Saturday, July 25, 2015

July 26, 2015: Picks and Analysis

Today at Monmouth, there are not one, but TWO runnings of the Little Silver Stakes. These are exciting times, people!

Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy

Race 1: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
The two favorites in this race are taking plunges in claiming price. The 1, Clock Stopper, was running for $25,000 at this level at Belmont a few weeks ago, but now drops in for $7,500. The 5, Herecomesmisskitty, was a stakes competitor last year, and was in for $16,000 last out at Gulfstream. While none of them are especially strong, I give a slight edge to Clock Stopper. She's got a lot of early speed from the rail, so she could sneak to a clear early lead and not get caught late. Trainer Jason Servis also hits at a sharp 26% with shippers, and has been having a great season overall.
1- Clock Stopper (2/1)
5- Herecomesmisskitty (8/5)
6- Confrontational (6/1)

Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I hate taking a short price on any horse, much less a horse in a race like this, However, the 7, Daddy's Crazy Girl, looks very tough. Her brisnet figures are all in the high 50s, and all of them were earned in route races. This is stark contrast to some of the others, who have run figures like those in sprints. Essentially, Daddy's Crazy Girl is the only one who has proven herself (relatively speaking) over a route of ground. That being said, I wouldn't take her 7/5 morning line, and she'll likely be way lower than that. Key her in the pick 5 if you want, but don't play her to win.
7- Daddy's Crazy Girl (7/5)
5- Sonyador (9/2)
2- Roman Sister (10/1)

Race 3: Claiming $30,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 7, Ginger Goose, in here. He's been coming close in his last two races at this level, running second and fourth, while earning figures of 83 and 84. Trainer Eddie Broome hits at a solid 21% with horses beaten as the favorite in their last start, and his late pace figures are better (albeit only slightly more so) than his rivals. It's a wide-open race, but I'll give Ginger Goose the slight edge.
The 4, Call Wil, was scratched out of a similar spot Saturday, and possesses a lot of early speed. The 5, E Biscuit, was third in his last start at this level, and hopes to break better in this outing.
7- Ginger Goose (5/2)
4- Call Wil (3/1)
5- E Biscuit (5/1)

Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's another short-priced horse that looks very difficult to beat. The 8, Roundupthelute, is by far the most consistent member of the field, frequently earning figures in the low 80s. He'll also be ridden by Trevor McCarthy and trained by David Jacobson, which are generally keys to a Monmouth victory. He doesn't have a lot of early speed, which makes him somewhat vulnerable, but he should be good enough that he'll roll by the rest of them.
If Roundupthelute doesn't fire, the 2, Bat Cave, is the most likely to upset. He improved sharply in his last effort, at this level. However, both trainer Holly Harris and jockey Jonathan Zayas are ice-cold at this meet. If you can get a decent price, however, he may be worth a shot. The 1, First Ronin, was disappointing in a route last out, but now cuts back to a sprint, where he had been much better. Watch for him, too.
8- Roundupthelute (1/1)
1- First Ronin (6/1)
2- Bat Cave (5/1)

Race 5: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
The 9, The Comish, looks like much the best in here. In his last race, at this level and distance, he rallied from the back of the pack to get up and win it by a neck. Now, he returns to this level, retaining Paco Lopez in the saddle. Trainer Eddie Plesa also has a positive ROI with horses who are claiming repeaters, making him all the more appealing.
The 5, Artempus, returns to the grass, where he had showed better form in the past. Jorge Navarro hits at 41% with horses second off the layoff, so he is dangerous as well. The 6, Very Colorful, has been sharply improving in his last three races, and worked three furlongs in a blazing :35.3 while preparing for this spot.
9- The Comish (4/1)
5- Artempus (9/2)
6- Very Colorful (5/1)

Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
Another wide-open field greets us in here. My pick will be the 2, Joni's Wildcat. He made his first start off a seven-week layoff in his last outing, and rallied up the rail to narrowly miss by a neck. Now, he comes into a very similar spot with a race under his belt, a jockey upgrade to Daniel Centeno, and one of the best last-out figures in the race: a 77. He looks the most likely.
The 5, What the Chub, has the most early speed by far, but tired last out when he got caught in a duel. He hopes to get clear in this spot. The 10, One Red Cat, has been one of the fastest in the field if one tosses his routes. At a 10/1 morning line, he looks very appealing.
2- Joni's Wildcat (7/2)
5- What the Chub (3/1)
10- One Red Cat (10/1)

Race 7: Starter Optional Claiming $30,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The 2, Chatt Hills, looks to be superior to the rest. She's won her last two races at Monmouth, the latter by three easy lengths. Her figures are also the best in the field by a good margin, earning an 85 and 83 in her last two. There's no reason why she can't duplicate those races again, and if she runs to form, she'll crush.
2- Chatt Hills (5/2)
6- Rowd E Allie (7/2)
4- Stormy Sky (9/2)

Race 8: Little Silver Stakes (Division 1), 3yo, Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
First of all, I just want to say that the lack of jockeys named on certain horses is ridiculous. A horse should always have a jockey named when they're entered, unless they're a main-track-only. That needed to be said.
Anyway, we know who the 2, Kawfee Fa Marfa's jockey is, and that's Paco Lopez. Not only that, her grass form is among the best in the field, earning figures of 88, 84, and 83 in her last three. She worked well before her last start at Delaware, which was unfortunately washed off the grass. Now, she gets her chance on the lawn, and she should shine.
The 3, Stormy Regatta, ran well in her first start off a two month layoff last out at Belmont. She seeks further improvement here. The 6, Royal Jewely, has been running sneakily good figures, and could upset at a bit of a price.
2- Kawfee Fa Marfa (7/2)
3- Stormy Regatta (3/1)
6- Royal Jewely (8/1)


Race 9: Starter Allowance $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
I was un"shore" as to who to go with here: the 1, Bull Ensign, or the 3, Candy Portena. While Bull Ensign's last race was very impressive on paper, seeing as he made up 33 lengths, I am dubious as to its legitimacy. This is mainly because that was in an off-the-grass event, with horses who may not have been in their element. Candy Portena, on the other hand, has good figures, but earned his lone career win with a loose, easy lead. I will give the slight edge to Bull Ensign, as he made a good closing rally two starts back, against a more honest field. I still expect him to make a strong closing bid at the end, a bid that will hopefully be a winning one.
1- Bull Ensign (5/2)
3- Candy Portena (3/1)
4- Demand (6/1)

Race 10: Little Silver Stakes (Division 2), 3yo, Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll go with the horse taking the biggest drop in class: the 6, Pine Needles. She was most recently ninth in the Belmont Oaks, behind the brilliant Lady Eli. She earned a figure of 93 in that race, better than anyone in the field has ever done. Now, she moves down into this listed stakes, where she has a big class edge, plus the riding of Joe Bravo. At a 5/2 morning line, she should be a realistic price, and hopefully that will guide her toward victory.
The 2, Isabella Sings, was dismal last out, but had solid form before that. We'll see if she is able to rebound in here. The 8, Kitten's Roar, gets Paco Lopez in the saddle, and trainer Chad Brown is 50% this year at Monmouth.
6- Pine Needles (5/2)
2- Isabella Sings (5/1)
8- Kitten's Roar (3/1)

Race 11: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
My pick to wrap things up before Haskell week starts is the 3, Well Up. In her last race, she closed from thirteen lengths out of it to run a respectable third, beaten only a head for second. She earned a sharply improved figure of 61 in that spot, and further improvement is definitely a possibility.
The 9, Silver Bouquet, also made an impressive rally from the back of the pack last out, however, trainer Stephen diMuro is a chilly 0-20 at the meet. The 4, Kellyslittlesecret, makes her third start off the layoff, and worked well in preparation for this spot.
3- Well Up (4/1)
9- Silver Bouquet (3/1)
4- Kellyslittlesecret (5/1)




The first race Sunday is 12:50 PM EDT. One more day of racing until the Haskell!!!





































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