There's ten races on Friday at Monmouth Park. He's who I think will win them.
Weather Forecast: 82*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
It's not an easy race to begin the program. I eventually settled on the 4, Fort Boonesborough. In his last race, he rebounded off of two dull efforts to run a respectable second in an off-the-grass effort. He earned a brisnet figure of 85 in this race, the best last-out race of anyone in the field. His past routing form also looks to be the best in the field, so I'll start off the card with him.
The 5, North Ocean, checked out of his last race, but showed ability prior to that. I'll give him another chance. The 2, Dancing Lion, is first off the claim for trainer Jamie Ness, who hits at a mind-blowing 36% with that angle. The only question is if he can stretch back out to a route.
4- Fort Boonesborough (5/2)
5- North Ocean (9/5)
2- Dancing Lion (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
My pick here is the 3, Colonel Jordan. He may have finished in fifth last out, but the winner of that race won by six lengths; Colonel Jordan was only two lengths behind the second-place finisher. His figures have also been consistently in the low-70s range, which should be good enough to win this race. Also, his late speed numbers are among the best in the race, so when the rest of the field tires out, he should still be going strong.
The 8, Diacetto, broke through with a maiden claiming win in his last race, and has the hot team of Claudio Gonzalez and Trevor McCarthy. The 1, Big Daddy B, has decent early speed and an inside draw.
I would like to make a note to avoid the 9, Eight Cents, who has displayed an extreme aversion to winning, and will "shore"ly be overbet.
3- Colonel Jordan (3/1)
8- Diacetto (4/1)
1- Big Daddy B (7/2)
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Just about any of the seven two-year-olds entered here can win this race. I wound up picking the 2, Entertainer, to win. He's been working sharply in preparation for this race, and trainer Wayne Catalano has been hitting at a sharp 19% with first-time-starters in recent times. Catalano's also been hitting at an insane 50% with horses at Monmouth in general this season. In a wide-open race like this, finding an information nugget like that can be the key to some good cash.
The 7, Silverado Star, has the ever-dangerous Plesa-Lopez combination, and turned in a sharp workout to prepare for this race. The 4, Full Salute, is one of two in here with experience, and ran a good second last out, finishing four lengths clear of the third-place horse. He may improve strongly.
2- Entertainer (5/2)
7- Silverado Star (3/1)
4- Full Salute (3/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 5, Caroline's Spirit, looks to be the best horse in the field. In her last race, at this level, she made a furious closing rally, missing second by a length. Her figure of 71 is the second-best last-out number, only trailing Ready Now's 73. I'm a bit leery of that one, considering her drop from MSW company down to the maiden claimers, as well as the fact that this is former jockey Jorge Duarte's first horse as a trainer.
Also worth considering is the 4, Archemist, who was a solid third in her first race off the layoff last out.
5- Caroline's Spirit (3/1)
8- Ready Now (6/1)
4- Archemist (4/1)
Race 5: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
While both halves of the entry in this race are strong, I lean toward the 1, Puget Sound. He's shipping in from Delaware Park, where he blew away a field of $6,250 claimers. He earned a figure of 87 there, and has always earned figures in the mid-80s. His entry-mate, Master of Humor, has steadily improving form, and ships in from Penn National. These two, together, are going to be hard to beat.
The 6, Parody, can't be ignored, either. He blew away a field at the $5,000 level last out, earning a figure of 90 in that race. If he runs back to that race, he'll be very tough.
1- Puget Sound/1A- Master of Humor (5/2)
6- Parody (3/1)
8- More Hundred Acre (8/1)
Race 6: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 1, Jademarie, is going to be tough to beat in here. Her figures are the best in the field by a good margin, averaging around an 80 in her last three. She's also getting a major jockey upgrade, going from Gabriel Saez to Paco Lopez. I can't quite say that she's a single in multi-race bets, but if she keeps doing what she's been doing, she'll be very tough.
The 5, Bellatara, ran sharp races over the winter at Gulfstream, but makes her first start since February. The 6, Kent's Baby Girl, needs to be closer to the pace to have a better shot of winning.
1- Jademarie (2/1)
5- Bellatara (15/1)
6- Kent's Baby Girl (9/2)
Race 7: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
No one in this Jersey-bred maiden claimer has shown much of anything when it comes to form. Because of that, I'll lean toward a first-time starter, the 1, Banana Anna. Her works going into this race have been sharp, and trainer Daniel Lopez hits at a respectable 14% with first-time starters.. It's not much, but in a field like this, it works.
1- Banana Anna (9/2)
8- Channel Surfing (3/1)
3- Easy Landing (6/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Once again, I will look toward the inside, and pick the 1, Palace Gate. If you toss his last dirt effort, he's been in the mix in every one of his grass starts. His last figure of 79 is the best among all the grass runners in the field. Trainer Marcus Vitali has also been having a great season, especially on grass. None of this hurts him, so he'll be my selection.
The 5, Royal Caviar, has shown good late speed and has some of the best figures in the field; he may improve in this spot. The 9, Pirradazis, has been a close-but-no-cigar type all season, but is nonetheless a contender for exotic spots.
1- Palace Gate (5/2)
5- Royal Caviar (7/2)
9- Pirradazis (3/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The likely favorite in here is the 5, Thirteen Arrows, who last ran in the Prioress Stakes back in August. Ordinarily, I would dismiss a horse who hadn't run in eleven months, but trainer Larry Jones hits at an absurdly high 33% with horses off that long of a layoff. And those aren't flukes, either: that sample size comes from 69 starters. When you couple that with a horse whose form already makes her a strong contender, it becomes a solid choice. Now, if Thirteen Arrows was bet down to a ridiculously low price, I'd be inclined to steer clear. But she's a must-use in multi-race bets.
The 4, True Blue Nation, has good figures, blazing early speed, and the ability to stay on after a fast pace. She is also a strong contender.
The 3, Discreetly Elusive, ships in for Todd Pletcher, and comes off solid races at this level at Belmont.
5- Thirteen Arrows (9/5)
4- True Blue Nation (5/1)
3- Discreetly Elusive (5/2)
Race 10: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I will conclude the card with the 11, Weather Permitting. She's put in sharp closing rallies in her last few starts, earning the best late speed figures in the race. Her speed figures are also among the best, earning back-to-back 64s. I try her to get out on this Friday.
11- Weather Permitting (4/1)
2- Jojo's Gal (7/2)
7- Pica Pica (10/1)
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