12 races are scheduled for Sunday at Monmouth, headlined by the $60,000 Klassy Briefcase Stakes, for female grass sprinters.
Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 2yo, 5 Furlongs
It's a maiden claiming race for two-year-olds. An Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez first timer is usually a safe bet. That's what the 6, Patio Games, is. That sounds pretty good to me!
6- Patio Games (5/2)
2- Awesome Ghost (3/1)
3- True Ranger (5/1)
Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
A wide open, difficult race for n/w2 claimers lies ahead. My pick is the 6, Exclusive Symphony. In her last race, she was second at this level, earning a respectable brisnet figure of 74. She had earned a solid 73 two races back, showing that that kind of form is not a fluke. Furthermore, in a race with a lot of early speed, she's got more late speed than the rest of them. I'll take her in this spot.
The 7, Chili's Cowgirl, was disappointing in her first start of the season, but made a mild closing rally before fading. The 3, On Oaks Day, moves back to the dirt, where her form was much better.
6- Exclusive Symphony (7/2)
7- Chili's Cowgirl (6/1)
3- On Oaks Day (3/1)
Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I'll pick the 5, Tell Tale Friend. He crushed a n/w1x field last out by four easy lengths. Before that, he just missed after leading the whole way around. He earned figures of 92 and 98 in those two races. And, unlike some of the others here, he doesn't stop on the lead. Rather, he just keeps going, as evidenced by those two races. I think he'll be on or near the lead, then shake them off and win.
The 6, Pomeroy's Package has a very similar profile: good figures, early speed, and late pace. Both horses have great jockeys--McCarthy on Pomeroy's Package, Bocachica on Tell Tale Friend. Both have capable trainers--Navarro with Tell Tale Friend, Cibelli with Pomeroy's Package. Tell Tale Friend has a slight edge on figures, but both horses are worth consideration.
5- Tell Tale Friend (3/1)
6- Pomeroy's Package (5/2)
1- Battled/1A- Songa (7/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The 1, Keepin it Zeal, looks the most likely. He's got the best figures in the field, running an 84 and an 82 among his last three races. He's also got early speed from post position 1, meaning that he's got the best spot to pop out to the front and draw away to victory.
The 9, Talk Show Talent, ships in from Parx, where he was competitive at this level. He's a strong candidate for the exotic spots. The 8, Joni's Wildcat, narrowly missed last out, and has been working well preparing for this spot.
1- Keepin it Zeal/1A- Zealous Sky (5/2)
9- Talk Show Talent (4/1)
8- Joni's Wildcat (5/1)
Race 5: Claiming $30,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The 5, Frogman Mel, looks like the best. He makes his first start for trainer Marcos Zulueta, who hits at 20% when training for the first time. His figures have also slowly been ascending, up from 75 to 82 to 85. He'll be my selection in this spot.
The 6, Call Wil, has strong early and late speed, so a gate-to-wire win from him is definitely possible. The 8, Ginger Goose, was outkicked in his last start at this level, but his figures still make him a candidate for an exotic position.
5- Frogman Man (5/2)
6- Call Wil (7/2)
8- Ginger Goose (3/1)
Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Even on the surface, the 7, Bobby V, looks like a contender. His three most recent races are 77, 79, and 73. That would place him in the mix anyway, but what separates him from the rest is the fact that it's his first start with Jamie Ness training. Ness hits at a mind-boggling 36% first off the claim. When you take into account his consistently good form, Bobby V looks very tough to beat.
The 3, PJ's Magical Wink, has sharp late speed and good figures. The 5, Bat Cave, sharply improved in his last race, but who knows if that 83 that he earned is legit. I say buyer beware.
7- Bobby V (3/1)
3- PJ's Magical Wink (7/2)
5- Bat Cave (4/1)
Race 7: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
A wide-open field of claimers begins the Sunday Jersey Shore 6. My pick in here is the 8, Subpoena. Her recent figures are among the best in the field, earning a 77, 85, and 80 in her last three. She's also getting some much-needed class relief, dropping from n/w1x allowance company down to claimers. She looks like she'll fit better in here.
The 7, Bobs Pinup Girl, ships in from Belmont Park, where her figures were competitive. However, both her trainer and jockey have been cold as of late. The 3, Echale Salsita, ran well last out at this level, and will benefit if she's kept closer to the pace.
8- Subpoena (3/1)
7- Bobs Pinup Girl (7/2)
3- Echale Salsita (5/1)
Race 8: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I picked the 9, Naughty Delite, in his last race, and he responded with a win. I lean towards him once again in this spot. He's one of the few in the field to consistently run figures in the mid-70s, with a field-best 76 in his last effort. He's also got a lot of late speed, so there's a great chance of him rolling by his tired comrades and winning his second straight.
The 3, Alpha Dude, also earned a 76 in that last effort. and is now cutting back to a sprint from a route. Trainer Jamie Ness hits at 28% with that angle. The 5, Hereosaurus Rex, hopes to rebound following two disappointing efforts at this level.
9- Naughty Delite (7/2)
3- Alpha Dude (5/2)
5- Hereosaurus Rex (7/2)
Race 9: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
It's the second division of the $12.5k claimers race that was previously run in race 7. My pick leans toward the far outside in here, and that's the 11, Lady's Lunar Luck. Her three most recent figures, all earned at Parx and Belmont, were 78, 81, and 80, placing her in the upper echelon of the field. In that last race at Parx, she made up almost ten lengths to just miss. That makes her very dangerous in this spot, and I'll take her to begin the late pick 4.
11- Lady's Lunar Luck (5/2)
1- Fava (3/1)
8- Precious Paula (9/2)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Given that Paco Lopez is named on both halves of the Eddie Plesa entry in here, it is likely that only one of them will run. Hopefully, he will choose the 1A, Walk Away Slow, because he's the most likely winner. He ran well in his first start off the layoff, checking on the turn yet still running a solid third. His figure of 81 in that race is competitive on its own, and he had earned up to an 87 in the past, which would make him much the best.
The 11, Little Hitman, has also shown good form this year, but he'll have some trouble from post 12. The 6, Behr in the Woods, made a sharp closing rally two starts back, and hopes to rebound off a dull effort at Parx last out.
1- Ride This Train/1A- Walk Away Slow (7/2)
11- Little Hitman (3/1)
6- Behr in the Woods (6/1)
Race 11: Klassy Briefcase Stakes, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
She may give me a heart attack rounding the far turn, however, the deep-closing 9, Joya Real, is my pick. In her last race, in the Very One Stakes at Pimlico, she closed furiously to miss by only 3/4 of a length. That was also her first start of the season; despite all that, her figure there was a 95. She's consistently shown herself to be a very fast mare sprinting, and if she's near her 5/1 morning line, that would make her an appealing prospect.
The 2, Lady Shipman, is a personal favorite of mine, and she dominated the Crank it Up Stakes in her last race. She may not be fast enough to get to the early lead, however, which might spell trouble. The 5, Indian Splendor, dominated a n/w2x field over this track last out, and improved strongly in that effort.
9- Joya Real (5/1)
2- Lady Shipman (4/1)
5- Indian Splendor (6/1)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The 12, Frolicking Gal, is the way to go. The reason is, quite simply, Jorge Navarro. He's great with horses taking big class drops (as illustrated by Percussion on Friday), and hits at a whopping 41% with horses second off the layoff. That means, just based on that stat, she is worth a bet is more than 6/5. Don't count on it, though.
12- Frolicking Gal (7/2)
8- O'Lucey (4/1)
4- Caroline's Comedy (3/1)
Saturday, July 11, 2015
Friday, July 10, 2015
July 11, 2015: Picks and Analysis
12 races are part of the Saturday Monmouth card, headlined by the $100,000 Long Branch Stakes. That race should produce a Haskell runner. It's also PDJF day, full of fund-raisers to help out disabled jockeys. It's "shore" to be another fun day of racing on the Jersey shore.
Weather Forecast: 86*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The only horse in here to have run at any point, ever, is the 2, Dance N Denae. She was uninspiring in two career starts, so it's more than likely that a first-timer will win this race. I will go the rather obvious route, and select the 6, Earned. She's being ridden by Abel Castellano, who is having a strong season, and is trained by the always-dangerous Todd Pletcher. She turned in a good 4 furlong workout at Saratoga on July 4, going in :48.0. That's the fastest time anyone in the field has gone at that distance, and I expect that she'll be the fastest one around the track.
The 1, Out of Nowhere, has turned in good 3 furlong bullets in preparation for this race. However, trainer Russell Cash is 0-23 on the meet and is a mere 2-24 with first time starters in recent times. Proceed with caution there. The 3, Thatta Boy Girl, enters this one for the top trainer Jorge Navarro, and is also working well in preparation for this spot.
6- Earned (3/2)
3- Thatta Boy Girl (7/2)
1- Out of Nowhere (12/1)
Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
While breaking her maiden in her last race, the 7, Momma's Favorite, got an uncontested lead and drew away. I think something similar will happen here. Nobody else in the field has shown the amount of speed required to run with her early on, so there's an excellent chance that she'll just cruise to the front and not look back.
When it comes to the horses who will finish behind her, the options are numerous. The 1, Porcia, won her last dirt start easily while rating off the lead. If Momma's Favorite melts down for some reason, she could be the first to take advantage of that. The 4, Trapise in Utopia, chased a clear leader to finish five lengths of her next rival last out.
7- Momma's Favorite (4/1)
1- Porica (7/2)
4- Trapise in Utopia (4/1)
Race 3: Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I'll take the steadily improving filly in here--the 5, Harlington Romance. Last out, at Parx, she earned a figure of 90, achieved while moving up onto a very fast pace. She drew off to a lead of up to four lengths, before having the margin cut to 1 1/4 lengths. Even so, that figure is much, much better, than anyone else has earned in recent times. She can go to the early lead and claim it if she wants, or take back off the lead. Either way, she's got a good shot at winning this one.
The 4, Idontknowgoaskanni, has the best late speed in the field, and drew away from her rivals to win gate-to-wire last out. She's a must-use in any multi-race bets. The 6, Chippette, has earned good figures sprinting, and hopes to improve her speed to routes.
5- Harlington Romance (7/5)
4- Idontknowgoaskanni (5/2)
6- Chippette (9/2)
Race 4: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
Two horses jump out in terms of figures. The 4, Dedicated to Bob, has earned an 85, 88, and 87 in his last three. The 7, Didn't Take It, earned an 88, 89, and 90. Already, Didn't Take It has a slight edge over Dedicated to Bob, and it becomes more apparent when you look at their running styles. Didn't Take It tends to rate off the pace, then use his field-best late kick to get by. That's what he's done in two out of his last three starts, and it puts him in sharp contrast with Dedicated to Bob. I will take Didn't Take It in here.
7- Didn't Take It (9/5)
4- Dedicated to Bob (2/1)
6- Starship Wildcat (5/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 2yo, Fillies, 5 Furlongs
These types of races are always difficult to dissect. Usually, the horses with experience in a maiden claiming race like this aren't that good. And if owners thought that their horse was that good, they probably wouldn't start them off in a $30,000 maiden claiming race. However, somebody has to win this race, so here I go.
My pick will be the 2, Candystand. I know that she was dull in her lone career race, and now she's dropping in for a tag. However, since that race, she's been working well, suggesting that she might be rounding into good form. Besides, you don't exactly have to be a world-beater to win a race like this, and it's definitely possible that she'll improve a lot in her second start.
The 6, Queen Fiddle, had to check in her first race, costing her precious ground. With a cleaner trip here, she should improve. The 3, Habits Lady, is trained by Rudy Rodriguez, who hits at a respectable 17% with first time starters.
2- Candystand (3/1)
6- Queen Fiddle (6/1)
3- Habits Lady (6/1)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 3, Heart of Midway. In her last effort, at Churchill Downs, she set a blazing pace on the lead. She set a :22.4 quarter and a :46.2 half, yet held on almost the whole way and missed by only four lengths. She earned a figure of 83 in that race, the best that anyone in the field has done. Now, she's facing a weaker field than last time, and should get an easier lead. Those are both tools to a "shore" win.
The 2, Victory Square, earned an 82 in her last race at Gulfstream, doing so with a strong closing rally. If she gets a pace to run at, watch out. The same holds true for the 7, Biamonte.
3- Heart of Midway (7/2)
2- Victory Square (6/1)
7- Biamonte (8/1)
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 4, Fuzzy Muzzle, is my pick to begin the Jersey Shore 6. He's got some of the best figures in the race, running a 92, 88, and 91 in his last three. However, his chief virtue is his lack of early speed, in a race that's full of it. If the pace melts down, he'll just storm on by the leaders and draw off to an easy victory. He's also making his second start off the long layoff, meaning that he can very easily improve off that effort.
The 6, Delta Bluesman, has good figures, but tired while on the pace last out. Breaking from the outside post and being in a race with a lot of early speed, that's not a good sign. Hopefully for his backers, Orlando Bocachica will rate him inside of horses, off the pace. We'll see what happens there. The 1A, Blings Express, also has a lot of speed, but has earned figures as high as a 96 in the past. He also had a terrific work on July 3 to prepare for this race, and trainer Claudio Gonzalez has been slowly heating up.
4- Fuzzy Muzzle (4/1)
6- Delta Bluesman (1/1)
1- Twelve Stones/1A- Blings Express (5/2)
Race 8: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
I will begin the late pick 5 with the 1, Lawyer Jim. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he recently earned an 82 against NY-bred allowance company. That's tied for the best last-out figure in the race. The other horse to do that is the 2, Abilio, who hasn't raced on grass since October and possesses terrible late speed. Lawyer Jim, by contrast, has a relatively strong closing kick, so it's likely that he'll save ground on the rail, then roll by around the turn and win it.
The 5, Majestic Jess, won at this level last out, while cruising on the lead. However, he figures to get more pressure on the front end in this spot. The 9, Thunder Calls, ran well at Monmouth last year, but hasn't run since December.
1- Lawyer Jim (7/2)
5- Majestic Jess (3/1)
9- Thunder Calls (5/2)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll go with the 1, Ponzi Scheme. In his last race, on June 19 at this level, he was engaged in a fast-paced duel. He brushed off his rival and began to open up, before tiring out and being passed in the stretch. He still held on for a decent third, earning a best-in-field 93. Now, he has the most early speed, and the advantageous rail position. He's the one to beat.
The 3, Top Clearance, broke his maiden sprinting, and now stretches out to a route here. His races at Churchill were dangerous; watch for him.
1- Ponzi Scheme (5/1)
3- Top Clearance (5/2)
4- Air Squadron (2/1)
Race 10: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
The 3, Nineinthenine, looks like a standout. His last three figures on the grass are 86, 87, and 86. No one else has done better than an 83 in their last three starts. I can forgive his last effort, as it was his first start off a long layoff, and it was washed off the grass. Even though it was a dismal performance, just having something under his belt can't hurt. The fact that he's a 10/1 morning line just makes it all the better. Usually, I wouldn't go all in with both fists, given his lack of recent grass efforts, but at a price like that, you have to go for it.
3- Nineinthenine (10/1)
4- Sonofachub (10/1)
7- Azure Dragon (7/2)
Race 11: Long Branch Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles
On paper, this is a two-horse affair. The 3, Stanford, broke his maiden over this track last year, and was most recently second in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont. The 6, Souper Colossal, won the Sapling last year, and is coming off an ill-fated grass experiment. I will lean toward the latter, even though his dirt figures are a few lengths slower. Those figures, however, were earned last year as a two-year-old. I have to imagine that he has improved at three, and that would put him at least on par with Stanford. When one considers that he'll likely be a better price than Stanford, the decision as to who to bet becomes a no-brainer.
An interesting longshot, if one wants to go that route, may be the 4, Fortuitous Path. He earned an 89 in his last race while breaking his maiden sprinting. He can "shore"ly improve in this race.
6- Souper Colossal (8/5)
4- Fortuitous Path (5/1)
3- Stanford (7/5)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
My get-out pick is the 3, Key d'Oro. Last time out, she narrowly missed at this level, winning by a half length. Her figure there was a 79, the best in the field by a lot. She's also got the dangerous Vitali-Bocachica combination, which only enhances her case.
3- Key d'Oro (5/2)
8- Bella Yolanda (7/2)
7- Birch Creek Crazy (10/1)
Weather Forecast: 86*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The only horse in here to have run at any point, ever, is the 2, Dance N Denae. She was uninspiring in two career starts, so it's more than likely that a first-timer will win this race. I will go the rather obvious route, and select the 6, Earned. She's being ridden by Abel Castellano, who is having a strong season, and is trained by the always-dangerous Todd Pletcher. She turned in a good 4 furlong workout at Saratoga on July 4, going in :48.0. That's the fastest time anyone in the field has gone at that distance, and I expect that she'll be the fastest one around the track.
The 1, Out of Nowhere, has turned in good 3 furlong bullets in preparation for this race. However, trainer Russell Cash is 0-23 on the meet and is a mere 2-24 with first time starters in recent times. Proceed with caution there. The 3, Thatta Boy Girl, enters this one for the top trainer Jorge Navarro, and is also working well in preparation for this spot.
6- Earned (3/2)
3- Thatta Boy Girl (7/2)
1- Out of Nowhere (12/1)
Race 2: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile 70 Yards
While breaking her maiden in her last race, the 7, Momma's Favorite, got an uncontested lead and drew away. I think something similar will happen here. Nobody else in the field has shown the amount of speed required to run with her early on, so there's an excellent chance that she'll just cruise to the front and not look back.
When it comes to the horses who will finish behind her, the options are numerous. The 1, Porcia, won her last dirt start easily while rating off the lead. If Momma's Favorite melts down for some reason, she could be the first to take advantage of that. The 4, Trapise in Utopia, chased a clear leader to finish five lengths of her next rival last out.
7- Momma's Favorite (4/1)
1- Porica (7/2)
4- Trapise in Utopia (4/1)
Race 3: Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
I'll take the steadily improving filly in here--the 5, Harlington Romance. Last out, at Parx, she earned a figure of 90, achieved while moving up onto a very fast pace. She drew off to a lead of up to four lengths, before having the margin cut to 1 1/4 lengths. Even so, that figure is much, much better, than anyone else has earned in recent times. She can go to the early lead and claim it if she wants, or take back off the lead. Either way, she's got a good shot at winning this one.
The 4, Idontknowgoaskanni, has the best late speed in the field, and drew away from her rivals to win gate-to-wire last out. She's a must-use in any multi-race bets. The 6, Chippette, has earned good figures sprinting, and hopes to improve her speed to routes.
5- Harlington Romance (7/5)
4- Idontknowgoaskanni (5/2)
6- Chippette (9/2)
Race 4: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
Two horses jump out in terms of figures. The 4, Dedicated to Bob, has earned an 85, 88, and 87 in his last three. The 7, Didn't Take It, earned an 88, 89, and 90. Already, Didn't Take It has a slight edge over Dedicated to Bob, and it becomes more apparent when you look at their running styles. Didn't Take It tends to rate off the pace, then use his field-best late kick to get by. That's what he's done in two out of his last three starts, and it puts him in sharp contrast with Dedicated to Bob. I will take Didn't Take It in here.
7- Didn't Take It (9/5)
4- Dedicated to Bob (2/1)
6- Starship Wildcat (5/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 2yo, Fillies, 5 Furlongs
These types of races are always difficult to dissect. Usually, the horses with experience in a maiden claiming race like this aren't that good. And if owners thought that their horse was that good, they probably wouldn't start them off in a $30,000 maiden claiming race. However, somebody has to win this race, so here I go.
My pick will be the 2, Candystand. I know that she was dull in her lone career race, and now she's dropping in for a tag. However, since that race, she's been working well, suggesting that she might be rounding into good form. Besides, you don't exactly have to be a world-beater to win a race like this, and it's definitely possible that she'll improve a lot in her second start.
The 6, Queen Fiddle, had to check in her first race, costing her precious ground. With a cleaner trip here, she should improve. The 3, Habits Lady, is trained by Rudy Rodriguez, who hits at a respectable 17% with first time starters.
2- Candystand (3/1)
6- Queen Fiddle (6/1)
3- Habits Lady (6/1)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll take the 3, Heart of Midway. In her last effort, at Churchill Downs, she set a blazing pace on the lead. She set a :22.4 quarter and a :46.2 half, yet held on almost the whole way and missed by only four lengths. She earned a figure of 83 in that race, the best that anyone in the field has done. Now, she's facing a weaker field than last time, and should get an easier lead. Those are both tools to a "shore" win.
The 2, Victory Square, earned an 82 in her last race at Gulfstream, doing so with a strong closing rally. If she gets a pace to run at, watch out. The same holds true for the 7, Biamonte.
3- Heart of Midway (7/2)
2- Victory Square (6/1)
7- Biamonte (8/1)
Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 4, Fuzzy Muzzle, is my pick to begin the Jersey Shore 6. He's got some of the best figures in the race, running a 92, 88, and 91 in his last three. However, his chief virtue is his lack of early speed, in a race that's full of it. If the pace melts down, he'll just storm on by the leaders and draw off to an easy victory. He's also making his second start off the long layoff, meaning that he can very easily improve off that effort.
The 6, Delta Bluesman, has good figures, but tired while on the pace last out. Breaking from the outside post and being in a race with a lot of early speed, that's not a good sign. Hopefully for his backers, Orlando Bocachica will rate him inside of horses, off the pace. We'll see what happens there. The 1A, Blings Express, also has a lot of speed, but has earned figures as high as a 96 in the past. He also had a terrific work on July 3 to prepare for this race, and trainer Claudio Gonzalez has been slowly heating up.
4- Fuzzy Muzzle (4/1)
6- Delta Bluesman (1/1)
1- Twelve Stones/1A- Blings Express (5/2)
Race 8: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
I will begin the late pick 5 with the 1, Lawyer Jim. He's shipping in from Belmont, where he recently earned an 82 against NY-bred allowance company. That's tied for the best last-out figure in the race. The other horse to do that is the 2, Abilio, who hasn't raced on grass since October and possesses terrible late speed. Lawyer Jim, by contrast, has a relatively strong closing kick, so it's likely that he'll save ground on the rail, then roll by around the turn and win it.
The 5, Majestic Jess, won at this level last out, while cruising on the lead. However, he figures to get more pressure on the front end in this spot. The 9, Thunder Calls, ran well at Monmouth last year, but hasn't run since December.
1- Lawyer Jim (7/2)
5- Majestic Jess (3/1)
9- Thunder Calls (5/2)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
I'll go with the 1, Ponzi Scheme. In his last race, on June 19 at this level, he was engaged in a fast-paced duel. He brushed off his rival and began to open up, before tiring out and being passed in the stretch. He still held on for a decent third, earning a best-in-field 93. Now, he has the most early speed, and the advantageous rail position. He's the one to beat.
The 3, Top Clearance, broke his maiden sprinting, and now stretches out to a route here. His races at Churchill were dangerous; watch for him.
1- Ponzi Scheme (5/1)
3- Top Clearance (5/2)
4- Air Squadron (2/1)
Race 10: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
The 3, Nineinthenine, looks like a standout. His last three figures on the grass are 86, 87, and 86. No one else has done better than an 83 in their last three starts. I can forgive his last effort, as it was his first start off a long layoff, and it was washed off the grass. Even though it was a dismal performance, just having something under his belt can't hurt. The fact that he's a 10/1 morning line just makes it all the better. Usually, I wouldn't go all in with both fists, given his lack of recent grass efforts, but at a price like that, you have to go for it.
3- Nineinthenine (10/1)
4- Sonofachub (10/1)
7- Azure Dragon (7/2)
Race 11: Long Branch Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/16 Miles
On paper, this is a two-horse affair. The 3, Stanford, broke his maiden over this track last year, and was most recently second in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont. The 6, Souper Colossal, won the Sapling last year, and is coming off an ill-fated grass experiment. I will lean toward the latter, even though his dirt figures are a few lengths slower. Those figures, however, were earned last year as a two-year-old. I have to imagine that he has improved at three, and that would put him at least on par with Stanford. When one considers that he'll likely be a better price than Stanford, the decision as to who to bet becomes a no-brainer.
An interesting longshot, if one wants to go that route, may be the 4, Fortuitous Path. He earned an 89 in his last race while breaking his maiden sprinting. He can "shore"ly improve in this race.
6- Souper Colossal (8/5)
4- Fortuitous Path (5/1)
3- Stanford (7/5)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
My get-out pick is the 3, Key d'Oro. Last time out, she narrowly missed at this level, winning by a half length. Her figure there was a 79, the best in the field by a lot. She's also got the dangerous Vitali-Bocachica combination, which only enhances her case.
3- Key d'Oro (5/2)
8- Bella Yolanda (7/2)
7- Birch Creek Crazy (10/1)
Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/10/15
Sunny skies and warm temperatures greeted the crowd at Monmouth today. Here's what happened:
Race 1 (Aubrees the First, Derek Ryan-Carlos Olivero, 1:06.3)
Runaway Train and heavily favored White Knuckle Ride dueled each other into oblivion going down the backstretch. It looked like the race would set up perfectly for Silver Majorette, who rated off that duel, but she too was defeated by Aubrees the First. That one rolled up on the far outside and proved simply better than the rest.
Race 2 (Keep the Canoli, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:45.0)
Some expected sights in here: Bea Wildcat rushed out to a long early lead, then stopped. Laghubaar rallied three-wide to make a bid at the front, but Keep the Canoli rallied up the inside and got the victory. Just goes to show you the impact ground loss has on finishes. Laghubaar wound up disqualified to third for interference in the stretch.
Race 3 (Thinking of Mom, James Frangella-Andre Worrie, :57.4)
With Thinking of Dad and Thinking of Mom entered in the same race, one has to think that Frank Mirahmadi was hoping for them to battle down the stretch, a la Mywifeknowseverything and Thewifedoesntknow. Unfortunately, Thinking of Mom broke her maiden going away, while Thinking of Dad barely picked up her feet. Sounds like Mom will be the breadwinner of that stable.
Race 4 (Hold Everything, Patricia Farro-Ramon Moya, 1:11.4)
It was an extreme merry-go-round race: Hold Everything, Gerry With a G, and Brother Mark ran 1-2-3 the entire way around. Especially when one considers that Hold Everything got away with a :22.3 opening quarter, this whole race was extremely ridiculous.
Race 5 (Rain on Fire, Skip Einhorn-Tommy Turner, 1:47.3)
I took a flyer with Rain on Fire, and she wound up winning at 7/1 odds. How do you like that?
Noteworthy efforts in here from Holy Scat and Waki Girl, who both made very wide moves to just miss. Terrible race from Just Like Kaki, who sat off a fast pace and really had no excuses, yet had less than no rally.
Race 6 (Percussion, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:10.0)
Navarro claims Percussion for $20,000 out of his last race, drops him in for $10,000 here, and he wins for fun. Seems legit.
Race 7 (Trainingforsuccess, Mitchell Friedman-Gabriel Saez, 1:51.4)
Trainingforsuccess looked like a dead duck at the quarter pole, when Hudson Miracle came up to his outside and looked loaded for bear. However, in a miracle in and of itself, Trainingforsuccess held him off all the way down the stretch to win it by 1 1/4 lengths. George Cross, who looked as if he would be off the board at the quarter pole, re-rallied to get up for third.
Race 8 (Cho Time, Claudio Gonzalez-Nik Juarez, 1:10.2)
Smart ride by Nik Juarez, moving up his mount off longshot leader Al's Jubalee. While everyone else was being irrationally passive, Cho Time kept moving up, and passed Al's Jubalee once that one tired. Unsurprisingly, no one else was close. That shows you the benefits of being aggressive.
Race 9 (VV Goodnight, Tom Proctor-Keiber Coa, 1:44.3)
Shesfromboston had won two in a row coming in here, but went off at 19/1, making me think I was getting a great value. Unfortunately, it didn't matter, as she was an ineffectual sixth. VV Goodnight, meanwhile, made a four-wide bid at the front and just got up to nip American Girl.
Race 10 (Secret Six, Frank Poalucci-Christian Santiago-Reyes, 1:14.0)
Twist and Turn was second in here at 3/5. She looks like she's quickly turning into sucker horse material, and I would avoid her at all costs in the future. Secret Six, meanwhile, just walked to the front end and galloped home.
Race 1 (Aubrees the First, Derek Ryan-Carlos Olivero, 1:06.3)
Runaway Train and heavily favored White Knuckle Ride dueled each other into oblivion going down the backstretch. It looked like the race would set up perfectly for Silver Majorette, who rated off that duel, but she too was defeated by Aubrees the First. That one rolled up on the far outside and proved simply better than the rest.
Race 2 (Keep the Canoli, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:45.0)
Some expected sights in here: Bea Wildcat rushed out to a long early lead, then stopped. Laghubaar rallied three-wide to make a bid at the front, but Keep the Canoli rallied up the inside and got the victory. Just goes to show you the impact ground loss has on finishes. Laghubaar wound up disqualified to third for interference in the stretch.
Race 3 (Thinking of Mom, James Frangella-Andre Worrie, :57.4)
With Thinking of Dad and Thinking of Mom entered in the same race, one has to think that Frank Mirahmadi was hoping for them to battle down the stretch, a la Mywifeknowseverything and Thewifedoesntknow. Unfortunately, Thinking of Mom broke her maiden going away, while Thinking of Dad barely picked up her feet. Sounds like Mom will be the breadwinner of that stable.
Race 4 (Hold Everything, Patricia Farro-Ramon Moya, 1:11.4)
It was an extreme merry-go-round race: Hold Everything, Gerry With a G, and Brother Mark ran 1-2-3 the entire way around. Especially when one considers that Hold Everything got away with a :22.3 opening quarter, this whole race was extremely ridiculous.
Race 5 (Rain on Fire, Skip Einhorn-Tommy Turner, 1:47.3)
I took a flyer with Rain on Fire, and she wound up winning at 7/1 odds. How do you like that?
Noteworthy efforts in here from Holy Scat and Waki Girl, who both made very wide moves to just miss. Terrible race from Just Like Kaki, who sat off a fast pace and really had no excuses, yet had less than no rally.
Race 6 (Percussion, Jorge Navarro-Orlando Bocachica, 1:10.0)
Navarro claims Percussion for $20,000 out of his last race, drops him in for $10,000 here, and he wins for fun. Seems legit.
Race 7 (Trainingforsuccess, Mitchell Friedman-Gabriel Saez, 1:51.4)
Trainingforsuccess looked like a dead duck at the quarter pole, when Hudson Miracle came up to his outside and looked loaded for bear. However, in a miracle in and of itself, Trainingforsuccess held him off all the way down the stretch to win it by 1 1/4 lengths. George Cross, who looked as if he would be off the board at the quarter pole, re-rallied to get up for third.
Race 8 (Cho Time, Claudio Gonzalez-Nik Juarez, 1:10.2)
Smart ride by Nik Juarez, moving up his mount off longshot leader Al's Jubalee. While everyone else was being irrationally passive, Cho Time kept moving up, and passed Al's Jubalee once that one tired. Unsurprisingly, no one else was close. That shows you the benefits of being aggressive.
Race 9 (VV Goodnight, Tom Proctor-Keiber Coa, 1:44.3)
Shesfromboston had won two in a row coming in here, but went off at 19/1, making me think I was getting a great value. Unfortunately, it didn't matter, as she was an ineffectual sixth. VV Goodnight, meanwhile, made a four-wide bid at the front and just got up to nip American Girl.
Race 10 (Secret Six, Frank Poalucci-Christian Santiago-Reyes, 1:14.0)
Twist and Turn was second in here at 3/5. She looks like she's quickly turning into sucker horse material, and I would avoid her at all costs in the future. Secret Six, meanwhile, just walked to the front end and galloped home.
Thursday, July 9, 2015
July 10, 2015: Picks and Analysis
United Nations weekend is over, and there's still eleven racing days until the Haskell. In the meantime, there's still plenty of good racing, starting with Friday's program.
Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, NJ-bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The only one of the six to have any experience is the 5, Runaway Train, who has earned brisnet figures of 70 in each of her two starts. She steps down into Jersey-bred company, off of two good efforts against open maidens. In her first effort, she battled boldly down the stretch, only to miss by a head. Her second start was not as impressive, but she still managed a decent second. In a field of Jersey-bred maidens, it's unlikely that there are any superstars in here. As such, a slight improvement off that 70 will probably be enough to get the job done.
Among all the first-timers in here, the 3, White Knuckle Ride, looks the best. She's got the Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez combination. The 6, Silver Majorette, has some decent workouts coming into this race, but trainer Terri Pompay is less-than-impressive with first-time starters.
5- Runaway Train (2/1)
3- White Knuckle Ride (9/5)
6- Silver Majorette (7/2)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
My pick in here is the 2, Keep the Canoli. He was beaten by six lengths in his last start, but that was against $16,000 SOC company. Now, he drops down to the $5,000 level, where his last-out figure of 84 looks to be one of the best in the field. Earlier in the year at Parx, he earned up to an 89 in a route. Furthermore, he's got enough early speed that he can control the pace if he wants to, and has enough late pace to hold off the leaders. He's my pick to round out the early double.
The 6, Dubious Bachelor, earned that same figure of 84 last out at this level. He doesn't have the back form of Keep the Canoli, but is nonetheless a serious threat. The 4, Key to a Cure, has had some decent closing rallies in the past, and has the potential to run well if the pace melts.
2- Keep the Canoli (3/2)
6- Dubious Bachelor (5/2)
4- Key to a Cure (8/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
It's not the best of fields in here, so it's a good time to experiment and find a bit of a dark horse. That horse for me is the 7, Acqua Bella. She was dismissed at 56/1 in her first start, at this level, However, she made an impressive five-wide move to the lead. Even though she wound up fourth, beaten nine lengths, she was only three lengths behind the second-place finishers. She earned a figure of 71 in that race, the second-best number in the field. With a more ground-saving trip and a race under her belt, I project some improvement. That would likely mean victory.
The 8, Royal Stage, was a length clear of Acqua Bella last out, while saving two lengths of ground more. She's also got a far outside post, which may cause her to lose more ground. The 4, St. Abbey, makes her second start off the layoff, and possesses some of the best late speed figures in the race.
7- Acqua Bella (5/1)
8- Royal Stage (3/1)
4- St. Abbey (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $7,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 5, Brother Mark, is going to be hard to beat in here. Two out of his last three figures are 82 and 77, which would blow away anyone else in the field. As long as he runs back to either one of those races, he'll be next to impossible to beat.
Of course, it's still possible to make money by using horses underneath. The 4, Atajo, ships in from Penn National, where he has a tendency to break slowly. However, his closing speed, compared to the rest of the field, means that he can still rally and get an exotic spot. The 1A, Tiznow a Titan, has been running steadily improving figures, and could provide a bonanza underneath.
5- Brother Mark (7/5)
4- Atajo (4/1)
1- Dontellyourmother/1A- Tiznow a Titan (12/1)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Jersey Shore 6 begins with a bunch of horses that are almost indistinguishably mediocre. I'll take a stab with the 6, Rain On Fire. In her lone grass start to date, on June 20 here at Monmouth, she finished a fairly distant fourth, earning a figure of 68 in that race. Her late speed numbers are decent, and she has the possibility of improving off of that race. Now, I'm not saying that Rain On Fire is a cinch, or is even that great of a horse, but in a race like this, she's worth a shot.
The 7, Just Like Kaki, possesses a lot of early speed and has run figures up to 76 in the past. The 1, Bourbon Tune, is also an esoteric longshot, but showed some decent late speed in her last grass start. She can clunk up for an exotic spot, for "shore".
6- Rain on Fire (6/1)
7- Just Like Kaki (3/1)
1- Bourbon Trace (30/1)
Race 6: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
In his last race, the 7, Broad Rule, was much the best. Despite being hung very wide the entire way around, he drew off to win by 2 1/2 lengths (although he was later disqualified), earning a figure of 86. Assuming that he manages to save more ground in here, he can definitely jump off that figure. And based off the way that this race sets up, he just might. The way he rates among other horses in terms of pace, there's a chance he can slide in off the early leaders, then take over once they fade. If he doesn't get into any more trouble with the stewards, expect to cash on him.
The 1, How Convenient, has the McCarthy-Ness combination on his side, plus three ascending figures. The 4, Joey Whispers, has the best last-out figure in the race, of 90.
7- Broad Rule (8/1)
1- How Convenient/1A- Dancing Lion (7/2)
4- Joey Whispers (7/2)
Race 7: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
I'll go with the 9, George Cross. He may have been overmatched against stakes company last out; he was competitive at this level prior to that race. Also, his figure of 83 in that last outing is the best in the race. In this wide-open field, he's "shorely" worth a good look, and hopefully will be a decent price.
9- George Cross (3/1)
5- Hudson Miracle (5/2)
3- Stableford (3/1)
Race 8: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If the 5, Backwater Blues, runs back to his recent form, he'll be tough to beat. In his last start, he ran a figure of 91, while showing some sharp late closing speed. Here, he figures to sit off of the pace, then make a big closing rally to win it.
The 6, Pacific Image, has run some decent figures, but is being ridden by the ice-cold Andre Worrie. Watch for him in the exotics, but buyer beware on him for the win spot. The 1, Right on Course, steps down from starter allowance company, and may find the going more to his liking in this spot.
5- Backwater Blues (4/1)
6- Pacific Image (8/1)
1- Right on Course (2/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
It's a well-known fact that the 9, Shesfromboston, loves Monmouth. In fact, she's won her last two races here, running figures of 87 and 81, respectively. She turned in a great workout at Fair Hill prior to this race, showing that she's ready to fire another big one here. So with a horse who loves Monmouth, has improving form, and should be a good value, is it possible to go wrong? The answer is no.
If she draws off the also-eligible list, the 10, Marabea, is dangerous. Trainer Christophe Clement hits at 23% with horses making their first start in the United States. The 7, Nisharora, ran a career-best first off the layoff last off the layoff and seeks to improve here.
9- Shesfromboston (8/1)
10- Marabea (3/1)
7- Nisharora (4/1)
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Even with her outside post 12, one might think that it's hard to see the 11, Twist and Turn, getting beat in here. Her last three figures are 68, 69, and 70. Only one horse in the field has earned as high as a 68 in her last three. My only issue with her, and the thing that prevents me from really going crazy, is that she's been favored in all three of her starts this year, but she's lost all of them. While I know she really jumps off the page here, she looked like a standout in her last race, and ran a disappointing third. She's the most likely winner, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
The 4, Nautical Breezes, ran a (relatively) decent figure in her last race, and seeks to improve second off the layoff. The 5, Well Up, has some good late speed numbers, and hopes to return to the form of her first career start.
11- Twist and Turn (8/5)
4- Nautical Breezes (15/1)
5- Well Up (8/1)
The first race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!
Weather Forecast: 88*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, Fillies, NJ-bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
The only one of the six to have any experience is the 5, Runaway Train, who has earned brisnet figures of 70 in each of her two starts. She steps down into Jersey-bred company, off of two good efforts against open maidens. In her first effort, she battled boldly down the stretch, only to miss by a head. Her second start was not as impressive, but she still managed a decent second. In a field of Jersey-bred maidens, it's unlikely that there are any superstars in here. As such, a slight improvement off that 70 will probably be enough to get the job done.
Among all the first-timers in here, the 3, White Knuckle Ride, looks the best. She's got the Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez combination. The 6, Silver Majorette, has some decent workouts coming into this race, but trainer Terri Pompay is less-than-impressive with first-time starters.
5- Runaway Train (2/1)
3- White Knuckle Ride (9/5)
6- Silver Majorette (7/2)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
My pick in here is the 2, Keep the Canoli. He was beaten by six lengths in his last start, but that was against $16,000 SOC company. Now, he drops down to the $5,000 level, where his last-out figure of 84 looks to be one of the best in the field. Earlier in the year at Parx, he earned up to an 89 in a route. Furthermore, he's got enough early speed that he can control the pace if he wants to, and has enough late pace to hold off the leaders. He's my pick to round out the early double.
The 6, Dubious Bachelor, earned that same figure of 84 last out at this level. He doesn't have the back form of Keep the Canoli, but is nonetheless a serious threat. The 4, Key to a Cure, has had some decent closing rallies in the past, and has the potential to run well if the pace melts.
2- Keep the Canoli (3/2)
6- Dubious Bachelor (5/2)
4- Key to a Cure (8/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
It's not the best of fields in here, so it's a good time to experiment and find a bit of a dark horse. That horse for me is the 7, Acqua Bella. She was dismissed at 56/1 in her first start, at this level, However, she made an impressive five-wide move to the lead. Even though she wound up fourth, beaten nine lengths, she was only three lengths behind the second-place finishers. She earned a figure of 71 in that race, the second-best number in the field. With a more ground-saving trip and a race under her belt, I project some improvement. That would likely mean victory.
The 8, Royal Stage, was a length clear of Acqua Bella last out, while saving two lengths of ground more. She's also got a far outside post, which may cause her to lose more ground. The 4, St. Abbey, makes her second start off the layoff, and possesses some of the best late speed figures in the race.
7- Acqua Bella (5/1)
8- Royal Stage (3/1)
4- St. Abbey (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $7,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
The 5, Brother Mark, is going to be hard to beat in here. Two out of his last three figures are 82 and 77, which would blow away anyone else in the field. As long as he runs back to either one of those races, he'll be next to impossible to beat.
Of course, it's still possible to make money by using horses underneath. The 4, Atajo, ships in from Penn National, where he has a tendency to break slowly. However, his closing speed, compared to the rest of the field, means that he can still rally and get an exotic spot. The 1A, Tiznow a Titan, has been running steadily improving figures, and could provide a bonanza underneath.
5- Brother Mark (7/5)
4- Atajo (4/1)
1- Dontellyourmother/1A- Tiznow a Titan (12/1)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $20,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The Jersey Shore 6 begins with a bunch of horses that are almost indistinguishably mediocre. I'll take a stab with the 6, Rain On Fire. In her lone grass start to date, on June 20 here at Monmouth, she finished a fairly distant fourth, earning a figure of 68 in that race. Her late speed numbers are decent, and she has the possibility of improving off of that race. Now, I'm not saying that Rain On Fire is a cinch, or is even that great of a horse, but in a race like this, she's worth a shot.
The 7, Just Like Kaki, possesses a lot of early speed and has run figures up to 76 in the past. The 1, Bourbon Tune, is also an esoteric longshot, but showed some decent late speed in her last grass start. She can clunk up for an exotic spot, for "shore".
6- Rain on Fire (6/1)
7- Just Like Kaki (3/1)
1- Bourbon Trace (30/1)
Race 6: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
In his last race, the 7, Broad Rule, was much the best. Despite being hung very wide the entire way around, he drew off to win by 2 1/2 lengths (although he was later disqualified), earning a figure of 86. Assuming that he manages to save more ground in here, he can definitely jump off that figure. And based off the way that this race sets up, he just might. The way he rates among other horses in terms of pace, there's a chance he can slide in off the early leaders, then take over once they fade. If he doesn't get into any more trouble with the stewards, expect to cash on him.
The 1, How Convenient, has the McCarthy-Ness combination on his side, plus three ascending figures. The 4, Joey Whispers, has the best last-out figure in the race, of 90.
7- Broad Rule (8/1)
1- How Convenient/1A- Dancing Lion (7/2)
4- Joey Whispers (7/2)
Race 7: Claiming $16,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
I'll go with the 9, George Cross. He may have been overmatched against stakes company last out; he was competitive at this level prior to that race. Also, his figure of 83 in that last outing is the best in the race. In this wide-open field, he's "shorely" worth a good look, and hopefully will be a decent price.
9- George Cross (3/1)
5- Hudson Miracle (5/2)
3- Stableford (3/1)
Race 8: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If the 5, Backwater Blues, runs back to his recent form, he'll be tough to beat. In his last start, he ran a figure of 91, while showing some sharp late closing speed. Here, he figures to sit off of the pace, then make a big closing rally to win it.
The 6, Pacific Image, has run some decent figures, but is being ridden by the ice-cold Andre Worrie. Watch for him in the exotics, but buyer beware on him for the win spot. The 1, Right on Course, steps down from starter allowance company, and may find the going more to his liking in this spot.
5- Backwater Blues (4/1)
6- Pacific Image (8/1)
1- Right on Course (2/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
It's a well-known fact that the 9, Shesfromboston, loves Monmouth. In fact, she's won her last two races here, running figures of 87 and 81, respectively. She turned in a great workout at Fair Hill prior to this race, showing that she's ready to fire another big one here. So with a horse who loves Monmouth, has improving form, and should be a good value, is it possible to go wrong? The answer is no.
If she draws off the also-eligible list, the 10, Marabea, is dangerous. Trainer Christophe Clement hits at 23% with horses making their first start in the United States. The 7, Nisharora, ran a career-best first off the layoff last off the layoff and seeks to improve here.
9- Shesfromboston (8/1)
10- Marabea (3/1)
7- Nisharora (4/1)
Race 10: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
Even with her outside post 12, one might think that it's hard to see the 11, Twist and Turn, getting beat in here. Her last three figures are 68, 69, and 70. Only one horse in the field has earned as high as a 68 in her last three. My only issue with her, and the thing that prevents me from really going crazy, is that she's been favored in all three of her starts this year, but she's lost all of them. While I know she really jumps off the page here, she looked like a standout in her last race, and ran a disappointing third. She's the most likely winner, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
The 4, Nautical Breezes, ran a (relatively) decent figure in her last race, and seeks to improve second off the layoff. The 5, Well Up, has some good late speed numbers, and hopes to return to the form of her first career start.
11- Twist and Turn (8/5)
4- Nautical Breezes (15/1)
5- Well Up (8/1)
The first race is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck!
Monday, July 6, 2015
Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/5/15
Terrific weather and a great card greeted the Monmouth crowd Sunday, as the United Nations Stakes headlined a terrific 12-race program.
Race 1 (Concealedwithakiss, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:11.2)
Concealedwithakiss sat the trip that I was hoping my pick, Just Sisters, would sit. Haunted Vision went out to a fast early lead by herself, and Concealedwithakiss wound up picking up the pieces late. Fiesta Rose also rated off the leader, but couldn't catch Concealedwithakiss, and wound up second.
Race 2 (Ettelson, James Frangella-Jose Ferrer, 1:40.1)
Ausable River looked dangerous coming around the turn in front, but was run down by Brad Thomas pick Ettelson in the final strides. Ausable River sat a great trip, too--he rated just off leader Quiet Danger, then rolled on by once that one tired.
Race 3 (The Comish, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:02.2)
The Comish needed every bit of that 5 1/2 furlong distance to get past Very Colorful, who led almost all the way down the stretch. It was only in one of the last jumps that The Comish managed to get up and score. That makes it two on the day for the Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez combo.
Race 4 (Saturday Special, Jorge Navarro-Carlos Marquez, 1:37.4)
I love it when races play out just like they project on paper to. Here, Saturday Special rated off the two leaders, then strolled on by once they tired, just like the past performances said they would. Stolen Love, one of the speedsters, hung on alright to finish second.
Race 5 (Delta Outlaw, George Weaver-Irad Ortiz, 1:10.0)
Delta Outlaw may have been the one who broke his maiden here, but give credit to first-timer Park Ranger. He was bet down to favortism at 9/5, made a move up the inside off the fast pace, but couldn't last. Nevertheless, he was well-bet, the race was run in a very fast time, and the pedigree suggests he wants to go long. If he's in at a route next time out, watch for him.
Delta Outlaw, of course, won this one by three lengths in that easy time of 1:10.0, after overtaking front-running One Lucky Step. Both of them ran big, and have to be considered next time.
Race 6 (Ride Ride Ride, John Tammaro-Abel Castellano, 1:44.1)
It was a very easy victory for Ride Ride Ride, but lost in the shuffle of all of that was Cheddar Chub. He was more than 12 lengths back at one point, before making a decent closing rally to get up and score second. Ride Ride Ride, meanwhile, sat a terrific trip. He was off the two leaders, then rolled by them once they folded.
Race 7 (Picozza, Todd Pletcher-Paco Lopez, 1:41.3)
Picozza was off for more than nine months going into this race, but it hardly mattered. Gourmet Delight pounced on the leaders going around the far turn and looked like a clear winner, but Picozza exploded from the back of the pack and won it going away. This horse, if he stays healthy, might wind up being a good one. We'll see.
Race 8 (Bustin Out, Chuck Spina-Jose Ferrer, 1:10.3)
This race featured a star in the making. Bustin Out won this one by only six lengths, but the way she was moving on the far turn, it could've been at least twice that. Jose Ferrer geared her down in the stretch once she opened up a nine-length lead, and cut down on what could've been a much faster time. So far, she's been impressive in her two career wins. We'll see what the future holds for her.
Race 9 (Casual Smile, Chad Brown-Irad Ortiz, 1:43.2)
The Chad Brown on grass angle is usually dangerous. In Monmouth allowance company, it's money. She swooped on the outside to roll past the field and score easily. My Jolie, making her first start in a year, rallied admirably down the stretch to score second. She might be one to watch next time out.
Race 10 (Bradester, Eddie Kenneally-Corey Lanerie, 1:35.1)
I mistakenly thought that this was a two-horse affair: Race Day, who was bet down to 4/5, and Red Vine, who went off at 5/2. Neither one of them pulled off a victory, however. Rather, Bradester dueled with Fabulous Kid going down the backstretch, then brushed him off and drew away easily. Red Vine made up some ground to get second, while Race Day finished a disappointing sixth. That was his first start in three months, however, so I will give him a chance to improve next time out.
Race 11 (Big Blue Kitten, Chad Brown-Joe Bravo, 2:11.4)
This year's United Nations inspired shades of Shake the Bank in 2005 or Presious Passion in 2009. The 129/1 Shining Copper, in the race to serve as a rabbit for Big Blue Kitten, sprinted to a long early lead, and led the way entering the stretch for the final time. Would he be able to pull of a shocker? No. His stablemate, Big Blue Kitten, rallied from the back of the pack to win his second United Nations, and give Monmouth veteran Joe Bravo his first winner in this race.
Favored Main Sequence, meanwhile, was a flat seventh at 8/5. This was his first start since coming back from Dubai; we'll see in his next race if he'll return to form, or if he's spent.
Race 12 (We B Jammin, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:11.4)
We B Jammin and Brother Chub were on the pace together, just like last time. While We B Jammin drew off to win by four, Brother Chub ran a much-improved race to finish third. He might be an improving horse, too.
Race 1 (Concealedwithakiss, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:11.2)
Concealedwithakiss sat the trip that I was hoping my pick, Just Sisters, would sit. Haunted Vision went out to a fast early lead by herself, and Concealedwithakiss wound up picking up the pieces late. Fiesta Rose also rated off the leader, but couldn't catch Concealedwithakiss, and wound up second.
Race 2 (Ettelson, James Frangella-Jose Ferrer, 1:40.1)
Ausable River looked dangerous coming around the turn in front, but was run down by Brad Thomas pick Ettelson in the final strides. Ausable River sat a great trip, too--he rated just off leader Quiet Danger, then rolled on by once that one tired.
Race 3 (The Comish, Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez, 1:02.2)
The Comish needed every bit of that 5 1/2 furlong distance to get past Very Colorful, who led almost all the way down the stretch. It was only in one of the last jumps that The Comish managed to get up and score. That makes it two on the day for the Eddie Plesa-Paco Lopez combo.
Race 4 (Saturday Special, Jorge Navarro-Carlos Marquez, 1:37.4)
I love it when races play out just like they project on paper to. Here, Saturday Special rated off the two leaders, then strolled on by once they tired, just like the past performances said they would. Stolen Love, one of the speedsters, hung on alright to finish second.
Race 5 (Delta Outlaw, George Weaver-Irad Ortiz, 1:10.0)
Delta Outlaw may have been the one who broke his maiden here, but give credit to first-timer Park Ranger. He was bet down to favortism at 9/5, made a move up the inside off the fast pace, but couldn't last. Nevertheless, he was well-bet, the race was run in a very fast time, and the pedigree suggests he wants to go long. If he's in at a route next time out, watch for him.
Delta Outlaw, of course, won this one by three lengths in that easy time of 1:10.0, after overtaking front-running One Lucky Step. Both of them ran big, and have to be considered next time.
Race 6 (Ride Ride Ride, John Tammaro-Abel Castellano, 1:44.1)
It was a very easy victory for Ride Ride Ride, but lost in the shuffle of all of that was Cheddar Chub. He was more than 12 lengths back at one point, before making a decent closing rally to get up and score second. Ride Ride Ride, meanwhile, sat a terrific trip. He was off the two leaders, then rolled by them once they folded.
Race 7 (Picozza, Todd Pletcher-Paco Lopez, 1:41.3)
Picozza was off for more than nine months going into this race, but it hardly mattered. Gourmet Delight pounced on the leaders going around the far turn and looked like a clear winner, but Picozza exploded from the back of the pack and won it going away. This horse, if he stays healthy, might wind up being a good one. We'll see.
Race 8 (Bustin Out, Chuck Spina-Jose Ferrer, 1:10.3)
This race featured a star in the making. Bustin Out won this one by only six lengths, but the way she was moving on the far turn, it could've been at least twice that. Jose Ferrer geared her down in the stretch once she opened up a nine-length lead, and cut down on what could've been a much faster time. So far, she's been impressive in her two career wins. We'll see what the future holds for her.
Race 9 (Casual Smile, Chad Brown-Irad Ortiz, 1:43.2)
The Chad Brown on grass angle is usually dangerous. In Monmouth allowance company, it's money. She swooped on the outside to roll past the field and score easily. My Jolie, making her first start in a year, rallied admirably down the stretch to score second. She might be one to watch next time out.
Race 10 (Bradester, Eddie Kenneally-Corey Lanerie, 1:35.1)
I mistakenly thought that this was a two-horse affair: Race Day, who was bet down to 4/5, and Red Vine, who went off at 5/2. Neither one of them pulled off a victory, however. Rather, Bradester dueled with Fabulous Kid going down the backstretch, then brushed him off and drew away easily. Red Vine made up some ground to get second, while Race Day finished a disappointing sixth. That was his first start in three months, however, so I will give him a chance to improve next time out.
Race 11 (Big Blue Kitten, Chad Brown-Joe Bravo, 2:11.4)
This year's United Nations inspired shades of Shake the Bank in 2005 or Presious Passion in 2009. The 129/1 Shining Copper, in the race to serve as a rabbit for Big Blue Kitten, sprinted to a long early lead, and led the way entering the stretch for the final time. Would he be able to pull of a shocker? No. His stablemate, Big Blue Kitten, rallied from the back of the pack to win his second United Nations, and give Monmouth veteran Joe Bravo his first winner in this race.
Favored Main Sequence, meanwhile, was a flat seventh at 8/5. This was his first start since coming back from Dubai; we'll see in his next race if he'll return to form, or if he's spent.
Race 12 (We B Jammin, Greg Sacco-Paco Lopez, 1:11.4)
We B Jammin and Brother Chub were on the pace together, just like last time. While We B Jammin drew off to win by four, Brother Chub ran a much-improved race to finish third. He might be an improving horse, too.
Monmouth Racing Recap: 7/4/15
Cloudy skies greeted the crowd at Monmouth on Independence Day, which unfortunately numbered fewer than 8,000. Maybe the threat of rain scared people away, or maybe it was all the chalk dust. Regardless, here's what happened:
Race 1 (Mi Amore, Greg Sacco-Joe Bravo, 1:39.4)
Eight Cents established a clear lead going down the backstretch, but because he never actually wins races, it was little surprise that he tired. Mi Amore sat a great trip rating off that pace, and battled past Eight Cents to win it. Unfortunately, he was bet down to 6/5 late, after being around 2/1 for most of the betting. No surprises there...
Race 2 (Clowney, Keith Dickey-Tommy Turner, 1:12.1)
Zeal Genius was hustled to a loose early lead, and he looked to be home going around the turn. However, Clowney kept grinding down the stretch, and wound up drawing away by two. He, too, was bet down to the unbettable price of 6/5 very late in the betting. Who says that there is justice in the world?
Race 3 (Paddington Express, John Pimental-Daniel Centeno, 1:46.0)
I had been chasing Paddington Express all year, without success, so it figures that he would win a race in which I totally disregarded him. Here, Stitcher set a clear early lead, only to be challenged by Paddington Express coming around the turn. It wasn't easy, but Paddington Express wound up grinding by to score at 10/1.
Race 4 (Siena Indian, Gerald Bennett-Sammy Camacho, 1:11.3)
This race was over the moment it began, as Siena Indian shot to the early lead and never looked back. Hereosaurus Rex, meanwhile, held off the rest of the field to be second the whole way, while Tio Kanki was third throughout the stretch run. That's the definition of a merry-go-round right there, folks.
Race 5 (Billyscrystalball, Mike Mullin-Abel Castellano, 1:04.2)
Double the Energy was the best in this field. She was hung wide off a fast pace almost the whole way, and looked dangerous when she made a three-wide move to the lead. Billyscrystalball, meanwhile, was stuck in traffic going around the turn, shot through when clear, and won it.
Race 6 (Chilton, Michelle Nevin-Paco Lopez, 1:11.4)
I expressed doubt over Chilton's placement into this cheap claiming race, but he ran a big one instead. He dueled with Street Brawl on the outside, then put that rival away and won by 3 1/2 lengths. My pick, Pro Prospect, had a great trip off that duel, but faded badly and wound up last.
Race 7 (To Your Health, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:43.0)
To my surprise, To Your Health wound up favored in here. He made a big rally late to catch early leader Steel Sky, proving the public right. Deep Consideration wound up fourth, proving that he will probably never win a race in his life. My pick, Bridge of Luck, never did anything and wound up third.
Race 8 (Carajillo, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:44.2)
Word ran a good race in his first career start, receiving some pressure from heavy favorite Carajillo. The latter one wound up drawing away fairly easily, but Word still finished four lengths in front of the rest of the field. We'll see how he does next out, when he's not facing a rival as dominant as Carajillo.
Race 9 (Curve of Stones, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:43.4)
In his last race, Curve of Stones was wide the entire way around. Here, he got a ground-saving trip, engaging in a slow-paced duel with Diana's Vendetta. He shook that rival off and won by a length. Just goes to show you the effect ground-saving has on race outcomes.
Race 10 (Love Came to Town, Kevin Sleeter-Elvis Trujillo, 1:11.1)
Love Came to Town looked much the best on paper, and ran like it. She rated three-wide, swooped the field around the turn, and drew off to an emphatic five-length score. She's Hot Wired and World Gone Wright battled with each other for second place, with the former prevailing by a neck.
Race 11 (Kharafa, Tim Hills-Paco Lopez, 1:34.1)
How much the best was Kharafa? Going around the final turn, he was absolutely buried in traffic, looking hopeless. He found a path around that turn and moved up closer to the lead, only to get stopped once again. At long last, he split rivals, and got up to win it. He won by a neck over Lochte--who made a bold five-wide move himself to score second--but he could've won by more with a cleaner path.
Race 12 (Be Smitten, Claudio Gonzalez-Wilmer Garcia, 1:45.0)
Be Smitten got the lead, got clear enough so no one could catch her, and won by sixteen lengths. That's what happens in these kind of races.
Race 1 (Mi Amore, Greg Sacco-Joe Bravo, 1:39.4)
Eight Cents established a clear lead going down the backstretch, but because he never actually wins races, it was little surprise that he tired. Mi Amore sat a great trip rating off that pace, and battled past Eight Cents to win it. Unfortunately, he was bet down to 6/5 late, after being around 2/1 for most of the betting. No surprises there...
Race 2 (Clowney, Keith Dickey-Tommy Turner, 1:12.1)
Zeal Genius was hustled to a loose early lead, and he looked to be home going around the turn. However, Clowney kept grinding down the stretch, and wound up drawing away by two. He, too, was bet down to the unbettable price of 6/5 very late in the betting. Who says that there is justice in the world?
Race 3 (Paddington Express, John Pimental-Daniel Centeno, 1:46.0)
I had been chasing Paddington Express all year, without success, so it figures that he would win a race in which I totally disregarded him. Here, Stitcher set a clear early lead, only to be challenged by Paddington Express coming around the turn. It wasn't easy, but Paddington Express wound up grinding by to score at 10/1.
Race 4 (Siena Indian, Gerald Bennett-Sammy Camacho, 1:11.3)
This race was over the moment it began, as Siena Indian shot to the early lead and never looked back. Hereosaurus Rex, meanwhile, held off the rest of the field to be second the whole way, while Tio Kanki was third throughout the stretch run. That's the definition of a merry-go-round right there, folks.
Race 5 (Billyscrystalball, Mike Mullin-Abel Castellano, 1:04.2)
Double the Energy was the best in this field. She was hung wide off a fast pace almost the whole way, and looked dangerous when she made a three-wide move to the lead. Billyscrystalball, meanwhile, was stuck in traffic going around the turn, shot through when clear, and won it.
Race 6 (Chilton, Michelle Nevin-Paco Lopez, 1:11.4)
I expressed doubt over Chilton's placement into this cheap claiming race, but he ran a big one instead. He dueled with Street Brawl on the outside, then put that rival away and won by 3 1/2 lengths. My pick, Pro Prospect, had a great trip off that duel, but faded badly and wound up last.
Race 7 (To Your Health, Wayne Catalano-Paco Lopez, 1:43.0)
To my surprise, To Your Health wound up favored in here. He made a big rally late to catch early leader Steel Sky, proving the public right. Deep Consideration wound up fourth, proving that he will probably never win a race in his life. My pick, Bridge of Luck, never did anything and wound up third.
Race 8 (Carajillo, Todd Pletcher-Abel Castellano, 1:44.2)
Word ran a good race in his first career start, receiving some pressure from heavy favorite Carajillo. The latter one wound up drawing away fairly easily, but Word still finished four lengths in front of the rest of the field. We'll see how he does next out, when he's not facing a rival as dominant as Carajillo.
Race 9 (Curve of Stones, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:43.4)
In his last race, Curve of Stones was wide the entire way around. Here, he got a ground-saving trip, engaging in a slow-paced duel with Diana's Vendetta. He shook that rival off and won by a length. Just goes to show you the effect ground-saving has on race outcomes.
Race 10 (Love Came to Town, Kevin Sleeter-Elvis Trujillo, 1:11.1)
Love Came to Town looked much the best on paper, and ran like it. She rated three-wide, swooped the field around the turn, and drew off to an emphatic five-length score. She's Hot Wired and World Gone Wright battled with each other for second place, with the former prevailing by a neck.
Race 11 (Kharafa, Tim Hills-Paco Lopez, 1:34.1)
How much the best was Kharafa? Going around the final turn, he was absolutely buried in traffic, looking hopeless. He found a path around that turn and moved up closer to the lead, only to get stopped once again. At long last, he split rivals, and got up to win it. He won by a neck over Lochte--who made a bold five-wide move himself to score second--but he could've won by more with a cleaner path.
Race 12 (Be Smitten, Claudio Gonzalez-Wilmer Garcia, 1:45.0)
Be Smitten got the lead, got clear enough so no one could catch her, and won by sixteen lengths. That's what happens in these kind of races.
Saturday, July 4, 2015
July 5, 2015: Picks and Analysis
Well, it's the second-biggest day of the season. The day of the $500,000, grade 1, United Nations Stakes. A terrific field of nine has lined up here, and I'll go into the race more in-depth later on. In the meantime, we'll have some great racing on the undercard, including the $150,000, grade 3, Salvator Mile. Let's begin!
And, for anyone who can't be at Monmouth Sunday (and if you can be there, go!), the stakes races will be on Fox Sports 1, from 5:00-6:00 PM EDT.
Weather Forecast: 84*F, Mostly Sunny
You couldn't ask for a nicer day Sunday at Monmouth. I approve!
Race 1: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
There's a ton of one-dimensional speed on the inside, which means it sets up perfectly for a horse coming off the pace. The 6, Just Sisters, fits that profile well. She's shipping in from Delaware Park, where she won her maiden by five easy lengths on June 9. Since then, she's turned in two bullet workouts to prepare for this spot. Her brisnet figure of 83 last out is the best last-out figure in the field. Trainer Jamie Ness is, of course, dangerous here at Monmouth. And, as I alluded to, the three horses on the inside are all very fast at the start, but tend to tire out late. With Just Sisters's running style, she can rate off the leaders, and blow by if there's a pace meltdown. She's my choice to begin the program on a winning note.
If any of the front-runners are going to hold up on the lead, the most likely to do so is the 1, Fiesta Rose. She withstood plenty of pace pressure in her starts at Tampa this winter, before fading in her last two starts on the lead here at Monmouth. If the dirt is playing toward speed Sunday, she may re-find her stride.
6- Just Sisters (3/1)
1- Fiesta Rose (9/2)
7- Four Inch Heels (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Nobody in the field with dirt form looks especially promising here. The horse with the most ability on dirt is the 6, Panama Hat, who made a big rally from the back of the pack last out that this level to miss by just 1/2 a length. However, who knows if he can duplicate that race here?
Because no one else really inspires me in this race, I'll go with a horse making the switch from grass: the 9, Rickashea. In his two dirt starts, he failed to hit the board, but he did run a figure of 78 in one of those races. That's certainly promising. In addition, trainer Jason Servis hits at a whopping 28% with horses making the switch from grass to dirt. When you couple that with a not-so-great field, and a horse with some mild dirt ability in the past, it makes for a good betting opportunity.
9- Rickashea (2/1)
6- Panama Hat (6/1)
2- Ettelson (10/1)
Race 3: Claiming $35,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
My pick in here is the 5, The Comish. In his last grass race, at Gulfstream, he won it gate-to-wire, while earning a figure of 84. No one else has done that kind of figure while sprinting on the grass. He was extremely dull in his last race, where he lost by 32 lengths sprinting on the dirt, but I think he'll improve with a switch in surface. That improvement should guide him to victory.
The 7, D'Tumbling Dice has a ton of early speed, and it may be more effective at a sprint, as opposed to a route. The 6, Very Colorful, has steadily improving figures, but has never crossed the wire first, with his lone win coming via DQ. He's more of a candidate for the exotic positions.
5- The Comish (7/2)
7- D'Tumbling Dice (3/1)
6- Very Colorful (6/1)
Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
The 4, Saturday Special, is my pick to win this solid race of older claimers. In his last start, he swooped the field to win by four easy lengths, earning a figure of 92. That's among the best numbers in the bunch. Moreover, this race has a lot of speed horses who tend to wilt as the race goes on. Not only does Saturday Special not wilt, having won three straight route races, but this race figures to set up similarly to his last out win. That makes him the most probable winner.
The 2, Cherokee Colors, won his last start at a similar level very easily. If Saturday Special declines, he's going to be tough. The 3, Ease on Bai, has shown terrific late speed in his last two, and will be dangerous if the pace melts down.
4- Saturday Special (5/2)
2- Cherokee Colors (4/1)
3- Ease on Bai (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If the 8, Delta Outlaw, was not so wide in his last race, he likely would have won. Alas, being four-wide down the backstretch, and three-wide on the turn, rarely does a horse any favors. Nevertheless, he finished second, beaten only two lengths, and was two more lengths clear of the third-place horse. He earned a figure in that race of 86, topped only by chronic maiden Have a Good Laugh, the 6. Even though there is the danger that Delta Outlaw will once again be hung wide, the edge that he possesses over the rest of the field means that it may not matter anyway.
8- Delta Outlaw (3/1)
6- Have a Good Laugh (9/2)
2- One Lucky Step (5/1)
Race 6: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 1 Mile 70 Yards
A wide-open field of twelve Jersey-breds go to post here, and not many of them have shown much ability. One exception is the 10, Tribal Honor. His last two figures are among the best in the race, at an 81 and an 80. Furthermore, he's the only horse in the race who has both early speed, and good late speed. It's likely he'll be on or near the pace, and once the rest of the field folds, he'll be able to draw off to victory. That's how I'll be betting anyway.
The 2, No More Music, was decent in routes earlier in the year, and finally broke through in a sprint last out. He may continue his improvement here.
10- Tribal Honor (7/2)
2- No More Music (6/1)
4- Streakin Easy (8/1)
Race 7: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Even though he's only made one career start on the grass, the 8, Money Changer, was impressive enough in that race for me to pick him on top. In that race, at Belmont, he closed from 13 lengths out of it, to miss by 5 1/2 lengths. That race was at six furlongs, so he should enjoy the stretch-out to 1 1/16 miles. John Velazquez, in town for the stakes races, keeps the mount, while trainer Todd Pletcher is always dangerous shipping in to Monmouth.
I expect Money Changer to be the favorite here, so if you're looking for more value, I'd pick the 3, Gourmet Delight. Last out, he was extremely wide the whole way around, but still managed to come in second, behind the talented Boot Scootn Daddy. He earned a figure of 84 in that spot, one of the best in the field. With a more ground-saving trip, he'll be dangerous. The 7, Picozza, showed promising form last year, but hasn't run since September. We'll see how he does first off the long layoff.
8- Money Changer (7/2)
3- Gourmet Delight (6/1)
7- Picozza (3/1)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
There is no way that the 1, Bustin Out, can possibly lose this race. Her figures are tons the best, earning an 89 and a 91 in her last two races. The second and third-place finishers in her maiden win, Fakery and Pop Start, both came back to win their next races. She has the best early and late speed in the field, so she can just run them off their feet. She'll crush this field, and hopefully bigger and better things are next.
Because Bustin Out is 6/5 on the morning line, and will likely be way, way, lower in real life, the value here is singling Bustin Out in multi-race bets, and using her on top of exactas and trifectas. The two horses likely to round out those spots are the 3, Let's Parlay, who hasn't run since August, but was showing good form in those races. She may need a race. The 11, Read All About It, was well-beaten at this level last out, but may find the going in here easier. Outside of Bustin Out, she appears best.
1- Bustin Out (6/5)
11- Read All About It (6/1)
3- Let's Parlay (7/2)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll begin the late pick 4 with the 4, Casual Smile. In her last race here at Monmouth, she broke her maiden by an easy length, earning a figure of 84. Since that race, she's been turning in good four furlong drills, so you know that she's still in good shape. Her best virtue, however, is being trained by Chad Brown. He's a ridiculous 3-7 at Monmouth this year, and is constantly winning with grass horses. While a few others in the field have run similar figures, no one else is trained by this grass maestro, and that gives her the edge that she needs.
The 2, Empress Maker, is shipping in from Belmont, where she recently ran a figure of 87. However, trainer Graham Motion has been less-than-impressive with his Monmouth horses, going 0-11. She's still a must-use in multi-race bets, but I wouldn't bet her to win, necessarily. The 7, Red Letter, looked clear in her last race, building up a big lead in the stretch before being run down. With a better-timed move here, she'll have a better chance.
4- Casual Smile (5/2)
2- Empress Maker (3/1)
7- Red Letter (10/1)
Race 10: Salvator Mile, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
This race runs through two horses: the 6, Red Vine, and the 8, Race Day. Red Vine is 3-3 lifetime on dirt, never earning a figure lower than 103. His most recent win was an easy score in the Majestic Light Stakes here at Monmouth, earning a figure of 107. Race Day won the Oaklawn Handicap in his last race, with a figure of 106. He missed the Stephen Foster due to injury, but has since recovered, and looks dangerous in here. What to do, what to do?
Well, the key to the race lies in the pace setup. Race Day is a confirmed front-runner, and there's a lot of speed in here. To his inside, Bradester and Valid both have a ton of early speed, and Race Day may get hung wide trying to contest the lead. Red Vine, meanwhile, tends to rate off the pace, and has to be salivating off a pace situation like that. Coupled with his late pace numbers, I project Red Vine to sit off the pace, then roll by the pace-setters and win it.
6- Red Vine (3/1)
8- Race Day (5/2)
5- Valid (5/1)
Race 11: United Nations, 3yo and up, 1 3/8 Miles (Grass)
This is the big one! One of two grade 1 races that Monmouth offers per year, this race features the return of superstar grass horse Main Sequence. Coming off a disappointing seventh in the Dubai Sheema Classic, he had won five consecutive graded stakes races before that one, including the Breeders' Cup Turf. He also won this race last year to begin his streak.
Now, the only thing that keeps him from being a true "shore" thing is the fact that he hasn't raced for nearly three months, and his rivals have more recent good form. However, none of the others, in my estimation, have as much raw ability as Main Sequence. Twilight Eclipse won the Man O'War two starts back, but was a dull seventh in the Manhattan. Slumber won that Manhattan, but his form hasn't been great since. Imagining won the Pan American, but disappointed in the Man O'War. Ashleyluvssugar was a grass star out in California, but the competition there was weaker than here.
While I wouldn't bet Main Sequence at a super-low price, he's the most likely winner, and my rooting interests will rest with him.
6- Main Sequence (5/2)
7- Imagining (6/1)
1- Twilight Eclipse (9/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I'll close the show with the 4, We B Jammin. Last out, he was engaged in a duel, yet hung on OK to finish second. The horse he was dueling with wound up losing by eighteen lengths. If he can manage a clear lead here, he'll be very tough to catch.
4- We B Jammin (9/5)
3- Don's Marsh (7/2)
7- Play it Again (15/1)
The first race is 12:50 PM EDT. It's one of the best cards all season, so be "shore" to check it out!
And, for anyone who can't be at Monmouth Sunday (and if you can be there, go!), the stakes races will be on Fox Sports 1, from 5:00-6:00 PM EDT.
Weather Forecast: 84*F, Mostly Sunny
You couldn't ask for a nicer day Sunday at Monmouth. I approve!
Race 1: Claiming $40,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
There's a ton of one-dimensional speed on the inside, which means it sets up perfectly for a horse coming off the pace. The 6, Just Sisters, fits that profile well. She's shipping in from Delaware Park, where she won her maiden by five easy lengths on June 9. Since then, she's turned in two bullet workouts to prepare for this spot. Her brisnet figure of 83 last out is the best last-out figure in the field. Trainer Jamie Ness is, of course, dangerous here at Monmouth. And, as I alluded to, the three horses on the inside are all very fast at the start, but tend to tire out late. With Just Sisters's running style, she can rate off the leaders, and blow by if there's a pace meltdown. She's my choice to begin the program on a winning note.
If any of the front-runners are going to hold up on the lead, the most likely to do so is the 1, Fiesta Rose. She withstood plenty of pace pressure in her starts at Tampa this winter, before fading in her last two starts on the lead here at Monmouth. If the dirt is playing toward speed Sunday, she may re-find her stride.
6- Just Sisters (3/1)
1- Fiesta Rose (9/2)
7- Four Inch Heels (5/2)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
Nobody in the field with dirt form looks especially promising here. The horse with the most ability on dirt is the 6, Panama Hat, who made a big rally from the back of the pack last out that this level to miss by just 1/2 a length. However, who knows if he can duplicate that race here?
Because no one else really inspires me in this race, I'll go with a horse making the switch from grass: the 9, Rickashea. In his two dirt starts, he failed to hit the board, but he did run a figure of 78 in one of those races. That's certainly promising. In addition, trainer Jason Servis hits at a whopping 28% with horses making the switch from grass to dirt. When you couple that with a not-so-great field, and a horse with some mild dirt ability in the past, it makes for a good betting opportunity.
9- Rickashea (2/1)
6- Panama Hat (6/1)
2- Ettelson (10/1)
Race 3: Claiming $35,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Grass)
My pick in here is the 5, The Comish. In his last grass race, at Gulfstream, he won it gate-to-wire, while earning a figure of 84. No one else has done that kind of figure while sprinting on the grass. He was extremely dull in his last race, where he lost by 32 lengths sprinting on the dirt, but I think he'll improve with a switch in surface. That improvement should guide him to victory.
The 7, D'Tumbling Dice has a ton of early speed, and it may be more effective at a sprint, as opposed to a route. The 6, Very Colorful, has steadily improving figures, but has never crossed the wire first, with his lone win coming via DQ. He's more of a candidate for the exotic positions.
5- The Comish (7/2)
7- D'Tumbling Dice (3/1)
6- Very Colorful (6/1)
Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
The 4, Saturday Special, is my pick to win this solid race of older claimers. In his last start, he swooped the field to win by four easy lengths, earning a figure of 92. That's among the best numbers in the bunch. Moreover, this race has a lot of speed horses who tend to wilt as the race goes on. Not only does Saturday Special not wilt, having won three straight route races, but this race figures to set up similarly to his last out win. That makes him the most probable winner.
The 2, Cherokee Colors, won his last start at a similar level very easily. If Saturday Special declines, he's going to be tough. The 3, Ease on Bai, has shown terrific late speed in his last two, and will be dangerous if the pace melts down.
4- Saturday Special (5/2)
2- Cherokee Colors (4/1)
3- Ease on Bai (6/1)
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
If the 8, Delta Outlaw, was not so wide in his last race, he likely would have won. Alas, being four-wide down the backstretch, and three-wide on the turn, rarely does a horse any favors. Nevertheless, he finished second, beaten only two lengths, and was two more lengths clear of the third-place horse. He earned a figure in that race of 86, topped only by chronic maiden Have a Good Laugh, the 6. Even though there is the danger that Delta Outlaw will once again be hung wide, the edge that he possesses over the rest of the field means that it may not matter anyway.
8- Delta Outlaw (3/1)
6- Have a Good Laugh (9/2)
2- One Lucky Step (5/1)
Race 6: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 1 Mile 70 Yards
A wide-open field of twelve Jersey-breds go to post here, and not many of them have shown much ability. One exception is the 10, Tribal Honor. His last two figures are among the best in the race, at an 81 and an 80. Furthermore, he's the only horse in the race who has both early speed, and good late speed. It's likely he'll be on or near the pace, and once the rest of the field folds, he'll be able to draw off to victory. That's how I'll be betting anyway.
The 2, No More Music, was decent in routes earlier in the year, and finally broke through in a sprint last out. He may continue his improvement here.
10- Tribal Honor (7/2)
2- No More Music (6/1)
4- Streakin Easy (8/1)
Race 7: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Even though he's only made one career start on the grass, the 8, Money Changer, was impressive enough in that race for me to pick him on top. In that race, at Belmont, he closed from 13 lengths out of it, to miss by 5 1/2 lengths. That race was at six furlongs, so he should enjoy the stretch-out to 1 1/16 miles. John Velazquez, in town for the stakes races, keeps the mount, while trainer Todd Pletcher is always dangerous shipping in to Monmouth.
I expect Money Changer to be the favorite here, so if you're looking for more value, I'd pick the 3, Gourmet Delight. Last out, he was extremely wide the whole way around, but still managed to come in second, behind the talented Boot Scootn Daddy. He earned a figure of 84 in that spot, one of the best in the field. With a more ground-saving trip, he'll be dangerous. The 7, Picozza, showed promising form last year, but hasn't run since September. We'll see how he does first off the long layoff.
8- Money Changer (7/2)
3- Gourmet Delight (6/1)
7- Picozza (3/1)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
There is no way that the 1, Bustin Out, can possibly lose this race. Her figures are tons the best, earning an 89 and a 91 in her last two races. The second and third-place finishers in her maiden win, Fakery and Pop Start, both came back to win their next races. She has the best early and late speed in the field, so she can just run them off their feet. She'll crush this field, and hopefully bigger and better things are next.
Because Bustin Out is 6/5 on the morning line, and will likely be way, way, lower in real life, the value here is singling Bustin Out in multi-race bets, and using her on top of exactas and trifectas. The two horses likely to round out those spots are the 3, Let's Parlay, who hasn't run since August, but was showing good form in those races. She may need a race. The 11, Read All About It, was well-beaten at this level last out, but may find the going in here easier. Outside of Bustin Out, she appears best.
1- Bustin Out (6/5)
11- Read All About It (6/1)
3- Let's Parlay (7/2)
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
I'll begin the late pick 4 with the 4, Casual Smile. In her last race here at Monmouth, she broke her maiden by an easy length, earning a figure of 84. Since that race, she's been turning in good four furlong drills, so you know that she's still in good shape. Her best virtue, however, is being trained by Chad Brown. He's a ridiculous 3-7 at Monmouth this year, and is constantly winning with grass horses. While a few others in the field have run similar figures, no one else is trained by this grass maestro, and that gives her the edge that she needs.
The 2, Empress Maker, is shipping in from Belmont, where she recently ran a figure of 87. However, trainer Graham Motion has been less-than-impressive with his Monmouth horses, going 0-11. She's still a must-use in multi-race bets, but I wouldn't bet her to win, necessarily. The 7, Red Letter, looked clear in her last race, building up a big lead in the stretch before being run down. With a better-timed move here, she'll have a better chance.
4- Casual Smile (5/2)
2- Empress Maker (3/1)
7- Red Letter (10/1)
Race 10: Salvator Mile, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
This race runs through two horses: the 6, Red Vine, and the 8, Race Day. Red Vine is 3-3 lifetime on dirt, never earning a figure lower than 103. His most recent win was an easy score in the Majestic Light Stakes here at Monmouth, earning a figure of 107. Race Day won the Oaklawn Handicap in his last race, with a figure of 106. He missed the Stephen Foster due to injury, but has since recovered, and looks dangerous in here. What to do, what to do?
Well, the key to the race lies in the pace setup. Race Day is a confirmed front-runner, and there's a lot of speed in here. To his inside, Bradester and Valid both have a ton of early speed, and Race Day may get hung wide trying to contest the lead. Red Vine, meanwhile, tends to rate off the pace, and has to be salivating off a pace situation like that. Coupled with his late pace numbers, I project Red Vine to sit off the pace, then roll by the pace-setters and win it.
6- Red Vine (3/1)
8- Race Day (5/2)
5- Valid (5/1)
Race 11: United Nations, 3yo and up, 1 3/8 Miles (Grass)
This is the big one! One of two grade 1 races that Monmouth offers per year, this race features the return of superstar grass horse Main Sequence. Coming off a disappointing seventh in the Dubai Sheema Classic, he had won five consecutive graded stakes races before that one, including the Breeders' Cup Turf. He also won this race last year to begin his streak.
Now, the only thing that keeps him from being a true "shore" thing is the fact that he hasn't raced for nearly three months, and his rivals have more recent good form. However, none of the others, in my estimation, have as much raw ability as Main Sequence. Twilight Eclipse won the Man O'War two starts back, but was a dull seventh in the Manhattan. Slumber won that Manhattan, but his form hasn't been great since. Imagining won the Pan American, but disappointed in the Man O'War. Ashleyluvssugar was a grass star out in California, but the competition there was weaker than here.
While I wouldn't bet Main Sequence at a super-low price, he's the most likely winner, and my rooting interests will rest with him.
6- Main Sequence (5/2)
7- Imagining (6/1)
1- Twilight Eclipse (9/2)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 3yo and up, NJ-bred, 6 Furlongs
I'll close the show with the 4, We B Jammin. Last out, he was engaged in a duel, yet hung on OK to finish second. The horse he was dueling with wound up losing by eighteen lengths. If he can manage a clear lead here, he'll be very tough to catch.
4- We B Jammin (9/5)
3- Don's Marsh (7/2)
7- Play it Again (15/1)
The first race is 12:50 PM EDT. It's one of the best cards all season, so be "shore" to check it out!
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