It's Preakness Day at Pimlico, but that doesn't mean that the party stops at Monmouth. We got 12 races on the Saturday program, highlighted by the $100,000 Red Bank Stakes. Let's get started on the card.
Weather Forecast: 81*F, Thunderstorms
Note that, because of the threat of rain Saturday, I'll be making picks for dirt as well for the grass races. I expect that the Red Bank will stay on regardless, but we will see.
Race 1: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
Don't let the small field fool you--despite the fact that there's only six horses, it's a wide-open race on paper. I will go with the 4, Rocket Man Richie, to begin the card. He won his maiden outing in gate-to-wire fashion at Gulfstream Park, and held on well in his last two starts as well. With the track tilting toward speed as of late, there's a chance that he'll be able to withstand a potential duel and get the job done.
Should the pace melt down (which is possible, with Little Tom and Gris Hombre also speedsters), the 5, Alpha Dude, could take advantage, with his stalking style. The 2, Pelekas Beach, has great brisnet figures--including a field-best 84 last out--but I'm wary of him dropping from allowance conditions all the way down to n/w2x claiming. Buyer beware.
4- Rocket Man Richie (2/1)
2- Pelekas Beach (5/2)
5- Alpha Dude (5/2)
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-Bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
When the morning line favorite in a race is a coupled entry consisting of a first-time starter and a horse who hasn't run since September, you know it's not the strongest of fields. Regardless, it's still here, and a race where I think I can find a solid winner.
That horse is the 5, Our Hazel. Her figure of 67 is the second-best last-out figure in the bunch, and has recent good form at Parx. Of course, it's hard to be excited about a five-year-old maiden in any circumstances, but nobody else has run recently, if at all, so I'll take the fresher horse in this spot.
Should the 6, Easy Landing, return to her good form at Monmouth and Parx last year, she'll be dangerous, too. In her last start, at Parx back in October, she ran a figure of 74, which would win this race fairly easily. The 4, Channel Surfing, ran a much-improved number in her last race back in August, and is sporting some good works coming into this race.
5- Our Hazel (4/1)
6- Easy Landing (9/2)
4- Channel Surfing (9/2)
Race 3: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This race marks my first strong opinion of the day, and it comes with the 5, Boss's Rules. Her last two figures, of 82 and 87, tower over anyone else in the field. Furthermore, she had shown a tendency to tire and drift out while going longer distances at Parx, and she may find six furlongs more to her liking. It would "shore" help out her chances if she managed to keep a straight path here.
Also worthy of note in here is the 2, Solitary, who will become the first horse to race twice at the Monmouth Park season, after she was defeated by a pole last Saturday. I don't expect much better out of her here.
5- Boss's Rules (5/2)
1- Midnightinpositano (7/2)
4- Flashy Brass (3/1)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile and 70 Yards
There's another standout at (hopefully) a good price in this spot. The 7, Idontknowgoaskanni, ships up from Tampa for this race, and despite her string of seconds, she appears to be the one to beat by far. She's what's known as a "triple fig" in speed handicapping lingo; that is, all three of her last races are better than anyone else's last three. Her last three brisnet figures are an 80, a 78, and a 74. Nobody else has run better than a 72 in any of their last three. As long as Idontknowgoaskanni keeps up her form, she should win. A 5/2 morning line makes her appealing, but I doubt she'll be that high.
Should Idontknowgoaskanni regress (which would be a surprise), the most likely alternatives are the 9, Echale Salista, who has shown a lot of ability on grass and could transfer it to dirt, and the 6, Sandbag, who was consistently OK at Tampa over the winter. But don't bet on that happening; Idontknowgoaskanni looks much the best.
7- Idontknowgoaskanni (5/2)
9- Echale Salista (3/1)
6- Sandbag (6/1)
Race 5- Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
After two races with truly "shore things", we are back to a handicapping puzzle with the final leg of the early pick 5. Should the race stay on the grass, I will select the 8, Slander. In her last start, which was off a four-month layoff at Tampa, she turned in an impressive rally from the back of the pack, only to miss by a neck. Coming into this spot fresher, I expect a bigger effort out of her, and a bigger effort should translate to a victory.
The 2, Love That Kelly, is also one to consider, as she's coming off two great races at Pimlico this spring, along with the 10, Precious Paula, who was solid over the winter at Tampa.
If the race gets washed off the grass, I'll take the 4, Mystical Rain (how appropriate), as she's the only one in here with established dirt form. She also sports a lifetime best of 77 over an wet track, which would probably win this one if it was on the dirt.
Grass:
8- Slander (5/1)
2- Love That Kelly (3/1)
10- Precious Paula (8/1)
Dirt:
4- Mystical Rain
8- Slander
7- Ginny G
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
The David Jacobson-Andre Worrie combination was money last weekend, and they return with the likely winner of this race: the 4, North Ocean. Last time out at Aqueduct, he earned an impressive brisnet figure of 92 while winning gate-to-wire. He's run up to a 107 in the past, which would easily win this one, Jacobson's also hitting at 29% first off the claim, which only bolsters his case in this one.
Also of note are the 7, Gypsy Baron, who ran well last fall in Maryland, and hopes to rebound off a dismal 2015 debut, and the 5, School on a Hill, who hopes to stretch out his solid sprinting speed.
4- North Ocean (2/1)
7- Gypsy Baron (4/1)
5- School on a Hill (9/2)
Race 7: Claiming $20,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
It's a wide-open contest on both dirt and grass here, so it'll be interesting even if it gets washed away. On grass, my pick is the 2, Cut to Order, who was very easily two weeks ago at Tampa, drawing off to win by seven lengths. Also, Jamie Ness trains this one, and he hits at a 29% clip with shippers. Assuming he runs back to his last race, Cut to Order should win this one.
Cut to Order has shown ability over dirt before, but I'll be more inclined to take the 9, Paddington Express, should this one be run on the main track. He's won two out of his last three on the dirt, and has a set of steadily improving figures on that surface, cumulating with an 82 in his most recent effort. Both halves of the coupled entry--the 1, Rock Warrior, and the 1A, It's Charlie Again--are both better suited for dirt, and while neither one would be a likely favorite in a normal dirt contest, they'd be candidates in a watered-down off-the-grass event.
Grass:
2- Cut to Order (3/1)
6- Delta Golf Alpha (10/1)
3- Seeking Harmony (12/1)
Dirt:
9- Paddington Express
1- Rock Warrior/1A- It's Charlie Again
2- Cut to Order
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
Two horses jump out at me in this race: the 4, Love Comes to Town, and the 11, Pinkout. Both horses look great on paper, and are the only two who have a serious chance of winning this race, in my opinion. What concerns me about Pinkout, however, is that she broke her maiden in her last race, and in her eleventh try. Now, maybe she finally "learned how to win", so to speak, and will win this one anyway, but I wouldn't count on her winning two in a row after establishing herself as a professional maiden, at least until recently.
Meanwhile, the 4, Love Came to Town, has similar figures to Pinkout, but is more lightly raced (this will be only her fifth career start), and is making her third start of the layoff, a common indicator of an improved performance. Don't discount either one, however, and if you're playing the late pick 5, I would suggest using both in equal strength.
4- Love Came to Town (4/1)
11- Pinkout (5/1)
8- Read All About It (8/1)
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's another field with a lot of horses who are either first-time starters or coming off of long layoffs. As such, I will select one of the fillies in this field who has recent races: the 7, Thepartyneverends. In her last two dirt races, she earned brisnet figures of 86 and 84, which are the best in the field by a solid margin. Trainer Todd Pletcher, as one of the best in the country, always has to be respected, She also possesses a fair amount of early speed, so she could jump out early and take them gate-to-wire.
The 4, Rolling Wind, has similar speed, but hasn't raced since September. The 8, She's All Business, is a first-time starter, but has been working well in preparation for her debut.
7- Thepartyneverends (5/2)
8- She's All Business (4/1)
4- Rolling Wind (3/1)
Race 10: Red Bank Stakes, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
An underwhelming field of seven has been assembled for the first graded stakes of the Monmouth season, scheduled to go one mile on the grass. I'll select the 4, Rose Brier, to have the honor of being the first graded stakes winner of the year. He ran pretty well in his first start off a two-month layoff at Keeneland last time out, competing against a field similar to this one. He came in third, missing by only a neck, while running a brisnet figure of 98. That's the best last-out figure in the race, and he's also run up to a 100 in the past. He's the most likely winner here, as far as I'm concerned.
Also ones to watch here are the 6, Heart to Heart, who has lots of early speed, and the 5, Slim Shadey, who ran well at Belmont last out first off the layoff.
Also, why are both Red Vine and Edge of Reality listed as main-track-onlys? They'd certainly make the grass version of this race way more interesting.
Grass:
4- Rose Brier (3/1)
6- Heart to Heart (2/1)
5- Slim Shadey (6/1)
Dirt:
10- Red Vine
5- Slim Shadey
8- Adirondack King
Race 11: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
The late double begins here, and I'll take the 7, Pennymine. She has the best numbers in the field, with an 83 and an 87 in her last two races, plus the training of David Jacobson and the riding of Paco Lopez. In a field where nobody has strong credentials, she marks the best alternative in the bunch, and is my pick to win this one.
7- Pennymine (5/2)
5- Legal Laura (9/2)
1- Guchi Gold (8/1)
Race 12: Claiming $6,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I will close out my analysis of the card by talking about a horse that, on the surface, looks like a "shore thing", but has some flaws once one looks deeper. The 1, No More Strippers, appears to be much the best from a speed figure standpoint, running figures of 88, 82 and 84 in his last three. Clearly, this should make him much the best, right?
However, there are two flaws that prevent me from endorsing him more whole-heartedly. For one, his last workout over the Monmouth track was dismal: five furlongs in 1:07.0, which is plow-horse time. That was only a week ago, too, suggesting that workout may be indictive of his current form--i.e., bad. In addition, jockey Gabriel Saez has been having an ice-cold Monmouth meet, going 0-16. Now, by the time this one goes off, he may have snapped that streak, but I don't know if I'd bet on it. Buyer beware for anyone going with No More Strippers in here.
No one else in here really jumps out, so I will dispassionately select the 8, Artemus Paperboy, who ran some good races over the inner track at Aqueduct in the winter, and had a solid workout in preparation for this spot recently at Monmouth. The 6, Gintraker, is also one to watch, as he's got early speed and could make it effective cutting back from a route to a sprint.
8- Artemus Paperboy (3/1)
6- Gintraker (5/1)
1- No More Strippers (4/1)
Bonus Race: Preakness Stakes, 3yo, 1 3/16 Miles
The second jewel of the Triple Crown will be going off about five minutes after the finale at Monmouth, so stick around and check it out. My take is that American Pharaoh, the 1, is the most likely winner in here, off of three straight impressive races on the year. I'm not super-concerned about his inside draw, as I think he's adept enough to win from that hole anyway. Besides, the last horse to do it, Tabasco Cat in 1994, was probably on a talent level equal to American Pharaoh.
Now, if he was 7/5 or 3/2, he would be worth a win bet. But his morning line is 4/5, and I see the public betting him down to that level, or even 3/5 or 1/2. That would be, to put it mildly, completely insane, especially considering Firing Line, who almost beat him in the Kentucky Derby, will be a much better value.
Overall, I say AP is the most likely winner, but if he's odds-on, look elsewhere. If you want, you could play him on top of exactas and trifectas with the other horses coming from the Derby--who, in my mind, are the only ones with a shot.
1- American Pharaoh (4/5)
8- Firing Line (4/1)
4- Danzig Moon (15/1)
2- Dortmund (7/2)
The first race tomorrow at Monmouth is at 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck, everybody!
Friday, May 15, 2015
Monday, May 11, 2015
Monmouth Racing Recap: 5/10/15
More than 14,000 people came out on a Mother's Day blessed by tremendous weather, but also affected by a ridiculously speed-biased track.
Race 1 (Gallant Lady, Robert Donato-Jorge Robles, 1:13.0)
In the opener, four of the fillies went out for the early lead, but the one who got the rail--Gallant Lady, in this case--was the one who drew off to win by a ridiculously easy 10 lengths. Given the slow time and the large winning margin, I doubt much was behind her here.
Also, note the odds drop on her--she was 2/1 going into the gate, but crossed the wire at 6/5. I mean, I know a good chunk of the betting money comes in late, but still, that's unbelievable.
Race 2 (Roman Officer, Michael Dini-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.4)
It's a similar story to the first race in here--three horses were vying for the early lead, with Roman Officer being the one who was hustled to the early lead and drawing off, despite early fractions of :21.3 and :44.3. While the track showed speed-favoring tendencies Saturday, it was around this point in Sunday's card that bettors may have realized it had intensified today.
Race 3 (Twisted Kick, John Botty-Trevor McCarthy, 1:06.1)
Twisted Kick, while not being on the rail, was nonetheless on the lead, dueling on the two-path through a blazing opening quarter mile of :21.4. She dispatched her inside rival, Khloe's Quest, and drew off by three easy lengths. She was another one who was 2/1 for most of the early betting, only to go down to 6/5 late. Fun times.
On another note, a horse to watch out of here may be the 4, Bella Yolanda, who made a solid closing rally to score second in her career debut. Over a fair track next out, and closer to the pace, she'll be a factor.
Race 4 (Steve's Adventures, Finley Bishop-Navin Mangalee, 1:11.2)
Steve's Adventures, who hadn't raced in a year and a half, got into a duel with favored One For Don, and somehow drew off to win by four lengths like nothing was wrong. I'm still not sure if I would bet Steve's Adventures next out, but I'll be intrigued to see how aided he was by the track bias. For all we know, he could prove to be legit. But I wouldn't count on it.
Also: One For Don was very disappointing, as he should've been able to hold on if he had run back to his last few at Parx, as were both Jani's Wildcat and Donttellyourmother, both of whom stalked the pace and neither of whom had any kick late. The 8, I'mtrulyinthemood, made a solid rally to get up for second--with his continually ascending figures, he may be one to watch next time.
Race 5 (Fear Not, Michael Mullin-Ramon Moya, 1:42.0)
Once Luckystrikedelcoco, who was the only one in the field to have shown an iota of speed before, awkwardly stumbled leaving the gate, there was no pace in the race. Ramon Moya recognized the situation and hustled Fear Not to the lead, and it was all over from there as she got no pace pressure whatsoever.
I'll give Luckystrikedelcoco credit, however--she was able to rally four-wide and get up for a clear second, despite being taken out of her element with her start. If she can break cleanly next out, she should grab the lead, and be able to draw off for an easy score.
Race 6 (Freestyler, Bruce Alexander-Daniel Centeno, 1:38.2)
My selection, Vinceremos, was bet down a ludicrously low 4/5, despite the wide-open nature of the race. He stalked the pace in the two-path and wound up beaten sixteen lengths. Something tells me, even with the bias, that his time as a horse at this level may be up.
The winner here, Freestyler, rated off leader Bama Bound in the two-path, He took the lead late, only to look beaten when Marriage Fever came to his outside and began to roll. Freestyler, however, came back to get up by a nose. When one sees the very slow final quarter time (:26.3), one must wonder how much was Freestyler's gameness, and how much was Marriage Fever just folding.
Race 7 (Shesfromboston, Michael Mullin-Abel Castellano, 1:35.2)
That's two winners on the grass today for trainer Michael Mullin, as his Shesfromboston rated in the three-path, rallied wide, and got up for the victory. Noteworthy in defeat is the 10, The Real McCoy, who broke slowly, was well behind for most of the race, only to explode down the center of the track late and just miss by half a length. With a better start, she'll do big things next time out.
Race 8 (Easy to Say, Ben Perkins-Paco Lopez, 1:10.4)
The drop in class worked for heavily favored Easy to Say, who received some light pressure early on from Posse Dreamin--who later checked out of contention and finished last--and drew off to toy with the competition. Something tells me that he would have won this race regardless of whether or not the track was playing to speed, and he should have a nice future ahead of him.
Race 9 (Bay Dawn, Roberto Calvo-Inoel Beato, 1:42.2)
Kent's Baby Girl was allowed to set a very relaxed pace in this one, only to be taken over late by several, including the eventual winner, Bay Dawn, who rallied from last. One horse to consider out of this race is Good Catholic Girl, who had absolutely nowhere to go on the inside, finally found an opening late, only to be cut off from it. Not persevered with after checking in the stretch, she was likely best in here, and is probably worth a bet next time out. Bay Dawn and Glory Style, the top two, were in the top two only because Good Catholic Girl had to check, so remember that those efforts may not be as impressive as they look on paper.
Race 10 (Blings Express, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:11.1)
Blings Express sat the dream trip in this one, stalking the two speedsters setting a ridiculous (21:4, :44.2) pace, and drew off to score easily. He'll probably never get an easier trip in his life than that one.
Race 11 (Palm Island, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:10.1)
Another score for the increasingly dangerous Jacobson-Worrie combination, who have won three races in two days. In this race, Palm Island rated two-wide off the speed of favored Scatter Joy, and drew past her late to win it. Third-place finisher Songa made a mild rally late, but couldn't muster up the necessary ground.
Race 12 (Trouble With Girls, Dennis Ward-Paco Lopez, 1:13.0)
Trouble With Girls didn't get any pressure on the lead, and it showed. He set a :22.4 opening quarter, which compared to the rest of the races on the day's card, was glacial. A few horses in the field tried to rally, but nobody else did, so Trouble With Girls essentially won by default. Even at the n/w3L level next out, he'll be one I view with suspicion.
That wraps up Opening Week at Monmouth Park. Hope everybody out there made some money. I'll see you Friday for a breakdown of Saturday's card.
Race 1 (Gallant Lady, Robert Donato-Jorge Robles, 1:13.0)
In the opener, four of the fillies went out for the early lead, but the one who got the rail--Gallant Lady, in this case--was the one who drew off to win by a ridiculously easy 10 lengths. Given the slow time and the large winning margin, I doubt much was behind her here.
Also, note the odds drop on her--she was 2/1 going into the gate, but crossed the wire at 6/5. I mean, I know a good chunk of the betting money comes in late, but still, that's unbelievable.
Race 2 (Roman Officer, Michael Dini-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.4)
It's a similar story to the first race in here--three horses were vying for the early lead, with Roman Officer being the one who was hustled to the early lead and drawing off, despite early fractions of :21.3 and :44.3. While the track showed speed-favoring tendencies Saturday, it was around this point in Sunday's card that bettors may have realized it had intensified today.
Race 3 (Twisted Kick, John Botty-Trevor McCarthy, 1:06.1)
Twisted Kick, while not being on the rail, was nonetheless on the lead, dueling on the two-path through a blazing opening quarter mile of :21.4. She dispatched her inside rival, Khloe's Quest, and drew off by three easy lengths. She was another one who was 2/1 for most of the early betting, only to go down to 6/5 late. Fun times.
On another note, a horse to watch out of here may be the 4, Bella Yolanda, who made a solid closing rally to score second in her career debut. Over a fair track next out, and closer to the pace, she'll be a factor.
Race 4 (Steve's Adventures, Finley Bishop-Navin Mangalee, 1:11.2)
Steve's Adventures, who hadn't raced in a year and a half, got into a duel with favored One For Don, and somehow drew off to win by four lengths like nothing was wrong. I'm still not sure if I would bet Steve's Adventures next out, but I'll be intrigued to see how aided he was by the track bias. For all we know, he could prove to be legit. But I wouldn't count on it.
Also: One For Don was very disappointing, as he should've been able to hold on if he had run back to his last few at Parx, as were both Jani's Wildcat and Donttellyourmother, both of whom stalked the pace and neither of whom had any kick late. The 8, I'mtrulyinthemood, made a solid rally to get up for second--with his continually ascending figures, he may be one to watch next time.
Race 5 (Fear Not, Michael Mullin-Ramon Moya, 1:42.0)
Once Luckystrikedelcoco, who was the only one in the field to have shown an iota of speed before, awkwardly stumbled leaving the gate, there was no pace in the race. Ramon Moya recognized the situation and hustled Fear Not to the lead, and it was all over from there as she got no pace pressure whatsoever.
I'll give Luckystrikedelcoco credit, however--she was able to rally four-wide and get up for a clear second, despite being taken out of her element with her start. If she can break cleanly next out, she should grab the lead, and be able to draw off for an easy score.
Race 6 (Freestyler, Bruce Alexander-Daniel Centeno, 1:38.2)
My selection, Vinceremos, was bet down a ludicrously low 4/5, despite the wide-open nature of the race. He stalked the pace in the two-path and wound up beaten sixteen lengths. Something tells me, even with the bias, that his time as a horse at this level may be up.
The winner here, Freestyler, rated off leader Bama Bound in the two-path, He took the lead late, only to look beaten when Marriage Fever came to his outside and began to roll. Freestyler, however, came back to get up by a nose. When one sees the very slow final quarter time (:26.3), one must wonder how much was Freestyler's gameness, and how much was Marriage Fever just folding.
Race 7 (Shesfromboston, Michael Mullin-Abel Castellano, 1:35.2)
That's two winners on the grass today for trainer Michael Mullin, as his Shesfromboston rated in the three-path, rallied wide, and got up for the victory. Noteworthy in defeat is the 10, The Real McCoy, who broke slowly, was well behind for most of the race, only to explode down the center of the track late and just miss by half a length. With a better start, she'll do big things next time out.
Race 8 (Easy to Say, Ben Perkins-Paco Lopez, 1:10.4)
The drop in class worked for heavily favored Easy to Say, who received some light pressure early on from Posse Dreamin--who later checked out of contention and finished last--and drew off to toy with the competition. Something tells me that he would have won this race regardless of whether or not the track was playing to speed, and he should have a nice future ahead of him.
Race 9 (Bay Dawn, Roberto Calvo-Inoel Beato, 1:42.2)
Kent's Baby Girl was allowed to set a very relaxed pace in this one, only to be taken over late by several, including the eventual winner, Bay Dawn, who rallied from last. One horse to consider out of this race is Good Catholic Girl, who had absolutely nowhere to go on the inside, finally found an opening late, only to be cut off from it. Not persevered with after checking in the stretch, she was likely best in here, and is probably worth a bet next time out. Bay Dawn and Glory Style, the top two, were in the top two only because Good Catholic Girl had to check, so remember that those efforts may not be as impressive as they look on paper.
Race 10 (Blings Express, Marcus Vitali-Orlando Bocachica, 1:11.1)
Blings Express sat the dream trip in this one, stalking the two speedsters setting a ridiculous (21:4, :44.2) pace, and drew off to score easily. He'll probably never get an easier trip in his life than that one.
Race 11 (Palm Island, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:10.1)
Another score for the increasingly dangerous Jacobson-Worrie combination, who have won three races in two days. In this race, Palm Island rated two-wide off the speed of favored Scatter Joy, and drew past her late to win it. Third-place finisher Songa made a mild rally late, but couldn't muster up the necessary ground.
Race 12 (Trouble With Girls, Dennis Ward-Paco Lopez, 1:13.0)
Trouble With Girls didn't get any pressure on the lead, and it showed. He set a :22.4 opening quarter, which compared to the rest of the races on the day's card, was glacial. A few horses in the field tried to rally, but nobody else did, so Trouble With Girls essentially won by default. Even at the n/w3L level next out, he'll be one I view with suspicion.
That wraps up Opening Week at Monmouth Park. Hope everybody out there made some money. I'll see you Friday for a breakdown of Saturday's card.
Saturday, May 9, 2015
May 10, 2015: Picks and Analysis
My selections for Sunday's card.
Weather Forecast: 77*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This is a perfect storm of a bad betting race--bad horses in a small field. When the 7/5 morning line favorite, and likely odds-on favorite in real life, is 0-14, there's some issues. Of course, the filly in question, the 2, Gallant Lady, appears to be such a standout on figures, that there's really no way to pick against her. My suggestion is just to watch this one--maybe.
2- Gallant Lady (7/5)
6- Rockin Alli (9/5)
5- La Guitara (4/1)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It appears to be another solid choice in this one, as the 4, Hold Everything, has the dangerous combination of Paco Lopez riding and David Jacobson training. He also holds the co-highest last-out figure in the race, with a 79, and has run numbers of 81 and 82 in the past. Of course, he isn't a total standout--after all, both the 1, Roman Officer, and the 6, Bea Wildcat, have run comparable numbers in the past. Hold Everything is on the morning line at 2/1, but the aforementioned trainer-jockey combination may skyrocket him into unbettable-odds territory. In that case, I'd suggest using him in some multi-race bets, and perhaps playing some exactas involving him with some of the other major contenders. Don't bet him to win, however, unless the price is right--there's no guarantee that he'll be worth it.
4- Hold Everything (2/1)
6- Bea Wildcat (5/1)
1- Roman Officer/1A- Gerry With a G (4/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
It's another relatively tricky field of maiden claiming fillies and mares, which is saved by a horse with good figures and some early speed--in this case, the 7, Twisted Kick. In her last two starts at Laurel, she showed early speed both times, only to falter late. Nonetheless, with the way that the track was playing on Saturday, there's a good chance that, if she manages to take to the lead, she'll jump out early on and just not look back. With a 5/1 morning line price, there's a chance that her odds will be very appealing.
If not her, I would look towards Charlie's Rainbow, who ran two decent races at Tampa over the winter, and the 6 Confrontational, who totally stopped in her last effort at Gulfstream, but has workouts that indicate that she may rebound here.
7- Twisted Kick (5/1)
8- Charlie's Rainbow (6/1)
6- Confrontational (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
There's only one horse in the race that has shown both recent good form and consistency, and that's the 5, One for Don. In his last three efforts at Parx, he has earned brisnet figures of 87, 77, and 82. No one else in the field has been able to pull off a 77 on a regular basis, which would give him the victory.
Others to watch in the field are the 1, Indy Sea, and the 8, Imtrulyinthemood, who have run similar numbers in the past. One to avoid is the 4, Steve's Adventures, who once showed great ability, but hasn't raced in more than two years, and was vanned off in his last start. I can't trust a horse like that, especially at possible low odds.
5- One For Don (2/1)
8- I'mtrulyinthemood (6/1)
1- Indy Sea (5/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Yet another difficult race concludes this early pick 5, and it's not one where a winner is readily apparent. In this case, I went with a filly who has not been super-impressive in her three career starts, but nonetheless has been slowly getting faster in each of her last few. That would be the 8, Discreet Concorde, who ran a last-out best of a 73 at Gulfstream Park on April 23. She had a terrific work at Monmouth on May 4, and today looks to be as good of a day as any for her to break her maiden.
If not her, I'll take the 2, Luckystrikedelcoco, who narrowly missed two starts back at Tampa at this level, with an impressive figure of a 75. If she can run back to that number, and is able to close like she did in that race, she'll be tough to beat.
8- Discreet Concorde (7/2)
2- Luckystrikedelcoco (7/2)
6- Key d'Oro (4/1)
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
This is a very wide-open race, one that any of the six that are entered can win. I wound up going with the 4, Vinceremos, who's making his third start off the layoff for the formidable Todd Pletcher stable. He ran brisnet figures in those races of 88 and 89, and even a mild step up would likely give him the win. The only issue is that he's the 8/5 morning line favorite; I don't think he's worth a bet at lower than 2/1 odds.
While, as I noted, pretty much any one of the other five can win this one, my chief alternates to the favorite are the 6, Harbor Kid, who ran a terrific 93 figure last out at Parx, and the 2, Bama Bound, who has run some great races sprinting, but will have to stretch out to a route to win this one.
4- Vinceremos (8/5)
6- Harbor Kid (9/2)
2- Bama Bound (4/1)
Race 7: Claiming $20,000 (n/w3L) 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
On paper, the 10, The Real McCoy is tepidly the best. She's the only one of the bunch to consistently run great brisnet figures, turning in a 79, a 74, and a 76, respectively, in her last three races. In her last start on March 13 at Tampa Bay Downs, she was rallying late, when she was forced to steady and miss the victory by 1 1/4 lengths. Had she not encountered that trouble late, she may very well have won that one. I'll be hoping that she can avoid trouble--and overcome trainer Tim Richardson's 4% winning percentage with horses off a layoff--and get the job done here.
Others to consider include the 9, Indian Chaser, who figures to show the most early speed, the 4 Echale Salsita, who won in gate-to-wire fashion last out at Gulfstream, and the 6, Shesfromboston, who ran well over this Monmouth grass course last year.
10- The Real McCoy (7/2)
9- Indian Chaser (5/1)
6- Shesfromboston (10/1)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x) 3yo, 6 Furlongs
I can only see one serious contender in here: the 4, Easy to Say. Two starts back, he broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park, fending off two other duelers while racing in the three-path. In the Bay Shore Stakes, where he may have been in over his head, he broke through the gate before the start and wilted amidst the pace duel, yet still ran an 84 brisnet figure, which is one of the best earned by anyone in the field ever. If one figures that he'll equal or improve his 91 number two back with an easier field and trip, then he should get the job done.
Also watch for the 10, Nolan's Dream, who ran well first off the layoff at Pimlico and has the dangerous Jamie Ness training, and the 3, Mach My Day, who ran two good races at Gulfstream this winter.
4- Easy to Say (3/1)
10- Nolan's Dream (5/1)
3- Mach My Day (6/1)
Race 9: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
While I doubt that both halves will run, the entry of the 1, Stolen Victory, and the 1A, More Than Rainbows, Stolen Victory ran a 72 brisnet figure last time out at Aqueduct, which is near the top of the last out numbers in this bunch, and is making her third start off the layoff, which should give her a shot to improve even more. The 1A, More Than Rainbows, was dull first off the layoff last time out, but has shown ability on grass in the past, and has the right to wake up here.
The 4, Good Catholic Girl, is the most consistently fast in the field, and has a lot of early speed, but trainer Charles Harvatt is hitting at only 1-49 with horses off the layoff this year. Who knows, with a field like this, maybe Good Catholic Girl will make it 2-50. Regardless, I can't make a super-strong case for anyone in here, so I'd advise treading lightly.
1- Stolen Victory/1A- More Than Rainbows (2/1)
4- Good Catholic Girl (3/1)
5- Glory Style (7/2)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race gives us the oddity of a non-winners of one other than allowance race at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and up, scheduled just two races after one restricted to the same level for just 3 year olds. Unsurprisingly, no 3 year olds are in this race.
Anyway, I decided to take the 9, Blings Express, in this one. He ran the best last out number of anyone in the field, at a 96, and run up to a 100 earlier in the year at Gulfstream. He's definitely got some top-class ability, and at 9/2 odds, he's worth a shot for "shore".
9- Blings Express (9/2)
2- Alfredo Romana (12/1)
10- Acini de Pepe (8/1)
Race 11: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This one runs through three horses in here--the 2, Songa, the 3, Cho Time, and the 4, Scatter Joy. While I couldn't blame you for taking any one of those three, I settled on Scatter Joy in here, as she has consistently run figures in the mid-to-upper 90s, including the best last-out figure of a 93. She also possesses dangerous early speed, plus the riding services of Paco Lopez. She will probably be the deserving favorite, and a must-use on any pick 4 or pick 5 tickets.
4- Scatter Joy (2/1)
2- Songa (3/1)
3- Cho Time (3/1)
Race 12: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
All you need to do here is look to the inside three in the finale, because they're the only three who have a chance, in my opinion. My top selection is the 1, Major in Time, who has the best last-out figure of 69, plus consistent figures in that key high-60s range.
1- Major in Time (7/2)
2- Trouble With Girls (8/5)
3- Goose Bay (12/1)
The first race tomorrow is 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck, everybody!
Weather Forecast: 77*F, Partly Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This is a perfect storm of a bad betting race--bad horses in a small field. When the 7/5 morning line favorite, and likely odds-on favorite in real life, is 0-14, there's some issues. Of course, the filly in question, the 2, Gallant Lady, appears to be such a standout on figures, that there's really no way to pick against her. My suggestion is just to watch this one--maybe.
2- Gallant Lady (7/5)
6- Rockin Alli (9/5)
5- La Guitara (4/1)
Race 2: Claiming $12,500 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It appears to be another solid choice in this one, as the 4, Hold Everything, has the dangerous combination of Paco Lopez riding and David Jacobson training. He also holds the co-highest last-out figure in the race, with a 79, and has run numbers of 81 and 82 in the past. Of course, he isn't a total standout--after all, both the 1, Roman Officer, and the 6, Bea Wildcat, have run comparable numbers in the past. Hold Everything is on the morning line at 2/1, but the aforementioned trainer-jockey combination may skyrocket him into unbettable-odds territory. In that case, I'd suggest using him in some multi-race bets, and perhaps playing some exactas involving him with some of the other major contenders. Don't bet him to win, however, unless the price is right--there's no guarantee that he'll be worth it.
4- Hold Everything (2/1)
6- Bea Wildcat (5/1)
1- Roman Officer/1A- Gerry With a G (4/1)
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
It's another relatively tricky field of maiden claiming fillies and mares, which is saved by a horse with good figures and some early speed--in this case, the 7, Twisted Kick. In her last two starts at Laurel, she showed early speed both times, only to falter late. Nonetheless, with the way that the track was playing on Saturday, there's a good chance that, if she manages to take to the lead, she'll jump out early on and just not look back. With a 5/1 morning line price, there's a chance that her odds will be very appealing.
If not her, I would look towards Charlie's Rainbow, who ran two decent races at Tampa over the winter, and the 6 Confrontational, who totally stopped in her last effort at Gulfstream, but has workouts that indicate that she may rebound here.
7- Twisted Kick (5/1)
8- Charlie's Rainbow (6/1)
6- Confrontational (5/2)
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
There's only one horse in the race that has shown both recent good form and consistency, and that's the 5, One for Don. In his last three efforts at Parx, he has earned brisnet figures of 87, 77, and 82. No one else in the field has been able to pull off a 77 on a regular basis, which would give him the victory.
Others to watch in the field are the 1, Indy Sea, and the 8, Imtrulyinthemood, who have run similar numbers in the past. One to avoid is the 4, Steve's Adventures, who once showed great ability, but hasn't raced in more than two years, and was vanned off in his last start. I can't trust a horse like that, especially at possible low odds.
5- One For Don (2/1)
8- I'mtrulyinthemood (6/1)
1- Indy Sea (5/2)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
Yet another difficult race concludes this early pick 5, and it's not one where a winner is readily apparent. In this case, I went with a filly who has not been super-impressive in her three career starts, but nonetheless has been slowly getting faster in each of her last few. That would be the 8, Discreet Concorde, who ran a last-out best of a 73 at Gulfstream Park on April 23. She had a terrific work at Monmouth on May 4, and today looks to be as good of a day as any for her to break her maiden.
If not her, I'll take the 2, Luckystrikedelcoco, who narrowly missed two starts back at Tampa at this level, with an impressive figure of a 75. If she can run back to that number, and is able to close like she did in that race, she'll be tough to beat.
8- Discreet Concorde (7/2)
2- Luckystrikedelcoco (7/2)
6- Key d'Oro (4/1)
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
This is a very wide-open race, one that any of the six that are entered can win. I wound up going with the 4, Vinceremos, who's making his third start off the layoff for the formidable Todd Pletcher stable. He ran brisnet figures in those races of 88 and 89, and even a mild step up would likely give him the win. The only issue is that he's the 8/5 morning line favorite; I don't think he's worth a bet at lower than 2/1 odds.
While, as I noted, pretty much any one of the other five can win this one, my chief alternates to the favorite are the 6, Harbor Kid, who ran a terrific 93 figure last out at Parx, and the 2, Bama Bound, who has run some great races sprinting, but will have to stretch out to a route to win this one.
4- Vinceremos (8/5)
6- Harbor Kid (9/2)
2- Bama Bound (4/1)
Race 7: Claiming $20,000 (n/w3L) 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
On paper, the 10, The Real McCoy is tepidly the best. She's the only one of the bunch to consistently run great brisnet figures, turning in a 79, a 74, and a 76, respectively, in her last three races. In her last start on March 13 at Tampa Bay Downs, she was rallying late, when she was forced to steady and miss the victory by 1 1/4 lengths. Had she not encountered that trouble late, she may very well have won that one. I'll be hoping that she can avoid trouble--and overcome trainer Tim Richardson's 4% winning percentage with horses off a layoff--and get the job done here.
Others to consider include the 9, Indian Chaser, who figures to show the most early speed, the 4 Echale Salsita, who won in gate-to-wire fashion last out at Gulfstream, and the 6, Shesfromboston, who ran well over this Monmouth grass course last year.
10- The Real McCoy (7/2)
9- Indian Chaser (5/1)
6- Shesfromboston (10/1)
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x) 3yo, 6 Furlongs
I can only see one serious contender in here: the 4, Easy to Say. Two starts back, he broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park, fending off two other duelers while racing in the three-path. In the Bay Shore Stakes, where he may have been in over his head, he broke through the gate before the start and wilted amidst the pace duel, yet still ran an 84 brisnet figure, which is one of the best earned by anyone in the field ever. If one figures that he'll equal or improve his 91 number two back with an easier field and trip, then he should get the job done.
Also watch for the 10, Nolan's Dream, who ran well first off the layoff at Pimlico and has the dangerous Jamie Ness training, and the 3, Mach My Day, who ran two good races at Gulfstream this winter.
4- Easy to Say (3/1)
10- Nolan's Dream (5/1)
3- Mach My Day (6/1)
Race 9: Claiming $20,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
While I doubt that both halves will run, the entry of the 1, Stolen Victory, and the 1A, More Than Rainbows, Stolen Victory ran a 72 brisnet figure last time out at Aqueduct, which is near the top of the last out numbers in this bunch, and is making her third start off the layoff, which should give her a shot to improve even more. The 1A, More Than Rainbows, was dull first off the layoff last time out, but has shown ability on grass in the past, and has the right to wake up here.
The 4, Good Catholic Girl, is the most consistently fast in the field, and has a lot of early speed, but trainer Charles Harvatt is hitting at only 1-49 with horses off the layoff this year. Who knows, with a field like this, maybe Good Catholic Girl will make it 2-50. Regardless, I can't make a super-strong case for anyone in here, so I'd advise treading lightly.
1- Stolen Victory/1A- More Than Rainbows (2/1)
4- Good Catholic Girl (3/1)
5- Glory Style (7/2)
Race 10: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
This race gives us the oddity of a non-winners of one other than allowance race at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and up, scheduled just two races after one restricted to the same level for just 3 year olds. Unsurprisingly, no 3 year olds are in this race.
Anyway, I decided to take the 9, Blings Express, in this one. He ran the best last out number of anyone in the field, at a 96, and run up to a 100 earlier in the year at Gulfstream. He's definitely got some top-class ability, and at 9/2 odds, he's worth a shot for "shore".
9- Blings Express (9/2)
2- Alfredo Romana (12/1)
10- Acini de Pepe (8/1)
Race 11: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
This one runs through three horses in here--the 2, Songa, the 3, Cho Time, and the 4, Scatter Joy. While I couldn't blame you for taking any one of those three, I settled on Scatter Joy in here, as she has consistently run figures in the mid-to-upper 90s, including the best last-out figure of a 93. She also possesses dangerous early speed, plus the riding services of Paco Lopez. She will probably be the deserving favorite, and a must-use on any pick 4 or pick 5 tickets.
4- Scatter Joy (2/1)
2- Songa (3/1)
3- Cho Time (3/1)
Race 12: Claiming $7,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
All you need to do here is look to the inside three in the finale, because they're the only three who have a chance, in my opinion. My top selection is the 1, Major in Time, who has the best last-out figure of 69, plus consistent figures in that key high-60s range.
1- Major in Time (7/2)
2- Trouble With Girls (8/5)
3- Goose Bay (12/1)
The first race tomorrow is 12:50 PM EDT. Good luck, everybody!
Monmouth Racing Recap: 5/9/15
Opening Day at Monmouth Park for 2015 was a cloudy one, but the fog cleared up soon enough, and racing was conducted before more than 11,000 excited fans under cloudy skies.
Race 1 (Mello Groove, Rory Huston-Armando Ayuso, 1:06.1)
It sounded like an exciting race--unfortunately, the public couldn't see it, due to heavy fog. When the horses finally emerged, they saw Mello Groove and Greed is Good fighting tooth-and-nail down to the wire, with Mello Groove emerging as the winner. Given--as we'll see later on--that the rail was the place to be, Mello Groove's effort has to be considered impressive. Take nothing away from Greed is Good, either: he fought hard and narrowly missed off a long layoff. Watch for both of them next time out.
Race 2 (Van Frassen, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:45.1)
In the first race of the year that we, for the most part, could see, Marvelous Chester set the early pace, but faltered on the inside. Van Frassen, meanwhile, sat the dream trip, rating in the two-path to draw away, and turn away rail-rallying Bo Badger. David Jacobson earns his first win of the year with this one.
Race 3 (Fiesta Rose, Dennis Ward-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.1)
This race was over about five seconds after it began, when Fiesta Rose shot out to the front and drew away to win by eight easy lengths. No one else in the field was really gaining ground on her, at all, so be aware this performance was not as impressive as it may seem. Jacobson claimed this filly for $40,000, to the surprise of few.
Race 4 (Indian Fighter, Rudy Rodriguez-Inoel Beato, 1:06.0)
I had expressed concern over Indian Fighter's class drop, but he proved me wrong by going to the lead from the rail, fending off the tries of several of his rivals to score convincingly. It was probably the drop down to the $20,000 level that proved to do the trick. It'll be interesting to see how he does next out against winners, especially considering he got claimed by Jacobson.
Race 5 (Nauset Beach, Terri Pompay-Abel Castellano, 1:46.1)
This one looked to be in Village Warrior's back pocket when he got a good trip stalking leader Nauset Beach. However, Village Warrior just could not get by, as Nauset Beach hung on to become the third straight gate-to-wire winner of the program. It's unclear how much of Village Warrior's defeat was due to an apparent track bias, or if he was just hanging down the stretch. Regardless, there will be cause for concern heading into his next.
Race 6 (Light's Gone Wild, Chuck Spina-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.1)
My pick, Charlesbrecknridge, was once again off slowly, while 14/1 shot Light's Gone Wild rushed out to the early lead with an aggressive ride by Jose Ferrer, and (again!) held off the rest of his competition for the victory. It's at this point of the day where one must wonder how much of a track bias there was, but if there was one, Charlesbrecknridge's effort merits a long look, as he rallied up the inside to finish a solid fourth. Comic Bird, who rated up on the outside only to stop late, may be a candidate to improve next out as well.
Race 7 (Oak Bluffs, Jaime Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.4)
This was one of the first races all day where the speed faded, as What the Chub rocketed to the lead from post position 1 while being stalked by several rivals, only to throw in the towel late. Favored Oak Bluffs, meanwhile, rallied from two lengths off the lead, really running strong after being freed from a trap behind horses. Both him, and Behr in the Woods, who rallied to get up for third late, are ones to keep an eye on, especially when one considers how speed-favoring the track was.
Race 8 (Stableford, Phil Serpe-Abel Castellano, 1:42.0)
The first grass race of the year was a thriller, as two of the logical horses in the race, Stableford and Pirradazis, rated off leading Broadway Zen, and battled with each other down the lane. Stableford held off Pirradazis's explosive rail rally to secure the victory. This makes Broadway Zen 1-14 over the last year and a half, and ensures that while he'll probably get the lead, he won't hold on to it.
Race 9 (Misszippityslewda, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:11.1)
It was a laughably easy win for Misszippityslewda, who got to the early lead, and drew off to a dominating 13 length win. Jacobson lost this filly at the claim box, but claimed runner-up Casual Elegance. You win some, you lose some, I guess.
Race 10 (Wild Billum, Charles Harvett-Daniel Centeno, 1:41.2)
This race was as much of a scramble as you can get, as Majestic Jess, who set the pace almost the whole way, was sixth despite being only one length behind the winner, Wild Billum, who rated inside and shot through a hole up the rail to get the job done. Both Hyman Roth and Azure Dragon ran similar races, only they moved on the outside, rendering their efforts a mere footnote.
Race 11 (A.P. Indian, Arnaud Delacour-Daniel Centeno, 1:09.2)
I'll give Favorite Tale some credit here, as it was his first start since November of last year and he ran a solid second in what was, by far, the fastest 6 furlong race of the day, but he couldn't get by A.P. Indian who got the dream trip setting the pace on the rail. If Favorite Tale is able to get a similar field on a normal track next time out, he's going to be very tough to beat.
Race 12 (Stevie's Moonshot, Todd Pletcher-Paco Lopez, 1:41.4)
Last year's leading jockey Paco Lopez earns his first win of the season, as favored Stevie's Moonshot proves my concern about his long layoff unfounded with a victory. He did it while making a rally from thirteen lengths out of it, something no other horse in today's three grass races was able to do. Possibly a good sign going forward.
Track Bias: Speed-favoring. The place to be today was on the lead and on the rail. All but one dirt winner was on or near the lead today, and no horse closed from far back to win. Watch for any horse who ran even decently from the back of the pack in their next start, because that may be a good bet.
That wraps up Opening Day at Monmouth. Sunday's analysis is coming up shortly.
Race 1 (Mello Groove, Rory Huston-Armando Ayuso, 1:06.1)
It sounded like an exciting race--unfortunately, the public couldn't see it, due to heavy fog. When the horses finally emerged, they saw Mello Groove and Greed is Good fighting tooth-and-nail down to the wire, with Mello Groove emerging as the winner. Given--as we'll see later on--that the rail was the place to be, Mello Groove's effort has to be considered impressive. Take nothing away from Greed is Good, either: he fought hard and narrowly missed off a long layoff. Watch for both of them next time out.
Race 2 (Van Frassen, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:45.1)
In the first race of the year that we, for the most part, could see, Marvelous Chester set the early pace, but faltered on the inside. Van Frassen, meanwhile, sat the dream trip, rating in the two-path to draw away, and turn away rail-rallying Bo Badger. David Jacobson earns his first win of the year with this one.
Race 3 (Fiesta Rose, Dennis Ward-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.1)
This race was over about five seconds after it began, when Fiesta Rose shot out to the front and drew away to win by eight easy lengths. No one else in the field was really gaining ground on her, at all, so be aware this performance was not as impressive as it may seem. Jacobson claimed this filly for $40,000, to the surprise of few.
Race 4 (Indian Fighter, Rudy Rodriguez-Inoel Beato, 1:06.0)
I had expressed concern over Indian Fighter's class drop, but he proved me wrong by going to the lead from the rail, fending off the tries of several of his rivals to score convincingly. It was probably the drop down to the $20,000 level that proved to do the trick. It'll be interesting to see how he does next out against winners, especially considering he got claimed by Jacobson.
Race 5 (Nauset Beach, Terri Pompay-Abel Castellano, 1:46.1)
This one looked to be in Village Warrior's back pocket when he got a good trip stalking leader Nauset Beach. However, Village Warrior just could not get by, as Nauset Beach hung on to become the third straight gate-to-wire winner of the program. It's unclear how much of Village Warrior's defeat was due to an apparent track bias, or if he was just hanging down the stretch. Regardless, there will be cause for concern heading into his next.
Race 6 (Light's Gone Wild, Chuck Spina-Jose Ferrer, 1:11.1)
My pick, Charlesbrecknridge, was once again off slowly, while 14/1 shot Light's Gone Wild rushed out to the early lead with an aggressive ride by Jose Ferrer, and (again!) held off the rest of his competition for the victory. It's at this point of the day where one must wonder how much of a track bias there was, but if there was one, Charlesbrecknridge's effort merits a long look, as he rallied up the inside to finish a solid fourth. Comic Bird, who rated up on the outside only to stop late, may be a candidate to improve next out as well.
Race 7 (Oak Bluffs, Jaime Ness-Trevor McCarthy, 1:11.4)
This was one of the first races all day where the speed faded, as What the Chub rocketed to the lead from post position 1 while being stalked by several rivals, only to throw in the towel late. Favored Oak Bluffs, meanwhile, rallied from two lengths off the lead, really running strong after being freed from a trap behind horses. Both him, and Behr in the Woods, who rallied to get up for third late, are ones to keep an eye on, especially when one considers how speed-favoring the track was.
Race 8 (Stableford, Phil Serpe-Abel Castellano, 1:42.0)
The first grass race of the year was a thriller, as two of the logical horses in the race, Stableford and Pirradazis, rated off leading Broadway Zen, and battled with each other down the lane. Stableford held off Pirradazis's explosive rail rally to secure the victory. This makes Broadway Zen 1-14 over the last year and a half, and ensures that while he'll probably get the lead, he won't hold on to it.
Race 9 (Misszippityslewda, David Jacobson-Andre Worrie, 1:11.1)
It was a laughably easy win for Misszippityslewda, who got to the early lead, and drew off to a dominating 13 length win. Jacobson lost this filly at the claim box, but claimed runner-up Casual Elegance. You win some, you lose some, I guess.
Race 10 (Wild Billum, Charles Harvett-Daniel Centeno, 1:41.2)
This race was as much of a scramble as you can get, as Majestic Jess, who set the pace almost the whole way, was sixth despite being only one length behind the winner, Wild Billum, who rated inside and shot through a hole up the rail to get the job done. Both Hyman Roth and Azure Dragon ran similar races, only they moved on the outside, rendering their efforts a mere footnote.
Race 11 (A.P. Indian, Arnaud Delacour-Daniel Centeno, 1:09.2)
I'll give Favorite Tale some credit here, as it was his first start since November of last year and he ran a solid second in what was, by far, the fastest 6 furlong race of the day, but he couldn't get by A.P. Indian who got the dream trip setting the pace on the rail. If Favorite Tale is able to get a similar field on a normal track next time out, he's going to be very tough to beat.
Race 12 (Stevie's Moonshot, Todd Pletcher-Paco Lopez, 1:41.4)
Last year's leading jockey Paco Lopez earns his first win of the season, as favored Stevie's Moonshot proves my concern about his long layoff unfounded with a victory. He did it while making a rally from thirteen lengths out of it, something no other horse in today's three grass races was able to do. Possibly a good sign going forward.
Track Bias: Speed-favoring. The place to be today was on the lead and on the rail. All but one dirt winner was on or near the lead today, and no horse closed from far back to win. Watch for any horse who ran even decently from the back of the pack in their next start, because that may be a good bet.
That wraps up Opening Day at Monmouth. Sunday's analysis is coming up shortly.
Friday, May 8, 2015
May 9, 2015: Picks and Analysis
Here's my thoughts on Saturday's Opening Day Program.
Weather Forecast: 69*F, Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up NJ-Bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
There's no better way to begin the season than with a winner, and I think I know who it's going to be in here. The 7, Just Ace, has run the best brisnet figures in the field on a consistent basis. His last three numbers have been a 71, 70, and 70. Only two other horses in the field have run at least that on the dirt even once. Moreover, he's got the ever-dangerous third-race-off-the-layoff angle, and trainer Patricia Farro hits at a solid 19% clip with those numbers. Just Ace is going to be tough to beat here, and will likely stamp his name as the first winner of 2015 at Monmouth Park.
Others to consider are the 8, Sandman Cometh, who ran a solid 72 figure in his last race, in February at Tampa Bay Downs, and the 2, Play it Again, who ran a set of improved numbers over the winter at Parx.
7- Just Ace (2/1)
8- Sandman Cometh (5/1)
2- Play it Again (8/1)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile and 70 Yards, Dirt
Two horses stood out to me on paper in this race, both Maryland invaders: the 1, Bo Badger, and the 4, Marvelous Chester. I eventually decided to go with the 10-year-old veteran, Marvelous Chester, in here. He has a slight edge in his figures, earning two 76s in his last two starts in Maryland, and possesses some early speed in a race that is completely devoid of it. As long as jockey Armando Ayuso recognizes that fact, there is a good chance that Chester will walk to the lead and not look back. It would be cool to see a veteran like Chester win, regardless--Saturday will be his 81st career start.
Bo Badger can certainly win, as well--he had a solid workout on April 27 at Monmouth in preparation for the season, and his figures this winter in Maryland were pretty good. At a 10/1 morning line, he may be one to consider if the price is right.
The 6, Van Fraassen, is trained by David Jacobson, always an angle to consider, although a 2/1 morning line may be overselling his virtues, while the 7, Monroe Court, was consistent at this level at Tampa Bay Downs in the winter.
4- Marvelous Chester (4/1)
1- Bo Badger (10/1)
6- Van Fraassen (2/1)
Race 3: Claiming $40,000 (N/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I look toward the coupled entry, the 1, Fiesta Rose, and the 1A, Extreme Excess. I am willing to toss Fiesta Rose's last race, on April 4 at Tampa Bay Downs, as she was likely over her head in that race in stakes company. She totally backed up during a fast paced-duel, and was eased up late, beaten 48 1/2 lengths. Before that, she had never backed down during a duel before, never having an easy time on the lead, yet sporting a record of 5-2-3-0 in his previous races. Taking a sharp drop in class here, she should hang around till the end, and if she's not winning, she'll at least be close.
The 7, My Little Darlings, has the best last out figure of anyone in the field, with an 86, and also employs the riding services of the likable Jersey Joe Bravo. And while her last start looks impressive, having dueled the whole way around, only to miss by 3/4 of a length, that was at a mile, and the pace was not that fast. Who knows how she'll hold up against a faster pace at a shorter distance? Being the likely favorite, I'll look elsewhere, and take Fiesta Rose.
1- Fiesta Rose/1A- Extreme Excess (7/2)
7- My Little Darlings (2/1)
6- Offlee Sheikh (4/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3 yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
This low-level maiden claiming race is a matter of who doesn't want it the least. On paper, the 2, Indian Fighter looks much the best. Two out of his last three starts tower over the rest of the field, with an 86 and an 84 figure. Furthermore, he's got speed from post position 2, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at 25% with shippers.
There is one issue of mild concern, however. Just two starts ago, Indian Fighter was racing in maiden special weight company at Laurel. After running a disappointing fifth there, he was dropped to the $50,000 maiden claiming level at Aqueduct. Understandable in that case. Why, then, after running well for that price, is he being dropped into a $25,000 maiden claiming? After all, there's no shortage of $50,000 maiden claimings at either Belmont or Monmouth. I mean, maybe I'm just reading too much into this, and he'll coast, but I'm not sure what kind of shape he's in if he's taking that much of a drop in class. Buyer beware, I say.
Should he disappoint, I look toward the 10, Splitter, who ran three increasingly-improving figures at Gulfstream over the winter, and the 8, Antoine's, who was solid at this level at Tampa over the winter.
2- Indian Fighter (2/1)
10- Splitter (5/1)
8- Antoine's (10/1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
In my opinion, this race does not require much imagination, as the 2, Village Warrior, appears to be a standout. His races over the winter at Aqueduct were superior to anyone else's in the field, running figures of 100, 99, and 89. He also was a solid second in the Evening Attire Stakes back in February at Aqueduct. No one else in the field has been able to run that fast consistently. Being owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher doesn't hurt.
Because Village Warrior will likely be a big enough favorite that he'll be a bad win bet, I'll look toward horses to run under him to complete the exacta. My two big horses in that regard are the 4, Box Office, who consistently runs numbers in the high 80s, and is trained by the reliable Jason Servis, and the 7, Percussion, who runs similar figures.
2- Village Warrior (8/5)
7- Percussion (4/1)
4- Box Office (5/1)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I will take the 1, Charlesbrecknridge, here. His first start at Keeneland, on April 17, was a promising one. He broke slowly, rushed himself back into contention, and only missed by 1/2 length, earning an 84 brisnet figure first out. Considering he ran that great first time out, and ran that kind of figure, it's likely that he'll improve with a good break. At a 5/1 morning line, the odds should be good.
The morning line favorite, at 2/1, is the 7, Comic Bird, who can certainly win, too--he ran two solid figures at Oaklawn over the winter, and had two impressive workouts at Delaware in preparation for this meet. He may also be the first Arkansas-bred to be the favorite in a race at Monmouth Park. Watch for him, too.
1- Charlesbrecknridge (5/1)
7- Comic Bird (2/1)
2- Rare (5/1)
Race 7: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
This is a typical field for a New Jersey-bred allowance race: big, wide-open, and a race that I wish was in one of the pick 5s. Regardless, it was a difficult race to handicap, but I eventually settled on the 5, Behr in the Woods. In his last start, on April 18 at Parx, he made a solid closing rally at a similar level, finishing second by 3/4 of a length. The 92 figure he earned in that race marks the best in the field, and I would imagine he'll repeat that number here.
Also ones to watch are the 7, Oak Bluffs, who consistently runs numbers in the 80s, and is trained by the ever-dangerous Jamie Ness, and the 1, What the Chub, who will hope to duplicate his big gate-to-wire score at Penn National in his last start.
5- Behr in the Woods (7/2)
7- Oak Bluffs (5/2)
1- What the Chub (12/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (N/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The grass season begins with this race, an 11-horse affair to begin the late pick 5. This race appears to run through three horses--the 1, Stableford, the 9, Broadway Zen, and the 10, Pirradazis. I wound up going with Broadway Zen, who is the only one in the field to consistently show speed. Furthermore, his last two figures were an 80 and a 77, two of the best in the field. There's a good chance that he'll be able to take the lead early on and wire this bunch.
Stableford, the 1, has the best last out-figure in the race, with an 83, but he has come in the top three only once in his last eight starts. Pirradazis, meanwhile, has not been able to crack the 78 ceiling lately, and that may prove to be a cut below these.
9- Broadway Zen (3/1)
10- Pirradazis (9/2)
1- Stableford (4/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a solid field of allowance fillies and mares going six furlongs to kick off the late pick 4. While both the 3, Misszippityslewda, and the 4, Liberty Fuze. I decided to go with Misszippityslewda, who ran four tremendous figures at Aqueduct during the winter: 88, 92, 97 and 92. She's also trained by David Jacobson, who had a great season last year at Monmouth, and likely has cranked her--and all his horses--up for a Monmouth campaign this summer.
Also watch for the aforementioned Liberty Fuze, who ran two gret race over the winter at Aqueduct--including one win by 12 lengths--but may get involved in a duel with several of the speed horses from her outside. Misszippityslewda, on the other hand, is not totally speed-depedent, and may be able to sit off the duel and pick up the pieces late.
3- Misszippityslewda (8/5)
4- Liberty Fuze (2/1)
5- Casual Elegance (8/1)
Race 10: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
If the 1A, Treasury Devil, draws in off the also-eligible list, he looks to be very tough to beat, despite his outside post position. His last three figures are an 85, 93, and 90, which are generally the best in the field by a longshot. Despite his long layoff, trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at a solid 24% clip with horses off a 46-90 day break, which bodes well for a good comeback win.
Should Treasury Devil not draw in, I'll take the 6, Hyman Roth. His last race at Tampa was a textbook win--stalking the pace, and then blowing by for the win. His 86 number is the best last-out figure in the race, and the $16,000 should fit him very well. At 6/1, he should be a very good bet.
1A- Treasury Devil (4/1)
6- Hyman Roth (6/1)
9- Azure Dragon (6/1)
Race 11: Decathlon Stakes, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's the feature race on Opening Day, and drew a solid field of 14 hard-knocking sprinters. There's easily six or seven horses who can logically win this race, and whoever you like, you'll get a good price if the field stays intact.
After much waffling, I wound up going with the 12, Piquant. He's won three straight races, including the Peeping Tom Stakes at Aqueduct. His 99 figure is one of the best last-out number in the field, albeit by only a few digits. He may have an outside post, but that hasn't detracted him before--he won that Peeping Tom Stakes from post position 12. He's my pick to win the first stakes of the Monmouth season, and at 6/1, he'll be a good bet.
Others to consider include the 3, Moments Notiz, the venerable David Jacobson trainee who ran well last out at Aqueduct, the 4, Favorite Tale, who won the Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx last year, albeit over a very speed-favoring track, the 8, King Henry, who narrowly missed in a few races at Laurel, the 10, AP Indian, who is the most likely to take the early lead, and the 11, Javerre, who has the best last-out figure in the race, with a 102.
12- Piquant (6/1)
10- A.P. Indian (6/1)
4- Favorite Tale (5/1)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The nightcap on Opening Day is a wide-open race, too. I went with the 9, Kid Gallivan, who ran two great races at Gulfstream over the winter, and has some of the best numbers in the field. I am leery of the morning line favorite, the 4, Stevie's Moonshot, coming off a year layoff and taking a drop to maiden claiming from maiden special weight company. The 8, Strike 'Em Down, has run some great races, too, but is 0-10 lifetime, never a good sign.
9- Kid Gallivan (4/1)
8- Strike 'Em Down (5/1)
1- Moonlight Party (12/1)
The first race tomorrow is at 12:50 PM EDT, with the featured 11th race going off at about 5:43 PM. Good luck, everyone!
Weather Forecast: 69*F, Cloudy
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up NJ-Bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
There's no better way to begin the season than with a winner, and I think I know who it's going to be in here. The 7, Just Ace, has run the best brisnet figures in the field on a consistent basis. His last three numbers have been a 71, 70, and 70. Only two other horses in the field have run at least that on the dirt even once. Moreover, he's got the ever-dangerous third-race-off-the-layoff angle, and trainer Patricia Farro hits at a solid 19% clip with those numbers. Just Ace is going to be tough to beat here, and will likely stamp his name as the first winner of 2015 at Monmouth Park.
Others to consider are the 8, Sandman Cometh, who ran a solid 72 figure in his last race, in February at Tampa Bay Downs, and the 2, Play it Again, who ran a set of improved numbers over the winter at Parx.
7- Just Ace (2/1)
8- Sandman Cometh (5/1)
2- Play it Again (8/1)
Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile and 70 Yards, Dirt
Two horses stood out to me on paper in this race, both Maryland invaders: the 1, Bo Badger, and the 4, Marvelous Chester. I eventually decided to go with the 10-year-old veteran, Marvelous Chester, in here. He has a slight edge in his figures, earning two 76s in his last two starts in Maryland, and possesses some early speed in a race that is completely devoid of it. As long as jockey Armando Ayuso recognizes that fact, there is a good chance that Chester will walk to the lead and not look back. It would be cool to see a veteran like Chester win, regardless--Saturday will be his 81st career start.
Bo Badger can certainly win, as well--he had a solid workout on April 27 at Monmouth in preparation for the season, and his figures this winter in Maryland were pretty good. At a 10/1 morning line, he may be one to consider if the price is right.
The 6, Van Fraassen, is trained by David Jacobson, always an angle to consider, although a 2/1 morning line may be overselling his virtues, while the 7, Monroe Court, was consistent at this level at Tampa Bay Downs in the winter.
4- Marvelous Chester (4/1)
1- Bo Badger (10/1)
6- Van Fraassen (2/1)
Race 3: Claiming $40,000 (N/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
I look toward the coupled entry, the 1, Fiesta Rose, and the 1A, Extreme Excess. I am willing to toss Fiesta Rose's last race, on April 4 at Tampa Bay Downs, as she was likely over her head in that race in stakes company. She totally backed up during a fast paced-duel, and was eased up late, beaten 48 1/2 lengths. Before that, she had never backed down during a duel before, never having an easy time on the lead, yet sporting a record of 5-2-3-0 in his previous races. Taking a sharp drop in class here, she should hang around till the end, and if she's not winning, she'll at least be close.
The 7, My Little Darlings, has the best last out figure of anyone in the field, with an 86, and also employs the riding services of the likable Jersey Joe Bravo. And while her last start looks impressive, having dueled the whole way around, only to miss by 3/4 of a length, that was at a mile, and the pace was not that fast. Who knows how she'll hold up against a faster pace at a shorter distance? Being the likely favorite, I'll look elsewhere, and take Fiesta Rose.
1- Fiesta Rose/1A- Extreme Excess (7/2)
7- My Little Darlings (2/1)
6- Offlee Sheikh (4/1)
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3 yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
This low-level maiden claiming race is a matter of who doesn't want it the least. On paper, the 2, Indian Fighter looks much the best. Two out of his last three starts tower over the rest of the field, with an 86 and an 84 figure. Furthermore, he's got speed from post position 2, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at 25% with shippers.
There is one issue of mild concern, however. Just two starts ago, Indian Fighter was racing in maiden special weight company at Laurel. After running a disappointing fifth there, he was dropped to the $50,000 maiden claiming level at Aqueduct. Understandable in that case. Why, then, after running well for that price, is he being dropped into a $25,000 maiden claiming? After all, there's no shortage of $50,000 maiden claimings at either Belmont or Monmouth. I mean, maybe I'm just reading too much into this, and he'll coast, but I'm not sure what kind of shape he's in if he's taking that much of a drop in class. Buyer beware, I say.
Should he disappoint, I look toward the 10, Splitter, who ran three increasingly-improving figures at Gulfstream over the winter, and the 8, Antoine's, who was solid at this level at Tampa over the winter.
2- Indian Fighter (2/1)
10- Splitter (5/1)
8- Antoine's (10/1)
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles
In my opinion, this race does not require much imagination, as the 2, Village Warrior, appears to be a standout. His races over the winter at Aqueduct were superior to anyone else's in the field, running figures of 100, 99, and 89. He also was a solid second in the Evening Attire Stakes back in February at Aqueduct. No one else in the field has been able to run that fast consistently. Being owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher doesn't hurt.
Because Village Warrior will likely be a big enough favorite that he'll be a bad win bet, I'll look toward horses to run under him to complete the exacta. My two big horses in that regard are the 4, Box Office, who consistently runs numbers in the high 80s, and is trained by the reliable Jason Servis, and the 7, Percussion, who runs similar figures.
2- Village Warrior (8/5)
7- Percussion (4/1)
4- Box Office (5/1)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
I will take the 1, Charlesbrecknridge, here. His first start at Keeneland, on April 17, was a promising one. He broke slowly, rushed himself back into contention, and only missed by 1/2 length, earning an 84 brisnet figure first out. Considering he ran that great first time out, and ran that kind of figure, it's likely that he'll improve with a good break. At a 5/1 morning line, the odds should be good.
The morning line favorite, at 2/1, is the 7, Comic Bird, who can certainly win, too--he ran two solid figures at Oaklawn over the winter, and had two impressive workouts at Delaware in preparation for this meet. He may also be the first Arkansas-bred to be the favorite in a race at Monmouth Park. Watch for him, too.
1- Charlesbrecknridge (5/1)
7- Comic Bird (2/1)
2- Rare (5/1)
Race 7: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up NJ-Bred, 6 Furlongs
This is a typical field for a New Jersey-bred allowance race: big, wide-open, and a race that I wish was in one of the pick 5s. Regardless, it was a difficult race to handicap, but I eventually settled on the 5, Behr in the Woods. In his last start, on April 18 at Parx, he made a solid closing rally at a similar level, finishing second by 3/4 of a length. The 92 figure he earned in that race marks the best in the field, and I would imagine he'll repeat that number here.
Also ones to watch are the 7, Oak Bluffs, who consistently runs numbers in the 80s, and is trained by the ever-dangerous Jamie Ness, and the 1, What the Chub, who will hope to duplicate his big gate-to-wire score at Penn National in his last start.
5- Behr in the Woods (7/2)
7- Oak Bluffs (5/2)
1- What the Chub (12/1)
Race 8: Claiming $20,000 (N/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The grass season begins with this race, an 11-horse affair to begin the late pick 5. This race appears to run through three horses--the 1, Stableford, the 9, Broadway Zen, and the 10, Pirradazis. I wound up going with Broadway Zen, who is the only one in the field to consistently show speed. Furthermore, his last two figures were an 80 and a 77, two of the best in the field. There's a good chance that he'll be able to take the lead early on and wire this bunch.
Stableford, the 1, has the best last out-figure in the race, with an 83, but he has come in the top three only once in his last eight starts. Pirradazis, meanwhile, has not been able to crack the 78 ceiling lately, and that may prove to be a cut below these.
9- Broadway Zen (3/1)
10- Pirradazis (9/2)
1- Stableford (4/1)
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
It's a solid field of allowance fillies and mares going six furlongs to kick off the late pick 4. While both the 3, Misszippityslewda, and the 4, Liberty Fuze. I decided to go with Misszippityslewda, who ran four tremendous figures at Aqueduct during the winter: 88, 92, 97 and 92. She's also trained by David Jacobson, who had a great season last year at Monmouth, and likely has cranked her--and all his horses--up for a Monmouth campaign this summer.
Also watch for the aforementioned Liberty Fuze, who ran two gret race over the winter at Aqueduct--including one win by 12 lengths--but may get involved in a duel with several of the speed horses from her outside. Misszippityslewda, on the other hand, is not totally speed-depedent, and may be able to sit off the duel and pick up the pieces late.
3- Misszippityslewda (8/5)
4- Liberty Fuze (2/1)
5- Casual Elegance (8/1)
Race 10: Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
If the 1A, Treasury Devil, draws in off the also-eligible list, he looks to be very tough to beat, despite his outside post position. His last three figures are an 85, 93, and 90, which are generally the best in the field by a longshot. Despite his long layoff, trainer Rudy Rodriguez hits at a solid 24% clip with horses off a 46-90 day break, which bodes well for a good comeback win.
Should Treasury Devil not draw in, I'll take the 6, Hyman Roth. His last race at Tampa was a textbook win--stalking the pace, and then blowing by for the win. His 86 number is the best last-out figure in the race, and the $16,000 should fit him very well. At 6/1, he should be a very good bet.
1A- Treasury Devil (4/1)
6- Hyman Roth (6/1)
9- Azure Dragon (6/1)
Race 11: Decathlon Stakes, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
It's the feature race on Opening Day, and drew a solid field of 14 hard-knocking sprinters. There's easily six or seven horses who can logically win this race, and whoever you like, you'll get a good price if the field stays intact.
After much waffling, I wound up going with the 12, Piquant. He's won three straight races, including the Peeping Tom Stakes at Aqueduct. His 99 figure is one of the best last-out number in the field, albeit by only a few digits. He may have an outside post, but that hasn't detracted him before--he won that Peeping Tom Stakes from post position 12. He's my pick to win the first stakes of the Monmouth season, and at 6/1, he'll be a good bet.
Others to consider include the 3, Moments Notiz, the venerable David Jacobson trainee who ran well last out at Aqueduct, the 4, Favorite Tale, who won the Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx last year, albeit over a very speed-favoring track, the 8, King Henry, who narrowly missed in a few races at Laurel, the 10, AP Indian, who is the most likely to take the early lead, and the 11, Javerre, who has the best last-out figure in the race, with a 102.
12- Piquant (6/1)
10- A.P. Indian (6/1)
4- Favorite Tale (5/1)
Race 12: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The nightcap on Opening Day is a wide-open race, too. I went with the 9, Kid Gallivan, who ran two great races at Gulfstream over the winter, and has some of the best numbers in the field. I am leery of the morning line favorite, the 4, Stevie's Moonshot, coming off a year layoff and taking a drop to maiden claiming from maiden special weight company. The 8, Strike 'Em Down, has run some great races, too, but is 0-10 lifetime, never a good sign.
9- Kid Gallivan (4/1)
8- Strike 'Em Down (5/1)
1- Moonlight Party (12/1)
The first race tomorrow is at 12:50 PM EDT, with the featured 11th race going off at about 5:43 PM. Good luck, everyone!
Tuesday, May 5, 2015
Opening Day Entries Come Out Tomorrow
Tomorrow marks three days until opening day at Monmouth Park for the 2015 season, and with that come the entries for Saturday's program. Last year, 121 horses entered 12 races, so let's hope that figure is exceeded this year.
Also, here's the latest opening day press release from Monmouth:
http://monmouthpark.com/News.aspx?id=9255
A few highlights:
Also, here's the latest opening day press release from Monmouth:
http://monmouthpark.com/News.aspx?id=9255
A few highlights:
- There will now be TWO pick 5s on the program--one on the first five races, one on the last five. Smart move, as the pick 5 as always been a popular wager.
- The Jersey Shore 6, a jackpot wager requiring the bettor to be the only one to pick all six winners to collect the whole pool, will now have a base wager of 20 cents.
- The track's simulcast signal will now be in high definition. Another great move that should be the standard for tracks these days.
- Frank Mirahmadi, of Oaklawn Park, will be the track's new announcer. He will take the place of Travis Stone, who left Monmouth after one season to become the voice of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. To hear a sample of Frank's work, check out him calling eventual Derby winner American Pharaoh win the Arkansas Derby this year.
- The parking lot will finally be paved.
It "shore" looks to be a tremendous year at Monmouth in 2015, which will hopefully be the start of a renaissance for the Shore's Greatest Stretch.
Monday, May 4, 2015
Opening Weekend at Monmouth
Opening Day at the Shore's Greatest Stretch, Monmouth Park, is drawing closer--only five days to go! Here's what to look forward to this Saturday and Sunday.
May 9- Of course, this is the big day, Opening Day. Everyone there will receive a free Miller Lite grandstand pass good until July 4 with paid admission, as well as the chance to enter to win one of 100 VIP season/parking passes for the entire season. There will also be 12 great races on tap, headlined by the $75,000 Decathalon Stakes, going six furlongs for older male sprinters.
May 10- Mother's Day at Monmouth will be marked by the annual Mother's Day brunch in either the dining terrace or the turf club. All mothers in attendance will receive a small gift, courtesy of the Monmouth Mall.
In addition, there will be several great prizes to be raffled off, a special gift for the first 1,000 ladies in attendance, and a great card of racing on tap as well.
It'll be a great opening weekend at Monmouth, to begin their 69th season of racing. Expect Opening Day entries to be out on Wednesday, and my analysis and selections to be up sometime Friday.
May 9- Of course, this is the big day, Opening Day. Everyone there will receive a free Miller Lite grandstand pass good until July 4 with paid admission, as well as the chance to enter to win one of 100 VIP season/parking passes for the entire season. There will also be 12 great races on tap, headlined by the $75,000 Decathalon Stakes, going six furlongs for older male sprinters.
May 10- Mother's Day at Monmouth will be marked by the annual Mother's Day brunch in either the dining terrace or the turf club. All mothers in attendance will receive a small gift, courtesy of the Monmouth Mall.
In addition, there will be several great prizes to be raffled off, a special gift for the first 1,000 ladies in attendance, and a great card of racing on tap as well.
It'll be a great opening weekend at Monmouth, to begin their 69th season of racing. Expect Opening Day entries to be out on Wednesday, and my analysis and selections to be up sometime Friday.
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