 1:05.2)
A Nice Rendition engaged in a mini-duel for second place down the backstretch. When leader Two More Jacs tired, A Nice Rendition made his move, but had to battle with Joni's Wildcat down the stretch. A Nice Rendition managed to hold on by a neck. Game effort on his part.
Race 5 (Frogman Mel, Marcos Zulueta-Joe Bravo, 1:42.0)
Frogman Mel took his time here, biding off the four horses who went to the front. Once they stopped, he rallied wide, and won it going away. Nothing to it.
Race 6 (Bobby V, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.2)
It was another example of sitting the trip. Bobby V rated just off the front-runners, moved three-wide on the turn, and won like a 3/5 shot should--easily.
Race 7 (Subpoena, Claudio Gonzalez-Joe Bravo, 1:35.4)
At this stage, you have to wonder how long Claudio Gonzalez will be sneaky good. His win percentage in the program remains low, but he's been getting really hot lately, and this race was no exception. Get 'em while you can, I guess.
Joe Bravo wins his second on the grass today with this one, who moved four-wide and rolled past them.
Race 8 (Alpha Dude, Jamie Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:12.1)
Alpha Dude looked well beaten at the eighth pole. However, he suddenly decided to run as if a rocket was up his butt, and exploded up the rail to win by a nose. If he had moved one second later, he would've lost. Beautiful timing from Trevor McCarthy, and great races from both Little Tom and Hereosaurus Rex. They dueled with each other the whole way around, but didn't get tired until late.
Race 9 (Vipera, Jane Cibelli-Trevor McCarthy, 1:35.4)
Make it three on the day for Trevor McCarthy. He rode the rails with Vipera, got her clear late, and held off rail-skimming Precious Paula for the victory. That's also a training double for Jane Cibelli.
Race 10 (Chubble Maker, Daniel Lopez-Angel Serpa, 1:11.2)
That ten-month layoff didn't deter Chubble Maker, who rallied five-wide around the turn and won it by a grinding 3/4 of a length. With a race under his belt, he may run an even bigger race next out. Watch for him.
Race 11 (Lady Shipman, Kathleen O'Connell-Eduardo Nunez, 1:01.2)
This was an incredible effort from Lady Shipman. She jumped out to the front, and managed to hold everyone off to win by six lengths. That's her second stakes win of the Monmouth season, and her third stakes win on the year overall. Hopefully, bigger and better things are next for her.
Race 12 (Action Tonight, Tony Wilson-Navin Mangalee, 1:13.4)
My pick, Frolicking Gal, led going into the stretch, but wound up losing by 27 lengths. Figures. Action Tonight, meanwhile, made up nine lengths in the stretch and got up over Silver Bouquet in the last stride.
Sunday, July 12, 2015
Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/11/15
Some tickets were punched to the Haskell on Saturday, in the Long Branch Stakes. Who made it? Well, hopefully you already know, but just in case, I'll tell you here, plus give you recaps of the other 11 races.
Race 1 (Earned, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:06.0)
Based on the final time, it looks like Pletcher made the right move sending this one to Monmouth, as opposed to going to Saratoga. She sat a great trip off the duelers and rolled to an easy win, in a less-than-impressive time. Now, she can win the Sorority Stakes, be hyped up for a little bit, and then lose in graded stakes company.
Race 2 (Trapise in Utopia, Mark Hennig-Paco Lopez, 1:45.3)
To my disappointment, Momma's Favorite couldn't get a clear lead. She wound up battling with 44/1 Daddy's Big Girl for the lead, and finally wrested the lead away. Unfortunately for me, she tired out by then, and Trapise in Utopia rolled by for the win. It was a good effort from this one, who was pace-compromised in her last effort. No such trouble here.
Race 3 (Boss's Rules, Patrick Marrotta-Nik Juarez, 1:39.2)
This one was over very early on. Boss's Rules got clear early and that was all she wrote. I dismissed her based off her last effort at Parx, which proved to be a tragic mistake.
Race 4 (Starship Wildcat, Allen Iwinski-Andre Worrie, 1:03.2)
Starship Wildcat made a big three-wide sweep around the turn, and got involved in a three-way photo with my two picks, Didn't Take It and Dedicated to Bob. Of course, Starship Wildcat held off the charge of the latter two to get the job done.
Race 5 (Candystand, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:01.0)
Candystand was making the drop from maiden special weight down to maiden claiming, and it paid off with a victory. Although the final time is nothing to write home about, she did show some heart dueling down the stretch with Prospecting Road.
Kelly Breen trained the winner here. He wasn't at Monmouth, but rather at Delaware. He wound up saddling Delaware Oaks winner Calamity Kate, who shocked them at 50/1.
Race 6 (Heart of Midway, Tom Proctor-Jose Ferrer, 1:41.3)
It was a good ride from Jose Ferrer on the favorite. He moved Heart of Midway up to challenge the longshot leader, took over when that one faded, and drew off to win easily. You can only afford to do stuff like that when you have one of the best horses in the field, however. Such was the case here.
Race 7 (Delta Bluesman, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:09.1)
Delta Bluesman proved to be the best in here. He jumped out to the early lead and set a blazing pace for himself, yet never stopped and won by three easy lengths. The final time of 1:09.1 certainly jumps out; would his connections consider the Teddy Drone Stakes next?
Race 8 (Majestic Jess, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:35.2)
It's another race with a Navarro-Bocachica horse going gate-to-wire. Majestic Jess jumped out early and held off the challenges of Thunder Calls and Lawyer Jim to prevail. I had all three in the pick 3, and was hoping Thunder Calls would get up so it would pay more. Still cashed, though.
Race 9 (Top Clearance, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:44.2)
Ponzi Scheme got to a very clear lead, but stopped around the turn. On the other hand, Top Clearance got a great trip, and blew by him to win it easily. Good ol' Village Warrior, of course, couldn't capitalize on that trip and finished a very flat third. Where does a horse like that go from here?
Race 10 (Azure Dragon, Michael Dini-Abel Castellano, 1:35.4)
The toughest beat of the meet. I gave out Nineinthenine, strongly endorsing him at 16/1, and bet enthusiastically. He made a big four-wide move around the turn and looked like he'd roll past, but couldn't get away from ground-saving Azure Dragon and lost by a neck. Who said that there was justice in the world?
Race 11 (Stanford, Todd Pletcher-Joe Bravo, 1:44.1)
Stanford may have won the Long Branch, but he couldn't have been less inspiring in winning it. As a matter of fact, he almost blew it going into the stretch, as early leader Souper Colossal re-rallied and almost beat him. Stanford held on, however, securing his spot in the Haskell starting gate. He has next to no chance of beating American Pharaoh, however.
Race 12 (Sassy Spinster, Kathleen Demasi-Jose Ferrer, 1:12.3)
The long layoff didn't derail Sassy Spinster, who fought with Cocoki down the stretch before pulling away in the end. That's a riding double for Jose Ferrer.
Race 1 (Earned, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:06.0)
Based on the final time, it looks like Pletcher made the right move sending this one to Monmouth, as opposed to going to Saratoga. She sat a great trip off the duelers and rolled to an easy win, in a less-than-impressive time. Now, she can win the Sorority Stakes, be hyped up for a little bit, and then lose in graded stakes company.
Race 2 (Trapise in Utopia, Mark Hennig-Paco Lopez, 1:45.3)
To my disappointment, Momma's Favorite couldn't get a clear lead. She wound up battling with 44/1 Daddy's Big Girl for the lead, and finally wrested the lead away. Unfortunately for me, she tired out by then, and Trapise in Utopia rolled by for the win. It was a good effort from this one, who was pace-compromised in her last effort. No such trouble here.
Race 3 (Boss's Rules, Patrick Marrotta-Nik Juarez, 1:39.2)
This one was over very early on. Boss's Rules got clear early and that was all she wrote. I dismissed her based off her last effort at Parx, which proved to be a tragic mistake.
Race 4 (Starship Wildcat, Allen Iwinski-Andre Worrie, 1:03.2)
Starship Wildcat made a big three-wide sweep around the turn, and got involved in a three-way photo with my two picks, Didn't Take It and Dedicated to Bob. Of course, Starship Wildcat held off the charge of the latter two to get the job done.
Race 5 (Candystand, Kelly Breen-Paco Lopez, 1:01.0)
Candystand was making the drop from maiden special weight down to maiden claiming, and it paid off with a victory. Although the final time is nothing to write home about, she did show some heart dueling down the stretch with Prospecting Road.
Kelly Breen trained the winner here. He wasn't at Monmouth, but rather at Delaware. He wound up saddling Delaware Oaks winner Calamity Kate, who shocked them at 50/1.
Race 6 (Heart of Midway, Tom Proctor-Jose Ferrer, 1:41.3)
It was a good ride from Jose Ferrer on the favorite. He moved Heart of Midway up to challenge the longshot leader, took over when that one faded, and drew off to win easily. You can only afford to do stuff like that when you have one of the best horses in the field, however. Such was the case here.
Race 7 (Delta Bluesman, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:09.1)
Delta Bluesman proved to be the best in here. He jumped out to the early lead and set a blazing pace for himself, yet never stopped and won by three easy lengths. The final time of 1:09.1 certainly jumps out; would his connections consider the Teddy Drone Stakes next?
Race 8 (Majestic Jess, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:35.2)
It's another race with a Navarro-Bocachica horse going gate-to-wire. Majestic Jess jumped out early and held off the challenges of Thunder Calls and Lawyer Jim to prevail. I had all three in the pick 3, and was hoping Thunder Calls would get up so it would pay more. Still cashed, though.
Race 9 (Top Clearance, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:44.2)
Ponzi Scheme got to a very clear lead, but stopped around the turn. On the other hand, Top Clearance got a great trip, and blew by him to win it easily. Good ol' Village Warrior, of course, couldn't capitalize on that trip and finished a very flat third. Where does a horse like that go from here?
Race 10 (Azure Dragon, Michael Dini-Abel Castellano, 1:35.4)
The toughest beat of the meet. I gave out Nineinthenine, strongly endorsing him at 16/1, and bet enthusiastically. He made a big four-wide move around the turn and looked like he'd roll past, but couldn't get away from ground-saving Azure Dragon and lost by a neck. Who said that there was justice in the world?
Race 11 (Stanford, Todd Pletcher-Joe Bravo, 1:44.1)
Stanford may have won the Long Branch, but he couldn't have been less inspiring in winning it. As a matter of fact, he almost blew it going into the stretch, as early leader Souper Colossal re-rallied and almost beat him. Stanford held on, however, securing his spot in the Haskell starting gate. He has next to no chance of beating American Pharaoh, however.
Race 12 (Sassy Spinster, Kathleen Demasi-Jose Ferrer, 1:12.3)
The long layoff didn't derail Sassy Spinster, who fought with Cocoki down the stretch before pulling away in the end. That's a riding double for Jose Ferrer.
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